Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel

[Local Yokel]

The end of another month, and the end of the first full year of the war. As usual, here are some posts showing some of the month's developments.

First, a summary of the economy, and details of available aircraft/engine production facilities. The HI pool has just passed the 800,000 mark, but resource stocks are dropping away faster than I would like. I should like to build a reserve of resources in Japan to meet the lean times ahead, but can only do so by cutting back resource consumption through reductions made to current production levels.

The supply position is better than the figure appearing, as more than 250,000 units are in transit aboard ship and not counted here.

I have slightly increased the number of factories manufacturing Aichi Atsuta engines to 28. There's a modest pool approaching 400 of these, but the pool is going to diminish rapidly as soon as the D4Y Suisei begins production on 1 Jan 43. The 88 D4Y factories ready to go will be supplemented by another 58 factories as soon as D3A production converts. The resulting factory total should yield a production of between 120 and 140 new carrier bombers during Jan 43, the idea being that all six large fleet carriers' air wings will be able to re-equip with the new machine by middle/end Feb 1943, by which time the B6N Tenzan will also be coming into service in quantity.

[Local Yokel]

Whilst on the subject of aircraft, here's an extract from my Tracker display of pilots. This shows pilots with experience at 70, but the significance lies in the position of the slider. This indicates that somewhere between 75% and 80% of all Japanese pilots have an experience level of 70 or better, with most of the remainder training hard. I estimate that pilots having an experience level of 80 or better account for between 45% and 50% of all pilots. I am working hard at conserving and increasing my quality aircrew; this shot gives one basis for assessing whether I am succeeding.

[Local Yokel]

Next, the Tracker view of the economy flowchart. Theoretically there is now scope for a small increase in HI that could be sustained by current resource and oil production levels. This is due to the continuing repairs made to resource centres damaged at Soerabaja. However, that small margin of surplus would soon disappear if a few attacks were to be made on resource centres, some of which are within Allied heavy bomber range but, surprisingly, remain untouched.

Next month the plan is to make further cutbacks in armament production (stocks still rising) and merchant shipbuilding. There are some big cargo ships in an advanced state which could stopped now and restarted to meet losses quickly when these begin to rise, whilst vehicle production needs to grow to accomodate introduction of the Type 3 tank.

[Local Yokel]

Finally, the Intelligence Summary screen for December 1942.

The bad news is that Japanese Base points declined by 82. Presumably the principal reason for this was the loss of Luganville which was captured on 11 December. No surprise there, Luganville's loss was inevitable as soon as Efate had been taken and built up as a base for Allied air power, and I made no serious attempt to contest this.

Aircraft losses have been somewhat higher than in November, with the balance of advantage still going to Japan. I am still delivering occasional raids against those of my opponent's airfields that appear to be overcrowded. These still yield a modest but useful crop of aircraft destroyed on the ground, and hopefully come as a surprise. One such raid was launched against Dacca using Type 1 Rikko units assembled at Rangoon. The Rikkos were re-dispersed away from Rangoon as soon as the strike had been flown. This was fortunate, since the following day a large number of Allied heavies launched a counter strike against Rangoon. They were met by a strong contingent of Japanese fighters that made repeated attacks against a force flying beyond escort range. Much to my surprise all Allied aircraft were turned back!

The Japanese suffered the loss of three submarines in their efforts to inflict casualties upon the Luganville invasion convoys, but nevertheless managed to score a couple of times. The Rikko attacks from Noumea and Lunga were more effective in this respect, and are the single largest factor in Allied ship losses for the month.

The best feature of the month was the extent of the LCU losses inflicted. These reflect the successful conclusion of operations at Kaifeng and in Northern Australia previously reported. On the last day of the month the extremely strong Chinese force at Liuchow attacked the Japanese divisions recently arrived in the city's vicinity. The attack cost the Chinese 5337 casualties and 146 out of the 442 guns employed. The Japanese lost 538 men and 8 guns.

