Fall Grau 2.27 Ben (Axis) versus Jeremy

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Again, what about my garrison question? Cities in the South may not have warranted it at that time. But, suppose the Axis captured New York, Boston, Chicago, or Los Angeles? Shouldn't they require garrisons? Shouldn't St. Louis?

Not sure it will ever get done but it might be an interesting idea. When the scenario was first made and for a significant time after that this sort of thing was not feasible as there where only 500 events and it was already a case of choosing which elements to swap out as more important elements came to light, plus there the need to guard the rail lines gives one a sort of abstract example of garrisoning the US. Obviously not the same as plopping a unit into the big cities but the Axis player is thinking about what they must and what they can spare for garrison duties. It effects what they land with their limited sea lift and plays a part in draining offencive operations as units get peeled off to guard the rear.

If it where to be implemented now I'd have a trigger upon capturing a city that brought in a nearly empty Garrison Division that would be filled out with replacements. Say a Brigade for smaller industrial cities and a Division for the larger cities. Obviously these would not be able to move - like the American Reserve Divisions they would be in garrison mode.

[golden delicious]

Finally, Guatemala is mostly quite this turn. I think Ben might have decided to cancel the offensive here because the defenses are too strong?

It's possible that I just forgot about it that turn- it happens- but in truth the primary objective of this offensive was to keep these Mexican troops in place so they didn't wind up reinforcing Monterrey. With the Monterrey offensive launched this becomes irrelevant.

[golden delicious]

Turn 27:
More of a modest reaction from Jeremy in Illinois this turn; looks like he's trying to defend a more manageable position rather than furiously counterattacking, but he hasn't actually pulled back. Again, a number of key positions fall readily to RBC and I'm well placed to cut off various extremities of the Allied position, while continuing to work on two main drives; western Illinois and western Indiana.

Northern Mexico is good. Jeremy was content to manoeuvre odd units to put two Italian motorised divisions out of supply, but persists in holding Monterrey itself (at least five divisions). I throw troops around on both flanks and hope to bag the whole lot, while also attacking the most exposed positions here. Meanwhile, the majority of my mobile troops plunge into the Mexican interior: SS Hitler Jugend ends the turn four hexes from Tampico- though this is a bit reckless and I feel sure Jeremy will put the unit out of supply on his turn. I'm a little nervous that this won't be enough so I add a third SS division here this turn. On the broader western front, I've sort of decided I want to push for the Pacific, and to facilitate this I start moving my Plains screen forward again, feeding in a couple of divisions released from the siege of Tulsa.

For some reason, Jeremy decided to resume action in Ontario. OK I guess I can beat up your troops a bit more? I don't see what he hopes to achieve here unless he thinks more attrition actually favours him, or that I have something better to do with the half dozen divisions I have in reserve here (hint: I don't).

Another brutal turn for the Allies. Five or six divisions are sliced off from the front and devoured. A Canadian armoured division evaporates on the line. Two (unsupplied) heavy armoured brigades evaporate near Springfield. The Allied flank around Indianapolis is effectively wiped out, with a number of divisions destroyed and the three divisions remaining on the line out of supply: I'm adjacent to the city itself in three hexes. My own losses are tremendous, too, of course, and I no longer have quite the inexhaustible pool of Heavy Rifle Squads that I was boasting earlier in the scenario (about 2,000 on hand at the start of the turn). Armour is, I think, another matter, because I lost quite a few panzer divisions in the early going. Interestingly, I'm now starting to come into the rear of the great static line that Jeremy drew along the Applachians earlier in the scenario. At some point he'll need to pull this force (about 11 divisions) back to the Ohio.

[Cutting this entry here as the next bit is two dense paragraphs on strategy]

The shattered remains of the Allied army of the centre

FG27.png (1.19 MiB) Viewed 1175 times

[golden delicious]

Ben pontificates on strategy post turn 27:

Having clearly executed my original plan, I've been thinking a bit about strategy for the next phase of the scenario. Playing this out in my head, I should be able to continue smashing the Allied armies in the plain between the Ohio and the Great Lakes. Let's suppose I'm able to secure this whole area by turn 40 and Jeremy then fortifies the Applachian foothills west of Pittsburgh: this doesn't actually constitute an automatic victory. [I am really covering my bases here and Jeremy is substantially right and I'm wrong on this] Taking all the cities in this area plus Monterrey actually leaves the Allies on an adequate 74% replacements for turn 50. The US will, however, be cut in two. I think the northeast will be very difficult to break into because of the difficult terrain in western Pennsylvania, and as such my intention is to make this my stopline and fight on the defensive here once it's reached, and focus on overwhelming the west. My approach for this will be 1) take Tampico to provide supply and anchorages in central Mexico 2) take Mexico City 3) advance to the Gulf of California. This puts all of Mexico down to 20% supply from Guatemala City, assuming he still holds that (though I expect Jeremy will largely evacuate before he lets this happen) 4) advance to San Diego and open an anchorage to allow the Japanese ashore 5) encircle or capture Los Angeles. This will actually be the last full supply point in the west (assuming I have Chicago), leaving the remaining Allied forces here on 25% of base supply (from the secondary supply points at Spokane, Cheyenne and Winnipeg), and effectively crippled.

The key thing about all this is clear I can't wait until turn 50 to launch this operation, and indeed I haven't. I hope to open the anchorage at Tampico in the next couple of turns and once I have this I should be able to land overwhelming quantities of German troops and storm Mexico City by turn 35 or so. I'm also already resuming my general move west, but this is a huge distance to cover: 75 hexes just to the Gulf of Mexico and I've only covered 30 so far. I have eight German mechanised divisions uncommitted, let's say two go to Tampico, two to Illinois and the remaining four are reserved for the west, landing from about turn 32 onwards. If I shoot for Albuquerque before turn 40 with this force, then once I have Mexico City I can have two moderately powerful drives aimed at the Gulf of California from roughly Albuquerque and El Paso- though it will take three turns just to redeploy mechanised divisions from Mexico City to El Paso. If I start these combined drives around turn 40 it should be difficult for the Allies to oppose me and I may be able to reach the Gulf of California about turn 45. That will make the next step easier as I can ignore my southern flank and concentrate on pushing directly west into California, perhaps getting the critical Pacific coast anchorage around turn 50. My railhead of course will be way back at Phoenix or something...

