Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

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MattFL
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by MattFL »

EvK: @MattFL: Am happy you like the guide as well. Making the T1 well ordered (few isolated spearheads, no broken pockets etc.) simply has good rewards on T2, so I like to invest resources for this, one should also have T2 in mind. This being said, one can of course argue for less tight T1 encirclements and more rail-locks in the Proskurov area, for example. I experimented with this, but was not satisfied with the result. Cutting the rail may be sufficient to deny a rail-out from the Proskurov area, but not necessarily prevent disbanding, so you kill the unit shell, but not the equipment. Maybe one can reshuffle some resource allocations to achieve both, you are invited to post your alternative ideas if you like (all other readers are invited too)!


I agree with you 100% that it's not about Turn 1, rather I tend to view Turns 1-3 as almost a single continuous action. I also sort of encourage the Soviets to break pockets with units that are outside of the pockets (it's irresistible) because the net results are more dead soviets who could have gotten away as it's inevitable that the pockets will be sealed in this opening. The reason I don't break down the units at the expense of weaker pockets is I want max movement on Turn 2 and if the soviet cleverly hugs the panzer regiments, it can cost more than you'd like to reform them for the next drive on Turn 2. I break them down to seal the pockets permanently on Turn 2 as I know i'm going to have fuel on Turn 2 but more than likely won't have fuel on Turn 3, so leaving them broken down at the end of Turn 2 knowing they will need to rest up for fuel on Turn 3 makes sense to me. Additionally, to me it's more important that the width of the penetrations be maintained, particularly at the base where the infantry is so that the infantry can race east on Turns 2/3 (i.e. hex flipping). My end of Turn 2 goals are typically breaching Pskov, breaching the land bridge, and crossing the Dnepr rendering it useless. But this is of course totally dependent on what the Soviets do and as GHC you have to take what the soviets give. So if they stand and fight then expanding the encirclements takes priority over reaching certain terrain points. I also take my sweet time reducing the pockets to delay the units coming back into the game dedicating security units and maybe a corps or two total to reduce all pockets. Again, the priority is getting the infantry east to catch up to the panzers so that they can work together on Turn 4 or Turn 5 when the next major push is made. It's this next push on Turn 4/5 that is usually the one that is devastating. So for me, turns 1-3 are a continuous act and it all resets on Turn 4 where the soviet actions and deployment determine what comes next. In the end though these are pretty minor differences from a high level perspective. One part of your opening that I'm going to borrow from liberally is putting more emphasis on the retreat priorities to get units to go where you want them to go. My play style is such that I play it far more fast and loose than you do and if I slowed down a bit and was a bit more calculated, I'd probably net a few more units.


As for the Soviets disbanding, really I'm not sure that it's in their best interest to do so unless they are certain that units won't get away or won't at all hamper in any way the German onslaught. I suppose it would have value to salvage all of that equipment to fill out new units faster.


Here is my turn 1 from the current game I'm playing (please note that I didn't save each turn, so this is the soviet auto save at the end of Soviet 1/Start of GHC T2). I played this pretty quick and dirty as I'm just playing to refamiliarize myself with the game and it was never meant for sharing. It was less than ideal in several areas, most notably the failed attack on Riga (by TWO panzer divisions, one at a time though with pioneers, leadership etc.) and I think I attacked the units in Minsk just to see what would happen and they retreated out of ZOC lock. Otherwise i can't figure out where those units are. Also had a tough time clearing units in the south so didn't get to the ideal hex...But generally it's similar and on Turn 2 I want the infantry to seal the pockets in the south permanently by moving east along the lanes created while the armor expands the pockets to net more units. On Turn 2 I break down nearly all of the panzers/mot to secure things. I also take more of AGC south than I think you do. I find in turns 1-5 the tanks/mot are more useful in the south than the north. I also transfer the turn 1 fixed Group of orange units to AGC to make up for it. It really doesn't matter too much anyway as I like to link AGC and AGS back together as quickly as possible with most of that drive coming from AGS going north then AGC coming south so that I have massive power to assault Moscow. In general I tend to be a "good at pushing counters around" guy rather than someone who has totally mastered the ins and outs of this system. I do focus on MP/Distance to rails etc in supply detail and as GHC probably put more emphasis on that than other areas of micro management. And I clearly need to get better at the air war. I do perform fighter sweeps as GHC, but that's about the extent of it.