[Grotius]

Thank you for a very enjoyable and readable AAR. Is your opponent posting here? He's had some tough losses, but I'm glad to see he's hanging in there.

I'm impressed by the high quality of your pilots. How are you training them? And how have you been "conserving" them, as you put it?

[Local Yokel]

Grotius, you're most welcome!

My opponent Cantona2 is indeed posting on occasion, and his AAR can be found at Fire Across the Pacific. This actually started as a joint AAR, but we agreed to diverge about 2 pages in, hence there are some posts from me in the war's early days. The impression I get is that my worthy foe has been using experience gained in our match to beat up poor Herbie on occasion!

I suspect my pilot training and 'conservation' arrangements are entirely conventional. So far reinforcement units have been arriving with experience levels usually in the mid-forties, and these I give intensive training missions until experience rises to around 58-60. For 27- and 36-plane units I also try to assign a leader with high inspiration, and a high air rating so far as this is consistent with the leader being suited to the kind of group concerned (i.e. a bomber unit gets a leader who is 'best qualified to lead a bomber formation').

Once the unit's experience approaches 60 it gets posted to what amounts to operational training in China. Almost invariably this consists of airfield attack missions over as short a range as feasible, so as to minimise operational losses. I also try to keep a few small but high experience fighter units at the training bases in China, as I make it a rule that no strike flies without escort. This maximises the proportion of rookies flying airfield attack but offers some safeguard against ambush by the AVG, whose sub-units occasionally appear over my training targets. The training missions I assume also have some use as a means of burning enemy supplies at the attacked bases, so the targets chosen generally reflect my current ground objectives.

These methods have proved highly effective in raising the experience of carrier aircrew in particular, for these units seem to gain experience quicker than others. For example, the air groups from Junyo and Hiyo underwent a long working up spell at Kaifeng. When re-embarked, none of the six groups making up the two hikotai had an experience level of less than 80 - better than their colleagues in CarDiv 5.

As to conservation, I try to tailor air missions to the forecast weather so as to keep operational losses in check generally, and I assiduously rest and rotate units to keep fatigue levels low. Currently I estimate I have over 90% of my aircrew at a fatigue level in single figures. Only 4 units have fatigue levels of 20 or greater, and these are now being rested.

Another factor probably at work in pilot preservation is my reluctance to take the air battle over enemy lines, since hopefully this will lead to a larger proportion of my shot down crew avoiding death or capture. Obviously this is a practice from which I have to depart at times, on the basis that the occasional attack on the poorly defended or overcrowded enemy bases will force him to keep a proportion of his fighters on CAP, and thus unavailable to escort his blasted bombers.

In the final analysis I strongly suspect that the biggest influence on my low level of quality aircrew loss is the nature of the mod itself. This is a Nik Mod game, and it is noticeably less bloody in the air warfare department than stock, at least. Added to this I think we have both been playing fairly conservatively (in my case by choice), and it will be interesting to see whether my approach will yield a large body of high experience crews that can be thrown in en masse when 'der grosse Schlag' comes to the Pacific.

[Grotius]

Thanks for the reply. I'll be sure to have a peek at Cantona's parallel AAR.

Thanks also for the info on training. I was especially interested in your comments on leadership. I'm afraid I've been neglecting leadership of my air groups; I get lazy about it.

When you say you give units "intensive" training missions, I assume that means the "Training" mission itself. I gather this facet of this game is undergoing some sort of change in AE, but I forget what.

Anyway, I'll get out of the way now so that you can get on with your AAR. Again, it's a great read! [:)]

[Local Yokel]

Grotius, sorry, should have made it clear that I did indeed mean the training mission itself, which I set to 100% (90% for reinforcement fighter units). I get the impression that the rate at which the rookies gain experience can be significantly accelerated by the assignment of a good leader, so this is worth doing to reduce the time taken to get them through basic and into operational training.

