How do you think Russia's invasion of Hokkaido plan?

[jiajia1]

I got surprised there was really a plan. Never heard of that before.
Only one page though, so just copy here:

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19.8.45

GENERAL COMMANDER OF THE SOVIET FORCES IN THE FAR EAST

COPY: COMMANDER OF THE FORCES OF THE FIRST FAR EASTERN FRONT
MOSCOW – COMMANDER OF THE MAIN FLEET HEADQUARTERS

In response to No. 10 and 5247

Reporting on the plan of operation of the 87th rifle corps to the island of Hokkaido and the southern part of the islands of the Kurile chain.

1. Operation is carried out in three stages.

a. The first stage—transport of one rifle division to the port of RUMOI.

b. The second stage—transport of one rifle division to the port of RUMOI.

c. The third stage—transport of one rifle division to the islands of the Kurile chain through HOKKAIDO.

2. Implementation of the operation.

a. Concentrate two regiments of DB-3s, one regiment of Yak-9 and 20 Yak-9yu’s at the aerodromes of the Vladimiro-Ol’ginskaya Naval Base.

b. Deploy four positions of submarines from the side of the Tsugaru and Laperouse straits [with] the task of reconnaissance and destruction of military ships of the enemy: four submarines in all.

c. Carry out reconnaissance of the ports and the naval bases of the southern part of SAKHALIN, the island of HOKKAIDO, Tsugaru Strait and approaches to the Western coast of HOKKAIDO beginning from 19.8.45 [with] the aim of disclosing the location of military ships.

3. The transport of troops is to be carried out: the first dash—composed of one naval infantry regiment, one rifle regiment on 6 landing ships [under] the protection of 6 destroyers and 6 torpedo boats. Destroyers, in cases of counteraction, are used as ships of artillery support; in a favorable situation torpedo boats are used as transport means for the first dash. The main forces of the rifle division are transported on 6 transport ships [under] the protection of four frigates, 4 trawlers and 4 large hunters. The first dash departs with the calculation of being at the place of landing—the port of RUMOI—two hours ahead of the arrival of the main forces.

4. Provision of two destroyers and six torpedo boats [is by?] VLADIMIR. Destroyer air force cover everyone during the transport, bomber [illegible] force at the moment of the arrival of the ships in RUMOI takes waiting position over the port. It carries out a strike against the port only after a signal from the commander of the landing. The landing is commanded by counter-admiral SVYATOV. General command of the operation is left with me. Readiness of ships for the landing of the first division: at 12.00 on 19.8.45. Departure at 20 hours on 21.8.45. Landing at 05.00 on 24.08.45, landing of the rest in line with the return of the transport ships.

Request approval.

COMMANDER OF THE

PACIFIC OCEAN FLEET

YUMASHEV

MEMBER OF THE MILITARY

COUNCIL OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN FLEET

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Link is here
https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/122335

[jiajia1]

A potential mod between Soviet and Japan?

[Orm]

Thank you, jiajia1, for sharing.

[BBfanboy]

The air support looks weak to me - but I have no idea of what Japan had left to fight with in August 1945. If Japan was really weak, a mod/mini-scenario of that invasion would not be worth making.

[Walloc]

If you want to read a bit more about this tho its not the main subject of the book. Richard B Franks Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire has a chapter on russian invasions of the Kuril islands and a small discusion on an Hokkaido invasion.
In many of the cases historians has talked about this subject it seems to me that it was considered a foregone conclusion and it would go well.

Personally im a bit more sceptical. Yes, there was only about 2 japanease division on Hokkaido. The problem is getting there. The russian pacific fleet wasnt particular large nor well suited overall for amphibious operations. Yes they had a few US LCI(L) non the less the invasions of the Kurils is very much a shoe string operation. Mine sweepers and what not used to transport the invasion force there. The first landing on the northern most island takes place after the 15 aug. The japanease garrison resists and it was touch and go at some point during the morning of the 18th of aug. Orders from the 5th Fleet IIRC ordered the japanease to stop resisting and surrender on the 19th. The occupation of the remaining Kuril islands still toke 2 weeks times vs a non resisting japanease side. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Shumshu

Question to me with is what if the japanease caught wind of what was about to happen. This is ofc assuming there hadnt been a surrender on the 15 aug. The attack on Kuril island obiously alerting the japanease side to the possibility of further invasions. Then transfered search planes and lets say 500 kamikaze planes to Hokkaido. As you can read in the OP the air support / CAP for the operations wasnt exactly particular large and the AA capabilties on the russian fleet was lacking. There is alot of ifs in this and its impossible to say how those if would play out. I just see the potential for problems and if Stalins initial wishes that the invasion would happend within 3 weeks of hostillities commencing. There wasnt time to addrese these problems with for example a build up of air bases on the south end of Sahkalin or Kuril island allowing for shorter ranged figthers than the YAK 9 to come into play.

[RangerJoe]

Think if the Japanese would have countered that invasion the next day with airpower - not necessarily kamikazes but what few trained pilots that they had left. Not just attacking the invasion fleet but also the beachhead as well as the artillery support. Also flying in more troops with light artillery.

[Trugrit]

Just a side note.

Most people don’t realize that the Pacific war never formally ended between Japan and
the Soviet Union even though the Soviet Union no longer exists.

The Soviet Union and Japan never signed a peace treaty after WW2.
Negotiations have been going on for 77 years but have recently broken off.

https://time.com/6160029/japan-russia-wwii-ukraine/

Technically WW2 in the Pacific has still not ended.

[RangerJoe]

Since the Soviet Union is no more, it may be a technicality but then the Treaty of Portsmouth may now be applicable!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Portsmouth

Two pictures of the historical population of the Japanese Ainu people:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hist ... f_Ainu.png

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... e_Ainu.svg

So you can see where the Japanese had historical claims in the area.

[Yaab]

You would have to account in the mod for USN ships transferred to the Soviet Union navy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Hula