Merchant Ship Math

[stjeand]

Mods appear to work. You do have to have the folder with all the files in it or it just hangs when trying to accept the game.

I think you also need the .scn file in that directory...I was not taking any chances to copied the 39 one.

[CHINCHIN]

Well!!

This will open a new panorama for the games in PBEM.

[ComadrejaKorp]

Cool! what a great find!

[ncc1701e]

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

The British Start the 39 Scenario with 205 Merchants Ships ("MS"). It seems most Axis players are now only DOWing two minor nations that add MS to the British pool, namely Denmark (11 MS) and Belgium (4 MS). So effectively the British have 220 MS from relatively early in the game. Prior to the construction of the CV in June and the BB in November, the British can only build 10 MS every 180 days (roughly every 13 turns). Once these two capital ships are complete the British can build 60 MS every 13 turns. By my calculations this means that if the British maximize the production of MS from September 39 on, they can build a total of 170 MS by the end of 1941 (with 60 more in the build queue). The British can therefore theoretically have 390 MS by the end of 1941 less whatever number have been sunk by U-Boats. The only way the British can have more than this number is if they build shipyards.

In my AAR with Hadros where I am the Allies it is now February 42. Hadros has sunk 246 British MS, so if I had maximized British MS production I would have 144 MS. But since I didn't I only have 112 MS. The reason for the 32 MS shortage is because I delayed MS construction until the Spring of 1940 and because I built some Landing Ships.

In our mirror game where Hadros is the Allies, it is also now February 42. Hadros has lost 207 British MS to my U-Boats. If he maximized MS Production he should therefore have 183 MS. In fact he has 229. So obviously he did build lots of British shipyards.

I am posting this only to explain the importance to newer players (and even Veteran players like myself) of maximizing your UK MS production and even building additional shipyards.

So now, I am quite sure that UK needs to build more shipyards. [;)]
I am also buying shipyards for USA during 1939/1940. A good investment imo.

[Nirosi]

Hi,

Let's not forget Canada. That is another 10 MM at any time in production (plus up to 5 escorts), so the 1939 capacity is about 20 MM for the UK every 180 days. So, if no mistake on my part, about 40 MM more by end of 1941, and another 10 in queue.

By November 1940, the max capacity bumps to 70 MM at any time in construction (plus enough space left for escorts between Canada and UK). So my guess is that it should be enough most of the time until the US kicks in. However, that means not too many LC (unless taken from either MM or escorts if BOA goes OK enough for the Allies). If the UK wants to have a lot of LC by early 42, then shipyards would probably be necessary if the BOA is violent enough.

I know my usual opponents like to build them by the 1000s literally[X(]

[Harrybanana]

ORIGINAL: ncc1701e

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana

The British Start the 39 Scenario with 205 Merchants Ships ("MS"). It seems most Axis players are now only DOWing two minor nations that add MS to the British pool, namely Denmark (11 MS) and Belgium (4 MS). So effectively the British have 220 MS from relatively early in the game. Prior to the construction of the CV in June and the BB in November, the British can only build 10 MS every 180 days (roughly every 13 turns). Once these two capital ships are complete the British can build 60 MS every 13 turns. By my calculations this means that if the British maximize the production of MS from September 39 on, they can build a total of 170 MS by the end of 1941 (with 60 more in the build queue). The British can therefore theoretically have 390 MS by the end of 1941 less whatever number have been sunk by U-Boats. The only way the British can have more than this number is if they build shipyards.

In my AAR with Hadros where I am the Allies it is now February 42. Hadros has sunk 246 British MS, so if I had maximized British MS production I would have 144 MS. But since I didn't I only have 112 MS. The reason for the 32 MS shortage is because I delayed MS construction until the Spring of 1940 and because I built some Landing Ships.

In our mirror game where Hadros is the Allies, it is also now February 42. Hadros has lost 207 British MS to my U-Boats. If he maximized MS Production he should therefore have 183 MS. In fact he has 229. So obviously he did build lots of British shipyards.

