AI for MWiF - USSR

[morgil]

Sweden:
I cant remember where i found the numbers, but Swedish ore exports to Germany during WWII was reduced every year, with a big reduction in -42 or -43, before it was finally cut off entirely. In the early war, Sweden was demobilized, and I guess only good diplomacy, and promises to continue ore deliveries that Germany was completely dependent on, kept them out of the war. Almost 60% of all German Iron Ore imports came from Sweden.

Winterwar:
Germany should only opt for war in the cases where there is only one chit in the pool, and/or if it is probable that they can stop the war after the first impulse. Thus, if USSR checks the USE pools, and has a unit SE of Petsamo, one SE of Salla, and the rest in the Karelia area, it should be no trouble declaring in J/F 40. It should be highly unlikely that Germany would trade 2 USE chits for a resource, a HQI, several winterized units, and another icefree port in Northern USSR.

The worst part I believe of loosing Finland however is the possibility of shipping Lend-Lease through Norwegian ports.

[micheljq]

Archangel port is not useable when weather is bad, to receive the western allies's loans.

[composer99]

At WiFCon I just played the USSR and made the effort to hold the rail line to Murmansk in a Barb campaign. As far as I am concerned it was a success as I got the two factories in Murmansk and then secured Petsamo; the problem was that my Allies never came through with enough lend-lease for me to build up and go on the offensive (to be fair, they lost a lot of convoys in 1941-42). The problem for the USSR, as Brian notes above, is that it is too easy for alternative lend-lease routes to be cut.

I think as long as the USSR can prevent a forced peace and can threaten a surprise impulse invasion near Helsinki the Germans should probably cave in over a Borderland claim. If the USSR conquers Finland their lend-lease options improve considerably and so does the survivability of Leningrad.

[brian brian]

ahhh, Lend-Lease through Norway. I like that idea and I'll have to tuck that one under the hat. But the Germans could stop that pretty quickly by investing in one combined impulse to do a landing and put a ZoC on any of six hexes, or even landing a division in any of five hexes, and actually a few more hexes in MWiF, so I don't think that would go on for very long. Murmansk would still be perfectly safe though.

And given a DoW in J/F 40, the US would still have 1939 chits in the pool, which could possibly include the magic '5' or some threes or fours.

And J/F and M/A are the easiest turns for the Germans to land peacekeepers and make the Russians really have to slug their way in to Helsinki. The Russians will have six planes, but Finland is all forest, and the Luftwaffe might have some spare capacity left-over from the French campaign to send some support too.

And going in that early in 1940 gives the Japanese plenty of time to deploy to grab a nearly empty Manchuria. But then so does the horribly slow process of setting up for a Finnish operation given the constraints on moving the Russians and the Chinese Communists with all Combined impulses.

So I'm not sure I would pick Jan/Feb 40 either and as the Germans I would still have to think hard about trading in Finland for the USE benefits, not to mention tying the Russians down for most of 1940. Getting even a minimum number of units in to good positions in the Ukraine would be a challenge for them, especially if the Japanese start picking on the ChiComms, though granted if Japan went for Manchuria it would suddenly get easy for the Red Army to move around.

My thinking for the Russians would be to not necessarily go all the way to Helsinki, especially if Germany sent a lot of aid up there, but to have at least a credible threat of doing that.


And I brought this up because it would be important for the Russians to have a CP set up at start in either Leningrad or Murmansk or at sea in the Baltic. The Russians can slog forward along the coast from Leningrad, or if they go around Lake Ladoga they will need a chain of HQ's (especially in the delightful Arctic zone) or they can get creative with some sea supply and the ports north of Helsinki. If you don't want to give away your Finnish idea upon set-up, one from Murmansk could always move to Leningrad a few turns later.

Where to set up the TRS also comes in to play...seeing it in the Baltic is a near-certain tip-off for the Germans, but would certainly speed up the Helsinki operation. If I see that as the Germans I would just stockpile some of the better MIL and GARR units in the Baltic ports and hope the Russians launch when I am not too critically busy in France.

Oh and I would note that it is not super easy for the Axis to cut the other Lend-Lease routes, but that is something out of the hands of the Russian player. The Murmansk route is one they can defend themselves, on land at least.

[morgil]

Hmm, yes, J/F might be a bit quickish. But the point I really tried to make is that Germany has little to gain from the Winterwar.
And dicounting the Norwegian ports, just add Petsamo, and the resource there, and that should be more than enough to make it a bad trade.

[Extraneous]

What priorities would you assign to the AI for 19.6 Soviet border rectification?
 
(A) The USSR doesn’t claim the Finnish borderlands or the USSR claims the Finnish borderlands
 
(B) The USSR doesn’t claim Bessarabia or the USSR claims Bessarabia.
 
 
 
What priorities would you assign to the AI to DOW Japan?
 
