OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version

[JohnDillworth]

Florida is still obscuring statistics. All of a sudden they don't want to report hospitalizations but are more than willing to force schools open. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 48107.html

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Florida is still obscuring statistics. All of a sudden they don't want to report hospitalizations but are more than willing to force schools open. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 48107.html

Maybe this is why:

State health department officials have told researchers that the department does not track current hospitalizations.

But if you need a hospital bed in Florida, check here:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/v ... %3Aembed=y

Also, maybe there are rules not allowing said reporting.

[moore4807]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Florida is still obscuring statistics. All of a sudden they don't want to report hospitalizations but are more than willing to force schools open. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/corona ... 48107.html

Maybe this is why:

State health department officials have told researchers that the department does not track current hospitalizations.

But if you need a hospital bed in Florida, check here:

https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/v ... %3Aembed=y

Also, maybe there are rules not allowing said reporting.

About two months ago the woman in charge of the statistics for the Dept. of Health suddenly was moved to another Dept. and she went public that she was replaced because her boss told her to fudge the numbers and she refused. THEN Hillsborough County Medical Examiner produced a letter from Head of Health Dept. instructing each County to STOP reporting hospitalizations and deaths, and forward the info to the Dept of Health instead. The Health Dept. Head and Gov. DeSantis denied it, so the Hillsborough County Medical Examiner called a press conference and showed the press the letter... talk about getting caught lying.

The Tampa paper is supposedly suing the state of Florida for the Covid-19 info to be made public, I haven't heard anything about it since then.

[RangerJoe]

Novavax gets $1.6B from government to develop coronavirus vaccine
July 7, 2020

The feds have committed $1.6 billion to help biotech firm Novavax develop its coronavirus vaccine and produce 100 million doses, potentially starting later this year.
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The money will help Novavax kickstart production of its vaccine candidate, known as NVX-CoV2373, and fund a phase 3 clinical trial with up to 30,000 participants that is slated to begin in the fall. That study will be crucial to determining whether the vaccine is safe and effective.

Novavax has yet to announce results from its early-stage trial that started in Australia in May, though it expects to have preliminary data by the end of this month. The Maryland-based company’s agreement with the feds will require it to prove it can manufacture the vaccine on a large scale and distribute large quantities of it when needed, according to a news release.
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The race for a vaccine that could help end the deadly global pandemic has so far produced 149 candidates, including 19 that are in clinical evaluation, according to the World Health Organization.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/07/novavax-g ... s-vaccine/

[sPzAbt653]

EPA is committed to identifying new tools and providing accurate and up-to-date information to help the American public

Well, everyone already knows that Lysol works, so the EPA can be added to the list of official bodies that are really doing nothing to actually help the public.

... she went public that she was replaced because her boss told her to fudge the numbers ...

Similar story to that in China when medical personnel attempted to inform the public of the virus [as seen in the video linked in post #635]. They were accused of rumor-mongering. [X(]

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

EPA is committed to identifying new tools and providing accurate and up-to-date information to help the American public

Well, everyone already knows that Lysol works, so the EPA can be added to the list of official bodies that are really doing nothing to actually help the public.

It has been tested and it can now advertise it. How many "cleaners" don't actually disinfect?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.

I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.

I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.

NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

[durnedwolf]

Man - this stuff just keeps on giving...

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/scientists-warn-of-potential-brain-damage-linked-to-covid-19

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive

Sorry I maybe didn't explain myself very well. The author was suggesting that the US would see "dozens of NYCs around the country". I don't think that will be the case - my expectation is that in this 'first wave' Texas/California/Florida/Arizona/Georgia will end up with deaths/million similar to states like Michigan/Illinois (and indeed similar to Sweden who did not lockdown at all) - i.e. around 500-600 deaths/million. I don't think they will end up like NY.

IHME have updated again - they are now forecasting 208k deaths by November 1. The October 1 forecast has gone up a little (c.180-185k). UK has gone up also. With the extra month added the different predictions with universal masks are even more stark - 45k lives saved in the US and 20k in the UK. I don't understand why both governments are not being more proactive in mandating masks in most shared public spaces.

I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.

NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

Yup, New York did not start well but adjusted quickly. Overall, 20% of Covid deaths in NY state were in nursing homes. 20% As opposed to the nation average of 42%. As far as I can tell New York State had the lowest percentage of Covid Nursing home deaths in the country. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

[JohnDillworth]

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating

You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating

You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating

You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442

Yes, the US has a lot more testing capabilities and are using them.

[BBfanboy]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: obvert



I did understand what you were saying and showing. It's just unclear how the US is going to stop the kinds of outbreaks that NY had if cases continue to grow. In NY it all happened in the dark, unseen, and seemed to explode. Now it's happening in clear view of increased testing (though still probably not enough) and we're all too aware of where unchecked growth of cases leads.

NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

Yup, New York did not start well but adjusted quickly. Overall, 20% of Covid deaths in NY state were in nursing homes. 20% As opposed to the nation average of 42%. As far as I can tell New York State had the lowest percentage of Covid Nursing home deaths in the country. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

One thing apparent about nursing home deaths from COVID-19 in Canada is that the publicly run homes or the privately run homes in provinces with lots of regulations and inspections of the homes did much better than the for-profit run homes in Provinces that have minimal regulations and very few inspectors. People rail about the tax cost of regulations and civil servants hired as inspectors, but there is also a cost in lives and the quality of life of our seniors if we fail to do these things. Very few businesses will spend more than they are absolutely required to because the market demands maximum profit.

Most of Canadas dismal record on nursing home deaths came from two provinces. For comparison, Manitoba has had 7 deaths for 312 cases - something like 2.2%- while Canada's overall death rate from COVID is around 8%. And while most businesses have reopened in Manitoba, we still use distancing and masks without any argument. Nursing homes here are allowing one visitor at a time, by appointment, with distancing, masks and supervision by staff. Still no hugs allowed.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

It took the United States 100 days to reach 1 Million Covid cases. It too only 43 days to hit 2 million cases. We just hit 3 million. It took 17 days to go from 2 million to 3 million. The rate of infection is accelerating

You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442

IHME is showing estimated infections based on some metric between actual positive tests, supposed asymptomatic and untested cases. It's currently at around 79k estimated/day. Their range is between 68k-92k/day.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe



NYC also happened before the treatment was known. Weren't people ill with the coronavirus in NYC sent to nursing homes where many other people became ill and many died?

This time of year in the Northern Hemisphere, people outside will get a lot more vitamin D which will help their immune system, among other things.

Yup, New York did not start well but adjusted quickly. Overall, 20% of Covid deaths in NY state were in nursing homes. 20% As opposed to the nation average of 42%. As far as I can tell New York State had the lowest percentage of Covid Nursing home deaths in the country. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... homes.html

One thing apparent about nursing home deaths from COVID-19 in Canada is that the publicly run homes or the privately run homes in provinces with lots of regulations and inspections of the homes did much better than the for-profit run homes in Provinces that have minimal regulations and very few inspectors. People rail about the tax cost of regulations and civil servants hired as inspectors, but there is also a cost in lives and the quality of life of our seniors if we fail to do these things. Very few businesses will spend more than they are absolutely required to because the market demands maximum profit.

Most of Canadas dismal record on nursing home deaths came from two provinces. For comparison, Manitoba has had 7 deaths for 312 cases - something like 2.2%- while Canada's overall death rate from COVID is around 8%. And while most businesses have reopened in Manitoba, we still use distancing and masks without any argument. Nursing homes here are allowing one visitor at a time, by appointment, with distancing, masks and supervision by staff. Still no hugs allowed.

I am surprised that they would not allow Hersheys hugs. If they were still in the plastic, airtight bag, the bag could be sterilized and whenever the resident needed a hug, one could be given. Same thing for the kisses. [;)]

Yes, there is a good reason for reasonable regulations. Just read "The Jungle" by Upton Sinclair.

[Sammy5IsAlive]

ORIGINAL: obvert

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe




You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442

IHME is showing estimated infections based on some metric between actual positive tests, supposed asymptomatic and untested cases. It's currently at around 79k estimated/day. Their range is between 68k-92k/day.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

I think the thing with cases is there is very little scientific consensus on a) the numbers of asymptomatic infections that are not getting captured in the case numbers and b) the extent to which those carriers are able to pass on infections (whether directly or indirectly) towards the more vulnerable demographics.

Looking at how the IHME forecasts have responded to the 'real-time' data I think they are according far more weight to the more concrete mortality data than to what is much more uncertain speculation as to infection numbers.

I checked their historic forecasts for August 1 a couple of weeks ago and I think there was only one or two forecasts which were accurate to the actual number of deaths. All the rest were underestimates, many by a significant margin. My expectation is that that pattern will continue to be the case, albeit not to such a large extent.

[JohnDillworth]

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe



You are reporting known cases only. How many cases were there that resolved themselves that weren't known?

Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442

Yes, the US has a lot more testing capabilities and are using them.

Testing is up 37% and infections are up 152% So more testing is not the problem. more infections is the problem. Infections are outpacing testing by a huge margin. 37% more testing should result in 37% more infections found if your theory is correct.

Deaths are staring to catch up with cases. Arizona and Louisiana are seeing district upticks, Texas reported a new record for deaths today. 12 states have record hospitalizations. Must be more testing causing record hospitalizations and deaths. Yup, testing is causing record death

[RangerJoe]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth


Probably lots but that is the common tracking metric we have.

Yesterday new cases reported as follows:
Norway: 10
Denmark: 11
Sweden: 57
Germany: 298
U.S.: 55,442

Yes, the US has a lot more testing capabilities and are using them.

Testing is up 37% and infections are up 152% So more testing is not the problem. more infections is the problem. Infections are outpacing testing by a huge margin. 37% more testing should result in 37% more infections found if your theory is correct.

Deaths are staring to catch up with cases. Arizona and Louisiana are seeing district upticks, Texas reported a new record for deaths today. 12 states have record hospitalizations. Must be more testing causing record hospitalizations and deaths. Yup, testing is causing record death

Don't be a$$.