I'm currently in the middle of Turn 9 and probably won't finish because there are pretty much no worlds left to conquer so it's becoming a waste of time. This was played with +1 in effect, so pocket breaking is a bit easier. Of course it's against the AI, so forming new pockets are gimme's.

Overall, your guide is just superb. I can feel SHC players gnashing teeth as with this guide, just about every game will start with this super Lvov type opening. Really, if just a few Russian counters were repositioned just a little bit, the zoc locking west of Zhitomir could probably be eliminated and I don't think that would necessarily be a bad thing.... Even though this opening is great, I still think the soviets can withstand it and go on to win if they don't compound the opening by trying to fight on Turns 4/5 I the center or south. Fight in the north, retreat out of range in the center and south and let distance do it's work while strength is regained.

Start of GT2.
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Turn 9 in Progress when i retire the game.
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MattFL
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by MattFL »

Also, on your google drive EvK, do you have the save at the end of the GHC turn? Would like to look at it from the Russian side and I just don't have the strength to play another full Turn 1 as GHC just so I can look at it from the Russian side. If yes, please advise which file it is (.03).

Thanks!
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joelmar
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by joelmar »

EvK: Found your spreadsheet with the supply calculations, interesting reference, thanks. Still have to work things out a bit, but from what I understand a good general guideline for airbases is to keep them as much as possible within 10 hexes and the less MP possible from the railhead, with the exception of one to serve as staging base nearer to the front with units with low supply needs like fighters or dive bombers, and keeping the higher ID of that front empty for use in transfers and try to advance only a couple airbases each turn, that should do for most situations I think and will be as simple as I can think of. The Slovak and Rumanian airbases make things easier in the south for the Kabuki. About Hube I would like to add that the decision to bring him out of Stalingrad was IMO one of Hitler's very few good decisions after taking overall and complete command of the German armed forces at the end of 1941... don't want any confusion on where I stand about the man!

821Bobo: thanks for the advice, but after 2 months of heavy playing I am just beginning to know and understand the Axis forces to my satisfaction, so I don't have the courage for in depth learning of the Soviets at the moment. But yeah, I will get to them later on for sure :-)

For WitE2 and Airbase management, I also read that in a post about WitE2. Great news. I will most probably try WitW sometimes in the future as that looks quite interesting too... but for now... the East!
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EwaldvonKleist
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by EwaldvonKleist »

@MattFL: There are no saves of a complete practice run under 1.11.03, only the North/Centre part I think. But have a look at the test runs under 1.10.00 and 1.11.01 which are complete and step by step (without admin/air base bombing/SU attachement and all the other fiddly stuff of course).

Re your opening, fine for a practice run after some absence! It looks like a human player could cause some cut-offs. Regarding Minsk, the Ai can warp units around, that is how they escaped from Minsk.

Btw. I counsel to have a second look at the location of the Dnepr and Smolensk on your map :P


@Joelmar: Thanks for the explanation regarding Hube.

Regards
EvK
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821Bobo
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by 821Bobo »

Regarding that opening basically what EvK said. You won't get away with this against decent human opponent. Most of the pockets can be broken.
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by MattFL »

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo

Regarding that opening basically what EvK said. You won't get away with this against decent human opponent. Most of the pockets can be broken.



A few points, remember, this is shown AFTER soviet T1 (start of GHC T2) so the Soviets have already moved (granted, AI Moved!). So the airborne units in the north which on this map could break the pocket have already tried to break the pocket. I don't have a save at the end of my Turn 1 because I wasn't saving, just playing and the SHC would auto save, not GHC. I can't say if the pockets would be broken or not as I don't have the end GHC T1 to review to show Russian positions at that time or hex control. But....as I also said, I don't really care if the pockets are broken and if they are broken from units outside the pockets, all the better, that's just more units that i'll encircle on T2. I don't finalize the pockets until end of GHC T2. So I will absolutely get away with it against even the best soviet human opponent becuase there isn't anything they can do to stop me from expanding and finalizing the pockets on T2 which is really my objective per my text above the maps.


I was really only showing this becuase the concepts are the same but my priorities are a bit different than EvK. I prioritize max movement on T2, not 100% sealing the pockets on T1, and as such i don't break down nearly as many Pz/Mot divisions even though in doing so i could shore up the pockets a lot more.






