Nanshin! or the ramblings of Local Yokel

[Local Yokel]

Sad to say, we're only just past mid-May 43 in game time, so the end of month reports won't be along for a bit. Let this be by way of interim update.

Bay of Bengal

I shipped 23rd Mixed Bde to the Nicobars, and they didn't have much trouble eradicating the Bde Gp from 14th Indian Div that landed there.

Meanwhile, I've shipped 21 ID, a tank rgt and a heavy artillery rgt into Sabang, and am in the process of pulling 23rd Mixed across from the Nicobars with the intention of eliminating the Sabang invaders too. Superficially it looks as though I can muster a 4 to 1 AV advantage for this, which ought to be enough, but much may depend on how effectively I managed to write down his stores when he landed, and how understrength landing casualties have left him. Once 23rd Mixed is across I shall have a division, two brigades, a Naval Guard unit, arty rgt and a tank rgt against a division, a bde gp and an Indian Fd Arty Rgt. The difference between us should lie in the fact that my units are at full strength whilst his should be depleted by landing casualties.

If I could pull this off at Sabang, it would deprive him of the best part of one and two-thirds of his quality assault divisions, but the real plum would be to eliminate the Andaman invaders - destruction of that 90-experience AIF division would put the icing on the cake but may not prove an easy proposition.

China

I very quickly gave up the idea of bouncing the river NE of Hengchow: the unit assigned to this was moving at 1 mile per day, and would have been left in a highly vulnerable position. In fact, the Japanese axis of advance towards Changsha is 'orribly exposed to a flank attack from across the river, so I have left sizeable forces in place to guard the river line against such an attack. There are five Chinese units immediately SW of Ichang that could make such a move, but if they want to make an assault crossing of the river they are now going to get a hot reception.

The taking of Yenan has released two infantry divisions and two rgts of artillery from NE China, but they will take some time to make their way down through Hankow to a position where they can assist the drive on Changsha. The other good news here is that China will be reinforced by five further divisions in as many weeks (as illustrated below, as at 6-7 May 43), most of them well placed to assist in the Central Chinese offensive. That may well prompt me to buy out the Tank Div asigned to CEA, and upgrade its AFV's to Type 3's so that it can then be redeployed to...

...Burma!

Exactly as predicted, a massive force has just crossed the Chindwin between Mandalay and Myitkyina, and will doubtless arrive in Mandalay in the very near future. I am extremely glad that I saw this one coming and avoided isolation of the defenders at Myitkyina. However, the battle for Mandalay is one I am by no means certain to win. It is fully fortified and I have two and two thirds divisions in place to defend it. They are high quality divisions, but completely under the cosh of substantial Allied air forces based at Imphal and other bases in Assam. Very shortly I am going to have to make a decision on whether to commit the IJAAF to Mandalay's defence in a big way. I am reluctant to do so because this will inevitably lead to an attritional battle that will frustrate my objective of preserving the quality army fighter pilots until they can take advantage of the Type 4 Hayate - not due to enter service for another 9 months. I am concerned that the Allied bomber effort, if unopposed, may so disrupt its defenders as to cost me Mandalay, and the choice between preservation of pilot quality in the entire IJAAF and the holding of this base is, I think, a critical one for me to make. I have another high quality infantry division and another tank rgt en route to Burma, but this still looks like a battle that will be touch and go.

Northern Australia

Just to make my joy complete, there's a substantial force of about a dozen units again heading north through the desert towards Daly Waters. This time it looks as though he's bringing enough manoeuvre units to threaten my LOC and pre-empt the kind of sally attack that succeeded against him last time, but once again, despite my defences at Daly Waters, Katherine and Darwin all being at level 9, I'm not confident of being able to hold. This time he's bringing SW Pacific command with him (no doubt for the supply draw), so it appears he means business here.

Pacific? [>:][>:][>:]

Taiho has commissioned and is with the fleet! That's the good news, but the bad news is that with a capacity of 74 she won't take the full air group off another fleet carrier. My plan had been to rotate another carrier's air group into her whilst the 'giving' carrier returned to Japan for upgrade and Taiho's organic air group worked up in China (where it is gaining experience nicely). That isn't quite going to work, so I going to need to adopt some other way of getting Taiho to sea with maximum punch available.

[BigBadWolf]

That's a lot of reinforcements coming to China. Why not transfer some more units to Burma? Also, could you tell us effect all those divisions have on your pools? I'm very curious about that.

