Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[hkbhsi]

If you don't have an HQ in range it is not only the supply level which is preventing you from upgrading your planes; you need a level 7 airfield and >20k supply.

Great AAR by the way.

[JohnDillworth]

India at Sea: Brad has been reading my AAR! After yesterday's discussion here about his strategy around Karachi, a CL/DD force shows up and sinks two KV and three ML on ASW duty. Right now, I only have a handful of CA/CL/DD in the Aden/Abadan area. I'm going to move BB Ramilles, CA Devonshire, two CL, and four DD up there. Meanwhile, I'm thinking about retiring my carriers to Capetown to upgrade additional aircraft squadrons (they won't upgrade at Mombasa, for some reason, even though it's a level five port - or perhaps because it's only level five?).

Sounds like scouts. If he found stuff he would definitely be back. He will probably be back anyway. He knows he has to time this right for a big payoff. I'd say move some capital ships into the area. Ships is the one area where you can win a battle of attrition. Actually, these raids might be tough for him as he has to have a few task forces. By sinking some of your junk, he has to go back to a base and reload torpedoes each time. Your task forces have a more gun based doctrine and you can reload at Bombay (I assume, not near a game right now). Still, he gets some more DD's in scenerio 2, this is a good gamble for him.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, Brad has to commit ships to shut down Karachi (and the wonder is that he didn't do so long before). He'll expect me to counter with a more powerful CA force, so he'll send something bigger next time, I would think. I'm very fortunate that nearly all my reinforcements are already ashore. I don't really want to commit my carriers up that way. I will only do so if a blockade of Karachi becomes a critical threat to India's survival by choking off supplies. Right now, though, I'm good on supplies for a long time.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I vary B-17 height from 10k to 20k. They fly unescorted. Brad has employed Nicks against them (and some Zeroes) with some success. Overall, the Forts haven't been flying in big enough numbers to register a major impact or to take large losses.

I pretty much have just set them all to bomb at 7,000 feet. Nothing seems to hurt them much and the results at 7k make it worth it.

[Canoerebel]

8/26/42

Reading the Tea Leaves: My opponent is making it very difficult for me to figure out what is going on. He orchestrates false, misleading, or confusing SigInt that doesn't fit together in a way that allows me to know exactly what's happening. Some examples:

10th Tanks: For months, I've been getting reports that 6/10th Tanks is aboard xxx Maru heading for Calcutta. This has been going on so long that I'm certain 10th Tank is aboard a bunch of ships steaming in circles in the Bay of Bengal.

The Engineers are Coming!: Weeks ago I reported SigInt that an engineer unit was aboard a Maru bound for the key base across the bight from Surat, India. Nothing ever came of that, so either Brad recalled a real invasion (unlikely) or this was deception (likely).

Dancing Division Part One: Months ago, I received SigInt that 2nd Division, which had been at Diamond Harbor, was aboard a Maru bound for Truk. This suggested that Brad wasn't going to come full bore in India, else why would he weaken his forces? Since that report, I haven't seen hide nor hair of 2nd Divsion. It could be at Truk or aboard an assault TF at Colombo.

Dancing Divisions Part Two: Yesterday, I noted that the whereabouts of three divisions previously known to be in India was unknown - 2nd, 18th, and 21st. Today, I received SigInt that 21st Division is prepping for Suva. As with 2nd Division, it makes no sense for Brad to strip this unit from India if he really wants to defeat the Allies there. At the same time, it really doesn't make sense to send it to Suva - in the first place, he's already weakened his SoPac garrisons like Noumea. In the second, if he's hunting VP, it would be alot easier to keep 21st in India to go after Bombay or Ambadebad or Delhi.

On the Other Hand: Brad doesn't show any signs of backing down in India. He has Bombay under siege and a stout army to the north. He's actively building up airfields throughout India, even in places remote from Bombay.

Conclusion: I can use good evidence to support reasonable inferences ranging from Brad is coming for India full bore to Brad is going to stand down in India and try to glean easier pickings elsewhere.

Default Position: Since India poses the gravest threat, the Allies have played like that was the chief target since early March. IE, even during periods of maximum uncertainty, I've still sent everything possible to India. As for the Pacific bases, all of them are garrisoned adequately now. If Brad wants them, he'll have to come in a serious way and he'll take some losses.

As for August 26, 1942: The big Allied fighter ambush over Bombay didn't turn out very well. The Japanese scored a 2:1 victory. No sign of IJN raiders around Karachi. The second TF carrying 27th Division exits the Abadan channel tomorrow.