Meanwhile, in other news, 1st January 1943 rolled round and with it auto-victory for Japan with a points ratio in the region of 4.88 to 1, I believe.

I'm pleased to report that my opponent is happy to continue the game, so the struggle continues. I am told that turns are taking a bit longer to reach me due to the massive number of Allied units with which he now has to deal. Nothing like a bit of psy-ops - bring 'em on, say I! [:'(]

[Grotius]

Grats on the auto-victory! And I'm glad to hear the game will go on. Will continue to follow with interest.

[Local Yokel]

It's the 30 Dec 1942 turn and I get an unpleasant shock as I routinely load up Decoder and look at Japanese oil production. What the hell happened here?! A drop in daily production of somewhere between 5000 and 10000 points! Ah well, not to worry, it's probably a momentary blip due to some production tweak I've made.

But the production loss continues. Now it's the 3 Jan 1943 turn and there's been no recovery. So what is going on?

Well, the answer is that Palembang's 1200 oil centres, captured without damage many months ago, have continued to churn the oil out, and have done so faster than I can move it back to the HI. Palembang was captured with about 500,000 oil points, and try as I might I couldn't reduce the level of accumulated (and growing) oil stocks.

Palembang's current holding of oil is 721792 (3 Jan 43). Those 1200 oil centres generate 7200 oil points per day. I calculate that the last day the Palembang holding stood below 720000 was the 29 Dec 1942. On 30 Dec the holding went over 720000 - and production dried up.

So it seems that for the SRA oil centres at least this event confirms that there's a local storage limit of 100 times a day's production: the local tanks are then full and they stop pumping until you create some more storage space by taking the stuff away.

Problem is, there's just not enough tanker bottoms available for this - not if you're going to keep the tanks at Truk and the like topped up with enough Bunker C. This is a dimension to the oil management problem I'd not expected, and I'd be glad to hear any suggestions for overcoming it.

I'll add that I am impressed by the way CHS brings home the extent to which shortage of bottoms was the real bottleneck in the Japanese oil problem.

[heenanc]

I appologies I posted here instead of the oil storage thread by accident sorry

[Local Yokel]

South Seas Smash and Grab - Prelude

Following the capture of Espiritu Santo by US forces on 11 December 1942, Imperial General HQ was obliged to reconsider its defensive dispositions in the South Pacific. As the Japanese had anticipated, air and shipping facilities at both Luganville and Port Vila on Efate expanded rapidly, and Japanese intelligence officers noted with concern a massive influx of aircraft to these bases. As expected, it was not long before the enemy’s four-engined bombers began to strike at Japanese positions, both on New Caledonia and, more tentatively, at bases in the southern Solomons.

But the real jolt to Japanese complacency came with a pulverising bombardment of Noumea by four US battleships on the night of 11 January 1943:

Naval bombardment of Noumea, at 66,117

Japanese aircraft
no flights

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3 Zero: 3 destroyed
A6M2 Zero: 5 destroyed
A6M3a Zero: 5 destroyed

Japanese Ships
AK Boston Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
AK Buyo Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
AK Tonegawa Maru, Shell hits 1, on fire
AK Nichiren Maru, Shell hits 1

Allied Ships
BB Indiana
BB Arizona
BB Nevada
BB Maryland

Japanese ground losses:
2580 casualties reported
Guns lost 16

Airbase hits 7
Airbase supply hits 6
Runway hits 78
Port hits 1
Port supply hits 1

Since the Japanese commitment to defence of this furthest flung extremity of their empire was already being scaled down, the land attack aircraft based on Noumea that previously deterred such bombardments had been re-based at Lunga and Rabaul. In any event damage done by the B-24’s to Noumea’s complement of Type 2 flying boats had so attenuated search capabilities that the bombardment group’s approach went wholly undetected.