[Local Yokel]

That's a very good question about the effect on the pools. Currently there are 51772 point in the armament pot, and 3454 in the vehicle. It will be interesting to see whether the first of the reinforcement divs makes a big draw against the pool, and it may be a good idea for me to switch some armament factories back on - only two are producing at the moment, so I am in a position to surge production if necessary.

The vehicle side is very healthy; I just upgraded the Kwantung Army's tank division to Type 3's but still have a healthy reserve stock of these in the pool. Of course, this then releases Type 1 medium tanks back to the pool, which in turn simplifies the process of upgrading the few tank regiments remaining that are equipped with Type 97's: the Chi-ha.

I'm certainly thinking of shifting the tank division attached to the China Army out of that theatre and into Burma, but this will take a little time however I go about it, as it will have to embark at Shanghai - can't move it to Canton/Hong Kong for embarkation.

[Local Yokel]

Almost two months have passed since my last post on this AAR, and on checking back I'm shocked to discover that since 1st October 2009 we have only managed to advance the game from 1st to 23rd May 1943 - 23 days in 3.5 months! I play quite slowly and carefully, and generally manage to rotate a turn in about 2 to 2.5 days, but recently my worthy foe's turn-round time seems to have become progressively longer - I've now been awaiting the next turn from him for almost a week. For this and other reasons I fear, therefore, that this particular game may be drawing to a close.

I should be sad to see this game come to an end, as it's been an enjoyable introduction for me to PBEM. I've spent the best part of 18 game months booting the Allies around the Pacific, and I'd thought the point had been reached at which superior weight of numbers were going to start to tell against me. Nevertheless, conservative player that I am, I'd built what seemed a fairly formidable set of defences around my perimeter, had my economy ticking over to my satisfaction, and was looking forward to seeing how effectively I could perform as a defender.

However, the pace of play has now dropped to so slow a level that I find myself losing 'situational awareness' in the game, to the extent that I would prefer to wrap it up now rather than let it drag on, unless my opponent can up his turn-rate.

If this game does end, I'm not sure what to do next. AE seems to be where most of the action is, but for various reasons I'm ambivalent towards it and have strong reservations about committing myself to an AE grand campaign. Then again, various things about the Pacific War prompt me to doubt that it's a good subject for my kind of wargame anyhow. So, although playing the game has caused me to expand enormously my knowledge of this part of World War 2, I might want to turn my hand to gaming some other comflict.

Whatever now happens, this game has been a good ride.

[Local Yokel]

Happily I can report that this game is still going forward, and the recent hiatus seems to have been due to an email failure, with a turn ending in the great internet bit bucket undelivered. And we have managed to up the turn rate somewhat, too. We’ve still to reach the end of May 1943, but I have had a minor aerial success in Burma, as reported below.

Mandalay Area, May 1943

The first three weeks of May 1943 sees repeated attacks at low to medium altitude against the Japanese ground forces at Mandalay. These are carried out by the host of bombers now available to the Allies in Assam. Many are Liberators, but B-25 Mitchells apparently based at Imphal are bearing their share. Intimidated by the bombers’ numeric preponderance, the Japanese withdraw all but some reconnaissance machines from their forward airfields, concentrating their fighter strength in the Rangoon-Moulmein area where the bombers would be beyond effective escort reach.

However, at the headquarters of Lt Gen Homma’s 3rd Hikoshidan at Mandalay it gradually dawns on the Japanese that their opposing commanders have no immediate intention of rendering unusable the Japanese forward strips. They observe, too, the consistent operational pattern of a daily sweep of Mandalay by the Allied fighters that precedes the bomber incursions, leaving the latter unescorted. The sweeps comprise mixed gaggles of Hurricane II’s and the recently introduced Spitfire VB’s flying from the Imphal-Kohima area, usually accompanied by P-38G’s of the AVG. The absence of variation in the Allied operational pattern suggests to the Japanese an opportunity for ambush, and in the third week of May additional fighter sentais of 3rd and 6th Hikoshidan are surreptitiously moved north to the aerodromes around Rangoon and Moulmein in readiness for forward deployment en masse.

