real sniper base chance

[Five_of_Swords]

can someone tell me the real base chance that a sniper will hit something? From some testing ive noticed that the base chance given by the comp is often very, very wrong (96% chance listed but average hit in about 1 in 10 tries)
seems important to know this stuff if you are wondering if its work the risk of possibly exposing your sniper for the chance of taking out a near dead hmg, for example.

[vahauser]

Five_of_Swords,
 
The base chance is exactly that--the base chance.  It is modified by a variety of factors: terrain, smoke, enemy experience, sniper leader rating, sniper experience, etc.  The actual final percentage to hit the target is the base chance modified by the other factors.  However, my experience is that the higher the experience of the sniper, then the more often I'm willing to take the shot.  Why? Because an elite sniper is very difficult to spot which means that he is much less likely to suffer return fire, and even if he is shot at by return fire, his high skill gives him a much better chance to survive the return fire.
 
So, if you have an elite sniper, then you are pretty safe when taking the shot.  Low-quality snipers are much more vulnerable (and they don't hit as often, either).
 
P.S.  I posted another reply to your PzIIIe thread just now.

[JEB Davis]

ORIGINAL: vahauser
Low-quality snipers are much more vulnerable (and they don't hit as often, either).

But they still are flesh and blood, and have families to return to after the war, so don't throw their lives away needlessly.

[Five_of_Swords]

I think the base chance accounts for terrain. (A close by unit in rough hex often shows less base hit chance than a further unit on open ground) With units other than snipers the base value tends to be relatively close to the actual value, somewhat lower if you have high experience...but its ballpark correct. With snipers, it is not ballpark correct. The base chance given is very often more than 70% but sniper rarely has more than about 50% to hit in my experience, even elite snipers. But sometimes they will always miss something given very high hit chance while other times they hit more often on average something with like 10%. Something is messed up with snipers. I guess they were nerfed or something in prior patches but they forgot to fix the base hit chance.

[JEB Davis]

ORIGINAL: Five_of_Swords

Something is messed up with snipers.

I disagree.

You need to keep in mind that a "hit" does not mean an automatic casualty. So your sniper may be "hitting" the target unit, but the damage caused by the sniper's weapon may not be sufficient to cause a casualty in many instances. The hit may cause only suppression, in the same way that firing any other infantry weapon can.

[Five_of_Swords]

ah...right..maybe thats it. I didnt realize that a hit in infantry did not = a kill. I thought the kill value listed on weapons was only to indicate possibility of more than one kill per hit, and how many.