Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Canoerebel]

Yes and no about Wake. I know that Brad cannot have more than about 6,500 troops on Wake - any more and the supply situation becomes absolutely impossible.

Given a garrison limit of 6k, he probably has a base force, an engineer unit, and an SNLF or Naval Guard unit.

A major part of my plan is the elaborate deception activities that have been part of the game since early on. But I get your point. I will re-evaluate. I could possibly reconfigure Allied activity in CenPac to await arrival of the Allied carriers - assuming I send then to the Pacific, which I'm currently mulling over.

[JohnDillworth]

Yes and no about Wake. I know that Brad cannot have more than about 6,500 troops on Wake - any more and the supply situation becomes absolutely impossible.

Given a garrison limit of 6k, he probably has a base force, an engineer unit, and an SNLF or Naval Guard unit.

A major part of my plan is the elaborate deception activities that have been part of the game since early on. But I get your point. I will re-evaluate. I could possibly reconfigure Allied activity in CenPac to await arrival of the Allied carriers - assuming I send then to the Pacific, which I'm currently mulling over.

If you don't want to show your carriers, keep them in reserve near Midway. If the mini KB is out and about or a surface combat task force you might pick up some points on the cheap. Worst case he sees your carriers and the deception works even better.

[princep01]

It's finally getting close to time to strike back at the Japanese. Your opponent has been strangely quiet in India and elsewhere of late based on the reports you provide (I do not visit his AAR). He might be timing his Big Grasp for the 4-1 Brass Ring for later in the year to thwart a timely response. Good luck with your offensive plans. The next three-four months should be most interesting. Your back has been against the final wall for awhile now, but you have carefully gathered/preserved your forces for a telling blow(s). Make them count, commander.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/3/42

Bombay: I'm watching Bombay's supply level drop pretty steadily - from 66k to 49k in about eight days (and it was 100k about a month or so ago). I turned off fort building a few weeks ago (at 7.5). Japanese bombing hasn't been particularly heavy or effective, so I'm a bit surprised at the rate of decline. The Allies will need to reopen the road eventually, though it's by no means critical in the near term. Another Indian armored unit (122 AV) arrives in a few days, followed by an Indian division (350 AV) in less than a month. Also, the Allies have alot of USAAF sqadrons set to arrive within the next ten days. Bombay is a level 9 airfield, Ahmadebad is level 8 (it won't reach nine for weeks), and Karachi is a level 7 or 8. Most of the other airfields ar pretty small, though I'm building at Cawnpore, Surat, and Indore.

Clausewitz: I'm not student of this military strategist, but I believe he said something about an army on the offensive taking too long to knock out the enemy, thus permitting the enemy to adjust and eventually counterattack. I think that's what's going to happen in India, though I'm not distcounting Brad. He's a good strategist and an excellent player, but I think this is taking too long. He landed at Ceylon on 3/7/42 and rolled up nearly everything he has today within three months, but the past three months have been awfully quiet, while Allied forces have been seriously strengthened by reinforcements (having the US Army and Marines present is a relief).

Norfolk Island: The Allies just paid to buy an Oz brigade (80 AV). I also have an Oz machine gun battalion (20 or 30 AV), and the Kiwi N Force Detachment (40 AV). The defenses are two units totaling just 1000 troops, so I don't anticipate much opposition. My guys are currently prepped just 20%, so by the time this operation gets underway prep will be just 40% or so. I think that's okay. Also, the Allies have engineers and base force (18) at Lord Howe Island, which is a level three airfield. That will permit bombing by B-17s at fairly close range. D-Day - perhaps three weeks.

How many AA units do you have in Bombay? I had the same experience at Lunga where my units were under steady air attack. I am beginning to suspect that AA units firing use up an inordinate amount of supply. Bug perhaps?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/3/42

Norfolk Island: The Allies just paid to buy an Oz brigade (80 AV). I also have an Oz machine gun battalion (20 or 30 AV), and the Kiwi N Force Detachment (40 AV). The defenses are two units totaling just 1000 troops, so I don't anticipate much opposition. My guys are currently prepped just 20%, so by the time this operation gets underway prep will be just 40% or so. I think that's okay. Also, the Allies have engineers and base force (18) at Lord Howe Island, which is a level three airfield. That will permit bombing by B-17s at fairly close range. D-Day - perhaps three weeks.

