The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[desicat]

RA is designed to give the Japanese a big lift in starting strength and striking power. I'm not familiar with the specifics but his hammer is a lot bigger in the beginning months. Since John was in on the design you can imagine this plays out many of his "Banzai" dreams.

Of course the Allies are given a few bones, if they make any difference at the start is a mystery to me.

How do you plan on countering things at the beginning? I get the feeling that the IJN improvements are massive but the land based contingent hasn't received the same attention. So as he strikes further and deeper in his initial attacks how can you take advantage?

I would think that open ocean and sea lanes are places for you to avoid as he looks to cash in his RA 5 advantages (I see him heading for NZ and cruising the coast of OZ with one group while raiding in the IO with another), if you get any extra toys would a trap in the Aleutians be possible?

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Headquarters
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
8 July 1940
 
Harper leaned back, rubbed his eyes, and ran a quick mental check of the wargames he had participated in since returning to active duty.

There were the matches against opponents dubbed "Q-Ball," "Chez," and "PzH."  Each had been challenging.  Each had taken wildly improbable turns that few believed could be replicated in a real war.

Q-Ball, Harper recalled, had even invaded India.  That was a silly notion, yet it proved difficult for the "Allies" to stop.  Things had looked pretty bleak, but eventually the Allies turned the tables and appeared likely to win the war.  That particular war game had ended prematurely when Q-Ball had been reassigned to work on a war game focused on a mythical clash between Russia and Germany.

Chez had proved conservative, allowing the Allies to turn Sumatra into a tremendous redoubt.  That was so ridiculous that the officer commanding that match had it terminated.

The contest against PzH had proven as entertaining as it was unlikely.  That was the occasion in which odd places like Coal Harbor and Cocos Island had proven so important.  Under mysterious circumstances, though, PzH had been recalled from active duty, thus ending the match before anything decisive had taken place.  Last report was that he had been billeted to a post in Stockholm.

Now Harper was about to engage in a match to test Cochran's old Reluctant Admiral hypothesis.  Harper was familiar with the scenario, in general, but knew he would have to take time to memorize the order of battle.  And what about the opponent?  Harper knew he was as aggressive as Q-Ball and PzH, but believed there were some weaknesses that might be exploited.  He began jotting down this thoughts:

a.  As always, China will be a target.  And yet, probably not on the level of PzH.  The "Japanese commander" will fight for the usual cities, but probably doesn't have the interest level to go "all out" in China.  He's a sea war guy.  Not a land war guy.  That's good.

b.  He'll go all out in the Pacific.  That's where his heart is.  With his ships.  He likes the Aleutians.  He likes Samoa.  He loves New Caledonia.  He's coming.  Decide whether to meet him or fight elsewhere.

c.  He'll be organized, especially early.  He'll roll through the Philippines, Malaya, and Burma in good order.  But these theaters offer opportunties to sting and stymie.

d.  He is prone, at times, to overcomit to places he wants but doesn't necessarily need.  Identify a few places to "over protect" to frustrate him.  Cocos Island in the Indian Ocean is a prime possibility.

e.  He likes to split his carriers.  This can kill him.  Does he have enough "extra goodies" in Reluctant Admiral to cover this weakness?  Possibly.

f.  Auto Victory:  Not nearly as likely as the games against Q-Ball and PzH.  Too aggressive giving the Allies too many points.  I think. 

Harper had a reputation withing the navy as well.

His exploits in exercises gamed at the Academy had caused uproar, who in his right mind would turn Palembang into a Fortress, invade the Kuriles, and in a previous lifetime threatened to invade the Phillipines only to fall on some volcanic rock named Iwo Jima and turned it into the Gibraltar of the Pacific.

Harper indeed had the warped and twisted mind suitable to take on the evil empire.

