OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Until you have enough people infected then recovered, you will not reach heard immunity.

Last I heard, herd immunity may not be achievable because the antibodies do not stay in the system more than a few months. We will know more if anyone bothers to track re-infections of patients.

I heard of one case that the patient said was his second bout with the virus but that was early on when they were not testing people who had already been diagnosed by their doctor. So the patient convalesced at home, recovered, went back to work and a month or so later got it again and was hospitalized. It's possible the initial diagnosis was wrong though - doctors were just learning about the virus and symptoms too.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It is me and my parents and my children, just like you and yours and just like everyone else.

This is a weird environment. Making the obvious point that mortality is more severe than sickness triggers quibbling.

Most people who come down with this recover; many are asymptomatic or have mild cases; and a considerably smaller percentage will suffer long-term consequences or die. Since its better to not die than to die, it's better that mortality is low rather than high. Ergo, mortality is the bottom line and the key indicator. As noted above, and as everybody here acknowledges, vanquishing the virus is the ultimate goal. Until that's accomplished, it's better to be sick than dead, and to be mildly sick than seriously. So while increasing case rates are important, they aren't as important as mortality if the two continue (as they have for months) at diverging rates.

No one is saying mortality is not the worst outcome. We are saying the pandemic and its economic impacts will not be solved by getting mortality to 0, but by getting the rate of infection and number of cases to an acceptable number. There is lots to fear about this virus even if we keep it from being deadly.

[BBfanboy]

On another front, Iraq is having a surging COVID infection and their hospitals are filled up, so people are having to care for their sick loved ones at home. Consequently, fights have broken out at the place where the hospitals provide oxygen tanks for those at home patients - there are not enough tanks for the demand. A sign of things to come if we do not get this wave of infections under control in North America?

[Canoerebel]

Everyone knows the virus is a threat at every level, and must be dealt with holistically/comprehensively. But for some reason some quibble with the proposition that mortality is the paramount consideration. Maybe I should start a "Mortality is Paramount, the Virus is Serious at All Levels, Non-Political Covid Thread."

[:)]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It is me and my parents and my children, just like you and yours and just like everyone else.

This is a weird environment. Making the obvious point that mortality is more severe than sickness triggers quibbling.

Most people who come down with this recover; many are asymptomatic or have mild cases; and a considerably smaller percentage will suffer long-term consequences or die. Since its better to not die than to die, it's better that mortality is low rather than high. Ergo, mortality is the bottom line and the key indicator. As noted above, and as everybody here acknowledges, vanquishing the virus is the ultimate goal. Until that's accomplished, it's better to be sick than dead, and to be mildly sick than seriously. So while increasing case rates are important, they aren't as important as mortality if the two continue (as they have for months) at diverging rates.

No one is saying mortality is not the worst outcome. We are saying the pandemic and its economic impacts will not be solved by getting mortality to 0, but by getting the rate of infection and number of cases to an acceptable number. There is lots to fear about this virus even if we keep it from being deadly.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Making the obvious point that mortality is more severe than sickness triggers quibbling.

This is not a point I'm disputing. I'm looking at the objective increase in case numbers and noting that this rise equates to more suffering and death regardless of mortality rates. Mortality rates are not known now and won't be known for some time for these cases, so mortality rates are not an important indicator right now. It can take up to a month for mortality to show up from a new case, and we have no idea if this will be the same if a younger population is being infected.

What is most important, and the leading indicator of success in fighting this, is keeping people from getting sick in the first place.

You seem very content to watch case numbers rise and continue to say all is well and peachy where you are and reopening is going fine since mortality rates are dropping. That is what I'm disputing.

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

"Case numbers are rising but mortality is steadily falling. It made sense to ease countermeasures when it was done and, to this point, the results have been good."

"Despite the increase in cases and the media feeding frenzy, mortality continues to drop in Georgia and the US. The 7-day rolling average for the US dropped below 590 today, about 25% of its peak levels in mid- and late April. "

"On the other hand, the cases have been rising in Georgia for a long time without a shift in mortality. I think the key is that its been largely kept out of nursing homes. So, yes, younger people affected but not in such a way that the older folks can't be protected (maybe).