[Capt. Harlock]

Your task forces have a more gun based doctrine and you can reload at Bombay (I assume, not near a game right now).

Bombay is well within range of Japanese airpower. There are Allied fighters there, but Q-Ball appears to be well able to blast through them when he wants to.

[Canoerebel]

Bombay is a level six port; Karachi is level seven. The latter isn't within range of IJ LBA, so it is open for business unless and until the IJN shuts it down.

I hope I don't ever have to try to force supply into Bombay by sea. I'm probably better served doing so via land campaign.

[Canoerebel]

8/27/42 and 8/28/42

Reinforcements: Important turn for reinforcements. First, a large TF carrying aircraft finished the risky transit of the "Socatra Straight." Brad had a surface combat TF in the area, so I was taking a chance here. Second, the second of three TF carrying elements of 27th Division safely arrived at Karachi. 384 AV are now ashore, with the balance to arrive in about four days. This division is late arriving - my estimates three months ago were an ETA of late July. However, I also thought it highly likely that I would have to use my carriers as escorts. The fact that I didn't, and that the whereabouts of the CVs remain a closely guarded secret, is a plus.

Sub Wars: I-162 near Karachi picked off two supply xAK over these two days.

India in the Air: Allied fighters performed creditably over Bombay, with IJ losses over these days slightly higher than Allied.

India on the Ground: I get the feeling that Brad may be about ready to move forward in India - perhaps west from Allahabad/Benares and north from Poona/Bombay. But that's a vague feeling that might not amount to anything. The Allies only have 275 AV at Cawnpore, which is my eastern flank, so I might end up sending reinforcements that way. I don't want to reveal the Marine units and 27th Division until a propitious moment, but I'm not sure I'll have that luxury.

The Pacific: Allied troops are prepping for Norfolk Island, Noumea, Wake, Marcus, and even Iwo Jima. I've sent some supply TFs to NoPac, where they will steam back and forth to the forward Aleutians in a Nathan Bedford Forest ruse to create the appearance of a threat. The October date for the invasions of Wake and Marcus, to be preceded by the invasion of Norfolk, and to be followed by the invasion of Noumea, remain on schedule.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

8/26/42

Reading the Tea Leaves: My opponent is making it very difficult for me to figure out what is going on. He orchestrates false, misleading, or confusing SigInt that doesn't fit together in a way that allows me to know exactly what's happening. Some examples:

10th Tanks: For months, I've been getting reports that 6/10th Tanks is aboard xxx Maru heading for Calcutta. This has been going on so long that I'm certain 10th Tank is aboard a bunch of ships steaming in circles in the Bay of Bengal.

The Engineers are Coming!: Weeks ago I reported SigInt that an engineer unit was aboard a Maru bound for the key base across the bight from Surat, India. Nothing ever came of that, so either Brad recalled a real invasion (unlikely) or this was deception (likely).

Dancing Division Part One: Months ago, I received SigInt that 2nd Division, which had been at Diamond Harbor, was aboard a Maru bound for Truk. This suggested that Brad wasn't going to come full bore in India, else why would he weaken his forces? Since that report, I haven't seen hide nor hair of 2nd Divsion. It could be at Truk or aboard an assault TF at Colombo.

Dancing Divisions Part Two: Yesterday, I noted that the whereabouts of three divisions previously known to be in India was unknown - 2nd, 18th, and 21st. Today, I received SigInt that 21st Division is prepping for Suva. As with 2nd Division, it makes no sense for Brad to strip this unit from India if he really wants to defeat the Allies there. At the same time, it really doesn't make sense to send it to Suva - in the first place, he's already weakened his SoPac garrisons like Noumea. In the second, if he's hunting VP, it would be alot easier to keep 21st in India to go after Bombay or Ambadebad or Delhi.

On the Other Hand: Brad doesn't show any signs of backing down in India. He has Bombay under siege and a stout army to the north. He's actively building up airfields throughout India, even in places remote from Bombay.

Conclusion: I can use good evidence to support reasonable inferences ranging from Brad is coming for India full bore to Brad is going to stand down in India and try to glean easier pickings elsewhere.

Default Position: Since India poses the gravest threat, the Allies have played like that was the chief target since early March. IE, even during periods of maximum uncertainty, I've still sent everything possible to India. As for the Pacific bases, all of them are garrisoned adequately now. If Brad wants them, he'll have to come in a serious way and he'll take some losses.

