Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice)

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Ross, so good to see you pop up in here. You've been missed, as a number of Forumites have pointed out in recent months. I hope you'll resume your more frequent presence, when time permits!

Thanks for the YouTube link. What a fascinating reminiscence - a 101-year-old Confederate veteran whose memory was clear and who spoke clearly and intelligently.

I'm forwarding that to a very fine author/historian I think highly of.

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Hey Dan, Have not been around much lately but wanted to share this with you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHDfC-z9YaE

As for this scenario, I played the Allies in a full campaign with Viberpol and can say a few things.
The Japanese real power in this scen. is "front loaded." That is to say that the force against you in 1942 is really overwhelming. Japan has the supply and oil to ramp up production much faster and as I recall some nasty aircraft come on line fast and plenty. The extra four division are there at the start which creates a great imbalance vs your already overtaxed land forces. Basically, unless he makes a big boo boo (unlikely) then he is going to be really powerful til mid 1943.

As for the extra ships, the Shinano comes on as a much better Taiho class CV for some reason, and there are more DDs and PC but it is not the ships but the air power that is painful. Not the end of the world though. A good Allied player can adjust and win. And, if not careful it is very easy for the Japanese player to burn up all of his resources too fast. I think the "pilot penalty" was never removed from this scenario and it can catch the Japanese player unaware.

You know my Allies golden rule. Don't screw up and lose your carriers early and you will win the game. Have fun.

[Lovejoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Question for the Peanut Gallery: On 12/9/41, B-17Ds from Mindanao targeted Miri's oil, scoring about 12 hits that knocked oil down by about 13 points.

Is there any reason for an Allied player to avoid or minimize these kinds of raid? Any kind of well-reasoned analysis that it shouldn't be done, because it puts too much pressure on Japan early?

I know Obvert (Erik) pursued this campaign heavily in his game with Lowpe. Erik sets an impeccable standard of sportsmanship, so I'm assuming that there's no doubt about the tactic (early targeting of industry in the DEI).

My general rule of thumb for "gaminess" is: (1) could it have been done in the real war, and (2) is there a reasonable counter? If the answer is "yes" to either, then its probably a legit tactic. I think the answer to both questions is "yes."

Contrary to the claims of one Forumite who veers into the hysterical, from time to time, I am open to discussion and input. As long as the discourse is polite and doesn't veer into Social Media namecalling or frothing.

Doesn't seem gamey to me. It could have been done in the real war, so I think it meets your legitimacy test. He can also counter it by trying to bring up fighters and other assets to protect Miri from your B-17s. It might force him to fortify Miri earlier than he had intended, but that's the nature of the beast. Throw as many spanners into the work as you can!

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
….
Not sure if the 50% damage comment is entirely accurate. Miri (oil and refinery) and Brunei (oil) start with everything at 50% damage. If you mean 50% of how it started then yes, that's accurate. The oil and refinery at Miri both begin at 150(150).

Thanks, Mike. Then no damage was done, because boht are 150(150).

Question for the Peanut Gallery: On 12/9/41, B-17Ds from Mindanao targeted Miri's oil, scoring about 12 hits that knocked oil down by about 13 points.

Is there any reason for an Allied player to avoid or minimize these kinds of raid? Any kind of well-reasoned analysis that it shouldn't be done, because it puts too much pressure on Japan early?

I know Obvert (Erik) pursued this campaign heavily in his game with Lowpe. Erik sets an impeccable standard of sportsmanship, so I'm assuming that there's no doubt about the tactic (early targeting of industry in the DEI).

My general rule of thumb for "gaminess" is: (1) could it have been done in the real war, and (2) is there a reasonable counter? If the answer is "yes" to either, then its probably a legit tactic. I think the answer to both questions is "yes."

Contrary to the claims of one Forumite who veers into the hysterical, from time to time, I am open to discussion and input. As long as the discourse is polite and doesn't veer into Social Media name calling or frothing.

Use your bombers as you see fit. If America was crazy enough to do the Doolittle raid then they're crazy enough to do anything. At least that's my 2-cents

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Gents. I'll keep reading, as long as folks chime in. We'll see if there seems to be a consensus. It's possible that all the Japanese-leaning readers have sworn off my AARs due to my "egregious" behavior in my game with Erik, so I do realize my sample may be skewed. But it doesn't hurt to ask. I think it's okay, but if the community rose up in unison to protest, I'd consider it's thoughts.

[Canoerebel]

12/9/41

CenPac: An RO-boat put two TTs into CV Lexington, so I've got a major problem on my hands. She's kind of in a box canyon at the moment. I think the odds of her surviving are at 10% or less. The next four to six turns should be interesting reading for the Peanut Gallery, and a journey towards likely misery for me.

[durnedwolf]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks, Gents. I'll keep reading, as long as folks chime in. We'll see if there seems to be a consensus. It's possible that all the Japanese-leaning readers have sworn off my AARs due to my "egregious" behavior in my game with Erik, so I do realize my sample may be skewed. But it doesn't hurt to ask. I think it's okay, but if the community rose up in unison to protest, I'd consider it's thoughts.

Well I'll be your huckleberry... I'm playing Japan against DOCUP right now. [8D]

[Canoerebel]

12/9/41

Intellecuts ex Nihilo: I love gleaning but I found the pickings particularly slim today.

In the South China Sea and Philippine Sea regions - the real hot spots early in the war - nothing major transpired today. The Mini KB is near Davao and a threat to some of the Scattering Herd plus damaged CA Houston, but it doesn't have unlimited sorties (as far as I know).

To the west, the forward enemy TFs have pulled away from Singkawang vicinity, moving north, creating a bit of breathing room. I'm tyring to shove supply into Singers.