[Canoerebel]

Headquarters Building
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
10 August 1941

What the heck? Harper was still rubbing his chin in amazment. One of the observor corps assigned to grade the Reluctant Admiral war game had one heck of a memory. Harper hadn't even remembered the guy, but the guy had certainly remembered him. At the conclusion of Reluctant Admiral, he had taken Harper aside and commented on one of Harper's exercises while at the Naval Academy 12 years ago! He had remembered Harper's plan to counterinvade the Philippines early (Harper recalled the name of the operation, Red Planet) and that Harper had later transformed the mission into an invasion of the Volcano Islands. Crazy that somebody whould have such a memory!

Now that Red Admiral was complete, Harper was working on his assessment. While the exercise seemed far-fetched in the extreme, there were benefits in exploring the "margins and map edges" of militiary capabilities.

In the event of a Red Admiral war scenario, Harper concluded a Portal Defense was optimal:

1. The Indian Ocean is the likely "portal" to victory for the Allies. Therefore, islands like Cocos, Diego and Attu take on increased importance. Garrison them early and heavily. Try to work on the Andamans and Ceylon, but don't risk too much too far forward.

2. Use Allied carrier-based air liberally in the DEI early in the war. Base them in places like Java. Fight hard in the DEI.

3. Send American ground forces to India and Australia early.

4. Maintain surface combat forces in the Pacific to keep the enemy somewhat honest, but don't try to contest the open waters of the Pacific in any meaningful way. The Japanese will come in overwhelming power to fight for places that really aren't that important. Hawaii, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Fiji and similar places aren't strategically signficant.

5. Attend early to Victoria Island to keep the enemy honest in NoPac. The Aluetians are a possible target. But like the big islands in the southern Pacific, the Aleutians aren't as important as establishing the Portal defenses.

6. Divert as many Chinese troops as possible into Burma to serve as a buffer and possibly to contribute to the defense of the Calcutta region.

7. The war will develop fast and furious. It is possible to get overwhelmed early. By early summer of 1942, the situation will begin to stabalize as the Allies should have enough troops to secure India and Australia against conquest.

[bradfordkay]

I would think that Harper is going to be slightly distracted today...

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
The Japanese will come in overwhelming power to fight for places that really aren't that important. Hawaii, New Zealand, New Caledonia, Fiji and similar places aren't strategically signficant.

Individually, none of these goals is *the* strategic end game that a successful conquest of India or Australia would be. However, taken in total, would there not be sufficient points in the combined VP values of Hawaii, NZ, New Caledonia, Fiji and a handful of other goals?

Be interesting to run the math. It may not be such an assumed fool's errand if this could merit an AV.

[Encircled]

Sounds very similar to your last couple of games.

If he guesses that you will do the same thing, then it could get very interesting, very quickly

Should be a good read!

Am I the only one looking for more details in the Cochrane/Ferris wheel tragedy?

[JeffroK]

What the heck? Harper was still rubbing his chin in amazment. One of the observor corps assigned to grade the Reluctant Admiral war game had one heck of a memory. Harper hadn't even remembered the guy, but the guy had certainly remembered him. At the conclusion of Reluctant Admiral, he had taken Harper aside and commented on one of Harper's exercises while at the Naval Academy 12 years ago! He had remembered Harper's plan to counterinvade the Philippines early (Harper recalled the name of the operation, Red Planet) and that Harper had later transformed the mission into an invasion of the Volcano Islands. Crazy that somebody whould have such a memory!

Even more details are remembered by the crowd, the reinvasion of a never occupied Iloilo was on the books until a complacent japanese player decided to occupy it.

The stuff of legends.

[whippleofd]

And let the observer corps not forget the impressive use of surface combatants to disrupt landings of places that have to be taken, yet don't have sufficient covering forces. Of course, "everyone knows" the Japanese commander will escort these invasion forces with substantial covering assets. So why try???

Whipple

[princep01]

"Then Harper flipped through the pile of intelligence assessments on his desk.  There were crytpic requests for information about obscure places like Socatra and Coal Harbor."
 