As for August 26, 1942: The big Allied fighter ambush over Bombay didn't turn out very well. The Japanese scored a 2:1 victory. No sign of IJN raiders around Karachi. The second TF carrying 27th Division exits the Abadan channel tomorrow.

It sounds like you're indecisive. Or maybe not. I think. [&:]

[Canoerebel]

I know what you mean. I truly don't know what Brad's intentions are, which means I sound indecisive. Yet I've played all along as though he was coming full bore for India, which means I've been decisive in my actions. So I've been indecisevly decisive.

[Canoerebel]

8/29/42 and 8/30/42
 
Little things....
 
India Reinforcements:  An Indian armored unit (120 AV) arrived...but in Karachi rather than, as I had anticipated, in Aden.  This is good, because it saves me the risk of the trip to Karachi. Also, the unit is 100% prepped for Karachi, which will give me some peace of mind when the time comes to move 27th Division out of the base.
 
27th Division:  The transport TFs carrying the balance of the division exited the Abadan channel.  A DD escort did battle with I-162 and successfully protected the transports.  When these troops arrive, 27th Division will move forward and I will make decisions about how to employ this unit and the Marine units.
 
Socatra Channel:  Yesterday, an aircraft-toting TF set to transit the narrow Socatra Channel encountered Brad's pesky CL/DD force and retired several hexes.  The BB Ramilles group had just exited the Mombasa Channel on it's way to Aden.  Neat idea:  set the transport TF to follow the Ramilles TF, but trail by one hex.  In concept, this should be easy to do and the two TFs easily should have cleared the channel today.  But the Ramilles TF suddenly came to a screeching halt, apparently hijinx resulting from the "follow" command.  Now it will take at least another day for the two TFs to clear the area.  If the KB should pick this time to show up, I'd lose a BB and some other important ships.  On such small things the fates of men and nations can turn (but hopefully my luck will hold).
 
Bombay:  Allied fighters held their own over these two days.  Light casualties for both sides.

[Canoerebel]

8/31/42
 
Socatra Channel:  I-166 put two TT into CL Enterprise, part of the combat TF escorting a transport TF carrying aircraft to Aden.  Enterprise is badly wounded (74 FLT).  She'll try to retire to Mombasa.  The remaining ships safely escaped into the Aden Channel.
 
Karachi:  Subs picked off two supply xAK near Karachi, but the TF carrying the balance of 27th Division arrived and began unloading.
 
India:  Brad seems intent on a long siege of Bombay rather than moving quickly.  He's left four divisions there, with several more posted on various roads to the north.  I am scanning the map to develop a plan to ultimately relieve Bombay, whether that's by a direct move in that direction or an effort to flank well to the east.  Many more American aircraft squadrons are on the way to India (most of these are now at Aden or between Aden and Abadan).  Heavy bombers will help apply pressure on the IJA units north of Bombay.

[Canoerebel]

9/1/42 and 9/2/42

India at Sea: A sharp engagement near Karachi as the IJN CL/DD force tangles with the now-empty transport TF that had safely carried the last 27th Division elments to Karachi. The small escort - a DMS and DD Tjerk Hiddes (spelling?) got in some licks, sinking one DD, damaging two more, and damaging CL Isuzu. Both Allied escorts went under as did two xAK, one AK, and two AP (two of these had been damaged in the engagement and were then sunk by subs). The Japanese ships were damaged enough that Allied LBA from Karachi got a crack at them, scoring one TT and three bombs vs. the CL, leaving it "heavy fires/heavy damage" (which usually means it's sunk). This was the tail end of months of critical troop convoys destined for Karachi. While this engagement stung both sides - more the Allies - Allied convoy losses overall were unexpectedly light.

India in the Air: Three B-17 squadrons roughed up the airfield at Poona. Overall, the Japanese suffered a 10:1 defeat on the 2nd, losing 30 aircraft to just three for the Allies.

India on the Ground: 27th Division departed Karachi bound for Ahmadebad. I don't think Brad has specific knowledge about American reinforcements in India. Over the months we have been playing, I am sure he has conjectured whether I would do this. Then, when he sees empty APs like Hunter Liggett sunk off Karachi, it probably tickles his imagination.

NoPac: TFs carrying supplies are arriving at forward island bases. After they unload, I will steam them in various circles to give the appearance of increased activity. But things seem quiet.