A few notes: With such low prep, upon landing they will take a lot of disruption, made worse by the lack of real attack landing ships. Most likely one unit will take the brunt of the casualties on the first day and possibly be combat ineffective. Sitting quiet will recover the fatigue, which will make all the difference when they do attack. If you over-stack the island, supplies will disappear more quickly. Very quickly if you are way over, more quickly than you can land supplies so you will not be able to stockpile. The good news is that harry's experience at Kwajalein showed that combat takes place before the supply penalty is applied, meaning that whatever you land during the turn is available for combat. I do not know when disruption is reduced, so I do not know if landed supplies are available for that before the penalty.

With the forces you outlined I doubt you'll be much over on stacking so you should be OK on that score.

A question here. I know that low prepped units will take a big hit. I accidently sent the wrong division to sieze an unoccupied Lunga and suffered about 50% casualties due to zero prep (kids, don't try this at home). What about low-prepped follow up troops landed at a contested but enemy controlled base. Will they suffer the same disruptions as the unit that originally landed or will they land in better shape? I am just getting into the offensive stage of my campaign and am unsure about this.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: witpqs

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/3/42

Norfolk Island: The Allies just paid to buy an Oz brigade (80 AV). I also have an Oz machine gun battalion (20 or 30 AV), and the Kiwi N Force Detachment (40 AV). The defenses are two units totaling just 1000 troops, so I don't anticipate much opposition. My guys are currently prepped just 20%, so by the time this operation gets underway prep will be just 40% or so. I think that's okay. Also, the Allies have engineers and base force (18) at Lord Howe Island, which is a level three airfield. That will permit bombing by B-17s at fairly close range. D-Day - perhaps three weeks.

A few notes: With such low prep, upon landing they will take a lot of disruption, made worse by the lack of real attack landing ships. Most likely one unit will take the brunt of the casualties on the first day and possibly be combat ineffective. Sitting quiet will recover the fatigue, which will make all the difference when they do attack. If you over-stack the island, supplies will disappear more quickly. Very quickly if you are way over, more quickly than you can land supplies so you will not be able to stockpile. The good news is that harry's experience at Kwajalein showed that combat takes place before the supply penalty is applied, meaning that whatever you land during the turn is available for combat. I do not know when disruption is reduced, so I do not know if landed supplies are available for that before the penalty.

With the forces you outlined I doubt you'll be much over on stacking so you should be OK on that score.

A question here. I know that low prepped units will take a big hit. I accidently sent the wrong division to sieze an unoccupied Lunga and suffered about 50% casualties due to zero prep (kids, don't try this at home). What about low-prepped follow up troops landed at a contested but enemy controlled base. Will they suffer the same disruptions as the unit that originally landed or will they land in better shape? I am just getting into the offensive stage of my campaign and am unsure about this.

As far as I know they will suffer the same. To the best of my knowledge the game engine does not include the concept of a beachhead.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/3/42

Bombay: I'm watching Bombay's supply level drop pretty steadily - from 66k to 49k in about eight days (and it was 100k about a month or so ago). I turned off fort building a few weeks ago (at 7.5). Japanese bombing hasn't been particularly heavy or effective, so I'm a bit surprised at the rate of decline. The Allies will need to reopen the road eventually, though it's by no means critical in the near term. Another Indian armored unit (122 AV) arrives in a few days, followed by an Indian division (350 AV) in less than a month. Also, the Allies have alot of USAAF sqadrons set to arrive within the next ten days. Bombay is a level 9 airfield, Ahmadebad is level 8 (it won't reach nine for weeks), and Karachi is a level 7 or 8. Most of the other airfields ar pretty small, though I'm building at Cawnpore, Surat, and Indore.

