Making Lemonade: JocMeister (A) vs. SqzMyLemon (J) BabesLite-B

[JocMeister]

I sent Joseph an email last night asking to terminate the game. Clearly he has some big issues with playing Japan, DBB and the BETA. I see no point in playing on if your opponent have no joy in the game whatsoever.

After the Milne Bay landing Joseph expressed a lot of frustration. I´m not really sure what he expected from 40 Fighters and 60 bombers flying in heavy rain and thunderstorms from two level 5 AFs against 6 allied CVs though. He also expressed a lot of frustration regarding his Patrol planes inability to detect my fleet from 20-25 hexes out in Thunderstorms. This while my search detected his Fleet. (I have not mentioned they are flying from a dot base 8 hexes from his CVs)

This is not the first time Joseph have been very unhappy with the game and we have had long discussion regarding many things. I feel he has impossible expectations on the performance of his forces and what he expects to happen simply will never do. Not unlike myself at one time his expectations are based on what he thinks should happen rather then on how the game works. He clearly feel DBB and the BETA is a tremendous disadvantage to an already crippled Japan. I can´t really do anything about that but I feel it makes it pointless to play on.

Knowing whats in store for Japan in 44-45 and Josephs reaction to quite insignificant things this early I highly doubt this game will see the end of 43. That have completely killed my motivation and I find no joy in the game. Admittedly that may be a "me problem". But regardless its very obvious by Josephs emails he is not having fun and only feels frustrated. That alone is enough for me to ask for cancellation.

I sent the email last morning and have yet to receive a reply. I know Joseph is busy this week on a first aid course but hope to receive a reply later this week.

[Itdepends]

Probably a good move- I follow 2 AAR's on - Mr Mandrake and co and SqyzmyLemons. One because it's funny (although there has a been a disturbingly high level of planning lately) and the other because of the fascination that causes motorists to slow down when passing an auto accident. Joseph would be happier if he looked for more lemonade and less lemons.

[JocMeister]

So, this game is rolling again. Joseph is absolutely adamant he won´t quit. We have had a good communication going regarding what the BETA means. I have shown him a lot of air losses screens and CRs from my game vs. Erik to make absolutely sure he knows what he is in for. I´m not entirely sure he really understands as I still get the feeling his thinks Milne Bay was just bad luck. It wasn´t. He simply didn´t have the logistics or numbers there to be much of a threat. But I´ll have to trust him when he says there is no way he is going to bail. Despite my doubts I´ll just have to try and play this game as best as I could.

Next up is a invasion of Ndeni followed by a smash and grab in the Gilberts. Going to continue to play this VERY safe. I need my CVs and Amphibs intact. After that we are moving to the IO to grab the Adamans. That will make Josephs position in Burma very dangerous if I manage to hold on to the mountains in China.

Joseph have made a very hard bed to lie in right now. He is relying completely on the KB to stop any advancement into the Solomons or Gilberts. There are no troops in place. No forts, no nothing. So as long as I can avoid the KB he is giving all this away for free. The only thing holding me back is base expansion but with the flood of engineers now starting to arrive in SOPAC that won´t be a problem for too long. This also means Joseph will HAVE to keep the KB in SOPAC. I´ve just started prepping troops for Wake.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Joseph have made a very hard bed to lie in right now. He is relying completely on the KB to stop any advancement into the Solomons or Gilberts. There are no troops in place. No forts, no nothing. So as long as I can avoid the KB he is giving all this away for free. The only thing holding me back is base expansion but with the flood of engineers now starting to arrive in SOPAC that won´t be a problem for too long. This also means Joseph will HAVE to keep the KB in SOPAC. I´ve just started prepping troops for Wake.

I don't think this is such a bad choice. Japan probably would have been better off not fighting and trying to support troops in those areas as well.