CenPac: All Marcus and Wake troops are at Pearl Harbor (with the exception of one CD at Pago Pago). These units are prepped around 30%. We still looking at an invasion in October (probably middle of the month). I just began prepping some of the Hawaii garrison for bases like Tarawa, Ocean Island, Nauru, and Tabituea.

SoPac: Active recon of Brad's New Caledonia and New Hebrides bases to give the impression of threat (the Allies reconned Baker Island for months before invading. At the time, that was the only Allied recon in the Pacific).

Strategic: I think the Allies will find Marcus lightly garrisoned given SigInt. Wake should also be relatively lightly garrisoned since exceeding the limit is a huge supply drain. I suspect Brad will rely more on counterinvasion to address any problems that arise in this area. It will be difficult for the Allies to hold such advance bases against counterattack, but I'm hoping that while Brad is working up something to address Marcus and/or Wake, the Allies can mount a move on Tarawa/Tabituea in CenPac, and against Noumea in SoPac. I may be shifting the Allied carriers to SoPac in the next month to lend a hand, but that's not definate yet.

[Canoerebel]

Plan for Upcoming Allied Invasions:
 
I. Strategic Objective:  To create the appearance of a major threat in CenPac by seizing Marcus Island and Wake Island by amphibious assault.  This, combined with the continued Allied build up in the Aleutians, should deceive Brad by enhancing the perception that the Allies are focused on a CenPac/NoPac vector of attack heading into 1943, thus reducing his concern about Sumatra.
 
II. Operational Objective:  Two-plus regiments, tanks, artillery, and CD forces will invade Wake and Marcus in mid October utilizing only two CVE for escort purposes.  The Allies will hold empty transports in reserve to facilitate extraction of troops following the invasions in order to leave behind well-supplied defenses within the garrison limits.  These garrisons to consist of a CD unit each and about one infantry regiment each.
 
III.  Deception Planning:  In an effort to divert Brad's attention, the Allies have been doing some obvious things in NoPac, CenPac, and SoPac.  Over time, these activities will increase signficantly and will culminate in an invasion of Noumea after Wake and Marcus.  Deception plans:
 
     A.  Gilberts:  Since the Allied invasion of Baker Island several months ago, Brad has been carefully monitoring shipping in this region, including use of a Glen-equipped sub to monitor traffic at Christmas Island.  The Allies will increase shipping around Christmas, eventually moving multiple feint TFs west past Baker just before the Wake/Marcus operations.
 
     B.  NoPac:  The Allies have built up the Aleutians.  Beginning in about two weeks, three transport TFs plus a small combat TF anchored by a slow BB will steam in circles, trying to get noticed without being too obvious.  This activity will culminate in a feint towards the Kuriles to coincdie with the Wake/Marcus operations.
 
     C.  SoPac:  All Allied reconnaissance in the Pacific post-Baker Island has been in the region of New Caledonia and the New Hebrides.  In about three weeks, the Allies will invade lightly garrisoned Norfolk Island.  Just prior to the Wake/Marcus operations, B-17s from Suva and Nadi will hit Noumea and Luganville.  At the same time, a feint invasion TF will approach Noumea.  This mock force will withdraw as the Marcus/Wake TFs go in, as though it was all a feint, but within a week the Allies will return with a real invasion force bound for Noumea.  (This operation may be covered by the Allied carriers.)
 
IV.  Post-Invasion:  The Allies expect the Japanese to counterinvade Marcus and/or Wake Island.  It will be hard to defend these outposts.  The Allies may or may not utilize fleet carriers during the winter months to act as a deterrent.  It is expected that it will take at least a few weeks for the Japanese to put together counterinvasions.  The Allies have troops prepping for Tarawa, Nauru, Ocean Island, and Tabituea, and will try to spring moves on these islands if an when the Japanese are tied up elsewhere.
 
V.  Sumatra:  As we near March 1943, the Allies will ratchet up activity in the Aleutians and western CenPac as though a spring invasion of the Kuriles is imminent.  If things have gone well with Marcus and Wake, and if the Allied carriers have been employyed or otherwise seen in CenPac, this should sector should draw Brad's full attention.  But while this massive feint is directed towards the Kuriles, the real invasion will take place elsewhere (Sumatra is the plan, but if that isn't advisable for some reason then some othe important locale).  Three American divisions plus another division equivalent are currently prepping in Oz (most are nearing 100% now).  I plan to employ at least seven divisions.