Clausewitz: I'm not student of this military strategist, but I believe he said something about an army on the offensive taking too long to knock out the enemy, thus permitting the enemy to adjust and eventually counterattack. I think that's what's going to happen in India, though I'm not distcounting Brad. He's a good strategist and an excellent player, but I think this is taking too long. He landed at Ceylon on 3/7/42 and rolled up nearly everything he has today within three months, but the past three months have been awfully quiet, while Allied forces have been seriously strengthened by reinforcements (having the US Army and Marines present is a relief).

Norfolk Island: The Allies just paid to buy an Oz brigade (80 AV). I also have an Oz machine gun battalion (20 or 30 AV), and the Kiwi N Force Detachment (40 AV). The defenses are two units totaling just 1000 troops, so I don't anticipate much opposition. My guys are currently prepped just 20%, so by the time this operation gets underway prep will be just 40% or so. I think that's okay. Also, the Allies have engineers and base force (18) at Lord Howe Island, which is a level three airfield. That will permit bombing by B-17s at fairly close range. D-Day - perhaps three weeks.

How many AA units do you have in Bombay? I had the same experience at Lunga where my units were under steady air attack. I am beginning to suspect that AA units firing use up an inordinate amount of supply. Bug perhaps?

I think flying a ****-load of fighters and / or bombers out of the hex on a daily basis is a more likely expenditure of supply in quantity than AAA fire, don't you?

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, for the past four months, with the exception of three days, I've based six recon aircraft and two small P-38 squadrons at Bombay. On the other three days, I loaded up the airfield with perhaps 175 fighters (and there have been a few other days where I've moved in a few fighter squadrons in ineffective efforts to wage war). No bombers have been based at Bombay for a long, long time, so I don't believe my aircraft are draining supplies. I think it's more likely that Japanese bomber hits, though not that huge, are my problem. On the few days Brad has stood down his bombers, supply barely declined.

crsutton - the low-prepped ground units that follow the initial landings will still suffer tremendous disruption.

P.S. I'm not concerned about the upcoming Norfolk Island invasion. Even with my troops prepped around 40-50%, they should still run roughshod over the 1,000 Japanese troops holding the island.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Chickenboy, for the past four months, with the exception of three days, I've based six recon aircraft and two small P-38 squadrons at Bombay. On the other three days, I loaded up the airfield with perhaps 175 fighters (and there have been a few other days where I've moved in a few fighter squadrons in ineffective efforts to wage war). No bombers have been based at Bombay for a long, long time, so I don't believe my aircraft are draining supplies. I think it's more likely that Japanese bomber hits, though not that huge, are my problem. On the few days Brad has stood down his bombers, supply barely declined.

crsutton - the low-prepped ground units that follow the initial landings will still suffer tremendous disruption.

P.S. I'm not concerned about the upcoming Norfolk Island invasion. Even with my troops prepped around 40-50%, they should still run roughshod over the 1,000 Japanese troops holding the island.

One supply hit a day will lead to over 5% loss a week. So the bomber attacks alone could be leading to the supply issues at Bombay.

The more I read this narrative the more I begin to wonder if Q-Balls intentions in India may be to lure you into a counteroffensive before you are truly ready. Once your forces are fully engaged, he could easily run up your flank with the forces at his disposal. My advice is to not take the bait. Let the battle come to you. Everyday your forces grow stronger. Do not let him sucker you into overexposing yourself. You need to be preapred in case Brad does attempt a Strategic Banzai charge late in the year in hopes of getting Autovictory. As long as you hold the Deepening Wall and the Keep, you can let Q-Ball's forces break upon them like the sea upon the rocks.

[paullus99]

With the autovictory in play, you could truly - "lose the war in an afternoon." Your current "Fabian" policy of refusing battle on the enemy's terms must be incredibly frustrating to your opponent - it doesn't make sense to offer up free victory points on a silver platter to him either.

