Ocean of Blood. FatR (J) vs. Bigred (A).

[FatR]

July 22-24: Melee in Solomon Sea

Clash of the Titans: On the night of 23th, IJN returned to Woodlark, albeit without Kongo, which failed to rearm on the previous day. Raizo Tanaka led the Japanese destroyer squadron once again, while the enemy TF was commanded by Willis Lee. The forces clashed amids a fierce storm and this time Americans found themselves outmaneuvered:

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Woodlark Island at 104,133, Range 1,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
SOC-1 Seagull: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
DD Natsugumo
DD Arare
DD Kasumi, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Yudachi, Shell hits 13, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Kawakaze
DD Umikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Suzukaze
DD Shikinami

Allied Ships
CL Honolulu
CL Columbia, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
DD Allen
DD Litchfield
DD Schley
DD Stewart, Shell hits 4
DD Dent, Shell hits 5, on fire
DD Brooks
DD Sands, Shell hits 3, on fire

Poor visibility due to Thunderstorms with 60% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms and 60% moonlight: 1,000 yards
Range closes to 23,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 23,000 yards
Range closes to 17,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 17,000 yards
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
Range closes to 7,000 yards...
Range closes to 5,000 yards...
Range closes to 3,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 3,000 yards
Range closes to 1,000 yards...
Tanaka, Raizo crosses the 'T'
CL Columbia sunk by DD Yudachi at 1,000 yards
CL Honolulu engages DD Yudachi at 1,000 yards
DD Yudachi sunk by DD Dent at 1,000 yards
DD Kasumi sunk by DD Stewart at 1,000 yards

Yudachi heroically continued to launch torpedoes at Columbia even after being mostly pulverized by gunfire.

The second Japanese TF entered the knifefight with the weakened enemy:

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Woodlark Island at 104,133, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Chokai, Shell hits 8
CL Abukuma, Shell hits 9, on fire
DD Yugumo, Shell hits 1
DD Shiratsuyu
DD Hibiki
DD Oboro
DD Minazuki
DD Hayate, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CL Honolulu, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Allen
DD Litchfield
DD Schley
DD Stewart, Shell hits 1
DD Dent, Shell hits 5, on fire
DD Brooks
DD Sands, Shell hits 1, on fire

Reduced visibility due to Thunderstorms with 60% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms and 60% moonlight: 2,000 yards
Range closes to 23,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 23,000 yards
Range closes to 17,000 yards...
Range closes to 11,000 yards...
Range closes to 7,000 yards...
Range closes to 5,000 yards...
Range closes to 3,000 yards...
Range closes to 1,000 yards...
CA Chokai engages CL Honolulu at 1,000 yards
CL Abukuma engages CL Honolulu at 1,000 yards

Honolulu managed to score penetrating hits on both Chokai and Abukuma, but these did surprisingly little damage.

And coup de grace:

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Night Time Surface Combat, near Woodlark Island at 104,133, Range 2,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 2 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Chokai, Shell hits 2
CL Abukuma
DD Yugumo
DD Shiratsuyu
DD Hibiki
DD Oboro
DD Minazuki

Allied Ships
CL Honolulu, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Stewart, Shell hits 1
DD Dent, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Sands, Shell hits 3, and is sunk

Reduced visibility due to Thunderstorms with 53% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms and 53% moonlight: 2,000 yards

Strange that with less moonlight visibility is better.

Considering the storm and chaotic condition of the knifefight, Second Battle of Woodlark Island probably was one of the bloodies naval battles of the war, with most or all sunk ships perishing with all hands. I was surprised to see Bigred using so many old four-stack DDs on the frontline. Does he actually suffer from a shortage of escorts this late in the war? Well, losing another 3 DDs, even if one of the was an old type, certainly does not alleviate mine own shortage of them. On the good side, neither of my cruisers took major damage during the battle, except a 100/65 AA gun turret knocked out on Chokai. Unescorted Dauntlesses tried to attack them in Rabaul harbor during the day, and paid for it, while achieving no hits. Some PT boats tried to intercept my ships too, but achieved nothing.

All in all, another significant victory for IJN. Before fighting around Woodlark, cruiser losses (1st class/2nd class) in Solomons were 1/2 : 3, now they are 1/2 : 5/1 in my favor.

However, I excepted an even bigger victory in the day phase, after seeing, that Allies are not running for their lives, because both Kido Butai TFs (except Taikaku, which was stuck at piercide in Truk lagoon on the day of sailing) entered Solomon Sea on 22th. Indeed, search found a large number of TFs at Rossel Island. And then neither KB squadrons not LBA sortied against them. I can only assume weather saved Allies this time. Some Nells from Munda sank DDs Stewart and Dent at sea, and Judies from Tulagi flew against Ndeni instead, this time with markedly better results:

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Ndeni at 120,143

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 97 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 25 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y1 Judy x 43
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 18

Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk IV x 4
P-40K Warhawk x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y1 Judy: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
xAKL Darvel, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Lady Isobel, Bomb hits 3, heavy fires, heavy damage
YMS-119, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAKL Pulganbar, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Fiona, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
xAKL Kindur
xAKL Karuah, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
xAKL Vichy, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
YMS-136, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
AM Bayfield, Bomb hits 2, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
6 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
9 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
11 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
10 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000'
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Indeed, the upper altitude of divebombing attacks apparently got reduced to 14k. What's up with these minor but potentially game-crippling (if you fail to notice them in time) changes?

Anyway, this failure of Japanese aviation irritated me more than it should have. Also, I wanted to cover a resupply convoy to Milne Bay. So, on July 24, I decided to move KBs closer:

A mistake that nearly led to a huge disaster. During their night approach, my ACTFs were attacked by PT boats no less than five times, one of them getting close enough to hit CV Ryukaku with its 12.7mm MG. Miraculously, all torpedoes missed, and a couple of PT boats were sunk.

During the day, I found that the half of the Allied transport fleet that remained at Rossel Island was disbanded in the port, and the second half, thankfully, was in 8-hex strike range from KB position. Except that only 2 tiny strikes got launched and hit nothing. Allied strike from Rossel, however, was huge, despite clear overstacking, that led to my nightbombers destroying a significant number of Allied aircraft on ground there during two previous days:

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Morning Air attack on TF, near Deboyne Islands at 104,135
Weather in hex: Overcast
Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 31 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 16
A6M5b Zero x 172

Allied aircraft
Beaufort VIII x 10
P-38G Lightning x 17
P-40K Warhawk x 11
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 3
F4U-1 Corsair x 12
F6F-3 Hellcat x 24
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 7
SBD-3 Dauntless x 10
SBD-5 Dauntless x 20
TBF-1 Avenger x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5b Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort VIII: 6 destroyed
P-38G Lightning: 3 destroyed
P-40K Warhawk: 4 destroyed
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 3 destroyed
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 destroyed, 4 damaged
SBD-3 Dauntless: 6 destroyed
SBD-5 Dauntless: 8 destroyed
SBD-5 Dauntless: 3 destroyed by flak
TBF-1 Avenger: 11 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CVE Hosho
CV Kaga
CV Ryukaku, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
BB Yamashiro
CV Akagi
CVL Ryujo, Bomb hits 1, on fire

Carrier elite shot down close to 90 Allied aircraft, but sheer numbers allowed some to got through, and Dauntlesses scored. Ryukaku is amasingly at 31/3/5(1 major) damage, with 4 fires. Maybe I was lucky, but these Shokaku-kai carriers seem pretty tough. Ryujo is at 33/33(15 major)/4 damage, no fires. Will need a trip to shipyards, and its fighter squadron got rerouted to the closest airfield, for some reason.