What an awesome game we play. Too. Much. Fun.

[FlyByKnight]

Oh my, that's a real cruddy turn of events. What's the FLT on Lexington?

[GetAssista]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Question for the Peanut Gallery: On 12/9/41, B-17Ds from Mindanao targeted Miri's oil, scoring about 12 hits that knocked oil down by about 13 points.

Is there any reason for an Allied player to avoid or minimize these kinds of raid? Any kind of well-reasoned analysis that it shouldn't be done, because it puts too much pressure on Japan early?

I know Obvert (Erik) pursued this campaign heavily in his game with Lowpe. Erik sets an impeccable standard of sportsmanship, so I'm assuming that there's no doubt about the tactic (early targeting of industry in the DEI).

My general rule of thumb for "gaminess" is: (1) could it have been done in the real war, and (2) is there a reasonable counter? If the answer is "yes" to either, then its probably a legit tactic. I think the answer to both questions is "yes."

Allies bombed Nazi oil in Europe on several occasions using 4E raids. In DEI they should have even better understanding of where and what to bomb because those were their own oil wells mere days ago. Of course, in reality there were inevitable information relay and coordination issues with oil being Dutch/British and bombers being under US command. But we are long used to gloss over those.
Gamewise, the threat of oil bombing is a good thing to have for the sole reason of slowing down Japanese progress to a more real timeline. So yeah, bombs away methinks

[Canoerebel]

12/9/41

CV Lexington: Here she is - serious damage that decreases the possibilities of her escaping from the box canyon I put her in.

She has Sherman in command, which helps a bit. Next turn, I want to see if her damage drops in any way. If necessary, I may use at least one high speed run, if I think it will help.

But steering a course and choosing a plan to save her is indeed akin to shooting for an inside straight.

[BBfanboy]

Instead of that shallow diagonal move to the south, I suggest you use a waypoint straight down the natural hex diagonal so it gets south faster, which means less likely to meet KB if it moves westward.

[Lokasenna]

Nope. Bomb all the oil you want.

If Japan wants to make sure you don't bomb it, then they need to take the appropriate steps to prevent you from doing so.

It's honestly easier to just capture bases in a certain order to prevent the bombers from flying at all (anything that is AF5 and within extended range, or anything that is AF2 and within normal range) than it is to cover the targets with CAP. It's not that big of a list of bases.

[Lokasenna]

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Instead of that shallow diagonal move to the south, I suggest you use a waypoint straight down the natural hex diagonal so it gets south faster, which means less likely to meet KB if it moves westward.

I don't see why you couldn't just sail her due south and make for Fiji or thereabouts. Even at just 4 hexes per day, it's a great big ocean.

Once the fires go out (tomorrow probably), you could revert to mission speed and see if she'll go 6 hexes per day (by setting the daily hex destination to avoid going 8).

Yes, KB goes faster than that, but there really isn't THAT much for IJN naval search from the Marshalls.


I wouldn't be keeping both CVs near each other though. Better not to lose both if KB does hunt down where you sent them.

Also don't forget that you can do things like disband her at a convenient dot base and slap on the island camouflage.

[Canoerebel]

That diagonal course was the AI-set course before I got involved in the turn.

I sent Lexington and friends due north. During the turn, she separated from her DD escort and headed SE again.

But the worst news: KB moved at flank speed and got nav search on her and the surrounding TFs (but not on Enterprise). KB is about nine hexes SE and knows exactly what course and what speed Lex is making.

So I'm going to go the other way, traveling south at flank speed tomorrow, almost "turning into the track of the inbound torpedo," if you follow. It's a crazy move, but as likely to work as any other course. If KB moves nine hexes tomorrow, she'd be within range of Lex unless I do use flank speed.

Then, there's the enemy AO fleet trailing....and Enterprise might be able to intercept without risking a clash wish KB (assuming KB sticks to the Lex trail and that Dave doesn't truly outthink me on mutliple levels - a possibility but not a probably, I think).

So I've got lots of decicions to make. Lex is 99.8% a goner.

[Zorch]

You could try the seldom used CV to sub conversion. Similar to a Glen sub. [;)]

Seriously, try to take one with you. Or at least kill some oilers/planes/pilots. Hunting Lex will delay whatever long range plans he has.

[Canoerebel]

12/10/41

CenPac: A complex situation tinged with tragedy, for the USN. It's easy to get sloppy when the chips are down and there's a strong desire to make moves and get the ugliness over with. So I'm spending some time with this turn, thinking through the situation.

[BBfanboy]

There's a good chance that a flank speed run will increase Lex's damage to the point where it will be unable to launch aircraft. You might want to fly them off now to Wake, Enterprise, Canton Island - whatever is reachable.

[Canoerebel]

She's already too damaged to fly aircraft. Not only that, I overloaded her. Oh, I did the standard quick analysis to make sure Wake's 12 Wildcats could fit...but I forgot that one American CV starts the war with five squadrons already (Vindicators are the extra). So besides her damage, Lex has too many squadrons aboard for flight ops.

In other words, I've tripped all over myself in this theater, to open the game, and I'm facing an opponent who has carefully thought through his moves and executed them flawlessly. I'm working on a House Rule to protect Allied carriers from owner-operator mistakes.

[Anachro]

Sounds like me in my stupid settings for CVL Ryujo in my Japan game, but, hey, unlike me you can afford to lose a few carriers though it my slow down your tempo a bit. May 8th, December 11th - what's the difference?

[Mike Solli]

Since you can't use Lex's planes, you may want to pull off the pilots. No reason for them to die too.