Dutch AVP Arend: Scenario 1 Exploits

[WEXF]

That sub is not on a major shipping lane so chances are it is headed south to Perth or thereabouts. It could also be sent to sniff out your defences. Just checking the DL on the sub every turn will tell him something about your Naval Search efforts. Air attacks on the sub could indicate ASW Patrols as well.

And he will be wondering about a DD TF in that area. He might think you have reinforcement convoys going to Carnarvon or Exmouth.

Certainly true. I expect that sub will be seen again and again on the west coast. At the afternoon intel meeting it will be mentioned that the DL on Exmouth is also 1/0. There are many possibilities on how that could have been caused but it wouldn't surprise me if there are a number of subs in the area.
As always, thanks for your comments.
Quick question- are the DL/MDL numbers, like the 1/0 on Geraldton, subject to FOW?

[BBfanboy]

D/L of 1/0 likely means a radio transmission intercept (not deciphered, just that a transmission was made). Whenever you give orders to a unit at your base or at sea, there is a chance of a radio transmission intercept. The better Allied radios get this a lot more than the Japanese ones. Plus, the PBYs have an early form of ELINT equipment on board so during their patrols they stand a better chance of getting an intercept that is over-the-horizon from land bases.

[WEXF]

D/L of 1/0 likely means a radio transmission intercept (not deciphered, just that a transmission was made). Whenever you give orders to a unit at your base or at sea, there is a chance of a radio transmission intercept. The better Allied radios get this a lot more than the Japanese ones. Plus, the PBYs have an early form of ELINT equipment on board so during their patrols they stand a better chance of getting an intercept that is over-the-horizon from land bases.

I am not sure I am understanding your comment as it relates to what I asked.
Geraldton is showing a DL of 1/0. I take that to mean that the Japanese have a detection level of 1/0 on Geraldton. Is that the accurate DL that the enemy has on Geraldton or is it possible that the actual DL is higher or lower? I am not asking where the information came from only whether the number shown is "real" or subject to FOW.
I know your comment will be helpful to all who read it, but please, if you can, help me get the information I am looking for.

[WEXF]

The afternoon intel meeting focused on recon missions that had been run in the Timor region to determine, more accurately, what assets the enemy had. Everyone was a bit surprised to hear that a squadron of Lightning F-4 Recon planes had been sent from California and was operating along the northern coast of Australia. These planes were not yet in full production but a few had been produced and were needed everywhere. They had excellent speed and had the ability to operate with drop tanks up to an extended range of 730 miles. They were not easy to maintain so some care needed to be exercised in their use. Even when production started in September there would not be many of these planes.

F4Lighta.jpg (113.83 KiB) Viewed 689 times

It was explained that a series of recon missions had been run on enemy bases at Koepang, Roti, Dili and Lautem.

kopair27jua.jpg (85.78 KiB) Viewed 688 times

At Koepang the DL was now 9/11 and showed that the number of aircraft was 82 fighters, 63 bombers and 63 Auxiliary for a total of 208, a number higher than had been seen before. The mix of aircraft types also varied from previous data but generally confirmed previous estimates. Command felt that they had probably under estimated the strength of the second unit at the base with regard to the number of aviation support it needed to provide. Other information on Koepang was roughly the same as before with 7 units (2880 troops, 209 guns, 113 AFV). 4 ships in port (AMc, AO, +2) and a TF of 3 ships (PB, PB +1).
Roti was found to be empty. The DL on Roti was 9/11.
Lautem had a low DL of 1/2 and showed a single unit at the base with no details.
The recon mission and a bombing mission ordered on Dili provided significant intel. The bombing mission had been ordered to see if some fighters would be drawn from Koepang and identified in combat reports. The recon on Dili resulted in a DL of 5/6 and showed 8 fighters at the airbase, a landing barge in port and 2 ground units (2200T, 16 guns). The bombing raid was costly as we lost several aircraft to an unexpected local CAP from the 8 fighters at the base.

diliatka.jpg (73.33 KiB) Viewed 681 times

On the plus side of the raid one of the units at the base was identified as the 3rd JNAF AF Unit and the fighters were identified as from Kanoya KuS-1, flying A6M2 Zeros. The intel officer explained that Dili had been lost to the enemy on 26Mar and that the 84th Naval Guard had made the assault, losing 1 squad, some support troops and a 37mm ATG. It seemed pretty clear that the troops on Dili were now identified.

[BBfanboy]

D/L of 1/0 likely means a radio transmission intercept (not deciphered, just that a transmission was made). Whenever you give orders to a unit at your base or at sea, there is a chance of a radio transmission intercept. The better Allied radios get this a lot more than the Japanese ones. Plus, the PBYs have an early form of ELINT equipment on board so during their patrols they stand a better chance of getting an intercept that is over-the-horizon from land bases.