LBA also flew no flights this time. Except for some unescorted Judies from Rabaul bombing loaded Allied troop transports at Horn Island and scoring some hits, at high cost:

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Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Horn Island at 91,128
Weather in hex: Thunderstorms
Raid detected at 119 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 30 minutes

Japanese aircraft
D4Y1 Judy x 21

Allied aircraft
Beaufighter VIc x 1
Spitfire Vc Trop x 3
P-38G Lightning x 5


Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y1 Judy: 10 destroyed, 1 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
xAP Kota Tjandi, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
LST-456
LST-17, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
LST-32, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
AM Wagga

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 14 (1 destroyed, 13 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
2 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' *
Naval Attack: 1 x 250 kg SAP Bomb

Of course, KB is going to withdraw at this point. I already was lucky to not suffer any irretrievable losses (yet) and I can't risk crippling my carrier force to the point it can't chance a battle with USN carriers even around my own bases.

And unfortunately, while Allies suffered quite numerous ship losses over the last four days, and now brutal plane losses as well, I don't think they were nearly enough to break their momentum in SWPac. Meanwhile, Woodlark Island was overran by their ground forces. The attack on July 23 ended up like this:

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Ground combat at Woodlark Island (104,133)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 2202 troops, 24 guns, 145 vehicles, Assault Value = 81
Defending force 2000 troops, 12 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 81
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3
Allied adjusted assault: 39
Japanese adjusted defense: 119
Allied assault odds: 1 to 3 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
417 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 28 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
116 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Guns lost 3 (1 destroyed, 2 disabled)

Assaulting units:
2/6th Armoured Regiment
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
1st Australian Para Bn /2
168th Field Artillery Regiment
F Det USN Port Svc

Defending units:
3rd South Seas Gsn
3rd Raiding Rgt /3
66th Naval Guard Unit
3rd South Seas Gsn /2
49th JNAF AF Unit /1

After it, I decided to cut my losses and start air evacuation. The island fell on the next day:

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Ground combat at Woodlark Island (104,133)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 2190 troops, 24 guns, 145 vehicles, Assault Value = 75
Defending force 923 troops, 2 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 17
Allied adjusted assault: 25
Japanese adjusted defense: 5
Allied assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 3)
Allied forces CAPTURE Woodlark Island !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), preparation(-)
fatigue(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
223 casualties reported
Squads: 6 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
36 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled


Assaulting units:
II Aus Corps Engineer Battalion
2/6th Armoured Regiment
1st Australian Para Bn /2
168th Field Artillery Regiment
F Det USN Port Svc

Defending units:
66th Naval Guard Unit
3rd Raiding Rgt /3
49th JNAF AF Unit /1

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66th Naval Guard Unit Wiped Out at Woodlark Island by attrition!!!
Japanese Unit(s) Wiped Out at Woodlark Island by attrition!!!

I managed to save approximately 35% of 66th Naval Guard by air. Overall, considering x3 defensive terrain and forts, this was quite disappointing.

[FatR]

July 25-28, 1943

My LBA dealt the final blow of the Solomons air offensive to the Allies, hitting airfield and port at Rossel Island. The cost in Zeros was pretty high, and not compensated with aircraft destroyed on ground, but bombers managed to attack the targets unscratched. Following damage was done to the ships in port:

LSI(L) Empire Star, Bomb hits 1, on fire
LST-461, Bomb hits 1, on fire
PT-343, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
LSI(L) Glenstrae, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
xAK Barwon, Bomb hits 1, on fire
LSI(L) Glenartney, Bomb hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
xAK Aeon, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
PT-283, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
xAP Daisy Moller, Bomb hits 1, on fire
AM Constant, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Sepia, Bomb hits 2, on fire
PG Swan, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAK Theofano Livanos, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAP Clan Macbean, Bomb hits 1
xAK Trevaylor, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
AKE Barbara Olson, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
LST-18, Bomb hits 1, on fire
xAKL Iowan, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

This is a bit of compensation for repeated failures to launch a decisive strike against the Allied landing armada, but I don't think it is a serious blow.

Meanwhile, I managed to resupply Milne Bay under KB's shadow and, save for DD Minekaze, damaged by a sub, the convoy returned to Rabaul unscathed.

On the other side of the empire, meanwhile, the long-predicted doom finally struck my airforce:

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Morning Air attack on Magwe , at 57,47
Weather in hex: Clear sky
Raid detected at 71 NM, estimated altitude 42,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 16
A6M7 Zero x 14
Ki-43-IIb Oscar x 29
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 38
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 27

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 65

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 3 destroyed
A6M7 Zero: 2 destroyed
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 6 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
24 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet
8 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet
6 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

Final losses are 6:1 in Allied favor, despite good units playing for the defense and proper layered CAP. I had a unit that just converted to Georges within range, but they were busy getting their planes ready for combat. And George is inferior to these monsters too, just to a lesser extent. But abandoning Burma airspace is out of the question. I need just a few weeks more, before China hopefully falls, and Frank enters service. With Franks and Georges I hope for favorable enough kill ratio to overwhelm almighty Jugs by numbers (Burma has plenty of air support at the moment).

[FatR]

It is almost August 1943, and it is turn 600 (43/07/29), so I think it is a good time for my next empire review.

Japanese Industry

My convoy mistake was costly, and I failed to preserve my stockpile of merchant points. On the positive side, I'm already able to shut down some naval shipyards, so HI stockpile now grows a bit faster, despite expanding air production. I'm also contemplating shutting down more HI, to preserve fuel for the fleet operations, if not now, then within the next month.


Take a look at the industry screen too:


Decelerating Katsuragi allowed me to stockpile a lot of Naval SY points, I think I'm too reluctant to actually turn shipyards off... It is sad to see how few destroyers I have in the queue. IIRC, none of the newest Yugumos and Akizukis were lost yet, but older types suffered grievously, so, as I said before, I'm short on them.

[FatR]

Air Production

I got too relaxed about it in early summer, seeing light losses everywhere and shut down some factories. Recent massive battles drained my pools for some planes, including Ki-44-IIc and Zeros.


As you can see, I decided to produce A6M4-J, even though I did not want to previously. That's because Bigred discovered the power of 4E nightbombing, and my Ki-45 squadrons, which previously held night invaders at bay, are quite literally getting wiped out, to the point that Ki-45 stockpile is now half of what it was. I have no doubt, that A6M4s will die in droves to bomber fire in the night as well, but at least they will take less engines down with them, and with 4x20 armament they might be able to shoot down something as well. Unless I'll staff nightfighting squadrons with untrained pilots, meant only to cause penalties to bomber accuracy. Which, I fear, I'll be forced to do at the current rate.

E15K Norm entered production this month. With its range, it should radically improve my search capabilities, maybe freeing some heavy flying boats for torpedo duty.

P1Y1 is also here, but it is not delivered to units yet. I'm stockpiling them for late-game defensive battles, as at the moment my forward airbases tend to lack air support for keeping these unreliable beasts operational.

Finally, N1K1-J is my best hope of countering Allied fighter superiority at the moment. Two big units are currently equipped with them, and I'm thinking about expanding production. Unfortunately, service rating 3 means that Georges also are difficult to maintain in operational condition, and suited only for my biggest airfields.

