Odds calculations are meaningless

[havoc1371]

The odds calculations for combat are meaningless in the game. I've seen comments and YouTube videos advocating the need for 8-1 odds or better to have a chance of winning, but that doesn't really mean anything as I've made attacks at 30-1 and still lost. In what universe is 8-1 odds against your opponent poor odds?! That 30-1 can still fail? Granted in epic events such as Thermopylae, defenders managed to defeat their opponents for a time, but this is pretty out there. There doesn't seem to be any logic to this. I've surrounded enemy formations and watched them grow in computed firepower. Is there a clear explanation of this combat odds system somewhere that makes any sense?

[Nsf665]

It depends a lot on recon and what you actually see vs what will uncover when the fight starts.
If your odds are much higher, you will probably win the battle, but still its not granted. It should serve more as helper tool and less as an indicator I think.
At least I'm using it like that. Definitely very useful early > mid game, when it helps which fights to pick.

[havoc1371]

Results of a 13-1 attack on a surrounded force that I lost.

[havoc1371]

It depends a lot on recon and what you actually see vs what will uncover when the fight starts.
If your odds are much higher, you will probably win the battle, but still its not granted. It should serve more as helper tool and less as an indicator I think.
At least I'm using it like that. Definitely very useful early > mid game, when it helps which fights to pick.

A tool that is that erratic is not much help when you can surround an attack with predicted 30-1 and still lose. It's not a prediction, its a SWAG. I don't get how "recon" works in this game I guess, since revealing all the hexes surrounding an enemy force still allows it to multiply in the hex that is surrounded.

[mroyer]

I like how the odds work. I think of it as an assessment, by my staff, of the current situation. But it's only an assessment, a best guess, based on various intelligence and recon info at hand and that's never perfect. It's a good thing that it's more erratic at lower recon levels. No leader in history ever had perfect pre-assessment of a battle's outcome, so this is a more realistic model of what confronts real-life leaders, imo.

I would almost argue that Vic should get rid of the big odds-ratio numbers altogether and just give a green-yellow-red gut feel for the chances of success.

[Thrake]

If you want reliable odds you want 400 recon, ie. concentrate your forces to have enough passive recon or use recon planes.

I also like the current system, it gives an idea of how good/bad the situation is, given the inacurate data available. High odds at low recon really don't mean much.

[eddieballgame]

Yes, the 'ODDS' can go against you...even if you appear to be favored. Recon is everything in this game (as it should be in most war-like games). Also, Entrenchment/Terrain heavily affects how successful one will be during an attack.
There is a lot more to pay attention to via the Offensive & Defensive Mods panels to help assess your chances, (& do not ignore 'Readiness'); as well as being able to view the stats of the enemy.
Gambling/relying on just the 'ODDS' number, is not recommended...I have learned that the hard way.
Back to 'Recon'; Buggies are great & if you desire, you can sacrifice a cheap unit by attacking...gaining more, important, recon.