... I really like the way my state and county has handled things, given the uncertainties and tough balancing needed. We may simply be lucky or they may have been more to it than that. There's complete dissonance between life here and what's being showed on the media. I think most places in rural America are just like here, but that's just a hunch. "

The US as a whole is struggling to contain this after reopenings and that is a worry. In Georgia you've just had seven days in a row with more than double the highest previous seven day average period (from April) of new cases.

Things aren't going well now, and any expert in the US or elsewhere will tell you that. Even if the case fatality rate is lower than it was in the spring this kind of increase is going to be really hard to contain and a percentage of those cases will not survive.

Some states are now realising this in a big way, and have completely reversed their positions on how to reopen. My guess is that Georgia will as well.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Until you have enough people infected then recovered, you will not reach heard immunity.

Last I heard, herd immunity may not be achievable because the antibodies do not stay in the system more than a few months. We will know more if anyone bothers to track re-infections of patients.

I heard of one case that the patient said was his second bout with the virus but that was early on when they were not testing people who had already been diagnosed by their doctor. So the patient convalesced at home, recovered, went back to work and a month or so later got it again and was hospitalized. It's possible the initial diagnosis was wrong though - doctors were just learning about the virus and symptoms too.

I've heard that some studies have found that even those with no antibodies currently that have had the disease will then manufacture them almost immediately if it is re-exposed. I'll try to find a link later.

[RangerJoe]

with no antibodies currently that have had the disease will then manufacture them almost immediately if it is re-exposed

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Until you have enough people infected then recovered, you will not reach heard immunity.

Last I heard, herd immunity may not be achievable because the antibodies do not stay in the system more than a few months. We will know more if anyone bothers to track re-infections of patients.

I heard of one case that the patient said was his second bout with the virus but that was early on when they were not testing people who had already been diagnosed by their doctor. So the patient convalesced at home, recovered, went back to work and a month or so later got it again and was hospitalized. It's possible the initial diagnosis was wrong though - doctors were just learning about the virus and symptoms too.

I've heard that some studies have found that even those with no antibodies currently that have had the disease will then manufacture them almost immediately if it is re-exposed. I'll try to find a link later.

Updated: July 2, 2020Published: March, 2020

If you've been exposed to the coronavirus
If you've been exposed, are sick, or are caring for someone with COVID-19

Most people who are infected with the COVID-19 virus, whether or not they have symptoms, produce antibodies (proteins that fight infections). New research published in Nature Medicine looked at how long those antibodies last. Results from this small study suggest that levels of one type of antibody dropped sharply within two to three months. However, the decrease in neutralizing antibodies, which target the spike protein on the coronavirus and can help protect against reinfection, was much smaller.

Whether or not the remaining antibodies protect against reinfection, and for how long, is still unclear. It's possible that even low levels of neutralizing antibodies may be able to protect against reinfection. On the other hand, the presence of antibodies does not guarantee immunity.

Another consideration is that antibodies are only one part of the body's immune response. Memory B cells, for example, can quickly generate a strong antibody response to a virus the body has encountered before.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases ... oronavirus

[Canoerebel]

I find the diverging mortality rate interesting and possibly compelling, so I've given it due consideration. There's no danger that people will take their eye off rising case numbers, given the scrutiny here and nationally and worldwide. Now you have become repeatedly personally offensive, Erik, suggesting that I'm content to "watch case numbers rise," implying it is easy for me to say these things while others (you, apparently) are more personally invested in this, previously saying my views were "dangerous," commenting that by defending my understanding of the situation in Georgia and the South I'm being too "defensive," etc.

Give the environment, I'll bow out of this thread for awhile to reconsider my views and figure out if there's anything to be gained here.

[RangerJoe]

This is from a blogger:

Finding Antibodies that Neutralize SARS-CoV-2
Posted on June 30th, 2020 by Dr. Francis Collins

It’s now clear that nearly everyone who recovers from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) produces antibodies that specifically target SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes the infection. Yet many critical questions remain. A major one is: just how well do those particular antibodies neutralize the virus to fight off the infection and help someone recover from COVID-19? Fortunately, most people get better—but should the typical antibody response take the credit?

A new NIH-funded study of nearly 150 people who recovered from COVID-19 offers some essential insight. The study, published in the journal Nature, shows that most people, in fact, do produce antibodies that can effectively neutralize SARS-CoV-2. But there is a catch: 99 percent of the study’s participants didn’t make enough neutralizing antibodies to mount an ideal immune response.