 

[brian brian]

I would always claim Bessarabia.

I am leaning towards a demand on the Finnish borderlands in all games as well, to help protect the rail line to Murmansk in the event of a powerful 1941 Barbarossa.

Given the ponderous nature of operating on all Combined impulses, I think May/Jun 1940 is the best turn to make the demand on Finland. Jul/Aug might be a little better from a US entry point of view. But it might take a long time to march all the way to Helsinki.

[morgil]

I would agree, with brian here.
Romania is one less resource to Germany, and one more to USSR, Finland is just one more to USSR.
And strategically I think Bessarabia is more important than Finnish Borderlands.
However, as brian pointed out, its quite ponderous to move a large army with only Combined impulses, so if you are going for both, it would be better to claim Finish lands first, and then Bessarabia, as your units are then more where you want them to be.

Possibly one could allow the US to "veto", or greenlight, the FB claim until M/J 1940.
That is, if forinstance the chits in the pool are weak, US could encourage the move, and if they are strong, discourage it.

[brian brian]

I hadn't considered the order to do them in. I set-up to do Bessarabia first, so if the Germans want to activate Rumania by attacking Yugoslavia they have to do it at their first opportunity. The fact most likely to get the Germans to cede it is having the entire Soviet bomber force positioned in range of Ploesti. Some ground units help too of course but aren't as important to have maximized.

[brian brian]

So I tried out a 'Summer War' yesterday in a solitaire CyberBoard. I have just looked at the MWiF map and things are quite different now. In paper-WiF Vyborg/Viipuri is a bottleneck for the Russians that can only be attacked from one hex. The best way around this for the Russians is to use Zhukov's HQ Support, but then you need a motorized division in the attack in case of a Blitz loss. In my paper version, the Russians attacked in Jul/Aug due to a failure to have a mot. division ready for May/Jun. The Russians bounced off the initial attack and will probably now never conquer Finland before Barbarossa as they will face two German MIL in each hex along the way to Helsinki, in addition to Luftwaffe support. Developing flank support is too difficult in the Arctic after the summer and with the distances and hex-costs involved on the Scandinavian map, but they probably have safeguarded the link to Murmansk. There was actually a lot more excitement as the Finns left Helsinki empty to maximize front-line defense as well as holding the resource in Petsamo. The Russians tried the lucky attack with the 2-3 Infantry division and rolled a 12 + 6 = 18 to take the hex, then failed on their main attack on Vyborg. The Finns were then able to walk back and retake the capital. Classic case of WiF's simultaneous good luck / bad luck. This is high-risk play for Finland as German units could not land and re-take a Russian hex. If the Russians had had two infantry divisions available afloat the Finns would have sacrificed the resource and deployed in Helsinki.

In MWiF, Finland is more vulnerable. Every position along the direct line from Leningrad to Helsinki can be attacked from at least two hexes. The best place for the Finns to hold the flank is the swamp hex north-east of Viipuri, but that puts their main position in a clear hex vulnerable to Soviet tanks. Still, the overall key to the operation is the date it is launched I think. In Jul/Aug 1940, as the Germans I would still consider denying the Borderlands request and shipping as much MIL as I could get to the coast of the Baltic on time, something I generally have available there anyway as part of the garrison in Poland. A lot would depend on what overall level of assets the Russians had in the Leningrad area and if it was deeper in to the turn or not (this can happen as the Russians slowly deploy their Baltic Fleet for shore bombardment support). The Russians just might get sucked in to a quagmire. If they launch in May/Jun 1940, they will have plenty of time to methodically blitz toward Helsinki and take it regardless of how many volunteers Germany could send. If the Russians are slack on preparation for the war due to ops elsewhere and launch after Jul/Aug, there is no doubt I would deny the claims as the Germans.

[brian brian]

also, the Soviets accidentally discovered one ideal time to attack Finland: Whenever the Germans have a Merchant Raider in a neutral port. Just one Combined Impulse won't be enough for the Germans to reinforce Finland.

[Extraneous]

Things the AI for the USSR to keep under consideration:
 
(1) Eastern Poland
 
(2) DoW Persia
 
(3) Japan DoW of USSR
 
(4) Soviet border rectification - Finland
 
(5) DoW Iraq
 
(6) The Baltic States
 
(7) Soviet border rectification - Bessarabia
 
 

[paulderynck]

A DoW on Iraq is unwise prior to conquering Persia or Turkey.

[composer99]

One sneaky thing the USSR player attempted in our RL game is as follows:
- As Germany, I ran into delays taking out Poland (so I only seized Warsaw in November/December)
- The Soviets declined to secure Eastern Poland
- As of Jan/Feb, the border had advanced beyond where my garrison was, so in theory I had no defensive garrison
- Had I not been able to go first, the Soviets would have been able to declare war on Germany in Jan/Feb 1940

Fortunately for me, I went first, so now I control Eastern Poland and the Soviets can't occupy the Baltic, which will save me some time when I attack them.