I am not sure I am understanding your comment as it relates to what I asked.
Geraldton is showing a DL of 1/0. I take that to mean that the Japanese have a detection level of 1/0 on Geraldton. Is that the accurate DL that the enemy has on Geraldton or is it possible that the actual DL is higher or lower? I am not asking where the information came from only whether the number shown is "real" or subject to FOW.
I know your comment will be helpful to all who read it, but please, if you can, help me get the information I am looking for.

Yes, FOW could be part of the info on D/L. Since no planes were spotted and no sub periscopes in the Geraldton hex, it is unlikely that the enemy has a higher D/L. Level 1 is very low and would give them very little detail - just the location of a transmission.

[BBfanboy]

A thought on those Aux planes at Koepang- they could be Mavis flying boats - PBY equivalents and they can carry 2 torpedoes like the PBY. An Air HQ in range and enough supply would give Koepang the ability to provide torps. I would use only xAKLs along the N. Australia coast.

[WEXF]

A thought on those Aux planes at Koepang- they could be Mavis flying boats - PBY equivalents and they can carry 2 torpedoes like the PBY. An Air HQ in range and enough supply would give Koepang the ability to provide torps. I would use only xAKLs along the N. Australia coast.

Thanks for your comments. They really help.
I agree that Mavis patrol planes are a real possibility. Given the number of planes at Koepang I am convinced there is at least 1 HQa at the base. It looks like more than 200 aviation support would be needed at Koepang for everything to work right.

[WEXF]

[/quote]
Yes, FOW could be part of the info on D/L. Since no planes were spotted and no sub periscopes in the Geraldton hex, it is unlikely that the enemy has a higher D/L. Level 1 is very low and would give them very little detail - just the location of a transmission.
[/quote]
I looked deeper at the information in my signal intel to see if my detection of radio transmissions resulted in my having low level DL on locations where I could not have had any other recon. Your comment is absolutely right. Whenever I had sig intel of "radio transmissions" I had a DL on the target of at least 1/0. In a few cases I had a slightly higher number. Learning something new is a constant in our game.
Thanks

[CFab]

Just finished reading your AAR to the current point. Really enjoying your adventures with the Arend. Really immersive to read about a single ship's exploits in the grand scheme of things. Really hope you can continue this AAR for a really long time. Will be following along!

[WEXF]

Just finished reading your AAR to the current point. Really enjoying your adventures with the Arend. Really immersive to read about a single ship's exploits in the grand scheme of things. Really hope you can continue this AAR for a really long time. Will be following along!

CFab:
Thanks for following the exploits of Arend. It takes a lot of time to do an AAR so hearing from others that it is worth it is important. I am learning many things from doing this AAR and I hope others are also refining their understanding of the complexity of our game.

[WEXF]

As the sun rose on 28Jul the forts at Geraldton were 58%>L3. On Arend WO Hazard 's experience level had gone from 60>61. The Walrus II had flown an ASW mission looking for the sub that might have been in the area yesterday but none were located and Command had come to the conclusion that while enemy sub activity had been detected near Carnarvon, it was sensible for the pilots on Arend to return to their low naval attack training. At the airbase it was clear that things had changed. There were now 59 twin engine level bombers where there had only been 41 the day before.

ger28jula.jpg (191.06 KiB) Viewed 610 times

pilot28jula.jpg (109.11 KiB) Viewed 609 times

The crew on Arend was briefed on some important orders that had been issued that would impact many of the Dutch ships that had safely been evacuated from the DEI some months ago, especially the 11 AVP, 18 AMc and 12 PTs. Command was anticipating the invasion of northern Australia and had done a decent job in determining the distribution of the enemy forces in the Timor area. The decision was made to mobilize the small ships on the west coast and deploy them as pickets to draw enemy attention. It was going to be a rough assignment and there would likely be significant casualties among the Dutch sailors, but they always knew this time would come.
It turned out that Arend was not going to be sent north. She had been ordered to remain at Geraldton and continue to provide the support needed by the Dutch patrol planes at the base. Those planes were critical to the naval search capability at Geraldton.
LCDR Goerk was really worried about a report that he had heard about one particular Dutch ship, AVP Bellatrix. She was a smaller version AVP than Arend and had been at Wyndham supporting some patrol planes. It was decided that Bellatrix should be moved and was currently heading to Exmouth but was moving through heavily patrolled enemy territory. So far she had made it to Broome, staying in shallow water and hugging the coastline, but she had been spotted.

avpBella.jpg (105.81 KiB) Viewed 608 times

AVP Bellatrix was not defenseless. She had a small deck gun that could possibly engage an enemy submarine attempting a surface attack and there was a small chance that her 75mm AA gun could shoot down an enemy torpedo bomber, but the odds were not with her. Command was going to try to provide some fighter cover for the rest of the trip to Exmouth but LCDR Goerk couldn't help but think back to his own ordeal leaving the DEI months ago.
Everyone at Geraldton waited for the afternoon briefing on the situation in the north.

