Weather and Turn Length in WiF

[paulderynck]

In making strategic plans in WiF there are some obvious things that can be concluded from the weather chart but one thing I've pondered is planning the Japanese expansion. When you are playing the game there are some things that are intuitive - like in S/O, N/D, and J/F, if the weather goes bad, it is more likely to stay that way or get worse. I've seen what looks like a good Japanese plan get messed up by the weather and I thought it would be useful to analyze the interrelationship of weather in the North and South Monsoon zones. Just looking at the chart gives an idea of course, but with all those variable turn lengths and adders for the prior impulse weather... what really are the chances for good weather in certain zones in certain months?

So I wrote a program to simulate one million games of WiF and tabulate the occurrences of each weather type in each weather zone for each of the month pairs: S/O, N/D, J/F, etc.

This also makes it possible to measure the average number of impulses for each turn along with the chances for an odd number of total impulses, which will result in the side moving first having their Initiative chances for the next turn worsened. Note the numbers to the right of "Impulses" is the average total number to be expected - not the number each side gets.

One thing the results show is that the first S/O (S/O '39) is unlike all the rest. This is because it is the only turn with predefined weather for the first impulse. The results were so different that they appear in their own column below. Another strange thing is that although the average number of impulses in J/F is 5.23, it actually has the lowest probability of there being an odd total number of impulses. This means there must be many times where there are either 4 or 6 impulses in that turn. OTOH the chances for an odd number of impulses are pretty close to 50/50 throughout.

As for Japan, the results indicate that if you want to attack the NEI first (as many Japanese players do), and then later go for the Philippines, you should attack in a S/O turn.

[Froonp]

Very interesting Paul ! [:)]

[BallyJ]

Isn't the first S/O 100% fine everywhere?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: BallyJ

Isn't the first S/O 100% fine everywhere?

Only the first impulse is Fine everywhere. After that there can be variations.

[brian brian]

neat stuff. the Germans should use that top row a lot in their own decision making. one of the best uses of the poor maligned Intelligence rule was to send out an expedition to Greenland for a cost of 2-3 Intell points and know the next impulse's weather. potentially priceless.

the Japanese DOW decision is such a delicate one and oh how frustrating it can be to get a low % chance of storm in the South Monsoon zone just as you are about to pull the trigger. Lately I look at it a bit more on other factors, myself.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: BallyJ

Isn't the first S/O 100% fine everywhere?

There was a change in the weather rules a long time back (in the 1980's?). Instead of the weather roll applying for the entire turn (as it did originally), there is a new weather roll after every even impulse - as well as at the start of each turn.