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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by MattFL »

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

@MattFL: There are no saves of a complete practice run under 1.11.03, only the North/Centre part I think. But have a look at the test runs under 1.10.00 and 1.11.01 which are complete and step by step (without admin/air base bombing/SU attachement and all the other fiddly stuff of course).

Re your opening, fine for a practice run after some absence! It looks like a human player could cause some cut-offs. Regarding Minsk, the Ai can warp units around, that is how they escaped from Minsk.

Btw. I counsel to have a second look at the location of the Dnepr and Smolensk on your map :P


@Joelmar: Thanks for the explanation regarding Hube.

Regards
EvK

Thanks, I'll take a look at them. As much as I enjoy playing GHC (though I've played many games as both sides), I think what will be more challenging/interesting will be to devise a soviet response to openings such as yours. So something of a look at this from the other side for SHC players on how best to maximize what's not trapped on Turns say 1-5, particularly with the goal of avoiding the Turn 5 onslaught that seemed to be the real cause of the end of your two run throughs of this. Will be a good mental exercise as well as help me refamiliarize myself with the SHC response capabilities after years not playing.


Yes, my panzers move so quickly that they reached Smolensk on Turn 1 and using clever Air Transfer I was able to breach the Dnepr with Army Group North. Amazing eh? [:)]
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821Bobo
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by 821Bobo »

Yes its hard to tell because AI already moved but best way how to practise T1 is playing against yourself. That way you will test if the pockets are safe.
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by MattFL »

Yes its hard to tell because AI already moved but best way how to practise T1 is playing against yourself. That way you will test if the pockets are safe.


I did that a little bit before this game, but this particular game was meant to be my full AI game run through to prep myself for playing head to head again against good players here. Haven't played since 1.07..... So it was more a game about mechanics, supply, organizing the armies, etc. just to remember how it all works. And really, I still don't do most of those things as well as I used to and it's challenging to come to grips with the differences between when I used to play and now. Most likely only more games and perhaps an ass whipping or two will get me back to where I was. Seems much has changed in the last 4 years....
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by joelmar »

BTW, for the historically oriented people, the super LVOV pocket opening could be equated to the idea that Hitler had always been more in favor of putting the prime objectives in the south and the Donbas and that Barbarossa was a compromise he did with OKH, who wanted to make Moscow the prime objective of the campaign. So if Hitler had been solely in charge in 1941 as he did 1942 onwards, there's a strong probability that at least a panzer corps and more air groups would have been affected directly to AGS from the beginning.
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by 821Bobo »

But it doesn't take into account that Soviets were better prepared and gave better fight in south.
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide f or Axis players

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

iii) Hardluckyetagain fb.asp?m=4267387 Very effective in the South with moderate cost to the North and Centre.

I believe this would be just as good if not better than the example that you showed from me. This link has the added benefit of the Air War shown in better detail. tm.asp?m=4426690&mpage=2&key=
German Turn 1 opening moves. The post that keeps on giving https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 1&t=390004
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

ORIGINAL: 821Bobo

Regarding that opening basically what EvK said. You won't get away with this against decent human opponent. Most of the pockets can be broken.

I have found that allowing the Soviets freedom of movement in some of these pockets could be detrimental to the Germans with a pocket open(although the one in the South was intentionally left open it looks like in EvK's example). That is why if you look at my links that EvK kindly posted you will see, in the South especially, that I try and lock Soviet movement down with broken down division into Regiments to restrict movement to just a hex. Even in over 13+ games as the Germans using this opening I never had a single Soviet open a single pocket by me limiting the Soviet movement. Overall this is an excellent writeup and can advance a beginning player to intermediate level pretty quick if they understand the principals behind all that EvK has written here. Excellent job Evk.
German Turn 1 opening moves. The post that keeps on giving https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 1&t=390004
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide for Axis player

Post by joelmar »

821Bobo: But it doesn't take into account that Soviets were better prepared and gave better fight in south.

maybe if Rundstedt had disposed of another panzer corps or 2, more planes and crack troops, that perception of the soviets being better prepared and fighting better in the south would have been much less. One thing is certain, if Hitler had had 100% his way, things would have been exactly like that. And seeing how Panzer Group 2 comes really fast to the end of its tether in the game following historic timeline and routes, as was also pretty much the case in real life, for once it might have been the better decision, get to Kiev fast and attack north to link up with Pz Gr 3 instead of the opposite.