The bombardment gave IGHQ notice that New Caledonia had become untenable, absent a commitment of forces the Japanese were not prepared to make. It had served a useful purpose during the battle for Efate, making that island’s gain a bloody exercise for the Allies. Now was the time to pull back and seek the opportunity for inflicting a similar blow if and when the Occidentals made the jump to the Solomons or New Guinea. To do so, however, involved finding a means for extracting such high value units as the South Seas Detachment at Noumea from under the nose of vastly superior American air power.

Even as 1st Mobile Force’s heavy carriers drew away westwards from the position in which they had covered the re-conquest of Abemama, V Adm Inoue’s planners at Truk had devised a scheme for the evacuation of forces from Noumea and cut orders for the ships and task groups assigned to its execution.

The plan devised was straightforward enough in concept. Fortuitously, a significant number of Japan’s fastest merchant ships were currently engaged in reinforcing garrisons throughout the Solomon chain, and so available for the evacuation exercise. These would be despatched south, and would make a high speed run into Noumea’s harbour under the cover of such fighter protection as could be made available. During the hours of darkness the ships would load so many of the forces earmarked for evacuation as was possible, and immediately beat a retreat, trusting in part to speed and luck in order to evade US anti-shipping strikes.

A direct passage for these ships into Noumea via New Caledonia’s east shore was plainly going to be suicidal, so the task forces involved were instead routed well to the west of the island, hoping to remain undiscovered by Allied search aircraft. The two groups of fast merchantmen involved would be covered by an ASW group that included several APD’s. On arrival at Noumea the ASW group would divide and load the bulk of two naval construction battalions, whilst the big transports embarked Horii’s South Seas Detachment and 24th Special Base Force. 86th Naval Garrison Unit had drawn the short straw and would remain in situ, together with fragments of the evacuated units that would hopefully maintain an illusion that the garrison had not been reduced. Given that the airfield at Noumea had been rendered unusable by the US bombardment, the evolution would have to be covered from the west by 1st Mobile Force, which would throughout strive to remain outside effective strike range of American aircraft.

Japanese concealment measures remained effective until 16th January. On this day a PBY first glimpsed the fast merchantmen some 360 miles NNE of its likely base on Norfolk Island. At this time the transports were on a south-easterly course:

(PBY Catalina sighting report: 2 Japanese ships at 62,117 , Speed 18 , Moving Southeast)

Now the Japanese sought to inject a little confusion into the minds of their opponents. Though they were now less than 300 miles from the ultimate destination at Noumea, Inoue ordered the transports to maintain a south-westerly heading, with the intention of suggesting that they constituted an invasion force aimed at Norfolk Island. Such an impression would hopefully be strengthened by the activities of the Tainan Kokutai’s reconnaissance component based at Koumac, which had been making daily overflights of Norfolk Island throughout the previous week.

In reality this aerial reconnaissance effort was primarily intended as preparation for a bombardment mission aimed at shutting down Norfolk’s search capability, thereby assisting the transports’ retirement from Noumea. However, any uncertainty as to their intentions that resulted from such reconnaissance would be a welcome bonus for the Japanese.

At nightfall on 16th January R Adm Tanaka’s ASW group was strengthened by the addition of cruisers Aoba, Furutaka and Kuma and detached from 1st Mobile Force with orders to join the transports still steaming south-west towards Norfolk. By midday on 17th January his force was expected to be some 240 miles north of the island and poised to make its bombardment run.