I am posting this only to explain the importance to newer players (and even Veteran players like myself) of maximizing your UK MS production and even building additional shipyards.

So now, I am quite sure that UK needs to build more shipyards. [;)]
I am also buying shipyards for USA during 1939/1940. A good investment imo.

In hindsight I am now not so sure that Hadros did build UK shipyards. I think it more likely is that what happened is that when I attacked Vichy the bug happened that gave him extra UK shipyards.

But I agree that once this bug is fixed it will be more important than ever that the UK build shipyard early.

[Nirosi]

But I agree that once this bug is fixed it will be more important than ever that the UK build shipyard early.

Even before, as I except players will be honorable enough to monitor it to ensure not to exploit it now that they know! [:D]

[ncc1701e]

ORIGINAL: Nirosi

Even before, as I except players will be honorable enough to monitor it to ensure not to exploit it now that they know! [:D]

There is one preventing action that you can do. [:D]

[Nirosi]

There is one preventing action that you can do.

LOL!

[Harrybanana]

ORIGINAL: Nirosi

But I agree that once this bug is fixed it will be more important than ever that the UK build shipyard early.

Even before, as I except players will be honorable enough to monitor it to ensure not to exploit it now that they know! [:D]

Well I will certainly add it to my list of House Rules. But I suspect there are lots of players who don't follow the Forums Posts closely or who will just miss this one.

[sveint]

I don't think it wise to skip the Netherlands as the Axis.

Anyway, as the UK, try this:
1. At the start of the game set Detection & Electronics tech to max
2. Set reinforcements to 0 until you save up 400
3. Once you have 400 production, build a strategic bomber with said tech, call it "U-boat Nightmare"
4. You can base it in Iceland, Ireland, Canada as needed, Iceland is a good default.

[PL1]

Really? I have never had any luck with Detection and Electronics.
Do you see a impact in your games? You seem to imply that you have only one Heavy B. with that tech.

[Nirosi]

I must say I also find them almost useless. I invested often in them and they very very rarely find subs (even at 42 or 43+ tech). And by very rarely it is something around 15% or less probably for a huge cost. And when they do find, there is not even a guarantee for a hit! It is around 0 hits about 40% or so of the time. So once every 18 to 20 rolls or so (I swear it) there might be an effect! Been heavy bombers, they also lose 8% readiness just for patrolling, the same as bombing enemy cities covered with flak. After three games where I tried some, I came to wonder if there was not a problem with the code. Would be nice if Alvaro would have time to check it just to be sure. [:)]

But to be entirely fair, I must also say that once sank a full (or may 4 steps) u-boat in one shot. It was the only hit for almost a year, but it felt good.

PS : I suspect that tactical bombers would fare better (because of the increase anti-sub value), but they have too little range for the Atlantic.

[ncc1701e]

Bombers have better chances to find subs in port than at sea.

[Harrybanana]

ORIGINAL: Nirosi

I must say I also find them almost useless. I invested often in them and they very very rarely find subs (even at 42 or 43+ tech). And by very rarely it is something around 15% or less probably for a huge cost. And when they do find, there is not even a guarantee for a hit! It is around 0 hits about 40% or so of the time. So once every 18 to 20 rolls or so (I swear it) there might be an effect! Been heavy bombers, they also lose 8% readiness just for patrolling, the same as bombing enemy cities covered with flak. After three games where I tried some, I came to wonder if there was not a problem with the code. Would be nice if Alvaro would have time to check it just to be sure. [:)]

But to be entirely fair, I must also say that once sank a full (or may 4 steps) u-boat in one shot. It was the only hit for almost a year, but it felt good.

PS : I suspect that tactical bombers would fare better (because of the increase anti-sub value), but they have too little range for the Atlantic.

This has pretty much been my experience as well.

[sveint]

In that case I stand corrected. I seem to recall my opponents doing all they could to stay out of bomber range, costing them turns moving.