GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Moderator: Shannon V. OKeets
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Setup. USA. East & West Coast.
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- Setup-USA-West-Coast.png (955.97 KiB) Viewed 596 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Setup. USSR. WAR Objectives. Soviet Middle East.
1. Note that at setup the USSR is not in full compliance with their Soviet & Japanese Asian (HR-3) garrison requirements. The Mongolian Cav corps was required to setup in Ulan-Bator, Mongolia. Since this is more than 3 hexes away for any Japanese controlled hex this cav corps doesn't count as 1 of 2 required.
2. However; the Soviets can guarantee that this is corrected in their first [allied #2] impulse by moving the cav corps to Mongolia 58,139, which is 3-hexes away from a Japanese controlled hex in Inner Mongolia.
3. Thus, action item (1-1) was added to Soviet WAR #1 as a reminder to make this move.
4. Before each impulse I will review each applicable MP's WAR objectives and associated action items to guide their impulse. Of course, I will added to, close, delete, etc. to MP's WARs and associated actions items as applicable events unfolds whenever in the game.
5. This is my plan to better manage each MP. Hope springs eternal at the start of the game, well at least for me, no matter how long or how many games [I've] played.
6. Ok. It's time to kick this baby off!
7. Also, while I will be (trying to) document everything, as well as making sound strategic and tactical moves (hopefully in reverse order; that is good play before documenting), I will likely be making my share of grammatical and spelling errors. While I will correct those that are obvious, either before or after posting, I'm not going to invest significant time otherwise in this regard. So, please forgive what are to be a number of such errors in this AAR.
8. In fact I just noticed three such errors in the post below in USSR WAR #7, which after correction reads,
(USSR-WAR-7) Maintain sufficient garrison on frontier border with Germany such that Germany cannot break the Nazi-Soviet pact unless they (or Italy) control both Belgrade and Athens (see HR-11).
1. Note that at setup the USSR is not in full compliance with their Soviet & Japanese Asian (HR-3) garrison requirements. The Mongolian Cav corps was required to setup in Ulan-Bator, Mongolia. Since this is more than 3 hexes away for any Japanese controlled hex this cav corps doesn't count as 1 of 2 required.
2. However; the Soviets can guarantee that this is corrected in their first [allied #2] impulse by moving the cav corps to Mongolia 58,139, which is 3-hexes away from a Japanese controlled hex in Inner Mongolia.
3. Thus, action item (1-1) was added to Soviet WAR #1 as a reminder to make this move.
4. Before each impulse I will review each applicable MP's WAR objectives and associated action items to guide their impulse. Of course, I will added to, close, delete, etc. to MP's WARs and associated actions items as applicable events unfolds whenever in the game.
5. This is my plan to better manage each MP. Hope springs eternal at the start of the game, well at least for me, no matter how long or how many games [I've] played.
6. Ok. It's time to kick this baby off!
7. Also, while I will be (trying to) document everything, as well as making sound strategic and tactical moves (hopefully in reverse order; that is good play before documenting), I will likely be making my share of grammatical and spelling errors. While I will correct those that are obvious, either before or after posting, I'm not going to invest significant time otherwise in this regard. So, please forgive what are to be a number of such errors in this AAR.
8. In fact I just noticed three such errors in the post below in USSR WAR #7, which after correction reads,
(USSR-WAR-7) Maintain sufficient garrison on frontier border with Germany such that Germany cannot break the Nazi-Soviet pact unless they (or Italy) control both Belgrade and Athens (see HR-11).
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- USSR-WAR.png (43.93 KiB) Viewed 594 times
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- Setup-USSR-Middle-East.png (1.57 MiB) Viewed 594 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #1.
LOGS.
Applicable WAR.
LOGS.
- 01-AX-Logs.png (147.98 KiB) Viewed 569 times
- 01-AX-WAR.png (86.37 KiB) Viewed 569 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #1. Germany's Invasion of Poland.
Summary.
1. 1 of 4 Luftwaffe air actions "ordered" for CAP (i.e., naval air) over Baltic Sea convoys (4 CPs) as deterrent/protection from RAF surprise naval air strike. The Hampden bomber, lying extended range, could reach the 2-box, which meant that the RAF would (only) have a 30% chance of finding. However; this 30% was deemed by OKH as too high a risk and; therefore issued the order.