On the following day, 17th January, both Tanaka and the transports stood within one day’s sailing of Norfolk and still headed towards it when they were found again by PBY’s:

(PBY Catalina sighting report: 3 Japanese ships at 61,119 , Speed 8 , Moving Southwest
PBY Catalina sighting report: 3 Japanese ships at 61,119 , Speed 13 , Moving Southwest)

Shortly thereafter another PBY snooped 1st Mobile Force, also running south-westerly and trailing the transports by 180 miles. Aboard cruiser Tone, ratings monitoring Allied R/T transmissions heard aircrew reporting the discovery of enemy carriers:

(PBY Catalina sighting report: 2 Japanese ships at 60,116 , Speed 29 , Moving Southwest)

With Dai-ichi Kido Butai revealed, there was a risk of it having to make a rapid withdrawal. For this reason, Tanaka was ordered to maintain his current position, where he was to be joined the following day by Nagumo’s carriers. Instead of a bombardment from the minimal force of Tanaka’s two 8” cruisers, Norfolk would be hit by carrier air. From this location, too, the fighters of Kaga’s Kansen-tai would be optimally positioned to cover the transports’ high speed run into Noumea as they back-tracked rapidly to the east.

In retrospect it seems that at this juncture Japanese deception measures began to bite. The Allied command in the South Pacific evidently concluded that the Japanese transports did indeed contain an invasion force heading for a landing at Norfolk Island, and resolved to meet such a landing with a surface action task force of their own.

[Local Yokel]

The Smash: 18 January 1943

Although Kido Butai had laid its plan for a massive raid to eradicate the airfield at Norfolk, its aircraft retained naval forces as their primary strike targets, and on the morning of 18th January just such a target, in the shape of the ANZAC cruiser squadron, presented itself on a plate as it patrolled the approaches to Norfolk Island in expectation of the Japanese transports’ arrival.

But the transports were not at Norfolk. They had, instead, completed their planned high speed dash to Noumea. Here they were spotted by Efate’s Liberators and subjected to some largely ineffectual attacks during the course of 18th January, from which they received some shielding through the efforts of Lt Cdr Inano’s Model 22 Reisen, flying LRCAP over the harbour throughout the day:

(Raid 1)
Day Air attack on TF, near Noumea at 66,117

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 11

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 1 damaged

Japanese Ships
PG Takunan Maru #3
AK Nako Maru

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 12000 feet
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 12000 feet

(Raid 2)
Day Air attack on TF, near Noumea at 66,117

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 7

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 3
B-24D Liberator x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
APD Akikaze
AK Sasako Maru

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 12000 feet

(Raid 3)
Day Air attack on TF, near Noumea at 66,117

Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 7

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 3

No Japanese losses

No Allied losses

Japanese Ships
AK Kashii Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire (500lb bomb)

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 12000 feet

Meanwhile, from their position some 240 miles north of Norfolk, the carriers of Kido Butai began to send aloft a series of substantial strikes against the cruisers which, much to the surprise of the Japanese, had apparently been deployed to thwart a seaborne invasion of the island.

First carrier Soryu launched her carrier bombers and attack planes against Dutch patrol boat Bellatrix found on independent passage 180 miles to the west:

Day Air attack on TF at 59,120

Japanese aircraft
D3A2 Val x 21
B5N2 Kate x 21

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
PC Bellatrix, Bomb hits 7, on fire, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
3 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
1 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet

The five remaining carriers then launched a massive strike against the ANZAC task force, unsuccessfully opposed by Kittyhawks of the RNZAF’s 16 Squadron, and Tomahawks of the 43rd Fighter Group:

Day Air attack on TF, near Norfolk Island at 60,123

Japanese aircraft
D3A2 Val x 125
A6M3a Zero x 57
B5N2 Kate x 104

Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk I x 11
P-40B Tomahawk x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
D3A2 Val: 3 destroyed, 6 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 1 damaged
B5N2 Kate: 1 destroyed, 12 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
Kittyhawk I: 8 destroyed
P-40B Tomahawk: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Canberra, Bomb hits 22, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CA Australia, Bomb hits 22, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage
CL Leander, Bomb hits 11, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
CL Raleigh, Bomb hits 5, Torpedo hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
DD Le Triomphant, Bomb hits 2
DD Voyager

Aircraft Attacking:
7 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
2 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
7 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
2 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
3 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
8 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
2 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
8 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
2 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
8 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
3 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet

No doubt this strike sufficed to destroy the heavier ships of the Allied force, but the Japanese were not yet done, and during the afternoon they despatched two further strikes against its remnants:

(Raid 1)
Day Air attack on TF, near Norfolk Island at 60,123

Japanese aircraft
D3A2 Val x 18
A6M3a Zero x 64

Allied aircraft
P-40B Tomahawk x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
P-40B Tomahawk: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
CL Leander, on fire, heavy damage
CA Canberra, on fire, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet

(Raid 2)
Day Air attack on TF, near Norfolk Island at 60,123

Japanese aircraft
D3A2 Val x 59
B5N2 Kate x 120

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 4 damaged

Allied Ships
DD Stuart, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
DD Le Triomphant, Bomb hits 6, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Voyager, Torpedo hits 2, on fire, heavy damage
DD Arunta, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage

Aircraft Attacking:
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
2 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
3 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
1 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
5 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
2 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
9 x D3A2 Val bombing at 2000 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet
4 x B5N2 Kate launching torpedoes at 200 feet

From the Allied perspective the only bright note in this disastrous day was the proximity of the stricken warships to Norfolk Island. As their vessels go down in fire and ruin, the crews are, it seems, able to abandon ship in orderly fashion, and mercifully are able to come to shore at Norfolk, no doubt reflecting on the wisdom of their commanders in sending them to so exposed a patrol beat after the presence of the enemy carriers had been revealed.

So much for the ‘smash’. Now the Japanese awaited with trepidation the outcome of their efforts to grab their forces on New Caledonia.

[Local Yokel]

It’s occurred to me that Kido Butai’s strikes at Norfolk may well represent the swan song of the Type 99 carrier bombers as shipboard strike aircraft in this game. Provided I can get the force safely back to Truk I expect to be able to upgrade all carrier groups of these aircraft to D4Y Suisei in quick succession. The number of the new bombers in the pool stands at 100, and they’re producing at the rate of 4.87 per day.

In this mod the Suisei enjoys a 9 knot (mph?) speed advantage over the F4F. So when the Grummans attack it will likely pay the dive bomber pilots accelerate away from them!

The B6N Tenzan, due to start producing in 12 days’ time, doesn’t enjoy the same speed advantage but can lug a torpedo out to 300 miles. We shall see whether that can be turned to good use.

Meanwhile, back to the seas south and west of New Caledonia.

The Grab

A useful side effect of the erroneous Allied assumption that a landing on Norfolk Island was imminent was the departure towards Norfolk of the submarine that had lurked for many days in the approaches to Noumea. Thus the way was clear for Japanese ships to enter harbour unmolested. One day later the submarine would be back, but by then the Japanese had gone again.

Arrived at Noumea, the transports of the evacuation task forces weathered the sporadic anti-ship strikes mounted by Allied air forces based in the New Hebrides, and immediately began embarkation of the ground forces they were to lift from the island.

Careful calculations went into the loading and grouping of the fifteen large merchant ships that evaded damage from US bombers. This led to division of the evacuation force into three groups of five, allocation being decided by each vessel’s maximum speed. Thus one group could maintain a maximum of 22 knots, one 20 knots and the third 18 knots.

The best part of two construction battalions were embarked in the accompanying destroyers and APD’s, some of which were then reconstituted into an ASW group that included the remaining escorts. Each of the big ship groups received a modest integral escort capable of maintaining the group’s maximum speed.

Noumea had already been shown to be well within effective strike range of New Hebrides-based B-24’s and B-25’s. However, it was hoped that by limiting to the minimum the period in which the ships were loading, they could get far enough away from Noumea to evade US strikes on 19th January. Nevertheless, it seemed likely that the 18 knot group would remain within normal B-24 range. Fighter elements of the Kanoya Kokutai were therefore flown into Koumac so that, in conjunction with the Akagi kansen-tai they could fly CAP over this group as it steamed away from Noumea. As a precautionary measure, a single chutai of carrier fighters from Hiryu was allocated a like role over the 20 knot group.