The good news is that when researchers looked at individuals who mounted a strong immune response, they were able to identify three antibodies (depicted above) that were extremely effective at neutralizing SARS-CoV-2. By mass-producing copies of these antibodies as so-called monoclonal antibodies, the researchers can now better evaluate their potential as treatments to help people who don’t make strongly neutralizing antibodies, or not enough of them.
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.
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Not surprisingly, all volunteers had produced antibodies in response to the virus. To test the strength of the antibodies, the researchers used a special assay that shows how effective each one is at blocking the virus from infecting human cells in lab dishes.

Overall, most of the plasma samples—118 of 149—showed at best poor to modest neutralizing activity. In about one-third of individuals, their plasma samples had below detectable levels of neutralizing activity. It’s possible those individuals just resolved the infection quickly, before more potent antibodies were produced.

More intriguing to the researchers were the results from two individuals that showed an unusually strong ability to neutralize SARS-CoV-2. Among these two “elite responders” and four other individuals, the researchers identified 40 different antibodies that could neutralize SARS-CoV-2. But again, not all antibodies are created equal. Three neutralized the virus even when present at extremely low levels, and they now will be studied further as possible monoclonal antibodies.

The team determined that those strongly neutralizing antibodies bind three distinct sites on the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the coronavirus spike protein. This portion of the virus is important because it allows SARS-CoV-2 to bind and infect human cells. Importantly, when the researchers looked more closely at plasma samples with poor neutralizing ability, they found that they also contained those RBD-binding antibodies, just not in very large numbers.

These findings help not only to understand the immune response to COVID-19, they are also critical for vaccine design, revealing what a strong neutralizing antibody for SARS-CoV-2 should look like to help the immune system win. If a candidate vaccine can generate such strongly neutralizing antibodies, researchers will know that they are on the right track.

While this research showed that there’s a lot of variability in immune responses to SARS-CoV-2, it appears that most of us are inherently capable of producing antibodies to neutralize this devastating virus. That brings more reason for hope that the many vaccines now under study to elicit such neutralizing antibodies in sufficient numbers may afford us with much-needed immune protection.

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/tag/antibodies/

[RangerJoe]

If you read the interviews below the blog, those are very informative as well.

[BBfanboy]

Thanks for the info on antibodies RJ - very interesting. A ray of hope with a lot of complications to be overcome first. Wouldn't it be great of the research comes up with a way of neutralizing all manner of viruses!

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Thanks for the info on antibodies RJ - very interesting. A ray of hope with a lot of complications to be overcome first. Wouldn't it be great of the research comes up with a way of neutralizing all manner of viruses!

You are welcome.

That is the hope. They are working on a vaccine for the spike protein, they are also working on a universal flu vaccine. One of the antibodies for the SARs Covid-1 actually offers some protection against Covid-19. Because some of the antibodies against one disease may work on others, those antibodies should be the ones that are looked at for the body to produce. That might also explain why some people get really ill and others do not. As long as we have no more "Typhoid Marys" we should be fine.

Stay safe, stay cool, stay hydrated my friend.

[RangerJoe]

As long as we don't have to kiss them:

How antibodies from llamas may lead to COVID-19 treatment
June 11, 2020

Rocky and Marley are used to the company of scientists. Like many other members of their species, the two llamas, living in pastures in rural Massachusetts, have for many years participated in research aimed to harness the wonders of their immune system. Today, however, the stately creatures are facing an unprecedented level of international attention: scientists hope the special antibodies that llamas make can be directed against SARS-CoV-2 to help find our way out of the pandemic.

Humans, too, make antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and many groups are working on developing treatments based on them. Llama antibodies, however, come in a simpler design than their human counterparts. “For reasons that we don’t really understand, these animals make this variant of antibody that just has fantastic properties,” says Michael P. Rout, a structural biologist at Rockefeller. “It contains the good disease-recognizing parts of a human antibody, packed into a condensed warhead.”

This “warhead” is just one-tenth the size of a normal antibody, and can be cloned out to form miniature antibodies, termed nanobodies. Easy to mass-produce, nanobodies are an attractive source for developing treatments that boost people’s immunity to a particular pathogen. “We need doses of therapeutics and diagnostic tests for many millions of people,” says biochemist Brian T. Chait. “Nanobodies could become one more weapon in our arsenal against COVID-19, and potentially a widely available one.”

https://www.rockefeller.edu/news/28238- ... -research/

I wonder if that university was founded by that great environmentalist, John D. Rockefeller?