Axis outline for turns 30-50... not necessarily very realistic or relevant.
Red: advances to present
Blue: plan to turn 35
Purple: plan to turn 45
Black: plan to turn 50

FG27 Strategy.png (1.4 MiB) Viewed 1173 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 27
The situation continues to deteriorate with Ben just beginning to liquidate my main army. From most other positions I would be retreating but from this position I just don’t think there is a reasonable way to retreat. Your just uncovering America’s vitals and making the situation worse.

At this stage I am pretty sure I’m beat but my line is increasingly Canadians and the National Guard. Both of which have a strong ability to replace themselves (though without a lot of their support equipment which really makes them less effective). Winter is coming – maybe that slows Ben’s ability to do breakthroughs? Now I will stress I think this is a long shot. I’ve been here before and it does not work. It is just that I don’t see any alternative but to try a failed strategy yet again.

This would be a lot more effective if Ben was not finding ways to get to my Industrial cities. I was hoping that his almost singular focus on one part of the map would make it so at least the Allied Replacement Rate could recover but it seems like he has begun to pay attention to ones not in the immediate vicinity of Illinois recently.

The loss rating swings 15 points this turn and that is not only the highest rate in this match for one turn but is completely unsustainable for my Allies. I pass two numbers I think are important here and both strongly favour the Axis. One is the spread passes 100 points. That is generally a pretty sure sign that the situation is favouring the Axis by a fair bit. I also pass 180 loss rating for the Allies. I’ve never seen the Allies recover if they have taken that much in losses in the early game. Until we get into turns 40 and beyond the Allies just don’t have enough units to really keep fighting if this much of their army has been destroyed.

Still, I am able to patch the line together with the newly arrived National Guard and even manage to withdraw 3 of the beaten-up Armoured Divisions off the line. I have to get some kind of an armoured Reserve back together – though I’ll actually be surprised if I am not forced to use them on the front line next turn. I did manage to scrape another 5 Infantry Divisions and a full strength Brigade together to throw into the line next turn so if Ben ever has a turn where he does not initiate 50 attacks against my line maybe I can put Humpty Dumpty back together again… However, Ben killed the SCAANA (Supreme Command Allied Armies North America) unit this turn. That means I’ll suffer a shock penalty next turn so I should expect things to be very, very bad in reality.

[EDIT – I’ll shortly find out that actually SCANNA has become essentially cosmetic. It used to cause a shock penalty for the Allies but that effect has been removed]

Because the line can no longer be trusted at all I’m retreating with all the Corp HQs. Those left on, or even near, the line will probably be destroyed with very detrimental effects for the entire Corp. It is unfortunate because they are full of artillery which is nice on the defense but not worth risking as the situation deteriorates.

I abandon Monterrey this turn with anything that can get away. Sadly, I moved the HQ first and it bumped into an Italian unit during the retreat. I abandon Tampico as well as Ben never attempts to engage Monterrey with the powerful German Mechanized Divisions but is instead taking them and anything fast among the Italians and making a headlong dash to the south. Ben’s hoping to get Mexico City and I don’t have much to defend it with, so I am scrambling to dig something up. If I can stop this coup de main then I think Ben’s situation will deteriorate here as Mexican Irregulars gather and start trying to cut off the long tenuous supply line north.

Guatemala is mostly quite while Ben and I trade blows in front of Toronto though he has been gathering some extra units from stripping the lines. I’m stripping the line too but my forces mostly go to Illinois.

Finally, there is a general withdrawal in the south by the old flank line in the Battle north of Huntsville. Here the real reason is because Ben’s line in Illinois is now behind mine, and I am withdrawing to keep the flanks lined up.

At this point the line is mainly National Guard and Canadians since these are my forces that still have replacements available.

Fall Grau JB 27.jpg (1.55 MiB) Viewed 1141 times

[golden delicious]

Turn 28:
No- no response apparent outside Tampico. SS Hitler Jugend approaches the city and... wow, he didn't feel it necessary to stop me getting the anchorages here? OK, I guess I'll dump a whole corps of German infantry into the hex, then. I encounter a lone division of irregulars further west on the road to Mexico City, and SS Horst Wessel blasts it aside. It's still twelve hexes by road to Mexico City from here, but as I'm able to debark strong forces at Tampico immediately, there really should be no problem taking the place. Jeremy also abandons Monterrey this turn, though three divisions are trapped in the city (besides the garrison). I've got plenty of infantry and artillery here so will assault immediately. With Mexico apparently sorted, I shift things around a bit to the north: I abandon the rail spur in the direction of Monterrey in favour of a more directly westward route, and SS Hohenstaufen, originally alloted to Mexico, will join a scratch force aimed at Albuquerque: besides this division it'll consist of two Italian and four German infantry divisions currently in Oklahoma and North Texas. Enough, at least, to make Jeremy engage me but perhaps not enough on its own to force the issue.

Jeremy saw the same problem as I did in the east, and pulled back his line between Asheville, NC and Louisville, KY. This saves him some troops but it shortens my line, too. In theory I could attempt to press his new line before it solidifies but I have no particular desire to extend my operations to eastern Kentucky- actually I expect Jeremy to pull back again in due course as there's a better defensive line further back, on the Ohio and through the mountains of West Virginia. The main front is the same as last turn: a new (though not exactly fresh) National Guard Army shows up and closes the gaps in the line, but the Allied line remains weak. To help share the burden of casualties now falling quite heavily on the German infantry, I bring over a corps of Romanians who will be used to reduce Indianapolis once I have it in my grip. Five German infantry divisions and two HQs go to Tampico and six Hungarian divisions land to add to the mixed force heading west

A fine turn. I get Monterrey and Tampico both without much difficulty. I've essentially broken out either side of Indianapolis, destroying most of the Allied line here. The situation in Illinois is less completely positive as my supply situation is not so good and Jeremy has more of his regulars here, but this is merely slow progress rather than a dead end, and there's a breach two hexes wide which threatens to link up with the westerly of the two breakthroughs in Indiana to trap the whole centre of the Allied line (though at this point that's only 4 or 5 divisions anyway, most of them in extremely bad condition).