2. This left only 3 air actions for surprise ground strikes, all of which were indeed used for surprise ground strikes against the Polish 2 stack in each of Lodz & Warsaw. The Luftwaffe achieved max performance (i.e., 4 of 4 units flipped), which exceeded the 3.24 expected. And achieved this with only 2 or 3 planes (i.e., air units).
3. OKW elected to launch attack (i.e., land combat) against 4 of 6 potential targets this impulse. 2 were assault and 2 were blitz and all were automatic except for 1 blitz that was near automatic with a PWIN=100% (i.e., outcome automatic) and PNL=99% (i.e., 1% chance of losing a mot div).
4. No planes were required for ground support which means several Luftwaffe bomber and fighter groups are still ready for action if needed later in Poland or elsewhere.
5. The Wehrmacht successfully opened up the Polish corridor and has isolated the remainder of the Polish army, all of which are flipped, in Warsaw & Lodz.
6. The capture of Danzig resulted in the overrun and elimination of the Polish navy. A CP was scuttled and the CA DD flotilla was captured and turned over the KM. OKM is ecstatic about this!
7. von Rundstedt's, von Leeb's army group and von Bock's army have all linked up via double pincer movements.
Poland. End of Impulse.
Poland. Land Combat
Summary.
1. 1 of 4 Luftwaffe air actions "ordered" for CAP (i.e., naval air) over Baltic Sea convoys (4 CPs) as deterrent/protection from RAF surprise naval air strike. The Hampden bomber, lying extended range, could reach the 2-box, which meant that the RAF would (only) have a 30% chance of finding. However; this 30% was deemed by OKH as too high a risk and; therefore issued the order.
2. This left only 3 air actions for surprise ground strikes, all of which were indeed used for surprise ground strikes against the Polish 2 stack in each of Lodz & Warsaw. The Luftwaffe achieved max performance (i.e., 4 of 4 units flipped), which exceeded the 3.24 expected. And achieved this with only 2 or 3 planes (i.e., air units).
3. OKW elected to launch attack (i.e., land combat) against 4 of 6 potential targets this impulse. 2 were assault and 2 were blitz and all were automatic except for 1 blitz that was near automatic with a PWIN=100% (i.e., outcome automatic) and PNL=99% (i.e., 1% chance of losing a mot div).
4. No planes were required for ground support which means several Luftwaffe bomber and fighter groups are still ready for action if needed later in Poland or elsewhere.
5. The Wehrmacht successfully opened up the Polish corridor and has isolated the remainder of the Polish army, all of which are flipped, in Warsaw & Lodz.
6. The capture of Danzig resulted in the overrun and elimination of the Polish navy. A CP was scuttled and the CA DD flotilla was captured and turned over the KM. OKM is ecstatic about this!
7. von Rundstedt's, von Leeb's army group and von Bock's army have all linked up via double pincer movements.
Poland. End of Impulse.
- 01-AX-Eastern-POL-EOI.png (1.9 MiB) Viewed 567 times
- 01-AX-Eastern-POL-LC.png (268.4 KiB) Viewed 567 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #1. Germany's Invasion of Poland. 2D10 Attack Planner.
1. I've added an attack planner (tab) to my 2D10 CRT (ver 9 now) excel spreadsheet.
2. I've been doing this forever manually (well for as long as I've been playing MWIF) and decided to do it electronicallly.
3. The columns (& corresponding cells) in blue (alternating shades) are user inputs. The 2 columns in orange are calculated.
4. USER inputs:
AF = total MODIFIED attacking ground, air & naval factors.
DF = total modified defending ground, air & naval factors.
AM = total attacking modifications (i.e., flips, eng/HQ counter to cities/factories, armor/mech bonus, HQ support, etc.).
DM = total defending modifications (i.e., city, factory, armor/mech/AT bonus, HQ support, etc.).
OD* = desired LC odds.
5. Calculated:
OD = LC odds.
AF* = required total modified attacking factors to achieve OD* land combat odds.
