OT: Corona virus

[Encircled]

If I'm not civil to people, I don't expect a civil response.

Just saying.

[Canoerebel]

Spain report.

396 new deaths reported today, a sharp drop from previous days. Today's totals aren't included in the charts, yet.

[Encircled]

The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

[Canoerebel]

Univ. of Washington graph for today.

New deaths reported is above projection but within the margin of error. That seems to be the norm for the European countries (notably not the UK), as we've discussed in here. Not as much confidence in this source for this continent as for the US.

Could the problem (assuming there is one) be the model, an error in data included or excluded, or how the host country reports?

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Nomad

ORIGINAL: witpqs

This is the basic choice for the US.

Is America a Roaring Giant or Crying Baby?

I sure hope we pick door #1

Judging by some of the proposals in this article I sure hope we pick neither. Somewhere in between please.

warspite1

I read the article....

Just another one of those - this is what we should do without paying any attention to how that is actually to be achieved.

The US failed to learn from the UK. The UK had a head start on everyone, was the world's first industrialised country and thought the sun would never set. Even as countries, hungry to compete - began to encroach and then take over from the UK, the warning signs weren't heeded.

Other countries learned, and improved - they did things better, more cheaply and...... USA (and the west generally) saw it happen - hell they were the beneficiaries of the UK's seeming inability to react.

Then what happened to the self-satisfied UK, happened to the equally bloated west, as Asia awoke - led by Japan. Massively successful corporations like General Motors having more people on the pension roll than were actually making cars.

Sure, America can hark back to better times - but if that harking back is to be turned into practical solutions to turn things around its going to take more than a few wistful memories of the USA's impressive response to Pearl.

[Canoerebel]

New York is near peak.

The Univ. of Washington projection is almost right on.

It looks like U. Wash. updated the NY projection through yesterday's tally, as shown by the solid line. If adjusted daily to reflect actual numbers, it should be that much more up to date/reliable.

Margin of error for NY remains pretty significant. Death toll projected overall for this state is significantly lower than it was last weekend.

[Canoerebel]

Univ. of Washington projection for the US. On the 9th, reported new deaths were less than projected, by a bit.

While the NY projection seems to have been re-calibrated through the 9th, the US projection looks like it was last updated on the 7th. Since then, the projections and daily reports have been close.

As posted last night, Dr. Fauci seemed to rely on this source for his own projection comments yesterday.

[Encircled]

I have to admit Dan, I'd be a lot happier with these predictions when we have a lot more data.

But it does look encouraging.

[Canoerebel]

The Univ. of Washington track record for the US graphs (but not European) is strong. Dr. Fauci is using it, as noted last night and last week. He's in the spotlight under great scrutiny, so presumably he's both cautious and confident. The press seems comfortable with it too. So there's a measure of confidence far beyond what I could contribute.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: obvert

A few bumps, but overall, especially at times that invite more international participation, the thread is very productive. I notice no conflict at all between the hours of 06:00 GMT and about 10:00 GMT. [;)]

Is there any time soon that you intend to dial back your offensive commentary?

I'll wait for a civil response before applying the green button.

I think you only copied a portion of my statement. I edited it for you. It's not intended to be offensive. Just observatory.

I also noticed the timecode on your post, GMT.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

As the reports from Italy have shown, as those from John Dillworth in NYC have shown, as Cap Mandrake reported yesterday it's a lot different when you're in the middle of a hotspot or a frontline position for this. We in the UK seem to be in the thick of it by the numbers, and yet much of the nation seems to be holding the line well, keeping spirits up somewhat, and (fingers crossed) the NHS seems to have had enough time to at least not collapse through this so far.

We have another week until the predicted peak.

The IHME prediction again comes in well over actual mortality numbers, but I'm cautious. It is a particularly worrisome prediction, and even if it's off, anywhere near the top side of the numbers would still be very bad.

All through this it's been hard to really come to terms with the personal experience vs the community experience, especially since we can't really "see" the community. It's sunny here which is again causing some to have backyard barbecues against the distancing order, and there were a lot of reports of house parties last weekend. Lets hope most of the cases those generated are mild, and the severe ones won't need hospitals until after April 17.

[RangerJoe]

I tend to post what I see, no matter the country, no matter the source if I consider it reliable enough.

You don't have to be an expert to make sense of this although having experts in the various fields comment here does help. Too bad Chickenboy does not return. We also have a MD in the front lines, so to speak, as well as an expert in handling the emergency response system.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

As the reports from Italy have shown, as those from John Dillworth in NYC have shown, as Cap Mandrake reported yesterday it's a lot different when you're in the middle of a hotspot or a frontline position for this. We in the UK seem to be in the thick of it by the numbers, and yet much of the nation seems to be holding the line well, keeping spirits up somewhat, and (fingers crossed) the NHS seems to have had enough time to at least not collapse through this so far.

We have another week until the predicted peak.