HYLA: that AAR is really good, it's been in my bookmarks for a few weeks, learned a few tricks in there. Thanks.

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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide f or Axis players

Post by MattFL »

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

iii) Hardluckyetagain fb.asp?m=4267387 Very effective in the South with moderate cost to the North and Centre.

I believe this would be just as good if not better than the example that you showed from me. This link has the added benefit of the Air War shown in better detail. tm.asp?m=4426690&mpage=2&key=

Certainly a good opening for sure, but it's overkill in the south as all of the units you get are dead anyway with fewer units comitted and you fail to deal with the units around Minsk which to me is a non-starter. Just gotta have those guys.

Thanks for sharing that as it's really helpful seeing in detail how you manage the air war. I really need to start paying more attention to that....
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide f or Axis players

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

ORIGINAL: MattFL

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain
ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

iii) Hardluckyetagain fb.asp?m=4267387 Very effective in the South with moderate cost to the North and Centre.

I believe this would be just as good if not better than the example that you showed from me. This link has the added benefit of the Air War shown in better detail. tm.asp?m=4426690&mpage=2&key=

Certainly a good opening for sure, but it's overkill in the south as all of the units you get are dead anyway with fewer units comitted and you fail to deal with the units around Minsk which to me is a non-starter. Just gotta have those guys.

Thanks for sharing that as it's really helpful seeing in detail how you manage the air war. I really need to start paying more attention to that....

A hungry German player ;-) Gotta love the attitude. (it is a good thing btw)
German Turn 1 opening moves. The post that keeps on giving https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 1&t=390004
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide f or Axis players

Post by EwaldvonKleist »

Combined reply @ all: The pockets in the opening posted are designed to hold assuming usual luck distribution and the 1st turn MP of Soviet units. I just avoid investing resources on hugging Sovs when it is not necessary due to the MP allowance Soviet units get on T1. Making more ZOC locks in the South can be done as shown in HLYAs AARs but you lose a not insignificant number of unit kills in the Centre and PG3 has to take a detour Southeast instead of East OR you have to accept a leaky centre pocket and cut offs (Psycho0 or mktours way IIRC) from the approaches I have seen so far. Only MichaelTs old Super Lvov could have both with some changes IMO but that was under old ruleset before T1 Axis regiment MP rules were nerfed (Axis regiment MP rules currently are harder on T1/T2 than for the rest of the game. I am not complaining but it is interesting to know).

Note that there likely is further optimisation possible for my opening in the South even if we set force distribution North-South as constant. It has been developed for 1.10.00 and the new motorized Cav division added in 1.11.00 is maybe able to swap position with other mot units for more efficient unit use. I just ran out of interest to invest even more time in opening development but am always interested if someone has new ideas.

I will not have the time for many in-detail reply's now and in the coming weeks so excuse in advance if answering here takes time/is brief :-)
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EvK
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide f or Axis players

Post by HardLuckYetAgain »

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Combined reply @ all: The pockets in the opening posted are designed to hold assuming usual luck distribution and the 1st turn MP of Soviet units. I just avoid investing resources on hugging Sovs when it is not necessary due to the MP allowance Soviet units get on T1. Making more ZOC locks in the South can be done as shown in HLYAs AARs but you lose a not insignificant number of unit kills in the Centre and PG3 has to take a detour Southeast instead of East OR you have to accept a leaky centre pocket and cut offs (Psycho0 or mktours way IIRC) from the approaches I have seen so far. Only MichaelTs old Super Lvov could have both with some changes IMO but that was under old ruleset before T1 Axis regiment MP rules were nerfed (Axis regiment MP rules currently are harder on T1/T2 than for the rest of the game. I am not complaining but it is interesting to know).

The "not insignificant number of unit kills in the center" equals 4 units "surrounded" in the center. The rest either routed or shattered. I get that and not a bad play at all. Totally up to the person playing Germans on how they want to handle their game when using this guide.