Edit: Listen to the video as well.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I find the diverging mortality rate interesting and possibly compelling, so I've given it due consideration. There's no danger that people will take their eye off rising case numbers, given the scrutiny here and nationally and worldwide. Now you have become repeatedly personally offensive, Erik, suggesting that I'm content to "watch case numbers rise," implying it is easy for me to say these things while others (you, apparently) are more personally invested in this, previously saying my views were "dangerous," commenting that by defending my understanding of the situation in Georgia and the South I'm being too "defensive," etc.

Give the environment, I'll bow out of this thread for awhile to reconsider my views and figure out if there's anything to be gained here.

Just responding to your words. If what I am saying bothers you, I'm sorry, it's all taken from your own posts.

[obvert]

This is the kind of thing that worries me. There are so many unknowns involved in recovery even when cases are not critically severe.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... 19-fatigue

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Anecdotal reports have abounded of people left with fatigue, aching muscles and difficulty concentrating. Online support groups on Facebook and Slack have sprung up, already hosting thousands of members who say they have not got better.

Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Matt Hancock said it was difficult to gauge the scale of the problem. “This is a really serious problem for a minority of people who have Covid,” the health secretary said. “Some people have long-term effects that look like a post-viral fatigue syndrome.”

Scientists are only just beginning to investigate the potential causes of enduring fatigue, but say that there are likely to be a wide variety of reasons why some people face a longer road to recovery.[/font]

This is also heart-wrenching. Actor Nick Cordero dies after 90 days in hospital with Covid, at age 41. So sad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... plications

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

with no antibodies currently that have had the disease will then manufacture them almost immediately if it is re-exposed

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy



Last I heard, herd immunity may not be achievable because the antibodies do not stay in the system more than a few months. We will know more if anyone bothers to track re-infections of patients.

I heard of one case that the patient said was his second bout with the virus but that was early on when they were not testing people who had already been diagnosed by their doctor. So the patient convalesced at home, recovered, went back to work and a month or so later got it again and was hospitalized. It's possible the initial diagnosis was wrong though - doctors were just learning about the virus and symptoms too.

I've heard that some studies have found that even those with no antibodies currently that have had the disease will then manufacture them almost immediately if it is re-exposed. I'll try to find a link later.

Updated: July 2, 2020Published: March, 2020

If you've been exposed to the coronavirus
If you've been exposed, are sick, or are caring for someone with COVID-19

Most people who are infected with the COVID-19 virus, whether or not they have symptoms, produce antibodies (proteins that fight infections). New research published in Nature Medicine looked at how long those antibodies last. Results from this small study suggest that levels of one type of antibody dropped sharply within two to three months. However, the decrease in neutralizing antibodies, which target the spike protein on the coronavirus and can help protect against reinfection, was much smaller.

Whether or not the remaining antibodies protect against reinfection, and for how long, is still unclear. It's possible that even low levels of neutralizing antibodies may be able to protect against reinfection. On the other hand, the presence of antibodies does not guarantee immunity.

Another consideration is that antibodies are only one part of the body's immune response. Memory B cells, for example, can quickly generate a strong antibody response to a virus the body has encountered before.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases ... oronavirus

That's it, thanks!

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

with no antibodies currently that have had the disease will then manufacture them almost immediately if it is re-exposed

ORIGINAL: obvert




I've heard that some studies have found that even those with no antibodies currently that have had the disease will then manufacture them almost immediately if it is re-exposed. I'll try to find a link later.

Updated: July 2, 2020Published: March, 2020

If you've been exposed to the coronavirus
If you've been exposed, are sick, or are caring for someone with COVID-19

Most people who are infected with the COVID-19 virus, whether or not they have symptoms, produce antibodies (proteins that fight infections). New research published in Nature Medicine looked at how long those antibodies last. Results from this small study suggest that levels of one type of antibody dropped sharply within two to three months. However, the decrease in neutralizing antibodies, which target the spike protein on the coronavirus and can help protect against reinfection, was much smaller.