By golly, Canoe, I think you must have sights on retiring to Socratra after you retire!  Three posts in and there it is.....a Socatra sighting!  Send the entire 2d Marine Division to hold the place.  I'm sure John will bee-line straight for your retirement home:).
 
Seriosuly, welcome back to the AAR fold.  I thought you were going to give this a long rest, but I'm glad you didn't.  I know we all look forward to a rousing game against John.
 
Oh, and while you're here, I was sorry to see Georgia come so close and lose out to Alabama.  Great game to watch for those of us with no dog in the fight, but I am sure you were broken hearted when your valiant team just ran out of time.

[Canoerebel]

PWS:  The Good The Bad & The Sleepy.  [:)]
 
Dawgs v. Bama:  I follow the Dawgs and I'm glad when they win, but I'm not a huge football fan.  Instead of watchng that game, I hiked 14 very tough miles in Cohutta Wilderness yesterday.  I got back home at 7:30, after a 1.5-hour drive.  When I got out of my truck, I thought the good Lord had smote me hip and thigh.  I could barely make it to the house.  I caught the last ten minutes of the game on radio, so I know it was a great game. 
 
Socatra:  From looking at the expanded map, it doesn't seem that Socatra is nearly as important in this game.  But I'll never forget Socatra.  In my game with Q-Ball, that was the base that decided the outcome of the war.  When a base is that critical it's tough to forget it.  [:)]

[Canoerebel]

Headquarters Building
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
25 November 1941

War was coming. There could be no rational doubt now. The question was when and where. The consensus was that Japan would attack the Dutch East Indies and/or the Philippines. A few thought Japan might target Russia. Harper wasn’t sure, but he took satisfaction in the emphasis placed on his “Portal” defense, an outcome of the Reluctant Admiral war game exercise.

The Portal moves were already underway. It would take time to reposition troops, ships and other assets, but there was a chance. The Brits had agreed to send a brigade to Cocos Island, a decision that revealed just how much credence had been assigned to Portal. The move would take four weeks. Harper hoped the Allies had that much time.

“The Allies,” Harper smiled. Even though the United States and Britain weren’t yet technically allied, that was just a formality. The two countries would have to work together carefully in ways that nobody might have envisioned a year ago.

American troops and ships were already shifting around the Pacific and even in the Indian Ocean – a tip of the cap to the advance base force personnel stationed at Darwin and bound for Cocos Island.

Would the Allies implement the most extreme aspect of Portal? In essence, this called for stripping the Pacific of combat ships at the start of war and committing them to the Indian Ocean for the defense of Java and Sumatra. The feeling was that Japan would overcommit to the Pacific, giving the Allies perhaps four weeks to two months in which they might achieve local parity or superiority. Then, once Japan adjusted, the Allies could fall back and contend with developments in the Pacific. The Royal Navy was in. Already, orders were in place to strip India of combat vessels to station them at Batavia and Soerabaja.

Harper knew that the United States had an information source somewhere in Japan. He had picked up enough to know that Naval Intelligence had developed a thorough assessment of the Japanese navy’s order of battle. Harper was anxious to see the list, but hadn’t been brought into that loop yet.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Opposite of Cribtop, I'll say good luck to you now Dan and restrict myself to John's AAR. Somebody has to keep a short leash on him. [:D]

+1

Adieu!

[MAurelius]

+2 - indeed - have fun!

[Canoerebel]

Headquarters Building
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
7 December 1941

Captain John Cole Harper watched columns of thick, ugly, roiling smoke. Reports of damage were coming in quickly. Frantically. There were rumors of Japanese landings here, there, everywhere. Harper knew many of these were exaggerated or imagined. At least he hoped so. Too much was happening too quickly to make an accurate assessment, but he knew for certain that things weren't going well; that the Japanese had targeted Hawaii, the Philippines, and Malaya. How hard wouldn't be known until the smoke began to clear.