He either has to attack something that you can't lose or dig in now & wait for your counteroffensive - and hope to bleed you long enough & hold out long enough to pull out some margin on victory at the end of the day.

Don't feel like you have to rush into anything - but I do agree with your plan to nibble around the edges, because it does give him something else to thing about, rather than just planning his own operations.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/3/42

Bombay: I'm watching Bombay's supply level drop pretty steadily - from 66k to 49k in about eight days (and it was 100k about a month or so ago). I turned off fort building a few weeks ago (at 7.5). Japanese bombing hasn't been particularly heavy or effective, so I'm a bit surprised at the rate of decline. The Allies will need to reopen the road eventually, though it's by no means critical in the near term. Another Indian armored unit (122 AV) arrives in a few days, followed by an Indian division (350 AV) in less than a month. Also, the Allies have alot of USAAF sqadrons set to arrive within the next ten days. Bombay is a level 9 airfield, Ahmadebad is level 8 (it won't reach nine for weeks), and Karachi is a level 7 or 8. Most of the other airfields ar pretty small, though I'm building at Cawnpore, Surat, and Indore.

Clausewitz: I'm not student of this military strategist, but I believe he said something about an army on the offensive taking too long to knock out the enemy, thus permitting the enemy to adjust and eventually counterattack. I think that's what's going to happen in India, though I'm not distcounting Brad. He's a good strategist and an excellent player, but I think this is taking too long. He landed at Ceylon on 3/7/42 and rolled up nearly everything he has today within three months, but the past three months have been awfully quiet, while Allied forces have been seriously strengthened by reinforcements (having the US Army and Marines present is a relief).

Norfolk Island: The Allies just paid to buy an Oz brigade (80 AV). I also have an Oz machine gun battalion (20 or 30 AV), and the Kiwi N Force Detachment (40 AV). The defenses are two units totaling just 1000 troops, so I don't anticipate much opposition. My guys are currently prepped just 20%, so by the time this operation gets underway prep will be just 40% or so. I think that's okay. Also, the Allies have engineers and base force (18) at Lord Howe Island, which is a level three airfield. That will permit bombing by B-17s at fairly close range. D-Day - perhaps three weeks.

How many AA units do you have in Bombay? I had the same experience at Lunga where my units were under steady air attack. I am beginning to suspect that AA units firing use up an inordinate amount of supply. Bug perhaps?

I think flying a ****-load of fighters and / or bombers out of the hex on a daily basis is a more likely expenditure of supply in quantity than AAA fire, don't you?

Well, I had no fighters based at Lunga but still my supply ran down very quick. Had 3 or four AA unit plus all the AA in base forces and a marine defence unit. Could have been just the hits and the repairs that did it but is seemed to drop about 15,000 in about a week.

[JeffroK]

Got any C47's or better that can shuttle in some supply to ombay?

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, gents, for lots of good suggestions and comments. To reply to a few:

JeffK: I have alot of big transport squadrons, but Brad has LRCAP over Bombay. As soon as he detects transports, he'll beef up the CAP, so I haven't tried yet. When I get more top quality fighter squadrons in theater and can seriously boost my CAP over Bombay, then I'll start.

princep01: The situation in India definately seems to have stabalized. From my perspective, Brad's operations there over the past month or two have been pretty feeble. I'm sure they make sense from his perspective, as I'll find out when I get to read his AAR, but I'm awfully glad he didn't push harder when the Allies were weaker.

Regarding supply: Over the past two days, Brad has stood down his bombers (not sure why), and the supply level has barely declined.

paullus99: I'm beginning to doubt that Brad can get any big points boosts by land - either in India or by amphibious assault against a big points locale (like Suva or Auckland). The Allied armies are too stout in these areas now, I think. The only way Brad can get a big points infusion is to win a lopsided carrier battle victory.

vettim: Yes, I think that's a definate possibilty, which is why I've remained in a defensive configuration with my MLR from Surat to Indore to Cawnpore. Based upon the current IJA troop deployments, I think the Allies can safely move down the coastal road from Surat toward Bombay. As long as I leave a solid garrison at Surat to guard against a flanking amphibious assault, that would be a safe move as the Allies have a strong guard protecting the flank from any attack from the interior (Indore, with well over 1,000 Allied AV, anchors that area).