Of course Jeremy is still engaging in the back-and-forth in Ontario. As I was saying two turns ago, he needs to get four of five divisions each out of the northeast and northern Missouri, likely abandon the totally untenable and useless position he has between the Mississippi and Ohio rivers and figure out what can be stripped from the Pacific Coast. Who cares if I get Toronto? What does it matter if I may be able to land in Washington State? Why should it matter if I get over the Missouri? I'm in the process of destroying the whole Allied army in the centre of the map. When it's gone, there's nothing between me and Chicago and Detroit. To add to the misery, the pre-invasion Allied stockpile ran out this turn giving the Allies a supply level as low as mine, and the Allied air force is in dire straits: my air superiority is 8-1.

I think this turn's events make reaching Lake Michigan a matter of when not if. Likewise the capture of Tampico makes taking Mexico City inevitable as most of next turn's reinforcements will be dropped here. This will allow me to focus more on accelerating my timetable for reaching the Pacific. If I reach Albuquerque around turn 35 and take the city soon after, that makes the Gulf of California turn 40 and San Diego 45... all fairly theoretical, but this means I'll start landing the Japanese just around the time I run out of European troops to ship.

The sudden fall of Tampico makes Mexico City extremely vulnerable

FG28.png (1001.62 KiB) Viewed 1117 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 28
Argh… really game – you won’t cut me even one break! First time this game I am swearing at the computer. I mean I am unhappy that Ben is kicking my ass but here I am angry at the game. The gist is Ben gets a little too far forward with a Panzer Division in his massive break out in Illinois. I finally have an opportunity to cut one of his spear heads off. Maybe help restore the flank a bit and I even husbanded a bit of an armoured reserve despite the disaster playing out. Well, it gets right to that point where I am most vulnerable in this operation and then I fail a proficiency check. This is the first time in the match I really took a risk like this. I just did not have anything left to backstop things and went all in – and punished. So frustrating.

I mean I don’t see how Ben does not just take my vulnerable position and cut off this whole flank and I have no idea how I could put it back together again next turn when he does that. It is weak as it stands but if this had worked it would have helped.

Up until this point this turn had not been so too bad. I thought half my units would be in reorg from the loss of SCANNA but only a few were. Less than normal as Ben only initiated 50 attacks this turn and failed to cut off too much (my loss rate only rises by a small amount for the first time in four turns).

I manage to scrape together another 5 Divisions of reinforcements for this front. One unit a full strength Armoured Division done by swapping the one I have in deep reserve in the north. If Ben paradrops this turn it could be bad but I need reserves desperately on the main front.

The Toronto line is more vulnerable than usual this turn as well and that is bad – if Ben notices he probably paradrops right when I finally go for an Armoured Swap.

My theory that Ben might manage to become over extended in Mexico is no longer the case. I thought he would head straight for Mexico City with the Panzers but while much of his force pushes south the Panzers detour and take Tampico with a big frontal assault to give him a much closer supply point. He also lands a slew of Solid German Infantry for this operation. I cut off his lead Panzergrenadier Division but I am going to lose a solid Mexican Infantry Division in the process and end up not being sure the trade will be worth it. I find a small handful of units for the defense of Mexico City but it hardly seems enough.

It is getting to the moment when I have to abandon my line in Guatemala. I had thought I would try and just form a new line a little further back but Ben is about to cut the supply line from the north. It is time to go. This turn I set up some units to help cover the retreat. Next turn I leave as fast as I can.

Monterrey is Surrounded – no surprise as I abandoned the city.

Axis Loss Rate = 85 / Allied Loss Rate =196 / Spread = 111

The Mexicans begin gathering forces for the defense of Mexico City. Mostly irregulars cut the most advanced Axis spearhead off.

Fall Grau JB 28.jpg (1.18 MiB) Viewed 1099 times

[golden delicious]

Turn 29:
Jeremy doubles down, cutting off 15. Panzer (my lead division on Indiana) and drawing up a new line further back. Fortunately for me he had a failed force proficiency check (common for the Allies) and so this counter move is incomplete and I can continue to press forward. The force in Eastern Kentucky pulled back again as predicted, so I follow up again, this time splitting to regiments instead of brigades to hold more hexes with the same number of divisions, necessary as I have to drop a couple of units to mark the reserve division at Knoxville. I go in guns blazing as usual, but I have to admit that the low force supply, emptying replacement pools and the reduced rate of reinforcement are starting to have an effect- plus I simply can't maintain this level of offensive intensity over such a broad front. We'll see how things pan out, but I may need to shut down operations in Illinois and focus on the clear air I'm seeing in Indiana- above all though I need to keep getting north as my strategy for the match is pivoting toward reaching Lake Michigan (now only six hexes away).

Jeremy has done his best with overlapping ZOC in Mexico, putting two of my lead divisions out of supply, but I nevertheless charge on ahead, cut off a division of Mexican regulars and reach what I'm assuming is his main line five hexes north of Mexico City. He has forces coming up here by rail so I expect something of a fight here, as I've only accounted for about half a dozen regular Mexican divisions so far and by this point in the scenario a fair number should be on the map, although there are about eight in Guatemala and I think several on the Pacific coast. The majority of my reinforcements are dumped here this turn: five Italian and two German divisions, with the centre receiving three German divisions plus a heavy tank brigade- I decided to start bringing these over as they're suited for the high density, continuous heavy fighting in the centre, whereas I want to keep my mobile divisions in reserve for the west- I'll start landing them there in the next turn or two.