Aircraft research goes well:


I expect Frank to enter production in mid-August. Otherwise, much effort now goes into bringing 1945 planes into 1944. I accelerated D4Y3 to 44/3, and I think that at the current rate I'll be able to go straight to D4Y5 around this date.

[FatR]

I'm really short on time, but just to support Bigred's effort to maintain his AAR, I'll give a bullet point summary of events until August 26 of 1943:

1)CVL Ryujo was sunk by a sub attack when returning to Truk from KB misadventure in Solomons. This is the first major success of Allied subs in the war. Super-Es and air ASW, meanwhile, apparently killed a lot of subs during August, but their sacrifice had strategic consequences.

2)Chungking was taken. All that remains in China is far north and enormous numbers of remnants scattered across forest hexes.

3)Bigred launched the operation to retake Hawaii. Japanese LBA managed one big, coordinated strike with over 60 Betties getting through, but due to my screwup 2/3rds of them carried bombs. Remeber to always switch bombs to torpedoes manually for each group. BB Indiana was heavily damaged by 2 torps, an AKA, an APA, and a landing ship (all loaded with troops) sunk - maybe a fair exchange for about 100 planes this late in the warm but not nearly enough to weaken the Allied fleet. I turned KB back to port after seeing over 360 Hellcats on CAP and failing to damage any carriers. With most of my airbases already low on supplies and airgroups attrited, there was no chance of my LBA surviving at least 2-3 more turns to support KB, and every chance of Pearl being resupplied and reactivated this time. Hawaii finally will be reclaimed by Yankees.

4)Quite timely move for Bigred, I wanted to evacuate weak forces left there already, but wanted to wait 1-2 weeks more before first Unryus and repaired Ryukaku will join KB.

5)Ki-84a entered production. I have high hopes for it and believe it will allow me to maintain daylight air parity for at least another half-year. A6M8 is also now accessible, lots of them will be stockpiled for kamikaze attacks, alongside with Oscars.

[FatR]

After a huge pause, it is a good time to finally update this AAR, as the game currently is on December 31, 1943. I'll post here an exhaustive report on the Empire's condition, which might take several days.


Overall Situation

As you can see from the victory screen below, the second half of 1943 wasn't quiet by any means. In fact, air warfare reached unprecedented intensity by late autumn and ship losses on both siders remain high as well. While Allies made some gains, as will be described later, and might be on the verge of a major strategic victory, Japanese forces continue to exact severe cost in ships and planes for these advances. You might notice, though, that while Allies have lost a far greater number of ships since beginning of July, VP cost of sunk ships in that period increased roughly similarly for both sides, which is fairly troubling tendency for me, reflecting both the overall shift in the balance of power and increasing skill of Bigred, who managed to inflict about four significant naval defeats on my weakly protected convoys in Burma and Solomons. Allied ship losses, meanwhile, include a large proportion of landing crafts and PT boats.



One of the main reasons why situation on the frontlines gradually worsens in the crucial flaw in the Empire war machine, that I recognized inexcusably late. Namely, the severe lack of supply. Not only this was the key reason why I abandoned my master plan for 1943 (again, more on this later), at the moment all of my active fronts are in various degrees of supply starvation, thanks both to general shortages and successful destruction of several loaded convoys by Allied surface forces and aviation. Only DEI, which remains quiet, has a surplus of supply, and I'm currently forced to move it from Java and Sumatra, to feed the frontlines.



One of the reasons for this is large scale-battles, of course, but the detrimental effect of various production expansions is obvious here, which should be remembered, when observing my naval and air production wizardry. At the moment I'm trying to cut down on supply expenditures by shutting down non-essential base construction, but increasingly intense fighting and need to continue production expansion for late-war aircraft models eat all savings.

Otherwise the economics are in reasonable condition. I fear that I don't have nearly enough of a safety net in case Allies manage to impair the fuel flow from DEI, though. Overall oil-fuel balance was in equilibrum for a time, but the reserves started to dwindle again recently, due to greater fleet activity.

At the moment bigred is quite safe from Japanese autovictory:

Well, at least he has a very hard road ahead if he intends to actually end this game by autovictory of his own, before time runs out.

[FatR]

Manchukuo and Plans Regarding USSR

For a long time I intended to invade USSR in 1943. However, the combination of several factors eventually forced me to cancel the attack:

(1)Delay with Chinese operations which meant that forces weren't avaialable until about early November of 1943.
(2)Above-mentioned supply crisis led to realization that I won't be able to provide enough for the campaign of this magnitude.
(3)Low reserves of trained fighter pilots. Constant attrition left me with no more than 500-600 of them, which is clearly not enough to sustain a large air offensive without risking a drop in quality - particularly if I'll inevitably be forced to commit units that currently peform training duties to fighting Soviets or at least providing air cover for Japanese industry.
(4)General insufficiency of forces. Out-of-game events led me to reevaluating the balance of power again and I found that in pure AV I might not even have 3:2 superiority (after leaving very minimal reserves for other theatres), while Soviet 1943 infantry squads basically have twice the firepower of Japanese 1943 squads. Even knocking out some troops by the initial assualt won't be enough to ensure sufficient numerical edge.

As recent events in other theatres proved, my decision probably was correct.

At the moment I'm committed to preparing for the eventual defensive operations in Manchuria. On the map below, the solid line demarkates my intended MRL, and the dashed line my likely forward positions.



Everything to the north of that will be left with only static units and necessary garrizons. It is too vulnerable to flanking and once the inevitable retreat comes, Japanese troops are likely to be cut off or decimated by airpower and armor in the open terrain. In addition, holding these territories provides no real gain after USSS activation, as Russians will have airfields closer to Home Islands from the start and there is no valuable industry in Manchukuo to the north of my intended defensive lines (industry to the south is likely to be immediately nuked from the air too, but I'll try to keep it functioning as long as possible).

The plan is to, basically, hold position and keep Kwantung/Chinese Expeditionary forces surviving as long as possible after the Soviet activation, hopefully stalling the USSR juggernaut in a few protracted sieges. The maximum goal is to hold the line on the map, keeping valuable LI on the continent and bits of oil in the Empire's possession. If IJA will be too weakened by events on the other fronts, the minimum goal probably will be to keep Korea, so that enemy tactical aviation won't be able to cover nearly all of Japan from there and Sakhalin.

[FatR]

SWPac Front

Fighting was pretty much concentrated here until December. The main event was the protracted siege of Milne Bay, eventually won by Allies due to impossibility of effective resupply, even at great cost.

Japanese fleet losses in Solomons since the last update:

1 CA (Chokai this veteran of SWPac fighting fell victim to a stupid escort TF forming routine during a bombardment run to Buna, being detached to escort DD Ikazuchi, damaged by collision and sunk by aviation during the day).
3 CL (Katori, Kashima, Sendai, the first two lost to air attacks at Milne Bay, the last one to torpedoes from American destroyers in a naval battle near Gasmata)
6 DD (Onami, Minazuki, Hibiki, Ikazuchi, Yugiri, Okikaze, only Ikazuchi lost to air attacks, after the above-mentioned accident, and other destroyed or fatally damaged in surface battles, with Hibiki and Okikaze taking fatal blows from PT boats)
6 E (one to sub and the rest in surface battles)
4 SS (I-11, I-162, I-177 and RO-63, the last one bombed at Rabaul, others to surface ASW)
1 LSD (air attacks)
2 AV (air attacks)
6 AK (2 subs, 2 air attacks, 2 surface combat)
Plus a number of normal merchants and patrol boats.