[WEXF]

The afternoon 28Jul intel meeting provided a detailed overview of the enemy positions threatening the northern Australia coast.
Although there were numerous enemy bases in the Timor region, only 4 were known, after extensive recon, to have garrisons and just two, Koepang and Dili, were known to have active air fields.

TimorRega.jpg (298.43 KiB) Viewed 588 times

Dili had a L1 airfield and therefore was limited in the type of aircraft that could operate there and the missions they could perform. Although the squadron of Zeros known to be on Dili had a max size of 48, there were only 24 aviation support on Dili. Command felt that these aircraft would be limited to CAP and escort missions.
Koepang was where the the real threat was. It was clear that Koepang had somewhere near 200 aircraft and the support troops needed to handle any kind of mission. There were numerous fighters and bombers at the L5 airfield but it was the unusual number of auxiliary aircraft that was most concerning. While patrol, float and recon planes could account for some of these, Command felt confident that the bulk were actually transports that were positioned for a airborne invasion of Australia.

[BBfanboy]

Glad to see another fan making a post!
In case you or some of your AAR readers are not aware, the LowN attack is not used in ASW situations. Our former game Guru, Alfred, knew the game coding and design and he told us that air ASW included an bombing attack algorithm of its own. That means that if subs are the primary threat that Arend expects to face, the pilots should train at least as much in ASW as in LowN or NavB.

The other thing new players should be aware of is that the range of ASW missions is cut in half to account for a more intensive search. So a mission set to 4 hex distance will fly ASW only 2 hexes out. It is still worth it to fly that because subs like to hang out one hex away from the port to catch ships going to and from, or to come in to mine the harbour. And if some are wondering about dropping depth charges from aircraft, that is not part of the game design so they only drop bombs. My impression is that the overall frequency of air ASW attacks on subs is about right and the chances of damaging or destroying them is also appropriate so I don't worry about the depth charge omission (done to simplify the game code, I think).

About the CO of AVP Bellatrix: if his Naval skill is as low as his Leadership/Inspiration score, he will not be good at maneuvering to dodge bombs or torps. Next time in port, I would check to see if a more skilled captain is available at reasonable or nil PP cost. As you have guessed, the crew's very low experience makes it unlikely the deck gun will bring down any bombers but any shooting will have some effect on bomber aim. That effect is useful in the survival of the ship so upgrades to small ship AA should always be considered.

[WEXF]

After a short break, the afternoon intel meeting continued with an assessment of where the airborne attack might come. There were 4 bases on the north Australian coast within range of transports based at Koepang: Darwin, Wyndham, Derby and Broome. Wyndham was not considered a likely target as it was swamp terrain and would have a 3X defense against the shock attack of a para drop.
Although Darwin was the biggest target, an attack there was also not considered likely. The enemy had high detection 9/10, on Darwin and knew there were significant defenses at Darwin that would likely be able to withstand an airborne attack. It also was 12 hexes away from Koepang and therefore would exclude the use of Topsy transports.
Derby and Broome were the most likely targets. Both were 11 hexes away from Koepang. desert terrain (1X defense) and not expected to have heavy defenses. (both have or almost have level 3 forts).
Port Hedland was an outside but unlikely possibility as it was possible to do a para drop there from Koepang using unescorted Mavis transports.

[WEXF]

29Jul was not going to be anything like normal. Geraldton was now 66% of the way to being at Fort L3 and both pilots on Arend saw their Def skill rating go up by 1.

Ger29jula.jpg (192.83 KiB) Viewed 564 times

pilot29jula.jpg (100.44 KiB) Viewed 563 times

Everyone was on edge because of the report that the enemy submarine that had been spotted recently near Carnarvon had been detected and attacked just to the west of Geraldton by the minesweepers Lark and Quail. There was no indication that the sub had been damaged by the attack. It seemed likely that I-156 could well be heading for the shipping lanes around Perth. Command was feverishly preparing a maximum ASW effort.

I156geralda.jpg (242.29 KiB) Viewed 562 times

LCDR Goerk heard that AVP Bellatrix had safely made it to Broome by hugging the coast in shallow water and running at full speed. Now that she was in port, Command, following the recommendation made in this AAR by a top observer, was reviewing the leader ratings of LCDR Schuyler, B. to decide if he should be replaced with another commander that had a better chance of getting the AVP safely to Exmouth.