So when you say he made a hard bed, I'd say the opposite. He created a nice soft cushion for your invasions to land on. You would still take half a year to take enough of those, build them up and get ready for another advance beyond into the Marianas. He doesn't have to keep the KB anywhere. The fact that you think it has to be in SOPAC means he's already achieving one goal, which is to make you think you can predict his movements. [;)]

[JocMeister]

Lets disagree on that. [:D]

Its not going to take half a year to get though all the Solomons and I can use only a very small amount of troops. The only way he could possible stop me (since he doesn´t have any airfields to stage LBA from) is using the KB. If he has the KB in range of the Solomons its a allied strategic victory. If he doesn´t he is giving the Solomons away for free which is still an allied victory. Its a win win for me. [:)]

The important thing here is the fact that I can use a couple of RGTs to secure the entire Solomons and New England. That means I can use the spare troops for an additional attack vector I would otherwise not have had the troops for. That is not good Japanese news.

But we will see in 6 months or so if I was right.

[ny59giants]

It seems to me that DBB has more construction units/devices. In 2/44, I finally landed at Hansa Bay (like Jocke's other game, I'm behind schedule). Two days post capture of the base I followed up with over 800 engineers (engineers plus engineer vehicles) and the base was totally repaired and expanding. I just peaked out with almost 1400 engineers total. [X(] [8D] The Allies in DBB can build up bases faster than any JFB can imagine. Without any altitude restrictions (HR) the P-38 series is above average and the P-47s is just plain deadly (using newest air data by Symon).

So with the experience Jocke has gained from other game, he should be able to move forward rather quickly, IMO.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

It seems to me that DBB has more construction units/devices. In 2/44, I finally landed at Hansa Bay (like Jocke's other game, I'm behind schedule). Two days post capture of the base I followed up with over 800 engineers (engineers plus engineer vehicles) and the base was totally repaired and expanding. I just peaked out with almost 1400 engineers total. [X(] [8D] The Allies in DBB can build up bases faster than any JFB can imagine. Without any altitude restrictions (HR) the P-38 series is above average and the P-47s is just plain deadly (using newest air data by Symon).

So with the experience Jocke has gained from other game, he should be able to move forward rather quickly, IMO.

Believe me I know how fast he can go! I've seen it on the other side. no doubts about that.

My interest in commenting on the Allied side is to posit a more rounded view of the situation. If Japan does not defend heavily in the Marshalls/Gilberts (which is the part I was referring to, not the Solomons) ten they have more resources to defend more vital secondary locations. Now that I've experienced the Allied ability to move quickly, hop heavily defended locations, and build them up fast to support the next jump, I think it's detrimental for Japan to defend forward. The best defenses have not been those where the front has been heavily built, but those where the Allies were met with counter thrusts, surprises, and reinforcements or reinvasions.

So nothing really can be learned by the fact that extended perimeters are not heavily defended except that Japan did not have to use the men and materials to make them so.

[JocMeister]

Good points. But leaving land completely empty... not even a smallish unit with 2-3 forts to delay is a big mistake IMO. This enables me to advance with small units, small low value ships mostly without cover from LBA or combat ships. So even if he did manage to smash something up it doesn´t matter. And what should he counter attack? So what if he wrecks a RGT. It would just be a waste of time.

I may be wrong but giving up land completely free as Joseph has done in Western/Northern OZ, Solomons, Hebrides and the Gilberts is a mistake. He shouldn´t defend those heavily but he should defend them. He has not even bothered to clear warp all dotbases those places giving me perfect staging bases for CATs.

As I said I may be completely wrong but I´m very happy with getting all this stuff for free (assuming I don´t lose anything important). And if I´m happy that can´t be good from a Japanese POV?

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Good points. But leaving land completely empty... not even a smallish unit with 2-3 forts to delay is a big mistake IMO. This enables me to advance with small units, small low value ships mostly without cover from LBA or combat ships. So even if he did manage to smash something up it doesn´t matter. And what should he counter attack? So what if he wrecks a RGT. It would just be a waste of time.

I may be wrong but giving up land completely free as Joseph has done in Western/Northern OZ, Solomons, Hebrides and the Gilberts is a mistake. He shouldn´t defend those heavily but he should defend them. He has not even bothered to clear warp all dotbases those places giving me perfect staging bases for CATs.

As I said I may be completely wrong but I´m very happy with getting all this stuff for free (assuming I don´t lose anything important). And if I´m happy that can´t be good from a Japanese POV?

There is no mistake until you are able to prove it is one! Your happiness can be used in many ways by the Japanese player.