Allies fleet losses are harder to ascertain. CVE Nassau was sunk by air attacks during the landing at Milne Bay and this was the only major Allied loss. I estimate that Allies lost about 14 DD and 6-7 SS in Solomons and on approaches since my last report, plus a metric ton of PT boats and landing craft, but no more assault transports.

As you can see on the map below, the focus of fighting entirely shifted to New Guinea. Allies make no effort to move up the Solomons chain, even though the Tulagi cluster was abandoned after becoming nearly impossible to resupply. The thick red line is my MLR, "The Bismark Barrier", so to say, the thin line marks bases that are still garrizoned and operable, but are not to be reinforced. As you can see, Bigred made two incursion into my defensive line. Finschhafen held against the initial Allied landing and I hope to push the small force ashore into the sea, but I was way too slow to garrizon Gazmata and it fell. A counterinvasion might be in order, if I manage to solve my supply problems in time. Green circles mark major operable Allied airfields - Buna and Woodlark Island so far were kept suppressed by air and naval raids. Just at the turn of the year Allies unloaded a convoy at Salamaua (not without losing a buch of loaded landing craft to my surface raiders, but Japanese air response failed pathetically), so it is likely that Bigred intends to continue pushing along the coast. Lae and Nadzab are fairly well garrizoned, while Finschhafen has an infantry regiment. I'm not sure if I should deploy my infantry reserve from Truk at the region - the problem at the moment is resupply, not lack of AV, as Allied invasion so far haven't been very strong (you'll soon see where most of the Marines really are).

[FatR]

Gilberts and Marshalls

As you can see, Allies have landed at the far outer end of my perimeter at the second half of December, overrunning weakened garrizons at Tabiteua cluster and later taking undedended Abemama. Japanese LBA responded with little sucess, eventually sinking 2 DDs and 1 LST and damaging CA Quincy (almost certainly not sunk) at the cost of approximately 100-120 planes. Also a sub (I-175) was lost in exchange for a single DE sent to the bottom. I must admit that I'm uncertain whether to fight, or to fall back. Mili is really the only strongly defended base in the entire region (as fragments of units destroyed at Hawaii were rebuilt there) and Marshalls will need a large influx of troops to stand a chance of seriously delaying the Allied advance. Again, I have reserves at close rear, at Truk, but probably not enough even if I manage to deploy them without losses (particularly as divisional units, even after being split in three, are unlikely to fit small atolls). As you'll see soon enough, events on the other side of my perimeter may force me to abandon my weak outer perimeter east of Ponape to its doom.

[FatR]

Burma

Until late December Burma was an entirely quiet theatre, save for occasional, successfully suppressed, bursts of Allied air activity and some convoy battles, that ended very poorly for Japanese, due to my negligence. This lulled me into entirely unwarranted complacency, to the point, where I forgot to actually order a search LBA unit, placed on Andamans to scan eastern part of Bay of Bengal/Arakan coast, to fly searches. For at least several weeks. Yes, my attention to the game was slipping now and then, due to various problems, why are you asking?

Anyway, Bigred cleverly used my monumental screwup and managed to stealthily move a whole invasion force along the coast, to (undefended, yeah, that was another dumb mistake) Pegu. I was basically alerted to the fact that something is up by US Marines and Australians hitting the beaches. Even more cleverly, Bigred moved a significant force through jungle to the road between Mandalay and Lashio. First, that severed the supply flow from China (so once Pegu was taken, Burma was entirely cut off from resupply by land). Second, that disctracted a large part of my main force at Mandalay at the crucial moment. Even better, immediately before the invasion the Allied fleet sent another Burma resupply convoy to the bottom, leaving Japanese forces in Burma with nearly nonexistent reserves. Japanese LBA entirely failed to interfere with unloading, although, due to the surprisingly weak carrier cover, a number of British ships, including CVL Hermes and CVE Boxer, were sunk.

Two factors prevented this huge crisis from immediately escalating to absolute disaster. First, Bigred's landing force had split into three directions, marching on Rangoon, Toungoo and Moulmein at once. Toungoo was swiftly reinforced by troops detached from Mandalay, while the weak garrizons at Rangoon and Moulmein received reinforcements by airlift, that allowed them to survive initial assaults. Second, and more importantly, while Bigred probably expected KB to hang somewhere in the Pacific, because that's where it was for most of 1943, it, in fact, was at Balikpapan, and swiftly arrived to the scene, alongside with hastily assembled surface forces, providing air and surface superiority, and allowing supplies and major reinforcements to reach Rangoon.

This might need a bit of elaboration - during late autumn I started to strongly suspect that the Allied drive through SWPac is too half-hearted. Air activity was heavy, but I haven't seen much in the way of major naval forces in months. The conclusion was that Bigred is planning a major landing operation elsewhere. I discounted Gilberts because Bigred knew that KB is at Truk since late spring (although, as you can see, that was not entirely justified - Allies managed to launch a quick island grab there). Obvious targets were DEI or Northern Pacific. But it was too late to invade Kuriles before winter, and they are exceptionally well-fortified anyway. DEI, though, particularly Eastern DEI, has just too many bases to rely on garrizons for defence. So, after Bigred checked Truk for a few days in November and then stopped recon flights, after confirming carrier presence, I stealthily moved nearly all of the Japanese carrier force west.

It should be mentioned here, that shortly after that Kido Butai suffered its biggest loss in the war. CV Renkaku, one of extra carriers added in RA mod, and the final Japanese CV to join the fleet, was torpedoed on its way from Home Islands. She reached Truk with moderate damage. But, unfortunately, I got the bright idea of sending Renkaku back for repairs by roughly the same way near Marianas. So, another US sub dealt a fatal blow to her. That was a loss that could have been avoided had I paid more attention.

Anyway, at the moment large and well-supplied Japanese reinforcements have unloaded at Rangoon. They might well be still insufficient to kick the Allies out, though - the initial deliberate attack has failed. Japanese forces in Central Burma meanwhile inflicted horrendous casualties on Allies in defensive battles, particularly in failed assaults on Mandalay, but lack of supplies prevents them from counterattacking. This is also the reason why Japanese airforce has a very hard time protecting troops at Mandalay. Supply doesn't flow by western road from Rangoon to Magwe, maybe there is still not enough of it in Rangoon.

Meanwhile, several USN carriers suddenly made their appearance on December 31 in the southern part of the Andaman Sea and hit Japanese convoys and fleet train, as well as the small force of second-rate carriers fresh from Home Islands (recently arrived Shinyo and Chiyoda and Hosho which was involved in escorting damaged Renkaku). Hosho was torpedoed twice but reached Victoria Point safely, while Chiyoda took a couple of bombs and the port crews at Victoria Point seem to be failing to contain raging fires. I also lost the entire force of fast AOs that served KB, a bunch of small tankers and a couple of troop-loaded AKs. This Allied fleet most likely just arrived into the theatre... I really did not expect it, after noticing Allied carriers in Gilberts and seeing how the Pegu invasion fleet was guarded just by British junk. Japanese LBA failed to do much of anything, launching just one sortie. But that ended with putting 2 torpedoes into BB Washington. I can only hope she fails to get out of range on the next turn.

I'll try to make an (approximate, for the Allied side) list of fleet losses in this campain to date later.