My Plains screen continues to push west and I start to concentrate what I can just behind it for a lunge on Albuquerque on turn 30 or 31- at the moment though this is pretty pathetic: four second-rate divisions plus two Colombian cavalry and SS Hohenstaufen.

I trash the Allied line once again, tearing large holes northeast of Indianapolis (now well in my rear) and in central Illinois. Thing about this is that I achieved something similar last turn and he patched thing back up. I think I'm resolved to dig in west of Peoria, and otherwise try harder to concentrate my strength at critical points rather than continuing the steamroller approach, which is starting to wear out my hardworking German infantry. What I really need is a supply boost- taking Indianapolis should help with that; my Romanians will start assaulting it next turn.

Axis forces begin to tire- but Allied fighting strength is almost spent

FG29.png (1.34 MiB) Viewed 1087 times

[golden delicious]

a lot of elements of Divisions are pulled back and depending on if some of their bits come out or reorganization next round I should be able to assemble between 3 and 5 Divisions

Thinking about it, this mechanism- where the broken down units get pulled back and then go back into line once everyone is out of reorganisation- is probably what's causing the cycle whereby at the end of each of my turns your front looks like it's completely wrecked, but then on the following turn you have a line again. What I'm seeing is always only about 2/3s of your force, so I wreck one third of it but the other third goes back into the line. Of course over time your total strength wastes away, but looking at any one screenshot of this front at the end of the Axis turn it looks like the game is over. This process goes on for 6-8 turns before you actually reach breaking point.

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 29
The headliner is Ben did not actually manage to exploit my early turn ending as much as I thought he would. I think I caught a break where a 3-3 Brigade in Reorg somehow refused to RBC to a powerful SS Panzer Division. Ben body blows me backward but does not cut off the whole flank.

That said this was apparently a terrible turn for me in terms of loss rating with the spread really jumping. It is actually strange because, much to my surprise, I am able to manage to keep a line in place. I even think it looks a fraction better then it has in a number of turns. I am actually really puzzled by this jump. Ben only had 40 attacks which I would consider pretty average for a normal person but is low by his standards.

Otherwise, I am forced to use almost all my armour on the line which I really don’t want to be doing. Also, if I have been holding this thing together only by feeding in endless reinforcements next turn is going to be bad for that. I dug up another good Division and a freed-up Brigade otherwise I have 4 National Guard Divisions That pulled out of the western flank as it hit the Mississippi which will shift back into the fight. Here however, Ben might block the main road into the battle forcing a two-turn march – which would be very problematic at this juncture. Ben is sending Romanians to the main battle – I am guessing for flank cover.

I am fleeing out of Guatemala, hopefully before Ben can cut everything off and have begun to assemble something of an army to fight Ben’s advance toward Mexico City but an absolute ton of Italians and even more German Infantry are landing. I am not at all sure that fighting for Mexico City is what I am supposed to be doing. I think I need to as long as I have an army that desperately needs the rail link to get out of Guatemala however. After that I really don’t know. I found a way to cut off both of Ben’s German mechanized units again this turn. This actually might make last turns sacrifice of a Mexican Division worth it. If I can blunt his really powerful units, I might be able to force this into a slog. I have no problem fighting a slog with Mexicans. It’s them dying while accomplishing nothing I fear.

Super quite turn from me as I pause in my attacks to the north having withdrawn the last of the Canadians from here. I also want to see what Ben is doing – though I see he is building the rail line out to Sault. Saint Marie. He clearly plans to come take it at some point. I send another Light Division out here (I don’t like them on the main front because they are chalk full of valuable American Rifle Squads but with no heavy weapons they tend to just die a lot).

Wow – 420 National Guard Rifle squads left in the replacement pool… that is crazy low for this point in the game. I mean it looks like I will run out of them shortly and it is rare they ever run out – certainly not this early in the match. I think this sort of explains how I have been able to constantly patch Humpty Dumpty back together every turn despite the murderfest Ben is committing. It is primarily the National Guard that has been dying and then reconstituting and I basically have a conga line of National Guard Divisions being fed into the meat grinder in the main fight. I am oddly not super unhappy with that – I would much rather lose with the National Guard tapped out then lose with thousands of National Guard squads in the kitty… and if, by some miracle, Ben’s offensive runs out of steam this will be the reason why.

The Mexicans prepare to flee Central America to reinforce Mexico City.

Fall Grau JB 29.jpg (1.46 MiB) Viewed 1047 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

a lot of elements of Divisions are pulled back and depending on if some of their bits come out or reorganization next round I should be able to assemble between 3 and 5 Divisions

Thinking about it, this mechanism- where the broken down units get pulled back and then go back into line once everyone is out of reorganisation- is probably what's causing the cycle whereby at the end of each of my turns your front looks like it's completely wrecked, but then on the following turn you have a line again. What I'm seeing is always only about 2/3s of your force, so I wreck one third of it but the other third goes back into the line. Of course over time your total strength wastes away, but looking at any one screenshot of this front at the end of the Axis turn it looks like the game is over. This process goes on for 6-8 turns before you actually reach breaking point.

The repairing Divisions are only a small part of this. 3-5 Divisions is not 1/3 of the Allied forces. 1/8 more like. They also don't actually manage to come out of reorg after a turn but often remain in reorg for many turns. They are a factor but more importantly is the line is increasingly made out of Canadians and National Guard so these have been coming back. Plus I have regular Allied reinforcements (though they usually go to relieve some other part of the line so I can withdraw fully supplied units for Illinois). I have been skimming units out of the north, replacing all the US Brigades on the West Coast with Mexicans and sending the fully supplied Brigades here, replacing the defences of the Missouri with regiments that don't have a full compliment (so they can't be formed back into Divisions) for anything that could be formed into a Division and even skimming units out of the line in the south. Plus there is actually basically no defence of Albuquerque or Denver and Omaha is screened by 3 Cavalry Regiments. The few Armoured Divisions I have in reserve in other places (Niagara Peninsula and behind Kansas City) get swapped every so often so burnt out Armoured Divisions are replaced by near full strength ones.