As a lure for Allied bombers, Captain Sugisaka was persuaded to take damaged Kashii Maru northwest along New Caledonia’s coast and out past Frenchmen’s Reef. His instructions were not to worry too much about the smoke rising from the unextinguished fires on his ship, and to take as long as possible getting sunk: any distraction he caused was considered worth the price he was likely to pay…

Fortune smiled upon the Japanese enterprise. For the first time in several days not a single B-24 raided Noumea, suggesting that they were searching in vain for naval targets. Submarine Narwhal set up on Yamazaki’s transports. Perhaps because these were moving at 22 knots the torpedoes missed:

Sub attack at 62,118

Japanese Ships
AK Sado Maru
DD Arashio

Allied Ships
SS Narwhal

Sugisaka, lucky man, was apparently never seen. Kashii Maru may yet make port in the Solomons.

By dusk on the 19th the two fastest transport groups stood 300 miles west of Noumea, with Tamaura’s 18 knot ships, containing the bulk of 24th Special Base Force, about 100 miles behind. Norfolk Island’s PBY’s had maintained their fix on 1st Mobile Force, now drawing away to the north west, but it seems that the transports were never spotted. Although still in peril from the press of submarines milling about to the north of Norfolk, they have successfully lifted the majority of both the base force troops and South Seas Detachment from under the enemy’s nose, and these units now stand a real chance of being re-deployed to a position where they can better serve in the Empire’s defence.

[brisd]

I've just completed reading your entire AAR and I am very, very impressed!  Your tactical and strategic skills are matched by your superior writing and graphics.  I've learned much by studying the economic and production charts too.  Thanks very much for a superb effort, I most highly recommend this thread as the latest example of WITP's superb AAR's.  [&o] And congrats on the Smash and Grap operation, very well executed!

[Local Yokel]

Thanks, brisd, glad you're enjoying it! I'm also glad to hear that the details posted of the Japanese economy are valuable, though I think it's fair to point out that I probably enjoyed exceptionally good fortune in taking the SRA with so little damage. I suspect this has given me greatly enhanced basis for driving the production beast. This would have been a very different game if Palembang had taken, say, 50% damage.

I had my doubts about whether to describe the Noumea evacuation - 'our forces were not spotted/attacked' doesn't make for a rivetting read. However, I always regarded this as a very high risk operation in which I expected (and was willing) to lose a number of valuable merchant ships, and I thought there might be some interest in the deception measures I had taken to minimise that risk. Also, I was interested in finding out what could be done with big, fast ships rather than destroyer transports and felt the results might be of interest to others.

The destruction of the ANZAC force came as an unexpected bonus to spice up the account. I'd expected PT boats to be deployed at Norfolk, but cruisers - never!

[Local Yokel]

South Seas Smash and Grab - Postscript

The homeward voyage of the forces covering the Noumea transports is a tense and incident-filled affair. There are plenty of US submarines prowling the Coral Sea, and, try as they might, the Japanese are unable to evade them all:

21 Jan 43:

Sub attack at 59,108

Japanese Ships
AV Sagara Maru, Torpedo hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
SS Grampus

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack at 59,108

Japanese Ships
PG Takunan Maru #3
PG Shinko Maru #2

Allied Ships
SS Grampus

23 Jan 43:

Sub attack at 60,103

Japanese Ships
CA Furutaka, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Yugiri
DD Murakumo
DD Asashio
DD Onami
DD Susuzuki
DD Teruzuki

Allied Ships
SS Wahoo, hits 2, on fire

Sagara Maru, proceeding independently as a picket, was inevitably vulnerable to an attack such as this. I had hoped she might make Shortlands or Tulagi, but with engines barely able to propel her there was no real hope of this, and she had to be scuttled 200 miles west of Rennell.