6. So I use this planner as I plan, or do, bring units into contact with a possible land combat hex. The calculated odds (OD) lets met know how far away from the desired odds (OD*) when the actual number of attacking factors < desired number of attacking factors (i.e., AF < AF*). The planner also helps in allocating ground and naval support to achieve desired odds (i.e., OD*) or maximize resulting odds (i.e., OD)
7. Note that in my attacking planning for the 1st impulse there were 6 possible Polish targets but only 4 were attacked. It took a total of 110 modified attack factors to get auto results against the 4 versus 90 vs Lodz and 85.5 vs Warsaw. For desired odds I use 21 for assault and 19 for blitz, which will ensure PWIN=100% without flips or losses. Note: 21 A will guarantee a win (PWIN=100%), all defenders destroyed up to 2 (with 3rd shattered if 3) and no attacker losses (PNL=100%) or flips (PORG=100%, PHOG=0%, PDOG=0%). 19B will guarantee a win, a breakthrough (PBRK=100%) if applicable and no attacker losses or flips. However; doesn't guarantee any units destroyed (i.e.,, LCR=20) or only 1 destroyed (i.e., LCR=21). NOTE: PROG=probability that all attackers remaining organized (except for HQs providing support), PHOG=probability that half of the surviving attackers (rounded down) are flipped & PDOG=probability that all surviving attackers are flipped.
2D10 Attack Planning.
2D10 CRT Calculator (ver 9).
EXCEL tool zipped & attached.
1. I've added an attack planner (tab) to my 2D10 CRT (ver 9 now) excel spreadsheet.
2. I've been doing this forever manually (well for as long as I've been playing MWIF) and decided to do it electronicallly.
3. The columns (& corresponding cells) in blue (alternating shades) are user inputs. The 2 columns in orange are calculated.
4. USER inputs:
AF = total MODIFIED attacking ground, air & naval factors.
DF = total modified defending ground, air & naval factors.
AM = total attacking modifications (i.e., flips, eng/HQ counter to cities/factories, armor/mech bonus, HQ support, etc.).
DM = total defending modifications (i.e., city, factory, armor/mech/AT bonus, HQ support, etc.).
OD* = desired LC odds.
5. Calculated:
OD = LC odds.
AF* = required total modified attacking factors to achieve OD* land combat odds.
6. So I use this planner as I plan, or do, bring units into contact with a possible land combat hex. The calculated odds (OD) lets met know how far away from the desired odds (OD*) when the actual number of attacking factors < desired number of attacking factors (i.e., AF < AF*). The planner also helps in allocating ground and naval support to achieve desired odds (i.e., OD*) or maximize resulting odds (i.e., OD)
7. Note that in my attacking planning for the 1st impulse there were 6 possible Polish targets but only 4 were attacked. It took a total of 110 modified attack factors to get auto results against the 4 versus 90 vs Lodz and 85.5 vs Warsaw. For desired odds I use 21 for assault and 19 for blitz, which will ensure PWIN=100% without flips or losses. Note: 21 A will guarantee a win (PWIN=100%), all defenders destroyed up to 2 (with 3rd shattered if 3) and no attacker losses (PNL=100%) or flips (PORG=100%, PHOG=0%, PDOG=0%). 19B will guarantee a win, a breakthrough (PBRK=100%) if applicable and no attacker losses or flips. However; doesn't guarantee any units destroyed (i.e.,, LCR=20) or only 1 destroyed (i.e., LCR=21). NOTE: PROG=probability that all attackers remaining organized (except for HQs providing support), PHOG=probability that half of the surviving attackers (rounded down) are flipped & PDOG=probability that all surviving attackers are flipped.
2D10 Attack Planning.
- 01-AX-Eastern-POL-LM-LCD.png (1.77 MiB) Viewed 562 times
EXCEL tool zipped & attached.
Last edited by rkr1958 on Mon Mar 13, 2023 6:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #1. Italy. Med.
1. As required by (ITA-WAR-2), Italy used their 1 naval move and 1/2 land moves to get an inf div into Olbia, Sardinia, which will remain there until France falls.
2. Also, I ran across and corrected a "tactical" mistake I made in CF take 2. In take 2, I didn't "discover" this mistake until I built and deployed the Italian marine corps on turn 5 or 6. The mistake was that I failed to scrap the older 3-3 TRS to ensure that Italy would get the 4-3 TRS. And of course, I drew both 3-3 TRSs, which left the 4-3 in Italy's force pool. The issue was that at best the Italian marine could only invade from the 2-box, incurring additional notional. So being a solo game I used may editing skills to scrap the older 3-3 TRS and move the 4-3 TRS from the force pool to the map. I had forgotten that I had done this until this impulse, which I against made the edits to correct this tactical mistake.