I am able to put the line back together in Illinois every turn because, outside of occasionally replacing a Division in front of Toronto (which is not getting more divisions just replacing burnt out divisions with fresh ones) no where else is getting anything that could reasonably fight on the main line. It is constant reinforcements that are patching this back together - especially reconstituting National Guard.

This turn is probably a reasonable example. I lament that I only found a good Brigade (from out of the West) and a Canadian Division (from the north) as reinforcements. However I also have 4 National Guard Divisions you chased over the Mississippi that will re-enter the fray. Next turn I'll also likely manage to pull 2 Brigades out of the south and I probably refit 1 more Division from a regiment that finally came out of Reorg. In reality next turn things will seem very stretched as always but hold together when I throw another 7 1/2 Divisions into the line.

[golden delicious]

Turn 30:
More magic ZOCs from Jeremy this turn putting my two SS divisions in Mexico out of supply once again. However the regular Mexican infantry division which was in the way here fell back and I find that I'm able to follow up to within two hexes of Mexico City. I expect more of the same from Jeremy next turn at which point these two divisions will officially be wrecked, but at that point I will have 7 German and a dozen Italian divisions following up and if need be I can simply pull the SS back to Tampico to resupply. I think it's fairly to say that Jeremy is in full panic mode here as he strips most of his troops out of Guatemala to go hold Mexico City, which is actually fabulous as I was wondering how I was going to get Guatemala City and ensure the Allies have absolutely no supply in Central America once I reach the Gulf of California.

I think the situation in Mexico is good enough that I divert some of the Italian infantry that was resting at Monterrey directly west to support the push to the Pacific- it's possible Jeremy will let me occupy the western mountain range in Mexico. Further north, I continue to inch east but decide not to jump on Albuquerque this turn. Next turn, I'll have my four German infantry divisions that much closer and this will feel a lot less like a leap in the dark. I land three Hungarian mobile divisions at Houston this turn to provide some extra mobility here; once things are more clearly resolved in Mexico this will step up further.

In the centre, Jeremy has tidied up his line, holding a neat arc from Cincinnati to Davenport on the Mississippi, again pulling back south of the Ohio as well. As discussed last turn, I start to wind down operations on the western half of the front here, with a couple of local encirclements which Jeremy has effectively allowed me to make of Mexican irregulars. This allows me to consolidate my force into two main drives, both based around where I was able to get a good RBC on one of Jeremy's battered line units: one northwest of Cincinnati to put that city into an awkward salient; the other, larger, aimed north along a front of about ten hexes in the centre of what is now a rather large bulge pointed at Lake Michigan. The Romanians assault Indianapolis as planned and do enough damage that I hope to take the city next turn- as an added bonus, I hope to connect it to my rail net so the whole map benefits from 120% supply, not just this sector. Badly needed as force supply remains at 20 and I have eleven mechanised divisions resting behind the lines.

I also see a withdrawal from Jeremy in Canada, with the two divisions outside Sault Ste. Marie gone back a hex. In addition to this, most uncharacteristically, he's left one hex on the Toronto line without a fortified (or even an entrenched) defender. My troops are in good shape so I hit him again here- knowing too that the very powerful armoured division which had been parked at Buffalo almost since the start of the scenario has been replaced with a new, unready one. I get the one hex but this does leave me vulnerable to taking a beating on Jeremy's turn. I don't mind too much as this keeps him in place here.

My drive north of Cincinnati- which had looked so promising- grinds to an abrupt halt. It seems Jeremy REALLY doesn't want me getting into Ohio, as he has two full-strength regular divisions (one of them, I think, the armour out of Buffalo) dug in on the line here. I haven't seen units like these on this front since I crossed the Ohio. As such I dig in and pull back, to concentrate on my Drang Nach Lake Michigan, apart from a local attack where it's awkward to pull back. The main drive goes tolerably well, with one division destroyed and a couple of others put out of supply, with the usual hole torn in the Allied line, bringing the distance to the shore down to three hexes. I still feel like I should be getting forward more here, but I suppose this comes down to the fact that I've poured massive resources into the west over the last five or six turns: if I'd left the west alone, I would have had half a dozen additional mechanised divisions on this front and I'd have gotten further- but I wouldn't be at the gates of Mexico City. This boils down to the vision that I can more or less keep this front on a slow burn as the terrain is so open, while developing the west. Certainly I have Jeremy's attention here: I don't expect serious resistance in the west until I reach California. At that point, I intend to be putting heavy pressure on the Allies across the west to keep him pinned down.

The dire Axis supply situation starts to have an impact on the rate of advance; most mechanised divisions are either burnt out or already pulled off the line, with the infantry having to do much of the heavy lifting

FG30.png (878.64 KiB) Viewed 1031 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 30
I am beginning to suffer from hope. Hope is a cruel mistress when playing Ben. Once I have hope I also have fear. Ben hits me with body blows across the front and is down to a mere 35 attacks this turn, a fair number of which are airfield attacks. Despite my lack of reserves last turn I manage to patch things back up. Better yet, for the first time in the scenario I manage to start building a secondary line.

It might be too late but I have to try. There is a minor river in front of Chicago, and I am able to dig up 5 Divisions to start occupying it and while I have an Engineer back here getting these guys to dig in Ben will be on this line all too soon. Still with a second line I feel it is reasonable to bring my HQs back onto the front. Though many, many of them are off trying to keep the supply up of units moving up to the front or digging in as relief forces.

Of more significance I manage to drag together 3 Armoured Divisions for this battle. I’m doing so swapping out my burnt out Armoured Divisions. I send a pretty busted Armoured Division to replace the full strength one I have at Kansas City. If Ben see’s it he might just storm Kansas City (a valuable Industrial city which I absolutely cannot afford to lose at this point in the match). Two turns from now with this replacement Armoured Division sucking up supply I’ll be back to being able to probably counter attack any direct attack on Kansas City that does not actually involve Ben throwing an army this way to take it.

