Making checks for changing formation

[Pistachio]

Well, if it's a 10% chance of reforming my light cavalry from disordered into column after a charge, and they fail 10 straight times, there's a trout in the milk somewhere. So what else goes into the formula besides what the manual says:

- unit is in a threat zone (False)
- unit is already disordered (True)
- unit initial morale <3 at start (False and it's 5.57 now)
- nation does not have Formation Drilling upgrade (True)

On top of that, the unit has the disciplined attribute and 10 MP, so it's not that there aren't enough moves.

They are Batavian cav, so could perhaps their overal quality rating be lower?

Thanks.

[06 Maestro]

Its lousy odds. Perhaps it may work out after a thousand tries, but it is still 10% each and every time-not good.

One thing that helps during detailed battles in rallying is to make sure each unit has maximum assistance from generals. The best way to do that is to have most units in corps-and to have a 1 star or two in each corp. Its my understanding that initiative ratings are totaled from the pertinent generals. A division assigned directly under the army general will only have that one generals initiative rating to assist in rallying-which may be very inadequate.

[Pistachio]

Ah, that may be it, then. I'm only a couple turns into the game and although there is one corps in the army, some units are attached directly to the army. I think there's one 3-star and one 1-star. Corps are always the first things I produce because I'm just anal about organization. I think they build/rebuild strength faster that way, too.

Incidentally, after nightfall, the odds went up to 20% and they reformed on the first try, so maybe there's a line-of-sight factor, too.

Thanks very much!

[06 Maestro]

You're welcome

Interesting about the nightfall having an affect.

[arras]

Yes, cavalry have higher regroup chance during night ...and night only, it will drop again in the morning. Illogical but it is like that.

Assigning general with best morale rating helps regroup too.

[Pistachio]

Yes, I've got a one-star in there now whose special ability is cavalry rally. Things are improving.

Thanks!

[altipueri]

If it's 10% chance per turn then there's still about a 35% chance of not succeeding after 10 turns.

.9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = about 35%

I think.

[Steely Glint]

ORIGINAL: Pistachio

Well, if it's a 10% chance of reforming my light cavalry from disordered into column after a charge, and they fail 10 straight times, there's a trout in the milk somewhere.

There is no trout. The probability of that entire series of events happening is 34.8%, roughly the same a rolling either a 1 or a 2 on the roll of a six-sided dice.

[Pistachio]

The probability of that entire series of events happening is 34.8%, roughly the same a rolling either a 1 or a 2 on the roll of a six-sided dice.

Numbers are not really my strong suit and I'm wondering if you could expand on that. Do you mean that the probability of changing formation is 35% or that the odds of failing 10 times is 35%? Thanks.

[steel god]

The probability of failing each turn is 90%, and the probability of having failed 10 turns in a row is roughly 35%.

[Pistachio]

Ok, that makes sense. But then how can - and sorry to start throwing out a lot of numbers here - how can a unit with a 0% chance of success occasionally successfully reform? Since 0 x 0 is zero. In other words, a 100% chance of failure x 100% - 1 x 1 - would not result in any probability of success over time. And another unit with a chance of 60% or even 80% of success will fail. A 40% chance of failure will diminish quickly over 10 tries, and a 20% chance of failure even more quickly. .... I don't mean to dispute your reasoning, I just don't get how the game figures this stuff; I freely confess that I don't know how I survived my college Prob/Stats class.

[Pistachio]

Ha--hm...

[steel god]

ORIGINAL: Pistachio

Ok, that makes sense. But then how can - and sorry to start throwing out a lot of numbers here - how can a unit with a 0% chance of success occasionally successfully reform? Since 0 x 0 is zero. In other words, a 100% chance of failure x 100% - 1 x 1 - would not result in any probability of success over time. And another unit with a chance of 60% or even 80% of success will fail. A 40% chance of failure will diminish quickly over 10 tries, and a 20% chance of failure even more quickly. .... I don't mean to dispute your reasoning, I just don't get how the game figures this stuff; I freely confess that I don't know how I survived my college Prob/Stats class.

I only play COGEE via PBEM so I've never read the detailed combat rules (hate all that minutia cluttering up my strategic play) but clearly what you describe can not be. If there are units with a 0% chance to do something and they manage to succeed at it, then either that 0% chance is actually some percentage greater than 0 but less than 1 and is simply being expressed as 0% due to rounding; or the game has modifiers that effect the chance and the unit with a base 0% chance, gets a 10% chance at night (or something similar).

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: altipueri

If it's 10% chance per turn then there's still about a 35% chance of not succeeding after 10 turns.

.9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = about 35%

I think.

Actually the chance of not succeeding on turn 11+ is still 90%, previous results does not change the odds.
Every turn no matter if it is #1 or #1000 is still 90% fail 10% succeed.

[steel god]

ORIGINAL: terje439

ORIGINAL: altipueri

If it's 10% chance per turn then there's still about a 35% chance of not succeeding after 10 turns.

.9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = about 35%

I think.

Actually the chance of not succeeding on turn 11+ is still 90%, previous results does not change the odds.
Every turn no matter if it is #1 or #1000 is still 90% fail 10% succeed.

That's true, the chance of failure on turn 11 is still 10%, but I believe the question was what are the odds of failing that 10% ten turns in a row, and that answer is roughly a 35% of having that happen to you. The original poster thought it unreasonable but the math shows it's not as odd as you might think at 35% probability.

[terje439]

The way I read OP it seemed that he ment that if he has a 10% chance of success, and he tries 10 times that equals 100% and should succeed, and that is of course not correct as his chance every turn is 10% to succeed.

Terje

[Pistachio]

Sorry for the tardy response, here. Sometimes real life gets in the way!

My original thinking was that a 10% chance (or a 30% chance, or whatever) should be an absolute 10% chance no matter how many times you do it. Otherwise, why call it 10%? But my mathematical shortcomings did make me wonder how many times you'd have to flip the proverbial coin before getting a success.

Multiplying each roll of the die didn't make complete sense at first because, as I mentioned before, you sometimes get success even with a 0% chance or failure with a 100% chance. But what terje439 says about rounding, though, now makes steelgod's multiplication work (at least in my mind) and I should have thought about that. The game would naturally not show you any decimal places and would indeed round things off. You've got to draw the line somewhere, and I'm satisfied with having them rounded up or down into whole numbers, although it still leaves a lot of "wiggle room."

It still seems a little funny to fail a formation check with experienced cavalry and a 90% chance to succeed, but I suppose at that point you also have to consider, in addition to multiplying rounded numbers, any special attributes the unit may have (or not have). And the effect of upgrades like Irregular Tactics, which affect some units' ability to make those checks.

Anyway - I'm more or less satisfied now because things don't seem as random now as they did at first.

Thanks to everybody! Now, if someone can just explain the Dark Arts of Trade in the advanced economy.....[:)]

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: Pistachio
Now, if someone can just explain the Dark Arts of Trade in the advanced economy.....[:)]

What is the trouble you have with it?
Kinda hard to help out from that comment [;)]

Terje

[Pistachio]

Well it was sort of a joke - a cover for the fact that I find the game very challenging! Basically I can't ever seem to make money and am always chasing off after revolts (Russia). In other words, I find it hard to have enough troops and also have a good economy. And I always seem to get into a furball with the AI who has four armies with 200k in each. It's a fun game, I'm just not very good at it! I'll post about trade in a new thread.