3. By the way, with the older 3-3 TRS scrapped, Italy still has two 4-3 amphs in their force pool which can be build if additional Italian sea lift is needed/wanted. Versus building a 3 TRS (if not scrapped), this will only cost 1 extra BP in cycle 1 and 1 extra turn in both cycle 1 & cycle 2. Well worth it in my opinion in order to ensure the 4-3 TRS at setup.
Italian Coast. Sardinia.
Italian TRS Scrap Fix. Or "OH CRAP!" fix.
Thank goodness for the "magic" of game file editing!
1. As required by (ITA-WAR-2), Italy used their 1 naval move and 1/2 land moves to get an inf div into Olbia, Sardinia, which will remain there until France falls.
2. Also, I ran across and corrected a "tactical" mistake I made in CF take 2. In take 2, I didn't "discover" this mistake until I built and deployed the Italian marine corps on turn 5 or 6. The mistake was that I failed to scrap the older 3-3 TRS to ensure that Italy would get the 4-3 TRS. And of course, I drew both 3-3 TRSs, which left the 4-3 in Italy's force pool. The issue was that at best the Italian marine could only invade from the 2-box, incurring additional notional. So being a solo game I used may editing skills to scrap the older 3-3 TRS and move the 4-3 TRS from the force pool to the map. I had forgotten that I had done this until this impulse, which I against made the edits to correct this tactical mistake.
3. By the way, with the older 3-3 TRS scrapped, Italy still has two 4-3 amphs in their force pool which can be build if additional Italian sea lift is needed/wanted. Versus building a 3 TRS (if not scrapped), this will only cost 1 extra BP in cycle 1 and 1 extra turn in both cycle 1 & cycle 2. Well worth it in my opinion in order to ensure the 4-3 TRS at setup.
Italian Coast. Sardinia.
- 01-AX-ITA-Coast-Sardina-EOI.png (1.28 MiB) Viewed 558 times
Thank goodness for the "magic" of game file editing!
- 01-AX-MED-ITA-TRS-FP-Scrap-Redo.png (115.9 KiB) Viewed 558 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Axis #1. Asian Front.
1. Even through I set up the Chinese (Nationalist) and the Japanese I looked over the situation in northern and central China for a while and decided to "redirect" Army Group Umezu and redefine their objectives.
2. Their focus was shifted to southern China and flanking of the weakly held southern flank to the capture of Kweiling, RP [90,38], Nanning, Kumning and physical closing of the Burma Road.
3. Their initial objectives for the capture of Changsha, RP[86,142] & Hengyang were deferred indefinitely.
4. It's amazing that in even playing both sides I can such an opportunity as I've apparently created for Japan.
Southern China. Army Group Umezu.
Japan. Army Group Yamamoto (Inactive).
Still in Japan and awaiting transport to Northern China for activation.
1. Even through I set up the Chinese (Nationalist) and the Japanese I looked over the situation in northern and central China for a while and decided to "redirect" Army Group Umezu and redefine their objectives.
2. Their focus was shifted to southern China and flanking of the weakly held southern flank to the capture of Kweiling, RP [90,38], Nanning, Kumning and physical closing of the Burma Road.
3. Their initial objectives for the capture of Changsha, RP[86,142] & Hengyang were deferred indefinitely.
4. It's amazing that in even playing both sides I can such an opportunity as I've apparently created for Japan.
Southern China. Army Group Umezu.
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Still in Japan and awaiting transport to Northern China for activation.
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Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
For those interest rev6 of my AAR template attached. As always, still a work in progress.
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- AAR-Template-rev6.zip
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Ronnie
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anarchyintheuk
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Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Looking forward to it.
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. War Gaming Logs 1/3.
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- 02-AL-LOG-1.png (173.11 KiB) Viewed 499 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. War Gaming Logs 2/3.
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- 02-AL-LOG-2.png (122.07 KiB) Viewed 498 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. War Gaming Logs 3/3.
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- 02-AL-LOG-3.png (82.17 KiB) Viewed 497 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. The Western Front. "Galaxy Quest. Omega 13".