Remember when Canoerebel landed on Sumatra? It was a huge 'mistake' by John III to not have those areas properly defended. Yet, after a few months fighting there, it began to look more like the mistake was to take them so early. I have no idea what Joseph's defense plan is in detail, but it could be many different things at this point.

Anything is a mistake if you make it one!

Just saying, the proof is in the pudding. [:)]

[JocMeister]

[font="Verdana"]Last turn of 1942[/font]
______________________________________________________________________________

Not much has happened over the last 2 weeks.

------------------------
CENTPAC
------------------------
Ouff, The planned invasion of the Gilberts is postponed. Firstly I´m 99% certain the KB is sitting at Kusaie Island and most importantly I gravely underestimated the fuel usage. I have juuuuust enough to pull it off but it leaves no room for combat or any kind of maneuvering. So I postponed the entire operation for now and left the Fleet at OZ. I´ll do some minor stuff down there instead. Should be able to go in February instead.

------------------------
SOPAC
------------------------
Ndeni is secured on the 26th of December. No opposition. Milne Bay is left on its own. Since the fleet is here I will try and grab PM and Terapo to secure the flank. Goal is to capture Darwin within 6 months.

------------------------
NOPAC
------------------------
As forts become ready I´ve started pulling out some of the EABs and sending them to PH.

------------------------
DEI
------------------------
I´m going to try a crazy grab on Cocos soon. I might fail as I go in completely blind with mostly armored units. I´ll see if I can force Joseph to react and shift the KB here.

------------------------
China
------------------------
Line in the mountains are holding for now. Supply is exactly NIL. I´m trying to fly in supply to places where I think Joseph is going to attack. Its fairly easy to predict since he shifts the entire air force to that location a couple of days ahead. But OPS losses to the transports are insane. I lost more C47s to OPS losses then I have P40s in A2A. I wonder if something is messed up with the allied transports. Same thing in my other game.

I´ll update again when something happens. [:D]

[JocMeister]

So I was hoping to get a some turns done while Erik was away and perhaps do a more substantial update for the AAR. Instead we spend the week not doing any turns while Joseph wants this result checked out.

Ground combat at 70,48 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 64044 troops, 628 guns, 195 vehicles, Assault Value = 2237

Defending force 20826 troops, 85 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 737

Japanese adjusted assault: 655

Allied adjusted defense: 565

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
4223 casualties reported
Squads: 239 destroyed, 232 disabled
Non Combat: 29 destroyed, 24 disabled
Engineers: 24 destroyed, 23 disabled
Guns lost 84 (46 destroyed, 38 disabled)
Vehicles lost 7 (4 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
384 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 105 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 19 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (2 destroyed, 4 disabled)

Joseph overstacked the hex with almost x4 the numbers. My units were within SL, had around 50% supply and all but one had level 2 forts. The hex is x3 terrain (mountain). He has done 2 days of small aerial bombardments. No ground bombardments at all. I don´t see anything odd with this. A week ago he trashed 2 Corps guarding another mountain hex. Strangely enough there were no talk about "looking into results" then.

Ground combat at 69,49 (near Kunming)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 17237 troops, 134 guns, 134 vehicles, Assault Value = 645

Defending force 11384 troops, 69 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 422

Japanese adjusted assault: 500

Allied adjusted defense: 142

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
432 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 55 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Vehicles lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1703 casualties reported
Squads: 87 destroyed, 61 disabled
Non Combat: 119 destroyed, 60 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units retreated 2

I find these constant delays and "issues" an absolute drain on moral and motivation. Apparently I

won China simply by occupying 3x terrain and the combat routine now treats each and every hex as an atoll. Hardly realistic, but I want clarification.

Now he wants to start bomb the Chinese industry that is left too. I guess the allies in China really are too easy after all...

To top it off Joseph didn´t tell me he wanted the turn looked into until 2 turns later so I now spent about 4-6 hours sorting out pilots, leaders, convoys and prepp while I had time off from my other game. Its been a long time since my heart was in this game. I should have gone with my instinct and dropped this one a long time ago. But now I´m in that awkward situation where I invested so much time I´m hanging on to it just because I don´t want to have invested in it in vain. But what do you do when everything is screaming at you to get out before you waste more time...

[JocMeister]

Reading my own post kind of made me reach the decision. I don´t have any motivation or fun with this game and there is really no point in playing on.