TFBellrata.jpg (83.93 KiB) Viewed 558 times

What LCDR Goerk didn't yet know was that the decision being made by Command would be much more extensive.

[BBfanboy]

That sub sighting looks to be about 5 hexes from Geraldton. If you want to risk your Walrus on a max range mission, it could be sent on naval search that far. I use a level below 5K feet for NavS when searching for subs. A search vector would be appropriate too.

[WEXF]

That sub sighting looks to be about 5 hexes from Geraldton. If you want to risk your Walrus on a max range mission, it could be sent on naval search that far. I use a level below 5K feet for NavS when searching for subs. A search vector would be appropriate too.

The sighting of I-156 was in hex 47-140, just 3 hexes from Geraldton. There is no doubt that the Walrus from Arend and just about everything that can fly from Geraldton and Perth will be searching for I-156.

[WEXF]

Command reviewed the ratings of LCDR Schuyler, B. and decided to have LCDR Besancon, HC assume command of AVP Bellatrix as his "Naval" skill rating of 56 was better that Schuyler's and was one of the highest of all other available Dutch officers.

ShuyBella.jpg (103.61 KiB) Viewed 525 times

Command also decided to appoint LCDR commander of TF413 (the only ship in TF413 is AVP Bellatrix) as his "Naval" skill was 79, significantly better then Besancon and was the highest of any Dutch officers in the pool available to command TF413. There was some concern that this change would be risking two important Dutch officers but it was felt that everything possible should be done to try and save AVP Bellatrix.

TF413nca.jpg (104.64 KiB) Viewed 523 times

[WEXF]

At Geraldton, LCDR Goerk, U. told by Command that a decision had been made to have LCDR Bax, JS take over command of AVP Arend. Bax's "Naval" and "Air" rating were excellent and among the best of available Dutch officers.

goerkreplaca.jpg (140.61 KiB) Viewed 521 times

Goerk was well aware of Bax's skills and knew that he was a much more experienced officer and would be excellent as commander of Arend.

goerk2a.jpg (70.16 KiB) Viewed 520 times

However, Goerk was disappointed that after spending so much time on Arend he was now being replaced. His mood quickly changed when he was told that he was going to Perth to take command of AR Castor, a small but very important repair ship, currently commanded by CDR Boetcher, J.

goerkARa.jpg (140.02 KiB) Viewed 519 times

arcptolda.jpg (61.9 KiB) Viewed 518 times

Goerk understood the value of AR Castor. That small 670 ton repair ship was one of the most valuable Dutch ships in the war. Her ability to repair all kinds of ships and her special capability to repair limited "major" damage on ships of all sizes made her invaluable on the west coast of Australia where the only shipyard was limited to 3000 ton ships. There were only 3 AR currently in the Allied navies and only AR Castor was in Australia. More ARs were in the pipeline but none would be built in Australia. Goerk was told that he had been selected to command Castor because of his extensive experience overseeing the repair process of Arend in the Perth shipyard and his detailed awareness of the process of ship repairs that he witnessed on many different classes of ships while in Perth. He was being recommended for promotion to CDR.
COMMAND COMMENT (ME): I expect that some who read this will quickly see that Goerk's ratings as an officer are not very good. In fact, they are about as bad as any Dutch officer. In "game" terms he should not be appointed commander of any ship, and definitely not be given command of AR Castor. That being said, I have said before and I will repeat here, that one small shortcoming of our game is that there is no way for ship commanders to improve their ratings. If the service of Goerk was IRL as it was in this AAR, it would not surprise me that his ratings would have improved significantly given his success in safely getting his badly damaged ship to a distant port under constant threat of enemy action and his extensive exposure to the ship repair process described in detail in this AAR. I also realize that there is no way to "recommend" a promotion for Goerk in our game. I just thought it was a good idea.

[BBfanboy]

WEXF: At Geraldton, LCDR Goerk, U. told by Command that a decision had been made to have LCDR Bax, JS take over command of AVP Arend. Bax's "Naval" and "Air" rating were excellent and among the best of available Dutch officers.

Now there's a question I had not considered before - does the leadership chain for a ship-based FP go to the ship's Captain or to the higher level Air Unit/Air HQ it belongs to? I think the latter - personnel issues and other administration are normally handled on the Air side of things while to Ship's Captain would have operational command, deciding what missions to assign the FP in support of Arend. But I can't say which would be modeled in game terms. It would make little difference except for upgrades to the FP or rotation of pilots.