With a back up line, artillery and armoured reserves I’ll be counter attacking to keep holding onto this line for as long as I can.

Other parts of the Main line still have some serious issues. I have an Armoured Division stuck on the front line that I wish I could withdraw but just could not get anything for it this turn however I do have one last powerful Armoured Division down near Cincinnati. I’m not sure if it will be enough but here again, whatever I can do to hold onto Cincinnati for as long as possible.

My glimmers of hope however are also coming from the condition of Ben’s army on the main front. He has pushed it so hard for so long it really does look like it is starting to flag. The number of Infantry Divisions he has down to single digits in terms of strength is up there. While he always seems able to have a couple of powerful and hale Panzer Divisions the vast majority that I can see are worn out. This is why it has been basically body blow type offenses for the last few turns. I have a lot of reinforcements coming onto the map in the next three turns and maybe, just maybe. This slows Ben’s offensive to a crawl.

On the other hand there is the fear. The rail line that goes through Gary, near Chicago (and 50 km from the front line) is the last rail link I have between east and west. If it falls that might well be a disaster. Ben could hold the western flank and just liquidate the whole east which would be a sure win. I would not be able to patch Divisions back together if they reconstituted on the wrong side and if the east is being mauled but my reconstituted units are reappearing half the time in the west then it seems pretty clear that my eastern line would soon collapse – especially since the majority of Allied reinforcements appear in the West, basically all the National Guard do. So yeah – it would be really good if I could keep this corridor open but I am not sure how realistic that is.

[Edit: Ben is talking a lot about the West, especially if he cuts me in two at Lake Michigan. I am far more concerned with him going east.]

Meanwhile down in Guatemala – outside of the forces left to screen the retreat almost all the army is gone this turn… railed up behind Mexico City. It is probably madness but with these reinforcements plus some other odds and sods I have gathered I plan to fight for Mexico City.

Ben is making it very clear that he has every intention of taking it as more Italians arrive – though most of Bens’s reinforcements are German Infantry being sent to the Main line. I don’t know how well the Mexicans will do in this fight but if they can make a go of it Ben’s supply trace from Tampico has got to be stretched. I am also pleased that once again, for the third turn running I manage to cut off Ben’s leading SS Panzertruppen. These guys have not seen food in so long they don’t know what it looks like.

The north in front of Toronto is the only place I counter attack – Ben drove forward and I hit back here as I don’t like him beside Toronto. We are both taking losses here but I think a Blitz out of Ben became less likely – his one Panzer Division on this front is reduced to a shell.

Finally we are, I think, entering a bit of a weird stage of the match in that, all of a sudden, Industrial City’s are looking a lot more important. I’ve been careful – up to this point not to let Industrial Cities dictate my strategy but that is starting to change. My replacement rate is actually pretty high this turn. Ben knows it too. His motto as always been “destroy the Allied army and the Industrial cities fall by default”. But that has not happened yet, somehow (heavy reliance on the National Guard) I am still able to field an army and its growing large for the next few turns even while Ben is struggling to launch the kind of devastating battles of encirclement, he is so very good at because the Panzers are flagging.

In effect even Ben is starting to look for ways to either force my replacement rate into the floor or at least keep it from getting out of hand. We see that as I watch with astonishment as Ben pulls a Panzer Division off the front line and sends it back to make sure that Indianapolis falls next turn. Ben never uses Panzers to reduce cities. That is what Infantry is for.

I even notice some forces approaching Albuquerque and send a couple of well supplied Armoured Regiments there this turn. I’m looking to send just a bit more next turn to try and figure out what he has coming at me down here and maybe I can stop him from taking Albuquerque.

[Edit: Two Armoured Regiments is not going to prove to be adequate defences for Albuquerque.]

Allied Production Boost: 69%

Allied Turn 30 Overview

Fall Grau Turn 30 Overview.jpg (4.91 MiB) Viewed 1015 times

[golden delicious]

If Ben see’s it he might just storm Kansas City (a valuable Industrial city which I absolutely cannot afford to lose at this point in the match).

Not any more- we swapped Kansas City for St. Louis a couple of versions ago if you remember. From this direction Kansas City is so exposed that if it were an industrial city I would have taken it by now.

In effect even Ben is starting to look for ways to either force my replacement rate into the floor or at least keep it from getting out of hand. We see that as I watch with astonishment as Ben pulls a Panzer Division off the front line and sends it back to make sure that Indianapolis falls next turn. Ben never uses Panzers to reduce cities. That is what Infantry is for.

This division is actually going back to resupply, and Indianapolis is where the supply will be.

[golden delicious]

Turn 31:
As predicted, my lead SS divisions are again cut off with ZOC, but easily relieved by the infantry. I'll use them for one turn's fighting at Mexico City, to ensure the outer screen doesn't slow me down too much, and then withdraw back to supply at Tampico; from next turn my German infantry will be fully engaged and so far I seem to have the Mexicans totally outmatched. By the end of the turn, I've given both flanks a good hammering and should be able to strip the city of its defences next turn.

Up at Albuquerque, a US armoured regiment moved up to my screen and just sat. I'm hoping this is a trap: I surround the unit with various trash units and hope to have a couple of divisions come out of the mist and hit me, then I can smash them in turn with the five German divisions (including SS Hohenstaufen) that are just behind. I add SS Frundsberg at Houston this turn to start building this up in case there's a more general engagement in New Mexico.

Looks like another turn of retrenchment in the centre: the Allies pulled out of the finger of territory between the Mississippi and Missouri near St. Louis, and the main line is somewhat rationalised again. I continue to place my emphasis on the central portion of the Allied line here, targeting a couple of vulnerable salients which can be pinched off and then exploited, but I also continue local operations north of Cincinnati, where the monster armoured division has, for now, disappeared from the scene- as soon as I advance, though, I see it in the hexrow behind. I withdraw my one good panzer division here and convert this into an operation to wreck the good US infantry division I see on the line here, while keeping Jeremy focused on the threat to Cincinnati.