The snapshot below has in RED the large open Lvov pocket not restricting the Soviet movement. Blue is the units I surround turn 1 in my AAR. To me to play around down south by giving Soviets move capability with their units you are asking for trouble as I mentioned earlier. There is nothing wrong with your tactic & I get why you did such a move for the South. I am just pointing out it could become a little messy if you allow the Soviets to move to others who may be reading this and not realize it. Granted the Germans can contain this pretty easily, but just how much time will the Germans invest to do that. To me setting up to immediately eliminate these extra units turn 2 far outweigh doing "Round up" turn 2 in the south by the Germans with the possibility of a unit routing totally out of this containment. (Most Armor and Mech units of the Soviets are brittle and may route pretty easily if the attacks are done incorrectly) So you could end up with a wash of what you surrounded in the center. Again neither side is wrong or right. Just a matter of opinion which has gotten totally into the "over" optimization phase of the game ;-)

I will post my pictures of my game against Beender where he had a similar pocket open like yours Evk I circled in RED. Took Beender till turn 4 to clean up.



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German Turn 1 opening moves. The post that keeps on giving https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/view ... 1&t=390004
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide f or Axis players

Post by MattFL »

HYLA, I definitely agree with your comment above. The blue ideally should be encircled while the guys to the east are simply ZOC locked to prevent their escape. At least that's how I do it... I didn't notice this before.
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RE: Do you want total war? An AAR-Guide f or Axis players

Post by EwaldvonKleist »

@HLYA: We do not need to discuss if it is nice to have the unit in the blue circle encircled on T1 and the one in the red box hugged tightly. No debate necessary and I would gladly take this if it is for free. But it is not and the question always comes down to if it is worth the cost to the Centre/Northern Centre.

You say that the difference is 4 units "surrounded" in the Centre. The number must be somewhat put into context. There are two possible definitions of "surrounded" here, if you mean out of supply the number is true according to the screenshots, although some units routed instead of retreated so my kills are is a bit lower than on average. Also note that there is an extra panzer div South of Rovno which does not seem to be trapped by your opening (I think it can be trapped while preserving the overall characteristic of your opening but am not sure and have not worked out the details).

If one means "surrounded=out of supply and/or trapped for T2 encirclement", which IMO is the more useful definition (the Soviet player in the summer will not really care if his unit has been encircled on T1 or just ZOC-locked for T2 encirclement), you give away considerably more with your opening in the North/Centre than 4 units.

Below is a map showing the differences. I made it quickly from memeory as WitE is not on the hard drive anymore but it should be correct. Ignore the markings on the air fields, it is an old map.

Dark Blue are units trapped by opening EvK but not opening HLYA. Orange is the unit trapped by opening HLYA but not opening EvK. Light blue is a unit which I think routs out in most cases in opening HLYA but not in opening EvK.
Green are units which are sometimes trapped by opening EvK but never by opening HLYA, it depends on rout results/if the riga attack succeeds immediately. Purple are units which are attacked with good chance to rout (with an existent, but small chance to trap them in T2) in opening EvK but not opening HLYA.
Image


If you do the counting, there is a difference of 8 blue units, one orange unit, one light blue unit, and 4 green units.

So if the opening works as planned, opening EvK has a 7 unit advantage for sure, +1 very likely and +4 with moderate chances depending on RNG. Assuming bad but not terrible luck, I say 8 units or 15 command points. For that advantage I have no problem to trade some hugging of Soviet units in the South. The purple units are not counted at all as there is too much RNG involved.

The risky part is if the ZOC locking on the Eastern side can be opened by counterattacks. There is a certain chance and I know and accept that risk. But even if the Soviets open it up a bit, they will have expended MPs for the attacks and struggle to move far away to disband, railing out is even more unlikely.

What your opening has is more safety clearance. But so far it has worked for me in tests and server game, even if the sample size is not that big.

What happened on T2 and onwards can be found in the Total war-AAR in the AAR section, the link is in the first post of this thread.

You drew parallels to the beender game. Without doubt there is some vulnerability for counterattacks, but different from beenders opening, there are less gaps/more split ups so one can not simply walk through without combat.
For illustration, here is a resurrected part of your deleted AAR (google cache), beenders Southern T1.
Image

Much of the challenges for beender came from opening of the Lvov pocket on T1, opening EvK has some precautions to make this more difficult (has better unit placement on Rumanian border).


All comments assume no +1 as in your AARs, with +1 I would play many things different and go back to the drawing table.


I think both for your all South approach and for more balanced ones unit distribution wise and mixed breeds of both there is some space for further improvement, I have lost interest in investing time to this but am always interested in other approaches by others/you.

Regards
EvK

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