Pursuant to Plan Portal, Harper's task was to see that Fire Teams One through Eight were promptly activated. Each of the eight represented important American military moves that were already underway. Each was complex, time consuming, and might not be scheduled for completion for days or weeks. Uunder wartime conditions, however, Fire Team protocol called for each to get underway immediately with whatever might be on hand. Each officer commanding a Fire Team had no more than 24 hours to assemble whatever else he might get his hands on and then to get moving. No exceptions. No excuses.

Harper knew that his RN counterpart at Trincomalee was responsible for Fire Teams Nine through Twenty-One. Since Harper had participated so closely in Plan Portal, many of the RN Fire Team objectives were particularly close to his heart. He didn't have time give them serious thought, but he hoped that Fire Team Two, in particular, would do its job expeditiously and well. This called for immediate embarkation of naval support personnel and gear at Colombo for deployment to Port Blair, Diego Garcia and Cocos Island, in advance of infantry and support troops to follow. If Plan Portal was on target, these positions would be vital to the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

Headquarters Building
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
December 8, 1941
 
Chaos doesn't help in the dissimination of accurate information, so Harper discounted nearly everything he had heard about the surprise Japanese attack on Britain and America.  On the whole, there was no question that Allies had take some grievous losses.  Harper was pretty sure that Arizona had gone under.  Word was that all the battlewagons on the row were in bad shape.  Unbelieably, Harper had seen follow-up raids by Japanese floatplane bombers.  There was word of enemy landings on some of the islands, but these hadn't been verified.
 
Scattered reports were coming in from the Far East.  An air attack on Manila had damaged some subs and warships.  Somewhere in the central Philippines a base had supposedly fallen to a Japanese paratroop attack, with something similar taking place on the Malay Peninsula.  There were no reports of damage to the RN, so Harper hoped those ships were set to rendezous in the Singapore/Batavia/Singakawang triangle to provide protection for the key ports in that region.
 
The biggest question in his mind was whether the Japanese would attack again.  The American military could cobble together about 175 fighter aircraft around Pearl Harbor.  Most of the damaged ships would remain in port.  CA New Orleans was fleeing south along with a couple of light cruisers and destroyers.  Several small combat and patrol boat TFs would sortie to the north in search of the enemy task forces.
 
Lexington and Enteprise were steaming south and would likely move to Australia.  An old-fashioned "wheel play" was in effect, the Allies shifting in strength to the DEI.  Harper hoped it was the right move.

[pws1225]

Hey CR - for someone who doesn't cotton to the narrative style of AAR, you do it mighty nicely.

[Canoerebel]

Eastern Fleet HQ
Trincomalee
8 December 1941 
 
Captain Ormond Pyle had just endured a memorably jarring lorry ride from Colombo back to fleet headquarters at Trincomalee.  He fire team had completed its assigned task.  At 2200 hours on 7 December, ships transporting naval support detachments had cleared the harbor bound for three “breakwater’ destinations:  SS Pellicula for Diego Garcia, SS Clan Forbes and SS Troja for Cocos Island, and SS Michael Livanos for Port Blair.
 
The chaotic activity at fleet headquarters surprised Pyle.  During his absence, orders had arrived creating Eastern Fleet, tasked with the coordinated handling of RN and Commonwealth shipping in the Indian Ocean, the Java and South China Seas, and Australia.  Pyle had also been handed an order assigning him to Naval Intelligence.
 
[font="times new roman"]Britain had been at war with Japan for nearly two days now, so Pyle had picked up a reasonably detailed picture of what had happened to this point:[/font]
 
[font="times new roman"]Hawaii:  The Japanese carrier strike force had apparently retired after the surprise attack on the morning of the 7th.  Arizona had gone under and six other battleships had received moderate to heavy, but not mortal, damage.  The Japanese strike TF was well to the NW in close proximity to what seemed to be a replenishment TF.[/font]
 
Pacific:  The enemy had landed and taken Tarawa.
 
