OT: Corona virus

[witpqs]

Good article.
The Trail Leading Back to the Wuhan Labs

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

17 year old comes in with a fever. Been to the skate park every day since school was canceled AND he went out on a date last night. Is that "social distancing"?

Give him the old fashioned military "short arm" inspection. Make it as uncomfortable as possible, making sure that a nurse is present and maybe mommy as well . . .

[Canoerebel]

Rob,

Do you have any feel whether the lagging case reports are reflected in the U. Washington model/projection?

Attached is the U. Wash. projection for Michigan, as of today.

Pardon me if you're already 100x ahead of me on this, but my experience with the Wash. projections over the past week is that it predominantly overestimates mortality (sometimes considerably) and much more rarely underestimates (but not in my experience considerably). From what I've seen, I'd expect the model to incorporate lagging data and other things behind the curtain, so that the projections continue consistently. Or do you find something that leads you to believe U. Wash. projection will likely seriously underreport, as we'll see in coming days.

I'm anxious to know, because the site has a good record (from where I sit). If it is subject to mistakes, I'd want to know (and presumably they would too!).

Thanks for posting. Good luck to the Wolverine State.

ORIGINAL: Cad908

According to the U of Washington COVID-19 projection, Michigan, my home state, is today at its peak in projected deaths. Just for reference, here is a summary of the results to date in Michigan.

Just a couple of comments/observations:

The numbers are the official state totals. The reporting lags as Michigan has experienced erratic data flows from the county and hospital level. The use of "Confirmed Case" and "Reported Death" are subject to the same interpretation "bias" as has been discussed at length in this forum.

The regional differences are stark. The experience of S.E. Michigan (Metro Detroit) is tragic. 1 in 280 of its people have tested positive, while its 1 in 3,482 in Western Michigan (Grand Rapids-Kentwood-Muskegon). I do not know if the west side of the state will start to"catch up", but it is hard to imagine the economic, social, political, ect., ramifications of this disparity going forward. Michigan is not the only state which will have this COVID-19 legacy, and I am hopeful it brings out the "better angels of our nature". But the pragmatic side of my nature observes quicksand all around.

-Rob

[Wuffer]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Rob,

Do you have any feel whether the lagging case reports are reflected in the U. Washington model/projection?

Attached is the U. Wash. projection for Michigan, as of today.

Pardon me if you're already 100x ahead of me on this, but my experience with the Wash. projections over the past week is that it predominantly overestimates mortality (sometimes considerably) and much more rarely underestimates (but not in my experience considerably). From what I've seen, I'd expect the model to incorporate lagging data and other things behind the curtain, so that the projections continue consistently. Or do you find something that leads you to believe U. Wash. projection will likely seriously underreport, as we'll see in coming days.

I'm anxious to know, because the site has a good record (from where I sit). If it is subject to mistakes, I'd want to know (and presumably they would too!).

Thanks for posting. Good luck to the Wolverine State.

ORIGINAL: Cad908

According to the U of Washington COVID-19 projection, Michigan, my home state, is today at its peak in projected deaths. Just for reference, here is a summary of the results to date in Michigan.

Just a couple of comments/observations:

The numbers are the official state totals. The reporting lags as Michigan has experienced erratic data flows from the county and hospital level. The use of "Confirmed Case" and "Reported Death" are subject to the same interpretation "bias" as has been discussed at length in this forum.

The regional differences are stark. The experience of S.E. Michigan (Metro Detroit) is tragic. 1 in 280 of its people have tested positive, while its 1 in 3,482 in Western Michigan (Grand Rapids-Kentwood-Muskegon). I do not know if the west side of the state will start to"catch up", but it is hard to imagine the economic, social, political, ect., ramifications of this disparity going forward. Michigan is not the only state which will have this COVID-19 legacy, and I am hopeful it brings out the "better angels of our nature". But the pragmatic side of my nature observes quicksand all around.

-Rob

I think you should include the next rows in worldometer regarding the numbers of tests.What is of concern is the relation between the total number of tests and positive cases.

Compare for example NJ and Michigan @ worldometer.

NJ every second test positive? Hope that's a mistake!
The total test numbers of same states are unfortuneately still lacking, e.g. nearly third world niveau, sorry, which makes any prediction quite difficult.

[Canoerebel]

These graphs really illustrate Italy's long, tough campaign.