[FatR]

So, approximate fleet losses in the Burma campaign so far:

Japan

CVL Chiyoda (yeah, she is almost certainly doomed)
CL 3 (Nagara, Isuzu, Natori, all lost in a very unfortunate surface combat near Rangoon)
DD 3 (Matsukaze, Shiratsuyu, Kawakaze)
AO 6 (!) Good thing that tanker losses up to now were light.
AK 3 Despite having exceptional AA armament by Japanese standards, they remain extremely vulnerable to air attack. I guess only DP guns of 100mm and above are worth anything in air defense, automatic AA mostly just creates an illusion of high flak rating.


Allies

CVL Hermes, CVE Battler
CA 2 (Sussex, Shropshire)
CL 3 (Kenya, Newcastle, Caradoc)
DD 5 (Charrette, Sampson, Ammen, Van Galen, Stronghold)
SS - I've observed 2 almost certain kills by surface ASW, and some likely were sunk by air attacks.

This list might be too optimistic.


2-3/1/1943 update: Allied CV raiders have retreated... Meanwhile, Bigred finally figured out that my aviation at Magwe has no supply to repair damaged planes and the situation in Central Burma just escalated to catastrophic. I'm seriously contemplating a retreat from Irrawaddy's valley regardless of the battle for Rangoon's outcome, because I'm not sure how I can restore the air umbrella there with all airfields being heavily damaged. Lack of attention to supply situation is what doomed me here - I believe that the Allied aviation is on the verge of exhaustion and already unable to fill squadrons with modern fighters, so if only the Magwe air complex was properly supplied, I would be able to win the air battle. Allied ground forces are pretty weak after their costly attacks and might be unable to rout my main body in the process. Will appreciate any advice here.

In a bit of good news, the garrizon of Finschhafen kicked the elements of 30th Australian Brigade into the sea. Solomons are of little importance next to the crisis in Burma, though.

[FatR]

I'll post an economic report a bit later, because results of the review I made at the end of December prompted me to make some significant changes.

Meanwhile, some opinions on Japanese 1943 fighter arsenal, including both stock staples and new stuff from Reluctant Admiral.

Formula 1 Tier: Ki-84 and N1K1-J. Really, really good. Can fly circles around any Allied second-generation fighter and Hellcats too, achieving very lopsided kill ratios. About equal to Corsairs and Lightnings. And the only planes that have a reasonable chance of drawing even with dreaded T-Bolts (in rare cases even getting better of them, although this might be due to excellent pilot cadres in some of my veteran units). N1K1-J also is the best available 4E slayer. For the best results, I use Ki-84s at 20k and N1K1-Js at max altitude.
Their drawback is service rating. For short bursts of air activity it matters little, but if a battle lasts more than 1-2 days, significant numbers of planes end up in maintenance even on great airfields.

Workhorse Tier: Ki-44-IIc, A6M8 (RA addition). Not really as good, but can keep going in the defensive battles where Franks and Georges end up groundbound. Usually cannot handle T-Bolt (and, lately, Spitfire VIII) at all, but do OK against other Allied third-generation planes, at least when fighting over their own airfields or otherwise having an advantage. Generally better that the Allied second generation.

Ablative Armor Tier: Ki-43-IIb, A6M5b. Clearly obsolescent and are at best equal to even the worst of the Allied fighters currently produced. Worth using because of their combination of extra range and SR1, allowing them to escort bombers farther and not suffer as much problems when airfields get overstacked in emergencies.

Bronze Medal Tier: Ki-61, A6M4-J (RA Addition), A6M7. Planes that are clearly inferior to available alternatives. I had absolutely disappointing results trying to get any mileage out of Ki-61s, any of its variants. Tojos simply score more kills in similar situations AND have SR 1. A6M4-J has inferior flight characteristics, that make it only good as a bomber interceptor for rear area bases... but N1K1-J can do the same better, as the rear area bases that warrant fighter cover ought to have good airbases, and this situation comes up rarely anyway.

The Only Option Tier: Ki-45 KAIa. Simply speaking, there are no other adequate fighter-bomber in IJAAF arsenal in the version of the mod we're still using (I've tried to fix it in the later versions). The rest carry large-calibre guns, which can't hit anything. So I'm stuck with Ki-45 KAIa until the end of war.

[FatR]

Economic Condition Report

As you can see from the screenshot, with completion of nearly all of the Japanese carriers in the scenario, I've cut the naval production by more than 50%, increasing HI flow despite shutting down some HI to save fuel for the fleet. Unfortunately, increasing demands from pilot training and impending loss of the Magwe oil field is going to strain my HI production to the point where Japan barely breaks even from month to month. I've large reserves of armament and vehicles and while production at the moment exceeds projected demands from arriving LCUs, I continue to build them in large numbers, to provide a reserve for rebuilding of destroyed units and fragments. Air production still isn't very huge, compared to other expenditures. This is likely to change once several massively researched airframes come online in 1944.



Speaking of air production. I'm building a wide variety of aircraft to test their performance, where I have doubts, or to fill different tactical niches (for example, I've resumed A6M5b production after accidentally converting everything to A6M8, because I'm using A6M5b for escort). I'm also averse to converting factories for planes that might be even somewhat useful, because this saves very little, compared to building new factories from zero. So, I still have factories for planes like A6M4-J (I plan to restart this one once A6M8-J is available). My production numbers might be not very impressive, but so far they were enough to satisfy frontlines' needs. If you wonder why some other factories aren't working, I don't have enough engines for D4Y2 (a mistake with calculation acceleration caused D4Y5 to become available before D4Y3, so I can't convert it) and P1Y1, and as about Ki-43-IIb, I barely use this type at the moment and have a significant stockpile for future kamikaze needs already and will resume production for the same purpose once Ki-43-IIIa becomes available in 44/6.



As about engines, it boils down to expanding production of Mitsubishi Ha-43 and Nakajima Ha-45 now. Maybe I'll up Ha-44 production a bit, to stockpile more of them for Ki-94-II before Japan is threatened by strategic bombing.



Meanwhile, aircraft reseach goes on just fine. I expect A7M2 to become available on 44/3, although because it got a month of acceleration due to a now-fixed research bug, I promised Bigred to delay its production for a month. Either way, once it is close to deployment, I'll switch all or nearly all research factories to A7M3 to make it available in autumn of 1944. A7M2 is mainly needed for carrier use, because as a land-based plane it is mildly inferior to N1K5-J, which also quickly approaches production. A7M3 (courtesy of my own work on RA mod), though, is the hope and dream of IJNAF. With 6 20-mm cannons, service rating of 2 and relatively passable flight characteristics, it is going to be my main naval fighter for late war.
IJAAF, unfortunately, will be forced to rely on less capable Ki-84r. Sure, it has an amazing combination of speed and MVR for the time I'm going to get it, but it is deficient in terms of armament and service rating. I cannot hope to succeed by rearming everything on it, too weak against massed 4Es. IJAAF still lags behind in terms of bomber interception and will continue to do so. I'm already producting Ki-61-II KAI (which carries 4x20mm guns in RA) as a solution for the time being, but with their SR of 4, these planes are not going to be safe to station anywhere except Rabaul. It also is not very good in aspects other than firepower.
As some of the previously researched planes reached production, I switched their factories to late-war types. I want C6N1-S as it is the fastest Japanese night fighter, and Ki-201 to test if its speed can overcome other faults. I'm researching Ki-67b hard because it is the best protected Japanese torpedo bomber (I'm also feeling that Helen's range is too low for my needs, at least for night bombing missions, so I see the benefits for using both Ki-49 and Ki-67).