Another case of examining a situation from the opposite perspective and finding something (potentially) significant. Specifically, Hampden extend range (2/2=1 a2s) surprise port strike against the large KM footprint (14 SCS) w/AMPH & TRS in Stettin. The loss of either or both the amph. The loss of either would seriously affect Germany's "surprise" invasion of Norway unless replaced/repair. Best/worst cases are: (1) X,D,A w/X &D both placed by the CW & (2) D,A. Working through the odds gives the CW: 33% chance of sinking the Amph, 47% chance of damaging it and 20% of flipping it. Seeing Germany's amph sunk or even damage would be a major headache for their upcoming "surprise" invasion of Norway (HR 19. Operation Weserunbung). As the CW player in CF take 2, I overlooked this setup tactical mistake by Germany. However; taking my time in CF take 3, I most certainly have saw. One seen, I can't unsee it! I really don't want this setup mistake to potentially derail this game because of HR 19. What do I do? Well, like the crew of Protector in "Galaxy Quest" I too possess an "Omega 13". A device that turns back time 13-seconds to let the user redeem one major error. Well, I've already used this device to redeem the Italian transports and now I'm using it to disperse the 14 SCS KM profile setup in Stettin. Specifically: (1) Amph, TRS, CA Graf Spee & CA Deutschland "now has setup" in Memel, (2) BB Scharnhorst, BB Gnisenau, CA Blucher & CA Admiral Hipper in Konigsberg, (3) BB Schleswig-Holstein & 5 CPs in Kohlberg & (4) BB Schlesien & 2 CP (remain) in Stettin. Only (3) Kohlberg & (4) Stettin are in (extended) range of the Hampden setup in Harwich.
Another case of examining a situation from the opposite perspective and finding something (potentially) significant. Specifically, Hampden extend range (2/2=1 a2s) surprise port strike against the large KM footprint (14 SCS) w/AMPH & TRS in Stettin. The loss of either or both the amph. The loss of either would seriously affect Germany's "surprise" invasion of Norway unless replaced/repair. Best/worst cases are: (1) X,D,A w/X &D both placed by the CW & (2) D,A. Working through the odds gives the CW: 33% chance of sinking the Amph, 47% chance of damaging it and 20% of flipping it. Seeing Germany's amph sunk or even damage would be a major headache for their upcoming "surprise" invasion of Norway (HR 19. Operation Weserunbung). As the CW player in CF take 2, I overlooked this setup tactical mistake by Germany. However; taking my time in CF take 3, I most certainly have saw. One seen, I can't unsee it! I really don't want this setup mistake to potentially derail this game because of HR 19. What do I do? Well, like the crew of Protector in "Galaxy Quest" I too possess an "Omega 13". A device that turns back time 13-seconds to let the user redeem one major error. Well, I've already used this device to redeem the Italian transports and now I'm using it to disperse the 14 SCS KM profile setup in Stettin. Specifically: (1) Amph, TRS, CA Graf Spee & CA Deutschland "now has setup" in Memel, (2) BB Scharnhorst, BB Gnisenau, CA Blucher & CA Admiral Hipper in Konigsberg, (3) BB Schleswig-Holstein & 5 CPs in Kohlberg & (4) BB Schlesien & 2 CP (remain) in Stettin. Only (3) Kohlberg & (4) Stettin are in (extended) range of the Hampden setup in Harwich.
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Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. Battle of the Atlantic (BOA). Threats.
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- 02-AL-BOA-Threats.png (152.98 KiB) Viewed 493 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. BOA. Risk Assessment 1/2.
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- 02-AL-BOA-Risk-Assessment-1.png (75.51 KiB) Viewed 492 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. BOA. Risk Assessment 2/2.
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- 02-BOA-Risk-Assessment-Subs-Only.png (63.29 KiB) Viewed 491 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. BOA. Escort & Patrol Summaries.
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- 02-BOA-ASW-Escort-Patrol-Summary.png (50.59 KiB) Viewed 490 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. Western Front. North Sea Blockade.
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- 02-AL-Western-North-Sea-Blockade.png (1.6 MiB) Viewed 489 times
Last edited by rkr1958 on Fri Mar 17, 2023 2:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. Med. Low Profile Naval Footprint.
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- 02-Med-Low-Profile-FP.png (2.19 MiB) Viewed 488 times
Ronnie
Re: GW Counterfactual Take 3.
Turn 1. Sep/Oct 1939. Allied #2. Western Front & Med. RN in Reserve.
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- 02-AL-RN-In-Reserve.png (590.37 KiB) Viewed 487 times
Ronnie