The Univ. of Washington projection for Italy shows a steeper drop should be underway. Regrettably it tends to underestimate daily mortality here.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Wuffer, will do from now on.

I didn't in this case to fit everything into the allotted space and because what I excerpted was the info relating to my point.

I think you're in Germany? Or is it France? Good luck to you.

[Cap Mandrake]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Good article.
The Trail Leading Back to the Wuhan Labs

Research papers being withdrawn

A bat virologist publishing papers on the TREATMENT OF HUMAN SARS-2

Molecular biology shows a SINGLE trans species jump

And the you have the track record of the CCP

And American universities TRAINED a large percentage of these scientists?



Time for a Congressional investigation

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"I think what we're going to have embedded and imprinted in us forever is the realization that something as catastrophic as what the world is experiencing now can happen," Fauci said.

WHAT THE #$@%. Have you ever read a history book?!


catastrophic????????????????? REALLY?


"embedded and imprinted" Now we are getting to the point!

The impacts are (relatively) catastrophic. When you're forced to choose between government spending at levels not seen since WW2 (would that classify as "catastrophic" to you?) so that people can feasibly practice social distancing (which is itself an extreme behavioral change) without starving to death, or door #2 with the realistic potential for a few million deaths (>0.5% of the population) over the course of a few months - those are catastrophic stakes. For reference, the total American dead in WW2 was just over 400,000 which was 0.32% of the total population.

For the deceased and their loved ones there are no words to describe the pain and the loss.
The cure may be more catastrophic than the disease.

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Pokeweed is edible if harvested early (sprouting) and properly prepared. When mature it's poisonous.

Granny Clampett was always talking about pokeweed.

(Phydolacca americana, from my memory store unaccessed on that name in twenty years or more).

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You probably are well aware, but redbud (Cercis canadensis) is a member of the legume/pea family. You're right, the flowers taste just like peanuts.

Pokeweed will be available soon.

I despise the pokeweed plant. I'm trying to eradicate it on my property but without much success.

I don't mess with Pokeweed. It takes several cookings and one has to "know" to keep from being sick/dead.
The berries will close a persons throat. One of the first plants kids are warned about.

[Canoerebel]

Wimp. [:D]

[Sammy5IsAlive]

I think we are now moving into the next phase of this. Tracking day-to-day cases/deaths will now start to give us increasingly good news - something to be celebrated .

So I think the question is now - where next?

It seems to me that in Europe and the US we have got on top of the epidemic through 'brute force'. But that strategy is not sustainable economically. It seems to be generally accepted that a vaccine is likely still a year away. What happens in the meantime?

Where do people think the 'holding pattern' is? The balance between economic recovery and avoiding a return to day 1 of an epidemic curve.

South Korea seems to have done a good job of keeping on top of things. But some of the strategies they have used would seem to be anathema to the European/American public. To what extent do we feel comfortable with that kind of heavy monitoring and involvement from 'big government'?

In more general terms (setting aside the public health specifics) how are we going to deal with what looks likely to be a global recession, if not an equivalent of the Great Depression of the 1930s? Do we carry on as normal in the belief that the free market will right itself naturally? Or will we need to make a paradigm shift in our beliefs about the economy and society?

[MakeeLearn]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Wimp. [:D]

Yes, But I will get with a woman that's into it!

Elvis explains it...

"Polk Salad Annie"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4csFnpZXek

[MakeeLearn]

Hospitals Paid Extra to List Patients as COVID19 & 3X as Much if the Patient on Ventilator
April 9, 2020


https://principia-scientific.org/hospit ... entilator/

"his was after Dr. Scott Jensen, a Minnesota physician and Republican state senator, told a local station he received a 7-page document coaching him to fill out death certificates with a COVID-19 diagnosis without a lab test to confirm the patient actually had the virus.

Dr. Jensen also disclosed that hospitals are paid more if they list patients with a COVID-19 diagnosis. And hospitals get paid THREE TIMES AS MUCH if the patient then goes on a ventilator.

Senator Dr. Scott Jensen: Right now Medicare is determining that if you have a COVID-19 admission to the hospital you get $13,000. If that COVID-19 patient goes on a ventilator you get $39,000, three times as much. Nobody can tell me after 35 years in the world of medicine that sometimes those kinds of things impact on what we do."