[FatR]

January 5, 1944

The report can speak louder than description...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Mandalay (59,46)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 89898 troops, 1876 guns, 2453 vehicles, Assault Value = 2501
Defending force 87944 troops, 934 guns, 1370 vehicles, Assault Value = 2388
Allied engineers reduce fortifications to 3
Allied adjusted assault: 3366
Japanese adjusted defense: 567
Allied assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 3)

Allied forces CAPTURE Mandalay !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
20550 casualties reported
Squads: 688 destroyed, 149 disabled
Non Combat: 1910 destroyed, 79 disabled
Engineers: 304 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 265 (257 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1004 (1004 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units retreated 18


Allied ground losses:
3549 casualties reported
Squads: 81 destroyed, 519 disabled
Non Combat: 5 destroyed, 96 disabled
Engineers: 41 destroyed, 149 disabled
Guns lost 142 (5 destroyed, 137 disabled)
Vehicles lost 104 (11 destroyed, 93 disabled)


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
9th Indian Division
XV Corps Engineer Battalion
254th Armoured Brigade
40th Infantry Division
24th (Sep) Infantry Regiment
2nd British Division
22nd (East African) Brigade
XXXIII Corps Engineer Battalion
255th Armoured Brigade
23rd Indian Division
14th Chindit Brigade
17th Indian Division
50th Tank Brigade
7th Indian Division
5th Indian Division
9th Australian Division
IV Corps RIASC Base Force
6th Mixed A/T Mtr Regiment
226th Field Artillery Battalion
14th Army
XXXIII Indian
4th Field Artillery Battalion
XV Corps RIASC Base Force
249th Field Artillery Battalion
XXXIII Corps RIASC Base Force
23rd AA Bde
501st Coast AA Regiment
134th Field Artillery Battalion
XV Indian
30th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
IV Indian
78th Light AA Regiment
1st USMC Engineer Aviation Battalion
823rd Engineer Aviation Battalion

Defending units:
37th Division
53rd Division
48th Division
3rd Tank Division
21st Division
39th Division
56th Division
Southern Army
12th JAAF Base Force
23rd Army
15th Army
7th JAAF Base Force
36th Field AA Battalion
6th Field AF Construction Battalion
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
8th Mountain Gun Regiment
35th Fld AA Gun Co
19th JAAF Base Force


Meanwhile repeated attempts to rout Allied forces in Rangoon hex have failed. Japanese reinforcements managed to rout an American regiment at Moulmein, but this is a weak compensation for everything else. I'm positioned to lose 10 divisions and a ton of support and flak units. The situation of maximum emergency is declared across the Empire, but I might need at least two weeks to organize another credible counterattack in South Burma, and these troops will have a hard time surviving that long. This is not a war-winning breakrthrough yet, but Japan will have a very hard time stabilizing the front, if the Burma Area Army is annihilated. Reestablishing the land link to Burma is the top priority.

CVL Chiyoda sank as well. At least Hosho got away. Air situation deteriorates too, because my units are forced to fly from poorly supported airfields that recently were in the rear and Bigred launched a devastating night bombing campaign over the last two turns.

[FatR]

On Miracles of The Random Number Generator

Both ships suffered the same sort of attack in recent action, a single torpedo from a PT boat. As you can see, damage was quite different. So, one should not lose hope (or get into high spirits) upon seeing a single extreme result in the game.

[FatR]

Up to January 23rd, 1944

I'm still failing to update my AAR... but at least there is some progress in the actual game. On January 22 Japanese troops unloaded at Rangoon reestablished the land link to Indochina, thoroughly crushing 3 Allied division in the process, including 1st Marine, which Bigred boldly attempted to land directly at Rangoon (which cost Allies dearly in terms of ships), as KB was not far away, escorting another reinforcement convoy.

However, only 2 Japanese divisions out of 10 caught in Central Burma and only about half of support and flak units managed to move by rail to Toungoo, where they might possibly survive long enough to be relieved. 6 infantry and 2 tank divisions, plus a ton of flak and airfield support units were cut off, defeated multiple times and are certainly going to be annihilated. I even failed to airlift fragments from 2 infantry divisions, as they were restricted.

I wonder what Allied supply situation in Central Burma is. I have an equivalent of about 12 divisions (albeit with some of them battered) in Southern Burma or on the way, and a sizeable force of about 6 divisions worth in Lashio and on the way through the mountains to Burma. This is clearly not enough for a counterattack against Allied forces operating with sufficient supply (at least 9 divisions, albeit all battered, not counting 3 divisions crushed at Rangoon-Pegu, plus 3-4 divisions worth of smaller units), even if two divisions at Toungoo can be saved, but if Allies might run out of supply... No signs of that, though, so Central Burma is likely lost for good.

Meanwhile, at CenPac Allies seized Ocean Island, defeating the garrizon. Japanese aviation from Mili and subs got some good hits in, sinking at least 1 and probably 2 CVEs, 1 AO, some smaller ships and damaging an old BB. This cost them dearly, and while aviation is ready to keep up the fight, my Pacific sub force is scattered, with 4 subs sunk, and several more badly damaged. These losses were avenged when I-43 sank CVL Cabot, while patrolling along southewestern coast of Australia (taking heavy damage in return, but still limping home at the moment). Bigred still does not pay enough attention to ASW and convoy discipline, but power of Allied ASW is such that I'm now losing some subs whenever groups of them are deployed anyway.

[FatR]

I managed to get most of the recently damaged ships to Singapore, including Hosho. However, an unpleasant surprise awaited me:


This is at 135 Repair Shipyard. Looks like I'll need to blow more precious supply on expanding it, if I want Musashi to go anywhere before the war ends.

[FatR]

Air Losses

Up to January 22, 1944. The Allies still must field numerous second-generation fighters through 1943 and early 1944, losing over 560 Warhawks, almost 200 Airacobras, over 300 Hurricanes and about 310 Wildcats since March 1, 1943. Plus 641 Hellcat, which is technically third generation, but in practice Hellokitties performance in AE is closer to that of second-generation fighters (that's why it was boosted in later versions of RA). Losses for newer fighter types (Thuds, Spitfires, Corsairs, Lightnings)for the same period are harder to analyze, I roughly estimate them at around 1600 planes.

This high-intensity air warfare, primarily defensive for Japanese, obviously benefits my side so far. Not only it means that the Allies still can't build a fighter force capable of contesting air superiority at least over my own bases, when they must send pilots in second-rate planes to fight over enemy territory, their pilot pools suffer, and Japanese fighter pilots in the frontline units accumulate experiences faster than they are killed off. I'll post screens of my most heroic fighter units later. Overall I think that my pilot cadres are in decent shape for early 1944, although air attacks on the enemy fleet in CenPac now start to exact heavy price, and the fighter pilot reserve remains troublingly limited. I'm considering creating dedicated naval escort units filled with low-grade pilots, to avoid wasting my veterans on what is essentially ablative armor missions in AE. In my Scen 2 game I'm already doing it, but in this game I've already used up all graduated pilots for both services, and now I'm pulling them into on-map training units straight from the training program, so any green pilots now are going to be very, very green.

[FatR]

Air Heroes of The Empire

Looking at the roster of aces, I can find satisfaction in the fact that it doesn't look like a funeral list (yet). If you wonder why some aces are in TRACOM - I dismissed to pool all the veterans that were unable to fly out of Magwe after supplies in Central Burma were exhausted. Need to return them back to units. At the moment my airforce still holds a slight tech advantage in fighter quality (IMO), but balance is only going to shift in Allied favor, so better to use great pilots now. Overall losses are horrible, but thankfully irrecoverable pilot losses now form a lesser percentage of plane losses. Still, I only manage to maintain quality of my pilots only by keeping over half of my airforce in the traning program, and this now came at odds with the need to cover major SRA ports from more carrier raids, and possibly 4E attacks. 4Es already could reach Georgetown before the new Allied conquests in Burma.