I´ve just sent Joseph an email telling him I´m out. If Joseph accepts a replacement player is anyone willing to pick this up? A word of warning though: I think the game is extremely unlikely to reach the end of the war or even the end of 43. It´s no secrete that this game isn´t friction free. If you still feel interested despite all this PM me and I´ll provide the details.

[morejeffs]

Those allied bastards...Hiding in good defensive terrain. You should stay out in the open so you can be slaughtered like an appreciative opponent![X(]

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Reading my own post kind of made me reach the decision. I don´t have any motivation or fun with this game and there is really no point in playing on.

I´ve just sent Joseph an email telling him I´m out. If Joseph accepts a replacement player is anyone willing to pick this up? A word of warning though: I think the game is extremely unlikely to reach the end of the war or even the end of 43. It´s no secrete that this game isn´t friction free. If you still feel interested despite all this PM me and I´ll provide the details.

This one has always seemed to limp a bit. Your Obvert game was your first love. Squeeze also just started a game with Chickenboy, so I expect he''ll be busy.

And you'll have diaper hands x2, so this game was on borrowed time regardless. [:)]

[JocMeister]

Yeah, in my heart this game has been over for a while. I guess the lesson to take away from this one is that if your gut tells you very early on its not going to work its not going to work. I wish Joseph the best of luck in his other game. He has declined a replacement player so this game is now officially over.

VP score stopped at 25600:8900. So a very comfortable score from an allied perspective going into 43 with a completely intact Air force, Navy and Army.

My next game will absolutely be a full blown DBB game. Still not sure there will be "another game" though. I had always intended for this one to be my replacement game once Eriks and my game was done. But now I´m not sure I´ll pick up another one after that. Never say never though!

Ah well. Signing out for good I guess! See you in my other AAR! [:)]

[Wuffer]

Did I miss something in the quoted CR? 6% (six-of-hundred) japanese casualities by attacking in bad terrain... Well, at least it was a decisive defense.

[PaxMondo]

Sorry to see the game end ...

[Symon]

I was asked to look into this by several people, so I did. And it’s WAD. Joseph sent me the savegame, and I captured the area/units of interest and ran it under 3 different executables; 1123r, 1117, and mine. Ran it with and without stacking limits. Ran it with launch from desktop, so all random seeds are different.

Can’t help one without helping the other, so I’ll post this on both ya’lls AARs.

The executable (Beta) has nothing to do with the result. It is statistically the same no matter what Beta you use.

Stacking limits have a significant result vector, but not anywhere close to the “blame game”.

Avg results under all Betas, with SLs:
Ground combat at 70,48 (near Kunming)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 64857 troops, 627 guns, 194 vehicles, Assault Value = 2234
Defending force 20956 troops, 88 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 726
Japanese adjusted assault: 746
Allied adjusted defense: 659
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)
Japanese ground losses:
6022 casualties reported
Allied ground losses:
869 casualties reported

Avg results under all Betas, without SLs:
Ground combat at 70,48 (near Kunming)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 64857 troops, 627 guns, 194 vehicles, Assault Value = 2234
Defending force 20956 troops, 88 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 726
Japanese adjusted assault: 804
Allied adjusted defense: 460
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: disruption(-)
Japanese ground losses:
3345 casualties reported
Allied ground losses:
1172 casualties reported

So the attacker would have got whacked, no matter what the limits. As to disruption, the avg SL hit was in the 60-80s. The avg non-SL hit was in the 40-60s. That says, to me, that SLs are working exactly as intended. The attacker wanted to play “big stack” and got penalized for it. He would have lost in any case, in stock, but he lost bigger with SLs because he didn’t use the little grey cells.

Please don’t blame SLs for bad results due to lack of proper planning. Thank you.

[JocMeister]

Hey Symon,

Thanks for sharing the info. Just want to make it very clear that I never had any issues with the result. My opponent did.

[Symon]

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
Hey Symon,

Thanks for sharing the info. Just want to make it very clear that I never had any issues with the result. My opponent did.

I know. This is just how I choose to express my responsibility. One side asks, and if it's worth answering, then both sides get the answer. I don't take sides.

Hey, Dude, you get this for free !! [8D] Ciao. JWE