[MakeeLearn]

Horowitz: Dr. Birx: ‘We’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality’
April 8, 2020

https://www.conservativereview.com/news ... y-plummet/

"Yesterday, Dr. Deborah Birx finally let the secret out during the daily press conference in response to a reporter’s question. “I think in this country, we’ve taken a very liberal approach to mortality,” said Dr. Birx, who along with Dr. Anthony Fauci has become the face of this push for a national lockdown.

“There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem. Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.”

“The intent is if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death,” concluded Birx."

[MakeeLearn]

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Nearly 90% of People Hospitalized for COVID-19 Have Underlying Conditions, Says CDC
3 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz


These numbers are similar to JohnDillworth' post yesterday.



"For weeks, the world has been inundated with information about the COVID-19 pandemic. While cases continue to rise and researchers learn more about the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), most data has lacked a certain specificity needed to ensure that people take this illness seriously.

But on Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was able to give a closer look at exactly who is most affected by COVID-19—and its findings underscore the importance of the preventive measures we've all been taking.

The highest rates of hospitalization occurred in those ages 65 and older.

In a new study published for the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers found that the majority of those hospitalized due to COVID-19 have preexisting conditions—about 90% of patients, or nearly all, had one or more underlying conditions.

The most common, per the CDC, include
hypertension (49.7%),
obesity (48.3%),
chronic lung disease (34.6%),
diabetes mellitus (28.3%),
and cardiovascular disease (27.8%)."

Do you know how this and the previous post compare to Influenza mortality rates?

[Canoerebel]

Good questions, Sammy. I concur with your thoughts.

Regarding how do we set about resuming, I wrote several days back that in the US, I think we'll probably do so when we think we have sufficient medical capacity to handle any likely localized outbreaks. That should be by May 1 or a bit thereafter in many states. We'll err on the side of caution, for good reason. Some restrictions will be easier to relax than others.

I doubt America will be ready to really move forward until the situation in the NYC area is under control. Judging from the U. Washington projections, that should be by the end of this month. Here's hoping for success!

Everyone will watch carefully as pathfinder states like Denmark and Austria ease up on restrictions in the near future. How that goes will be critical.

I am not comfortable measuring financial trends but I think there's a chance many economies will roar back to life, creating a mini-boom for a bit. Long term, though, repercussions from this will ripple throughout our economy and presumable many others. Inflation is a major concern. The USA is giving significant sums to many taxpayers and loans that are really grants to small businesses. A lot of easily obtained cash is going to hit a needy population. Will inflation ensure or depression?

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

I think we are now moving into the next phase of this. Tracking day-to-day cases/deaths will now start to give us increasingly good news - something to be celebrated .

So I think the question is now - where next?

It seems to me that in Europe and the US we have got on top of the epidemic through 'brute force'. But that strategy is not sustainable economically. It seems to be generally accepted that a vaccine is likely still a year away. What happens in the meantime?

Where do people think the 'holding pattern' is? The balance between economic recovery and avoiding a return to day 1 of an epidemic curve.

South Korea seems to have done a good job of keeping on top of things. But some of the strategies they have used would seem to be anathema to the European/American public. To what extent do we feel comfortable with that kind of heavy monitoring and involvement from 'big government'?

In more general terms (setting aside the public health specifics) how are we going to deal with what looks likely to be a global recession, if not an equivalent of the Great Depression of the 1930s? Do we carry on as normal in the belief that the free market will right itself naturally? Or will we need to make a paradigm shift in our beliefs about the economy and society?

[RangerJoe]

But some of the business and personal expenses are fixed with no money to offset their losses. But yes, there probably will be a mini boom at the restaurants and bars, among others.

[Canoerebel]

Presumably, this means Dr. Fauci has a measure of confidence in the Univ. of Washington projections.

[MakeeLearn]

A Human Coronavirus Responsible for the Common Cold Massively Kills Dendritic Cells but Not Monocytes

2012 July
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3416289/

"Human coronaviruses are associated with upper respiratory tract infections that occasionally spread to the lungs and other organs.

Although airway epithelial cells represent an important target for infection, the respiratory epithelium is also composed of an elaborate network of dendritic cells (DCs) that are essential sentinels of the immune system, sensing pathogens and presenting foreign antigens to T lymphocytes. "