My top scoring unit, Kagoshima Kokutai S-2:



Fought in Burma (with some detours to Andamans) since arrival on frontlines, with most kills scored in air defense of Magwe.

The top scoring Army unit, 1st Sentai:



It started its combat career early in the game, first distinguishing itself on Java and then actively participating in practically every major action on the eastern flank of Japanese perimeter. Still, in both sheer number of kills and kill-to-loss ratio it lags behind Kagoshima Kokutai - a testament to inferiority of the Army planes. As a note, it was one of the first IJNAF units upgraded to Ki-84, but I switched it back to Ki-44, because immediately after the Cental Burma disaster my airforce was forced to operate with massively insufficient air support. Also, a large number of Franks and Georges were caught on the ground, incapable of taking off. Instead of destroying them by unit withdrawal, I put all the remnants in two units that were completely disabled by the time the disaster became apparent, and railroaded these units to Toungoo, in hope that Allies will expend some effort blasting them on the ground. Anyway, as a result I'm simply short on the newest fighters at the moment.


For comparison, my top-scoring units in the Solomons/New Guinea theatre (although, to be fair, both of these units were transferred to New Guinea from Andamans, and 64th Sentai is in action since the first day of the war, spending most of it on the western corner of the Empire), where action was somewhat smaller in scope, and spread across a wider front:




Finally, the best Japanese carrier fighter unit:



At least relatively careful and conservative use of KB allowed me to preserve a core of great pilots on Japanese flattops. But I think pilots from land-based airgroups nowhave some not very nice words to say abouе "carrier kid-glove slackers".

[FatR]

24/1/44 - 5/02/44

The game is going slowly these days, largely because I'm overworked. Several significant events happened in less than two weeks.

Burma

On February 4th a Japanese army marching from Rangoon routed Allied rearguard in the wilderness hex before Prome with a shock attack, supported by almost all Army and Navy level bombers in the western half of the map. I wonder if Allies in Central Burma suffer from general supply shortage, or if vigorous bombing contributed to that.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at 55,51 (near Prome)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 47086 troops, 460 guns, 85 vehicles, Assault Value = 1587
Defending force 20089 troops, 588 guns, 173 vehicles, Assault Value = 593
Japanese adjusted assault: 1968
Allied adjusted defense: 435
Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1459 casualties reported
Squads: 22 destroyed, 165 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 17 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 38 disabled
Guns lost 23 (1 destroyed, 22 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
4759 casualties reported
Squads: 196 destroyed, 63 disabled
Non Combat: 305 destroyed, 53 disabled
Engineers: 13 destroyed, 34 disabled
Guns lost 110 (39 destroyed, 71 disabled)
Vehicles lost 37 (23 destroyed, 14 disabled)
Units retreated 6

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
38th Division
15th Division
Guards Mixed Brigade
54th Division
24th Ind.Mixed Brigade
8th Area Army
14th Army
3rd Medium Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
8th Australian Division
75th Indian Brigade
11th (East African) Division
501st Coast AA Regiment
214th Coast AA Regiment
23rd AA Bde
108th Tank Attack AT Rgt /9

Besides thoroughly trashing several Commonwealth units, which might be hard to rebuild considering their relatively limited replacements, and opening the way for smashing the Allied army again in the open ground at Prome, this opens the possibility of saving the part of my forces that was cut off at Magwe/Meiktila. These units are even miraculously receiving some supply now. But after being smashed several time and bombed from the air for half a month, they are little more than numbers now anyway.



My second army at Toungoo remains blocked by an Allied force that is outnumbered only 2:1 and poor flow of supply (I wonder why it is possible to get beans and bullets from Rangoon across hundreds of kilometers of Allied-occupied countryside and jungle, but not to get them to Toungoo through the road).

Also, a big army from China and Kwantung Army is massing in Lashio. My fighters had some success intercepting routine Allied bombing there recently (after the situation in Southern Burma stabilized enough to spare some aviation. The supply situation, though, is bad, and with the rough terrain around I'm not confident about the possibility of breakthrough towards Mandalay.

Chiang Mai, captured early by Allied paratroops, is about to be attacked with 1 1/2 divisions. I don't want it to become an active airbase.

Meanwhile, some of my units evacuated from Burma as fragments are rebuilding at Singapore. I'm splitting my divisions in 3, when they need to rest and recover, and this seems to work - 3rd Tank Division has grown to over 200 AV in half a month. Units rebuilt from fragments are losing all of their experience about the default 50-55 level, but divisions with high-quality TOEs are precious anyway.



Southern Pacific: The Second Naval Battle of Woodlark Island

A tremendous clash happened there on February 4th, as USN laid a trap for a routine Japanese 8-ship bombardment run (or at least I think that's what happened). Unfortunately for the Allies, on the same day I decided to launch a massive air raid against Milne Bay, where a concentration of Allied shipping and planes was spotted. As few planes were left to cover Rabaul, I emptied the harbor of valuable combatants and the Japanese TF was twice as strong as usual.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Woodlark Island at 105,132, Range 12,000 Yards
Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 4 destroyed
OS2U-3 Kingfisher: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Shell hits 1
CB Kawachi, Shell hits 1
CA Maya, Shell hits 5
CA Mogami, Shell hits 1
CA Mikuma, Shell hits 2
CA Aoba, Shell hits 1
CA Kako, Shell hits 4
DD Yoizuki, Shell hits 6, on fire
DD Takanami
DD Kiyonami, Shell hits 3
DD Hamanami, Shell hits 6, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Oyashio, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1
DD Shikinami
DD Ayanami
DD Oboro, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
BB Pennsylvania, Shell hits 30, and is sunk
CL Tromp, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
CL Biloxi, Shell hits 14, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Bennett, Shell hits 1
DD Bullard, Shell hits 1
DD Bush, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
DD Izard
DD McCord
DD Mullany, Shell hits 6, heavy fires
DD Nicholas, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Philip, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DD Picking
DD Stephen Potter, Shell hits 1
DD The Sullivans

Improved night sighting under 78% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions and 78% moonlight: 11,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
Range closes to 18,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 18,000 yards
Range closes to 12,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 12,000 yards
CB Kawachi engages BB Pennsylvania at 12,000 yards

Mod-added CB Kawachi proved her worth in this and previous battles. Although her guns were unable to penetrate Pennsylvania belt from beyond 6k yards, in night combat this didn't matter as much, as opposed to their high accuracy.