Furutaka, tough old bird, has not only reduced the rate at which her flotation damage was increasing, but has even repaired system damage sufficiently to increase the speed of her dash for the Japanese forward repair base at Shortlands, where four repair ships await her. There's an ominous cluster of submarine sightings in her vicinity, but two ASW groups await her arrival at Shortlands, now but 60 miles distant. If the US boats try to catch her in the anchorage they are assured of a hot reception.

Meanwhile, on 25 January 1943, having spotted what looked like a bombardment group setting up for another run on Noumea, the Japanese command ordered KD7 class boat I-177 into what was hope to be an intercept position astride the enemy's likely retirement route. Instead, I-177 hits the jackpot:

Sub attack at 69,118

Japanese Ships
SS I-177, hits 5

Allied Ships
CV Wasp, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Walke
DD O'Brien
DD Russell

[Local Yokel]

Both Jonathan and I have been really busy for some time, so that we've only been able to get through a turn every other day. Thus it's taken a long time to get to the end of January 1943, but the game is no less interesting as the Allies build up for their counter-offensive whilst Japan prepares to face the coming storm.

I'll post my usual set of end-of-month updates, starting with a summary of the state of the economy and aircraft production. The drive for a million HI points has almost reached its target, and I shall then have to see what can be done about conservation of dwindling resource stocks.

Also worth noting is the production of 155 D4Y Suisei during the course of the month, and the fact that these have already been introduced into squadron service. Whilst Kido Butai was still some days distant from its home anchorage the kanbaku-tai of Akagi and Kaga flew ahead to Truk so as to get under way the process of re-equipping with the new carrier bomber. Both these units completed conversion on the last day of the month and have already been re-embarked. As the conversion was going so rapidly I felt I could also safely convert the Type 99's aboard Hiryu and Soryu to the new bomber, but as a precaution against emergencies I had pre-positioned two other carrier-capable Type 99 units at Truk. This would have permitted the force to field a full dive bomber complement had it been called upon to sortie whilst conversion was in progress.

Of course, all this conversion activity may prove to be a complete waste of time if/when the Allied carriers get the drop on me and Kido Butai's airgroups get butchered by flak and next generation American fighters. Still, I'd like to fight at least one more battle with the carrier forces at something approaching parity, and reckon that, as is so often the case, this is a game where you make your own luck. This is how I try to do it.

[Local Yokel]

Next the WitP economy model as shown in Tracker.

With a healthy armament pool I was able to make a further reduction in armament production whilst increasing vehicle production for reasons on which I'll elaborate in another post. Merchant shipyard construction has also been reduced to the lowest possible level - here the Tracker data has been especially helpful in making it possible to keep the number of merchant construction points generated each day almost exactly in balance with the number required. Warship construction remains a high consumer of HI points since I am continuing my efforts to bring Taiho into commission in early May. I'm anxious to do this because I can ultimately pair her with Akagi, thus releasing Kaga to form the nucleus of a slower CV task group. I find that Kaga's comparatively slow speed can operate as a significant brake upon carrier operations and pairing Taiho with Akagi is the way I shall try to get round this.

[Local Yokel]

The next shot gives some interesting detail on the way that vehicle production works, because the only vehicle that is currently drawing from the vehicle points pool seems to be the new Type 3 tank. The extract from the Decoder graph shows how the appearance of the two tank divisions in 1942 made substantial inroads into the vehicle points pool, much as expected, and then shows how, from the start of January 1943, points have been accumulated over a period of 5 to 6 days before being converted into Chi-Nu production, some of which goes to regiments set to upgrade, whilst the remainder goes into the pool. So far I have been able to convert 2 regiments in N Australia and one in Burma, where their superiority over the Type 1's they replace can be used to best effect against the Allied tanks they will face in these theatres. Against the Chinese pretty much anything will do, whilst against the Soviets come August Storm... well, not a lot can be done to counter JS II's and III's, regardless of what the Japanese do in the AFV department.[:(]