The IHME prediction again comes in well over actual mortality numbers, but I'm cautious. It is a particularly worrisome prediction, and even if it's off, anywhere near the top side of the numbers would still be very bad.

All through this it's been hard to really come to terms with the personal experience vs the community experience, especially since we can't really "see" the community. It's sunny here which is again causing some to have backyard barbecues against the distancing order, and there were a lot of reports of house parties last weekend. Lets hope most of the cases those generated are mild, and the severe ones won't need hospitals until after April 17.

Maybe you should hope for some cold, rainy/snowy weather. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

Compared the Univ. of Washington daily projections for the UK against numbers actually reported. The source consistently overestimates daily mortality, usually by large margins. A few examples:

April 6 projected 1258, actual 439.
April 8 projected 1433, actual 938.

The UK projection was last updated on April 5. It's due for an update. It seems probable a sharp reduction in total mortality projected (66,314) will ensue.

This a US model. No doubt there are UK models that are relied on there.

[obvert]

I just wanted to repost the below to highlight one of our own combating this daily. Just saw you on this morning Cap. Hope you got a martini and some rest.

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

Working in our "fever clinic" today. All the pediatricians in the group (14 or 15) screen their patients by telehealth and the ones they are worried about they send here.

If I think they need Covid screening I send them over to our "Drive-in" in Yorba Linda. Working in a gown, face shield and N-95 mask wears you out. We have to reuse everything except the gloves. It's totally 3rd world.[:)] 5 hrs of this crap and I am worn out. 4 to go. Never wanted a martini this bad before.

I read some first hand reports no this. I can't imagine the discomfort and stress.

At 8pm here we open doors and windows and do a cheer around the neighbourhoods for the NHS workers. Here is one for you, Cap. [&o][&o][&o]

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Encircled

The drone shots today over the burial pits in New York is an uncomfortable watch.

Makes it hard to think that in the bigger picture, the measures appear to be working.

As the reports from Italy have shown, as those from John Dillworth in NYC have shown, as Cap Mandrake reported yesterday it's a lot different when you're in the middle of a hotspot or a frontline position for this. We in the UK seem to be in the thick of it by the numbers, and yet much of the nation seems to be holding the line well, keeping spirits up somewhat, and (fingers crossed) the NHS seems to have had enough time to at least not collapse through this so far.

We have another week until the predicted peak.

The IHME prediction again comes in well over actual mortality numbers, but I'm cautious. It is a particularly worrisome prediction, and even if it's off, anywhere near the top side of the numbers would still be very bad.

All through this it's been hard to really come to terms with the personal experience vs the community experience, especially since we can't really "see" the community. It's sunny here which is again causing some to have backyard barbecues against the distancing order, and there were a lot of reports of house parties last weekend. Lets hope most of the cases those generated are mild, and the severe ones won't need hospitals until after April 17.

Maybe you should hope for some cold, rainy/snowy weather. [;)]

That would be very good for the curve I think! [:D]

(However, not so good for the lettuce and tomatoes, but I can deal with that and a more flattened curve). [;)]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I tend to post what I see, no matter the country, no matter the source if I consider it reliable enough.

You don't have to be an expert to make sense of this although having experts in the various fields comment here does help. Too bad Chickenboy does not return. We also have a MD in the front lines, so to speak, as well as an expert in handling the emergency response system.

+1

In the US, the sense of crisis really began to mature in February. A flood of information was coming out. Most of it alarming.

Knowing the diversity of the Forum community, and in particular the expertise of several members (as Ranger points out), I started this thread on 2/26, just as things were beginning to improve in China and deteriorate in South Korea. In many ways it was dawn.

My three children are in their 20s and haven't been through anything like this before. I wrote them describing some prior events (SARS, H1N1) that might give an idea as to how these things play out. Given the proclivity of the media for sensationalizing and politicizing, I turned to you all. Hard data and the collective input from this community seemed to offer a more mature and reliable measure of what was going on and what might happen.

Weekly and sometimes daily reports to my kids have been mostly taken from information posted here by so many contributors. Because of you, those reports have been consistently more optimistic and realistic than what they'd otherwise be getting through the media and social media. Consequently, they've had a better handle on this, complying assiduously with the regulations but not controlled by the hysteria of social media.

We're still in the thick of it, especially some countries and states and cities, but things are beginning to come into focus, especially in places like Italy, Spain, and much of the US.

Thank you for contributing.

[obvert]

Here is a very good visual that is interactive. I don't think I can embed it here on the forum, so I've taken a screenshot, but have a visit. It includes a lot of countries from all over, and when you scroll over isolates them.

Cases are starting to flatten here in the UK, and Patrick Valance said last night that hospitals are now seeing only a doubling of admissions for Covid every 6 days.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infect ... d19-curve/

[MakeeLearn]

England

[MakeeLearn]

There is a more deadly virus,,,

Annual Global Road Crash Statistics

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. An additional 20-50 million are injured or disabled. More than half of all road traffic deaths occur among young adults ages 15-44.