After this battle the Japanese flottilla bombarded plane-overstacked Woodlark, causing heavy damage, but then in the morning...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Woodlark Island at 105,132, Range 24,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna, Shell hits 3
CB Kawachi
CA Maya
CA Mogami, Shell hits 1
CA Mikuma, Shell hits 3
CA Aoba, Shell hits 1
CA Kako, Shell hits 3
DD Yoizuki, Shell hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Takanami, Shell hits 6, and is sunk
DD Kiyonami
DD Uranami, Shell hits 4, on fire
DD Shikinami
DD Ayanami

Allied Ships
CA Boston, Shell hits 7, heavy fires
CL Boise, Shell hits 1
DD Bell, Shell hits 1
DD Colahan, Shell hits 1
DD Dortch, Shell hits 1
DD Erben, Shell hits 1
DD Franks
DD Lewis Hancock
DD Heermann, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Hickox
DD Hunt
DD Ingersoll

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
Range closes to 24,000 yards...
CONTACT: Allies radar detects Japanese task force at 24,000 yards
CONTACT: Japanese radar detects Allied task force at 24,000 yards

The advantage was still ours, but with Japanese ships now out of ammo, they were unable to deliver a decisive blow or sink anything. USN still wasn't done with us:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Woodlark Island at 105,131, Range 21,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
BB Haruna
CB Kawachi, Torpedo hits 1
CA Mogami
CA Mikuma
CA Aoba
DD Kiyonami
DD Shikinami
DD Ayanami

Allied Ships
PT-222
PT-339
PT-356
PT-363
PT-364, Shell hits 2, and is sunk
PT-365, Shell hits 1, and is sunk

Maximum visibility in Partly Cloudy Conditions: 28,000 yards
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 21,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 21,000 yards


Overall, 4 Japanese DDs, all new, were lost: Hamanami, Takanami, Yoizuki and Oyashio. Allied air attack against the retreating ships were weak, but still finished off Hamanami. CA Maya was hit by a sub on the way back, taking 2 torps and barely making Rabaul. Night air attacks against the Rabaul harbor on February 5th increased damage to the Japanese fleet.



While this still a significant victory, despite losing those valuable ships (and the first actual losses among the newest Japanese DD classes) now the Combined Fleet is officially and truly past the point of not having enough destroyers to provide sufficient escort for its combat groups, between this and 8 DDs sunk in December-January. I'm conteplating replacing a part of KB escort complement with E-class ships, just to free a few Yugumos for the frontline. The situations on the Allied side seems to be exact opposite after huge battleship/cruiser losses through the game (Bigred so far holds back fast USN battleships, though) and ample Fletcher class reinforcements. I think I've sent close to 30 Fletchers to the bottom by now, but as you can see, they remain numerous. I, on the other hand, can look forward mostly to Matsus, which are clearly inferior even to most of the pre-war USN DDs.

Meanwhile, the raid on Milne Bay I mentioned above went well, against weak CAP parts of which were actually on a training mission. However, most of the ships sunk in the harbor were landing craft, and those reappear in the pool if destroyed. I think the biggest targets I managed to get were two obsolete Dutch DDs and now I regret not sending a majority of bombers against the airfield, which was full of 4Es and transport planes.



Central Pacific: Invasion of Mili

Bigred has not been slow and struck directly at Mili, invading on February 2nd, while KB still was undergoing maintenance after active operations near Burma coast. The invasion was spotted one turn before, so I countered with mass deployment of midget subs, plus all three torpedo boats in the pool... plus aviation, of course, but here I found that my surrounding bases were inadequate in both air support and supply, while Mili was subjected to strong naval and air bombardment, so mostly only fighters took off from there. Midgets have failed patherically, sinking only one DD in exchange for 11 of their numbers, but torpedo boats managed to set two fuel-loaded transports on fire, and one of them even managed to escape for now. Air attacks were not terribly successful. Several CVEs were damaged, but none fatally.



Overall, the campaign in Marhalls/Gilbers cost IJN 7 subs and several large auxilaries so far, with several more subs being at risk of sinking, plus large, but acceptable air losses. Allies have lost 3 CVEs certainly or almost certainly, plus 1 possibly, about 6 DDs, and several escorts, landing craft and transports. I don't think I'll be able to score any more good blows in this area. For 1944 and limited forces that were allocated to the area (due to not expecting real Allied activity here initally, and then being busy shipping everything to Burma) this is not bad... but I disappointed at my inability to delay the Allies more.

Ground forces at Mili, by the way, did well initially:

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Ground combat at Mili (136,121)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 15363 troops, 279 guns, 589 vehicles, Assault Value = 958
Defending force 14507 troops, 189 guns, 57 vehicles, Assault Value = 346
Allied adjusted assault: 143
Japanese adjusted defense: 692
Allied assault odds: 1 to 4 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
857 casualties reported
Squads: 44 destroyed, 94 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 26 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 29 disabled
Guns lost 64 (15 destroyed, 49 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (3 destroyed, 1 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
6059 casualties reported
Squads: 172 destroyed, 273 disabled
Non Combat: 89 destroyed, 172 disabled
Engineers: 16 destroyed, 56 disabled
Guns lost 89 (18 destroyed, 71 disabled)
Vehicles lost 333 (23 destroyed, 310 disabled)

Assaulting units:
194th Tank Battalion
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
24th Infantry Div /2
192nd Tank Battalion
4th USMC Tank Battalion
3rd Marine Div /9
110th USA Base Force /1
222nd USN Base Force /2
4th USA Def Bn /1
810th EAB /1
12th Marine Def Bn /1

Defending units:
67th Naval Guard Unit
24th Infantry Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
Mili Naval Fortress
38th JNAF AF Unit
102nd Machine Canno AA Battalion
80th JAAF AF Bn
9th Air Fleet
Majuro Base Force
24th JNAF AF Unit
30th Field AA Machinecannon Company
4th Naval Const Bn /1

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Ground combat at Mili (136,121)
Allied Shock attack
Attacking force 15335 troops, 470 guns, 202 vehicles, Assault Value = 475
Defending force 13399 troops, 184 guns, 54 vehicles, Assault Value = 257
Allied adjusted assault: 26
Japanese adjusted defense: 114
Allied assault odds: 1 to 4 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1061 casualties reported
Squads: 13 destroyed, 88 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Guns lost 21 (1 destroyed, 20 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3355 casualties reported
Squads: 109 destroyed, 128 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 33 disabled
Engineers: 24 destroyed, 8 disabled
Guns lost 106 (1 destroyed, 105 disabled)


I suspect the initival size of the US landing force was beyond Mili's limit of 30k.

But then Allies finally got their tanks ashore ans starting grinding down the garrizon:

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Ground combat at Mili (136,121)
Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 2798 troops, 70 guns, 256 vehicles, Assault Value = 260
Defending force 12369 troops, 181 guns, 54 vehicles, Assault Value = 180
Allied adjusted assault: 46
Japanese adjusted defense: 328
Allied assault odds: 1 to 7 (fort level 6)

Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), disruption(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
756 casualties reported
Squads: 95 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 18 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 15 (15 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 17 (2 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Assaulting units:
24th Infantry Division
194th Tank Battalion
1st USMC Amphb Tank Battalion
192nd Tank Battalion
3rd Marine Division
4th USMC Tank Battalion
4th USA Defense Battalion
12th Marine Defense Battalion
222nd USN Base Force
810th Engineer Aviation Battalion
B Det USN Port Svc
110th USA Base Force /1

Defending units:
24th Infantry Regiment
67th Naval Guard Unit
16th Infantry Regiment
Mili Naval Fortress
Majuro Base Force
9th Air Fleet
38th JNAF AF Unit
30th Field AA Machinecannon Company
102nd Machine Canno AA Battalion
24th JNAF AF Unit
80th JAAF AF Bn

A shameful display (or shamefur dispray, as we're talking about the Japanese)... Even with the best AT weapons available my forces are almost completely helpless. It seems only heavy artillery or medium flak guns are at all effective against Allied armor. Mili shall fall, and so shall outlying islands with their weak garrizons and low supply levels. Majuro already has been taken by a paradrop.