Given the risks involved, this should be a very low probability move; the USSR shouldn't even think about it unless Germany muffs up the Polish campaign (bad attack dice, stormy weather, that sort of thing) and even then I would think there should be no more than a 5% probability of attempting this gambit if and only if the Germans can't finish Poland off until the end of November/December 1939.

[sajbalk]

But now that the sneak has failed, Germany is very well positioned for a 1941 Barb. Your units can get another 4-5 hexes to the east saving 1 or 2 impulses in the crucial surprise turn.

ORIGINAL: composer99

One sneaky thing the USSR player attempted in our RL game is as follows:
- As Germany, I ran into delays taking out Poland (so I only seized Warsaw in November/December)
- The Soviets declined to secure Eastern Poland
- As of Jan/Feb, the border had advanced beyond where my garrison was, so in theory I had no defensive garrison
- Had I not been able to go first, the Soviets would have been able to declare war on Germany in Jan/Feb 1940

Fortunately for me, I went first, so now I control Eastern Poland and the Soviets can't occupy the Baltic, which will save me some time when I attack them.

Given the risks involved, this should be a very low probability move; the USSR shouldn't even think about it unless Germany muffs up the Polish campaign (bad attack dice, stormy weather, that sort of thing) and even then I would think there should be no more than a 5% probability of attempting this gambit if and only if the Germans can't finish Poland off until the end of November/December 1939.

[brian brian]

buh bye Josef, you threw the dice and they came up snake eyes

[brian brian]

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Things the AI for the USSR to keep under consideration:

(1) Eastern Poland

timing is everything, just ask Composer99's opponent. Don't let even a 10% chance to end the turn come up before you do this.

(2) DoW Persia

I am opposed except in cases where Japan is just clueless, with nothing in Canton to respond and a good chance to end the turn before anything reaches Canton. The operation takes longer in MWiF so this is magnified. Come to think of it, that would give me as Japan a greater chance to lay in wait with nothing in Canton, but always with enough lift in reserve to intervene in Persia in two impulses instead of one. Hmm, I like that. Anyway, even a Japan that doesn't look like it will attack the USSR might issue the DoW if the Russians open the door to that wonderful oil in Persia.

(3) Japan DoW of USSR

For me playing Japan, a no brainer, unless it's a 1941 Gibraltar campaign. Then Tojo better think twice. For the Russians, I leave a couple medium-good GARR in the cities and make Japan march up and fight them. How many of the Pacific reserves to leave out there I go with a case by case basis. I do like having fun with the 2-5 and 1-5 cavalry units that are worthless anywhere near the panzers anyway. And I never surrender against the Japanese...what's the point?

(4) Soviet border rectification - Finland

I like the extra security for the Murmansk rail lines.

(5) DoW Iraq

This is a DoW too far in my opinion. Maybe if the Axis is bogged down in Spain this can be good though.

(6) The Baltic States

Another essential. Nov/Dec 1940 is my preferred turn. Some thought can be given to Sep/Oct 39 if you want to seriously attempt stuffing the border in 1941 to insure the Italians can't sneak in there.

(7) Soviet border rectification - Bessarabia

Another definite. A really, really good player I know disagrees but I don't understand the downsides. Enlighten me.

[sajbalk]

ORIGINAL: brian brian


(7) Soviet border rectification - Bessarabia

Another definite. A really, really good player I know disagrees but I don't understand the downsides. Enlighten me.

[/quote]

If the USSR does not claim Bessarabia, the Axis cannot align (and set up in) Rumania without a DOW on Yugoslavia. In this event, yugo cannot be another Italian Home Country, and the Axis have 1 less HQ-I. If Bess is claimed, some Axis will decline the claims and DOW Bulg and Hun, then Greece. Then they align Yugo to Italy and are set up in Rumania for the start of barb.

[Cheesehead]

I agree that Bess is crucial to the GE. One of the reasons I always go for the DOW on Yugo impulse 3, SO39 when I play GE, then align Rumania. It can cost some USE chits, but it is so important to keep those city and clear hexes in Bessarabia to stage the short range airplanes for the start of Barbarossa. It is also nice to have Yugo in the bank so early in the game in case France takes longer to conquer then usual. Trying to take out Yugo in JF41 or MA41 is a real pain when you need those turns to be staging for good hit on Russia in MA or MJ41. If the GE decide to go to Spain, it is also nice to have Yugo in the bag in 1939 when most of the Luftwaffe is tied up in the West.

Cheers

John

[brian brian]

ORIGINAL: Cheesehead

Trying to take out Yugo in JF41 or MA41 is a real pain when you need those turns to be staging for good hit on Russia in MA or MJ41.

kinda like in the real war.