I get a couple more hexes north and that leaves just one more hex between me and Lake Michigan. It feels to me like Jeremy has a lot of troops around Chicago; not just a line but a backstopped line with artillery and armour in reserve. This being the case, unless he makes a big effort to transfer it through the gap I may shift my weight fully to the east next turn. This sort of turns my whole western strategy on its head but for now I see an opportunity to smash the Allied armies in Indiana and Ohio. I clear Indianapolis this turn and as hoped I'm able to extend the RR right into the city, so I'll get a significant boost to supply across the map from this- and I have a whole lot of panzer divisions sat on the rail right now. I have vague ideas about sending the Romanians to Louisville to clear the airfield for me- desperately short of airfields near the front still.

The mixed Axis force in New Mexico finally goes into action

FG31.png (791.5 KiB) Viewed 997 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 31
OK, finally, I get a good turn. Ben’s body blows continue but his operation to surround the Canadian 8th Armour fails. Though the damn idiots are still reorging so he can try again next turn.

Still, in general the turn goes very well. A few odds and sods don’t make it but Ben’s Panzer Thrust toward Lake Michigan gets right up beside my final rail link connecting east and west but I manage a counter attack that cuts off both Panzer Divisions and am able to destroy them throwing Ben back south at least for the moment.

Even this brief disconnect between East and West is pretty notable however as, while my western line in front of Chicago is sometimes three hexs deep in the east I am refusing flanks on part of the line and other parts are being covered by completely unsuitable units. I get a lot of reinforcements next turn and if I still have the rail link I hope to pour in some extra toward the east just for more reserves for the line.

Indianapolis falls – no surprise there though I am hardly happy about it. Still the turn sees the biggest jump of the Loss Rating the Axis have had this match. My Loss rating goes up but only by a little. If I could somehow do this about 10 more times I could still win this.

I see Ben sends two Panzer Divisions back across the Mississippi to the West. This from his resupplying Panzers in reserve. I sure don’t like that. I don’t know where they are heading but there is nowhere they can go that I am at all prepared for. If they just go to burst their way into Kansas City my armoured reserve here is very weak. I am doing nothing but screening Omaha with 3 Cavalry Regiments. Denver has no defenders at all.

Only Albuquerque has anything and it does turn out that there is at least a reasonable number of Axis minor Divisions on approach because they just surrounded one of the Tank Regiments I sent down there. I can probably dig up a little more for Albuquerque next turn.

Oh I just noticed that Ben is about to lay siege to El Paso as well. That is not critical at the moment but I’ll eventually have to send forces down around there – it is a long way to San Diego but capturing the city means the Japanese get ashore.

No sign of a move on Denver though Ben could sneak up on me if he was careful not to cut the rail lines.

In Mexico Ben begins his offensive but nothing outrageous. Sadly I could not cut him off again. He is being much more careful about his flanks. I sent a Mexican Cavalry Division to try and go way wide around his western flank and there are Italians refusing it far to the rear as I bumped into one. Ben’s German Infantry have arrived so I think he begins the heavy attack next turn. My own forces here continue to grow with Mexican Artillery arriving as well as some American National Guard that reconstituted in Mexico City and most of what remains of the Army that fled Guatemala. Ben is still kicking around my rearguard in Guatemala. It will be interesting to see what he does when that is complete.

Finally, the Toronto Front is really tapped out this turn. The endless back and forth is slowly going his way. Would not want to see his airdrop this turn because the Armoured Division I have in deep reserve is currently a burnt out wreck. Really the my front here is just worn out. I’ll probably send one of my few powerful Commonwealth Divisions here next turn. In theory as Ben reduced his strength along the St. Lawrence and sent it here, I was supposed to copy him but the reality was everything I swapped out got sent to the Main line.

The Allies finally manage to launch a reasonably successful, if limited, Armoured Counter Attack to stop the Axis from reaching Lake Michigan.

Fall Grau JB 31.jpg (792.1 KiB) Viewed 961 times

[golden delicious]

I see Ben sends two Panzer Divisions back across the Mississippi to the West.

The vagaries of the replay. These units are regiments- remnants of two divisions which were smashed but not totally eliminated. I determined that they were more useful on the Plains front were a few fast pieces can make a big difference.

[golden delicious]

Turn 32:
OK well Jeremy decided he didn't like me being so close to Lake Michigan and threw everything in to the counterattack, wiping out one or two panzer divisions in the process. This I was not quite expecting so I won't start analysing my glorious victory just yet. To achieve this, Jeremy threw in his armoured reserve, and so I'll aim to push ahead again both sides of this concentration to see if I can trap it against the lake. I scale down my offensive operations west of here, which were bloodily frustrated last turn, and pull back my more battered divisions to rest. At the same time, three panzer divisions that were in reserve at St. Louis move up behind this sector of the front to give me some power next turn.

Down in Mexico, Jeremy has drawn a considerable line up either side of Mexico City to prevent me isolating it. Thing is, I don't feel like this is actually a necessity; I can simply clear the three hexes in the forward arc and that gives me my flank bonus for a direct assault. I aim to do this this turn and so I start concentrating my Italians ready for the assault; this is somewhat complicated by Jeremy trying to insert light troops on my flanks which ties up a number of Italian divisions, but should give me enough for a full-blooded assault early next turn at the latest. To make sure, I dump my remaining uncommitted Italian infantry into Tampico (three divisions plus an HQ)

A couple more Allied units show up in New Mexico this turn but nothing serious; I should be able to do some damage and hopefully put Albuquerque out of supply ready for assault in a couple of turns, when my Hungarians arrive here. This plays out rather nicely, with Hohenstaufen smashing one fragment after another, leaving two of them trapped unsupplied in the city and the third a wreck on the outskirts

We continue our back and forth outside Toronto. One way or another I want to have some options here, so I send the first reinforcements to this front in about 20 turns, in the form of 2nd Axis Army, a collection of various junk units. These will take over the rail protection task from the Italians, freeing up those divisions to go on the line in one capacity or another.