[font="times new roman"]Philippines:  An IJN carrier TF of undetermined strength had participated in a port strike against Manila to open the war and remained active in the vicinity of Naga on the second day.  The Americans had lost several subs and assorted merchant and support vessels near and at Manila.[/font]
 
[font="times new roman"]Malaya:  The Japanese had landed and taken Kuantan.  Paratroops had taken a small base across the peninsula.  [/font]
 
Overall:  To this point, Allied losses had been relatively light considered the surprise nature of the attack.
 
Breakwater Defense:  Pyle knew that the Allies had implemented Plan Portal.  In part this called for establishments of “breakwaters” – bastions that would eventually slow or stop the Japanese advance.  The trick had been in identifying places that were sufficient removed from conceivable front lines to give the Allies time to establish the defenses.  In the IO, Cocos Island, Port Blair and Diego Garcia had been selected.  Pyle believed that Coal Harbor on Victoria Island, Canada, was one of the sites chosen in the Pacific.
 
Ride to the Guns:  In anticipation of a Japanese coup de main against southwestern Borneo or eastern Sumatra, the Royal Navy (along with some American and Dutch combat ships) were on station near Singkawang.  A powerful force flagged by the Prince of Wales had been detached late on the 8th to contest any enemy moves south of Miri.  Two RAF fighter squadrons had been moved to Singkawang from Singapore to provide CAP in case the Japanese got the field at Kuantan up and running.
 
[font="times new roman"]Palembang:  One Fire Team had the mission of shifting troops from a variety of locations to Palembang.  This base would be a top-priority target for Japan, headquarters believed, so it was unlikely the Allies could establish a breakwater defense here, but they’d give it a try.  The first big unit – the SSV Indian brigade – had already embarked on ships at Singapore and were enroute.[/font]

[GreyJoy]

Hey Dan, just to let you know that i'm reading and enjoying this new format of yours!
 
Really lokking forward to see how Plan Portal works against an opponent so aggressive like John!
 
keep it up!

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents.  I'm having fun with the writing, but sooner or later I'll transition back to the regular format.  Laziness or busy-ness will interfere.
 
To bring you up to date in an "overview way" as to what's going on, John III has been aggressive but not particularly successful in his opening moves.  The strike on Pearl Harbor was strong, but he need another to finish off some of the damaged BBs.  Instead, he gets just one.  He's been more effective in and around Manila, but he's just getting flotsam and jetsam (spelling?) - nothing of substance.
 
On the flip side, the Allies have yet to sink a single enemy vessel.  The only one damaged, that I know of, is an xAK that took a torp near Kota Bharu.
 
The only licks by the Allies thus far have been a couple of nice air ambushes.  P-40s from Manila moved to Cabantuan and roughed up some Mini KB Kates and Zeroes.  Over near Singkawang, a bunch of bomb-toting Betties sorited against Force Z, but got eaten up by RAF LRCAP.
 
I am being very lazy.  I haven't yet opened up the game file to see what Japan has extra in the way of carriers.  That could bite me and soon.
 
The Allies are moving to aggressively establish those "breakwaters" mentioned above.  This is important for my peace of mind.  The Allies will aggressively use ships in the DEI and South China Sea until I decide not to.  I already have alot there and alot more on the way.

[Canoerebel]

The positions of Force Z and a Mini KB on the third day of the war. This IJN carrier TF had been position east of Naga the first two days. Force Z just moved to this position, drawing a bomb-laden Betty attack from Kuantan. RAF LRCAP from Singkawang handled the unescorted bombers.

If John had plans to move fast and far in the southern South China Sea, he'll have to bring enough to handle what he will perceive as stiff Allied resistance. His carriers have already flown three missions, so he can't deploy them much longer without rearming.

At Palembang, the Allies have 71 AV with two units arriving from Singapore tomorrow. That will bring the total AV to roughly 170. Enough to prevent a sudden conquest ala coup de main.

The Allies want to effecitvely fight here - both for the sake of fighting well and to give them time to garrison as many places as possible. I need time to accumulate political points (I was down to 15 yesterday).