Summary: I feel very good about the upcoming Allied invasion of Norfolk Island - I'm not risking much, I have good reonnaisance, the base is very lightly guarded, and ingress and egress should be very quick and hard for Brad to detect unti the last moment. But every operation that takes place thereafter will involve more and face greater risks, so I'm reevaluating them constantly.

[Canoerebel]

Okay, gentlemn, I am having serious issues with replacing USAAF aircraft. Fighters are pretty hard to come by, but bombers are incredibly scarce. I can't find any way to sustain any kind of bombing campaign even though my losses have been relatively light, but Japan seems to have a never-ending supply of bombers. Am I doing something wrong, looking at things the wrong way, or is the game unbalanced?

First, a screen to show total aircrat losses in the game to date. As you can see, both sides have lost close to the same amount (roughly 2300, with the Allies losing roughly 100 more than Japan). I would characterize aircraft losses in the game to date as relatively light.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a screen showing my current pools for most of my heavy USAAF bombers. This screen isn't big enough to show all types, but trust me, the others (A-20, etc.) are equally scarce. Note that there just isn't anything to draw on - no Mitchells, Forts, Marauders, etc.

[Canoerebel]

I have a decent number of USAAF fighters in pools (P-39, P-40E, P-400), but unfortunately those are not decent fighters. I do not have any P-38s in the pools. P-40K, which are pretty good, have just begun production.

The scarcity of decent aircraft is even worse for the RAF - no bombers or decent fighters at all.

Since Brad and I are waging a steady air war in India, the chronic shortage of good USAAF and RAF fighters and bombers, and the contrasting abundance of Japanese aircraft, seems really out of whack.

Perhaps it's the early date - we're in September '42 - but this is consistent with what I found in my previous PBEM game. Production seems to be out of balance in a major way. Or am I overlooking something?

[JohnDillworth]

Perhaps it's the early date - we're in September '42 - but this is consistent with what I found in my previous PBEM game. Production seems to be out of balance in a major way. Or am I overlooking something?

As you know, it's nothing new. Japanese control production and can produce vast numbers of aircraft. Allies are limited to historical production numbers right down to the airframe number. IF there is even a shadow of a doubt, the lowest possible estimate is provided to the allies (see the SBD discussions elsewhere, total production was greater than what appeared in the game, this was explained by training squadrons, accidents, lend-lease or whatever). Point is, Allies are limited to historical numbers, Japanese are in fantasy land. It was a design decision. Unfortunately, there is no option to adjust allied production. So he can have hundreds of Tojo's that did not exist in real life, but you can not have a single P-38 over what actually existed. (Flame-off)

[JohnDillworth]

Perhaps it's the early date - we're in September '42 - but this is consistent with what I found in my previous PBEM game. Production seems to be out of balance in a major way. Or am I overlooking something?

A toast to unrealistic aircraft production!

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Well, I had no fighters based at Lunga but still my supply ran down very quick. Had 3 or four AA unit plus all the AA in base forces and a marine defence unit. Could have been just the hits and the repairs that did it but is seemed to drop about 15,000 in about a week.

If you have at least x2 supply in the base, activating devices from the pool and bringing them in as replacements eats up supply very quickly as well. In the past I found a thread where some rough tests were done, but I don't have a reference. I'm not sure any comprehensive study has ever been done, but I recall numbers from that thread on the order of 10-15 supplies to activate one infantry squad and replace in an operating LCU. From memory.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

Perhaps it's the early date - we're in September '42 - but this is consistent with what I found in my previous PBEM game. Production seems to be out of balance in a major way. Or am I overlooking something?

A toast to unrealistic aircraft production!

Which shot glass has the poison in it? (Both?)