Sigizmund started of with a somewhat modified move against Grodno and an attack vs the Serbian corps instead of going for Belgrade.
So what to do in the first Entente move in this situation? As I already mentioned in previous threads, Entente early game for me is 100% opportunism and I usually do that in three steps:
1) Scouting
2) Counting
3) Kicking the Kaiser in the nether regions (if possible)
If Germany sells all research, they can operate 7 corps on turn 1. I can see 4 corps that were definitely operated (3 Balkans, 1 Galicia). Most likely Sigizmund kept his cannon research and only sold the other 2, giving him 4 operational movements.
In East Prussia all Inf and Cav are accounted for in the Johannisburg-Grodno area, the corps that starts near Posen defends Kattowitz and the corps from Allenstein has moved forward a bit. This means I see one guaranteed and one very likely weak spot.
Thorn is only defended by a lone str 8 detachment. The trick here is that all towns, cities and fortified towns (but NOT proper fortresses) loose their defensive bonus if they are completely surrounded. Since there's no ZoC around Thorn I surround it with the nearest 6 Russians and take it with minor losses.
The second weak spot is that Königsberg is probably empty and the approach is only guarded by another str 8 detachment. So I used the 3 corps near Wilna to clear the way and take Königsberg with the guard cav. Credit for that move goes to ThisEndUp btw, he came up with it during the Montenegro gambit tests.
In Serbia it's obvious that I'm doomed in the long run. To make it as costly and time consuming as possible I just run away for the mountains.
Britain is triggered by German naval movements, most likely subs and DDs going for Halifax. Since the DDs will surely protect the flotilla with naval mines I have 2 choices: rush there and risk damage to my ships or wait for a sub to neutralize the naval mines and risk some damage to the Halifax (resource) mines. I decide to do the latter.
Btw, the trigger areas for Britain can be circumnavigated (details in mdsmalls thread here: https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=5041250 ). You'll need a bit longer to the target, but Britain will stay neutral longer and the Entente player will not be automatically alerted.