My big push to Lake Michigan doesn't really come off. I get one armoured division out of supply but one of my spearheads simply gets stuck and I don't get a ZOC over the critical lakeside hex, which is a shame as I really pushed my troops to the limit on the other spearhead and I suspect they're going to suffer on Jeremy's turn. I suppose on the brightside he's going to be really committed to this battle when all my fresh panzer troops slam into the front next turn. To the south, comically my Romanians storm into Louisville, pushing the garrison onto the rear of two German units which are now out of supply. Oh well- at least these guys seem to be good for this work; I'll send them up to Fort Wayne next which is about to be cut off and has another good airfield.

Axis forces poised for a direct assault on Mexico City

FG32.png (1.04 MiB) Viewed 942 times

[Jeremy Mac Donald]

Turn 32
Ben’s constant air attacks with the Japanese air force in the west finally really make sense to me. In TOAW IV it helps to keep the median turn on the low side. I find myself doing the same this turn. I don’t have many attacks and a few of them I want to make sure I initiate without ending the turn. Of course, I lose hundreds of Bombers in the process. Next time I probably send fighters.

The Main Line should probably start getting referred to in sections. The eastern portion is under extreme pressure because it is so hard to find much in the way of reinforcements – despite this being an absolutely bonanza turn for reinforcements. I do manage to clear the rail corridor again this turn but what I have standing in the way of Ben for the defense of the Gary corridor is weak, weaker than last turn and Ben will likely close it for real next turn.

If he does then I pretty much have a plan A and a plan B. Plan A is I keep counter attacking to open it again. Plan B is straight out mad – I counter attack in Canada aiming to clear the Sault St. Marie – Sudbury – Toronto rail line.
Winter has arrived in the north of the continent so this could turn into a campaign in Canada in winter – that will be miserable. Nonetheless Ben is really just screening me near Sault St. Marie. His real attack is at Toronto so an offensive here might distract him.

As it stands fighting is heavy on the Toronto line. I finally freed up the remaining Divisions on the St. Lawrence River and pulled three solid Canadian and Commonwealth Divisions down to the area of Buffalo. This left me confident to feed the Armoured Division I had in deep reserve there into the fray which was badly needed as Ben did a number on the line and for the first time this match, I felt like Toronto was in danger. I managed to catch an Axis division in an overstack retreat here and it dissolved so it is possible that the real offensive in Canada might actually come from the Toronto area… though I am probably getting ahead of myself. Ben still has more Divisions than me here and I have lost track of that Panzer Division he has. He also landed a slew of Croatians and Serbs and the like. Absolutely terrible troops but my bet is they take over the rail guarding duties and free a bunch of Italians up.

On the Main Line I manage to catch his main force bludgeoning its way to Chicago in another overstack situation and kill some more German Infantry. Ben’s loss rating jumps past 100 this turn but I lose even more – I suspect dead bombers are what really jacks up my loss rating. I have lost a lot of bombers. I do initiate a small counter attack in the west of the line as I slipped a couple of American Regiments in behind him here and realized I could cut off a corridor. Ben can, no doubt retrieve the situation but it puts pressure on him where I don’t think he wants to go. Ben appeared to withdraw a lot of Infantry off the Main Line this turn. I think most of the less hale ones. Not sure his plan but I am guessing he has noticed that the defenses in front of Chicago are increasingly robust and Chicago is off the list of targets at least until I strip the defenses down. He’ll keep one powerful force attacking so I don’t do that. What will be interesting is where all these Infantry go? Also do they get a refit or are they thrown back into the fray immediately? I think there is basically an equal chance that they are thrown at the eastern part of the Main line and that they are railed out of this front altogether and sent to attack places like Denver and Omaha? Maybe even El Paso.

Meanwhile Albuquerque is a disaster. Ben has a SS Panzer Division here and it smacks around my meager defenders – though I manage to at least cut it off on my turn. Albuquerque is already under siege and beyond a significant number of Columbians and maybe a few Italians I see the Hungarian Infantry Corp coming up. I rail in 5 National Guard to the area but I am not even sure if I should engage and try and save Albuquerque. This is the kind of battle where Ben can use maneuver and just cut off and destroy the whole force. National Guard are no longer expendable. On the other hand a battle here – if it goes long favours me. Ben can’t be getting much supply out this far.

In Mexico the good German Infantry start throwing the Mexicans back but the integrity of the line is holding up so far. I am still finding ways to harass Ben’s flank as well.

Just as the last of the units are swapped out in the East the same is true of the West Coast beach defenses. The last two Divisions have been freed up. I get a slew of other reinforcements next turn as well… and then things are going to get hard until around turn 40. My reinforcements will be few and far between. This will be doubly hard with the National Guard at the end of their rope. Things have been going well for me, more or less, for the last handful of turns but I could still completely collapse before turn 50. We will see.

Indianapolis: 63%

Axis Loss Rate = 101 / Allied Loss Rate =227 / Spread = 126

The Mexicans defend Mexico City.

Fall Grau JB 32.jpg (1.38 MiB) Viewed 917 times

[golden delicious]

Turn 32
Ben’s constant air attacks with the Japanese air force in the west finally really make sense to me. In TOAW IV it helps to keep the median turn on the low side. I find myself doing the same this turn. I don’t have many attacks and a few of them I want to make sure I initiate without ending the turn. Of course, I lose hundreds of Bombers in the process. Next time I probably send fighters.

This is technically accurate and one of the problems with TOAW IV, but it's not my motive in this case. You have five or six fighter units permanently stationed in Washington state which could be in the east instead. It doesn't matter if the losses favour me or not (they're usually about even), as otherwise the Japanese air force would simply sit there with nothing to do. Yes, I'm using fighters for these attacks as I find fighters more effective at airfield attacks against other fighters.