Whether or not the remaining antibodies protect against reinfection, and for how long, is still unclear. It's possible that even low levels of neutralizing antibodies may be able to protect against reinfection. On the other hand, the presence of antibodies does not guarantee immunity.

Another consideration is that antibodies are only one part of the body's immune response. Memory B cells, for example, can quickly generate a strong antibody response to a virus the body has encountered before.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases ... oronavirus

That's it, thanks!

You are welcome.

[Cheesesteak]

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the kind of thing that worries me. There are so many unknowns involved in recovery even when cases are not critically severe.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... 19-fatigue

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Anecdotal reports have abounded of people left with fatigue, aching muscles and difficulty concentrating. Online support groups on Facebook and Slack have sprung up, already hosting thousands of members who say they have not got better.

Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Matt Hancock said it was difficult to gauge the scale of the problem. “This is a really serious problem for a minority of people who have Covid,” the health secretary said. “Some people have long-term effects that look like a post-viral fatigue syndrome.”

Scientists are only just beginning to investigate the potential causes of enduring fatigue, but say that there are likely to be a wide variety of reasons why some people face a longer road to recovery.[/font]

This is also heart-wrenching. Actor Nick Cordero dies after 90 days in hospital with Covid, at age 41. So sad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... plications

So many unknowns. I have some dr friends who are genuinely worried, others who focus in on the "anecdotal" aspect. How is a layman to know when the pro's disagree?

Regarding mortality/case count disparities, here is a collection of tweets alleging one possible explanation. I say 'alleging' and 'possible' because anything digested from the Twitterverse should always be taken with more than one grain of salt.

https://imgur.com/gallery/nmF80ov

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the kind of thing that worries me. There are so many unknowns involved in recovery even when cases are not critically severe.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... 19-fatigue

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Anecdotal reports have abounded of people left with fatigue, aching muscles and difficulty concentrating. Online support groups on Facebook and Slack have sprung up, already hosting thousands of members who say they have not got better.

Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Matt Hancock said it was difficult to gauge the scale of the problem. “This is a really serious problem for a minority of people who have Covid,” the health secretary said. “Some people have long-term effects that look like a post-viral fatigue syndrome.”

Scientists are only just beginning to investigate the potential causes of enduring fatigue, but say that there are likely to be a wide variety of reasons why some people face a longer road to recovery.[/font]

This is also heart-wrenching. Actor Nick Cordero dies after 90 days in hospital with Covid, at age 41. So sad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... plications

So many unknowns. I have some dr friends who are genuinely worried, others who focus in on the "anecdotal" aspect. How is a layman to know when the pro's disagree?

Regarding mortality/case count disparities, here is a collection of tweets alleging one possible explanation. I say 'alleging' and 'possible' because anything digested from the Twitterverse should always be taken with more than one grain of salt.

https://imgur.com/gallery/nmF80ov

That is why medicine is called an art and not a science. It is based upon science but it is still an art.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

ORIGINAL: obvert

This is the kind of thing that worries me. There are so many unknowns involved in recovery even when cases are not critically severe.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... 19-fatigue

[font="Trebuchet MS"]Anecdotal reports have abounded of people left with fatigue, aching muscles and difficulty concentrating. Online support groups on Facebook and Slack have sprung up, already hosting thousands of members who say they have not got better.

Speaking to the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show on Sunday, Matt Hancock said it was difficult to gauge the scale of the problem. “This is a really serious problem for a minority of people who have Covid,” the health secretary said. “Some people have long-term effects that look like a post-viral fatigue syndrome.”

Scientists are only just beginning to investigate the potential causes of enduring fatigue, but say that there are likely to be a wide variety of reasons why some people face a longer road to recovery.[/font]

This is also heart-wrenching. Actor Nick Cordero dies after 90 days in hospital with Covid, at age 41. So sad.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... plications

So many unknowns. I have some dr friends who are genuinely worried, others who focus in on the "anecdotal" aspect. How is a layman to know when the pro's disagree?

Regarding mortality/case count disparities, here is a collection of tweets alleging one possible explanation. I say 'alleging' and 'possible' because anything digested from the Twitterverse should always be taken with more than one grain of salt.

https://imgur.com/gallery/nmF80ov

This is a great find. This part below seems most critical. Of course it's many isolated outbreaks with their own curves and rates, which looked at closely and regionally has a very different look than the national data compiled.