[Canoerebel]

9/3/42

Bombay: I'm watching Bombay's supply level drop pretty steadily - from 66k to 49k in about eight days (and it was 100k about a month or so ago). I turned off fort building a few weeks ago (at 7.5). Japanese bombing hasn't been particularly heavy or effective, so I'm a bit surprised at the rate of decline. The Allies will need to reopen the road eventually, though it's by no means critical in the near term. Another Indian armored unit (122 AV) arrives in a few days, followed by an Indian division (350 AV) in less than a month. Also, the Allies have alot of USAAF sqadrons set to arrive within the next ten days. Bombay is a level 9 airfield, Ahmadebad is level 8 (it won't reach nine for weeks), and Karachi is a level 7 or 8. Most of the other airfields ar pretty small, though I'm building at Cawnpore, Surat, and Indore.

Clausewitz: I'm not student of this military strategist, but I believe he said something about an army on the offensive taking too long to knock out the enemy, thus permitting the enemy to adjust and eventually counterattack. I think that's what's going to happen in India, though I'm not distcounting Brad. He's a good strategist and an excellent player, but I think this is taking too long. He landed at Ceylon on 3/7/42 and rolled up nearly everything he has today within three months, but the past three months have been awfully quiet, while Allied forces have been seriously strengthened by reinforcements (having the US Army and Marines present is a relief).

Norfolk Island: The Allies just paid to buy an Oz brigade (80 AV). I also have an Oz machine gun battalion (20 or 30 AV), and the Kiwi N Force Detachment (40 AV). The defenses are two units totaling just 1000 troops, so I don't anticipate much opposition. My guys are currently prepped just 20%, so by the time this operation gets underway prep will be just 40% or so. I think that's okay. Also, the Allies have engineers and base force (18) at Lord Howe Island, which is a level three airfield. That will permit bombing by B-17s at fairly close range. D-Day - perhaps three weeks.

[JohnDillworth]

utilizing only two CVE for escort purposes

You surely must be counting on complete surprise to leave precious troops and transports so lightly guarded. If either of these islands has an Air HQ I would count on Netties being shuttled in as soon as your TF's are spotted. Hopefully you will provide a reasonable surface escort at least. I guess if this is a diversion you can stand to loose these troops.
my 2 cents

[Canoerebel]

Marcus is a level 1 airfield, so it can't base offensive missions, right?

I plan to use the two CVEs at Wake Island - they can carry a total of 40 fighters. Wake is an atoll and a level three airfield, so that's a concern. But Brad can't have a heckuva lot there given the garrison limit.

Yes, I'm counting on surprise, and yes, these forces are fairly expendable.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/3/42

Norfolk Island: The Allies just paid to buy an Oz brigade (80 AV). I also have an Oz machine gun battalion (20 or 30 AV), and the Kiwi N Force Detachment (40 AV). The defenses are two units totaling just 1000 troops, so I don't anticipate much opposition. My guys are currently prepped just 20%, so by the time this operation gets underway prep will be just 40% or so. I think that's okay. Also, the Allies have engineers and base force (18) at Lord Howe Island, which is a level three airfield. That will permit bombing by B-17s at fairly close range. D-Day - perhaps three weeks.

A few notes: With such low prep, upon landing they will take a lot of disruption, made worse by the lack of real attack landing ships. Most likely one unit will take the brunt of the casualties on the first day and possibly be combat ineffective. Sitting quiet will recover the fatigue, which will make all the difference when they do attack. If you over-stack the island, supplies will disappear more quickly. Very quickly if you are way over, more quickly than you can land supplies so you will not be able to stockpile. The good news is that harry's experience at Kwajalein showed that combat takes place before the supply penalty is applied, meaning that whatever you land during the turn is available for combat. I do not know when disruption is reduced, so I do not know if landed supplies are available for that before the penalty.

With the forces you outlined I doubt you'll be much over on stacking so you should be OK on that score.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Marcus is a level 1 airfield, so it can't base offensive missions, right?

Right. CAP (at a diminished level) is all.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Marcus is a level 1 airfield, so it can't base offensive missions, right?

I plan to use the two CVEs at Wake Island - they can carry a total of 40 fighters. Wake is an atoll and a level three airfield, so that's a concern. But Brad can't have a heckuva lot there given the garrison limit.

Yes, I'm counting on surprise, and yes, these forces are fairly expendable.

I have to agree with John here. Do you have any idea what is on Wake? It wouldn't take a lot to take out the CVEs. Then the rest of your ships are defenseless. Also, all Brad would really need is a CVL or two to put a real hurting on you.

Edit: Also, if a Japanese sub got lucky, well, you can figure out the rest.....