To the enormous frustration of the Japanese day after day passes with no let up in the tropical downpour, their commanders becoming increasingly nervous of the risk of a strike against their crowded airfields in Southern Burma. On 25th May the rain at last abates somewhat, and the best part of six well-rested Sentoki Sentai disperse to the forward fields. Magwe takes 17 Type 3 Hien from the 19th Sentai, whilst the 21st’s Type 2 Shoki come forward to Lashio from Hanoi, where they are joined by a single Hien chutai from the 54th. The two remaining chutai from this unit go to Mandalay itself, where they are joined by the full strength of the 64th Sentai, flying Type 2’s. Finally Meiktila receives the 203rd Sentai, flying the Hien, together with the greater part of the 1st, equipped with Shoki. The plan is for a maximum effort defence of Mandalay from all four of these locations, with the Japanese hoping that the fly-in has gone undetected and that the fields at Magwe and Meiktila will not receive a hostile visit. Some fighters are retained at Lashio for its defence, as it too has received repeated visits from SEAC bombers throughout the preceding three weeks. In all, the Japanese muster 190 fighter aircraft at their forward fields. They estimate that, allowing for rotation of defending aircraft from remote fields, they will be able to put in the region of 100 fighters into the airspace over Mandalay to contest any Allied sweep on the 26th. Patrol heights are a problem: the Japanese place two chutai from the 54th at near maximum altitude, but the majority of aircraft patrol in a band between 8 and 15 thousand feet.

On the following day things go well for the Japanese from the outset. Their R/T monitors detect transmissions indicating that one unit of P-38’s has gone adrift and aborted its mission; this is thought to be one of the AVG’s squadrons. And the Japanese calculations prove remarkably accurate: when the 20 P-38’s of the AVG’s 3rd Squadron with 15 British Spitfires and Hurricanes arrive over Mandalay, they find themselves assailed by a great mass of 107 Japanese aircraft. The guns of the defending fighters may lack the punch of the Spitfire cannon, but the defenders’ three-to-one advantage soon begins to tell. The Hien and Shoki are being flown by determined and highly experienced pilots who are suffering little from fatigue, and their repeated firing passes inflict progressively greater damage on the Allied fighters. In due course, no less than 21 of the 35 British and American fighters are seen to fall as confirmed kills, whilst later intelligence suggests that two more P-38’s received sufficient damage to cause them to be written off.

05/26/43
Day Air attack on Mandalay , at 33,29
Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 54
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 53
Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb x 2
Spitfire Vb x 13
P-38G Lightning x 20
Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed, 11 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 1 destroyed, 12 damaged
Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb: 2 destroyed
Spitfire Vb: 7 destroyed
P-38G Lightning: 12 destroyed

As it happens, SEAC chooses not to send any bombers against Mandalay this day, but a twelve-strong Beaufighter sweep against Lashio sees one of its number shot down, whilst three bombing raids against that town’s defenders result in the loss of 2 Vengeance dive bombers at a cost of one Hien, which goes down, unusually, to defensive fire from a Beaufort. I.

Despite the apparent lack of success against Allied bombers, the Japanese are more than content with the results obtained. Some of the enemy’s best machines in the theatre have been met and bested by the Japanese fighters, and the loss of 60% of the attacking P-38’s is reckoned to be a severe blow to one of the enemy’s elite AVG squadrons. And with the loss of only three fighters in the main encounter, a loss ratio of 7:1 in the Japanese favour is entirely acceptable.

(The loss rate in this battle would be nothing out of the ordinary in stock, but in my experience of the CHS 157 (Nik Mod) game we are playing, knocking down this number of Allied fighters is exceptional)

[Local Yokel]

Phew! Our game has reached the end of May 1943 at last, so here is my usual set of end-of-month reports. For a change I will start with the Tracker view of the Japanese economy. Comparing this with the same view for end-April, this shows increases in global totals of oil, resources fuel and supplies, whilst the HI pool has received the addition of more than 100,000 points.

HI points are currently being added to the pool at the rate of about 2700-2800 per day. This is well short of the 4700-5000 point rate of addition when I was building the pool in Q4 of 1942, as I have switched a number of merchant shipyards back into production.

I have yet to commit myself to a plan for drawing down the cushion of HI points during the war’s concluding months, but am still trying to balance increases to the HI pool against resource consumption, so that there is no decline in total resources. I achieve this by shutting down a number of HI factories in Japan; currently I have 510 HI centres inactive, against 12541 centres actively producing. The limiting factor remains the rate at which resources become available for shipping back to Japan. There are no really big stockpiles in the SRA and this tends to produce a ‘just-in-time’ economic model, involving less than one month’s resource reserves being available to feed the HI centres in Japan at any time.

I’m not really operating the popular hub system in the SRA for assembling oil/resources to be shipped back to Japan. At the major resource generation centres I like to let at least 20000 units to accumulate so I have full loads for at least four 5000T+ cargo ships. Since it takes time for such quantities to accumulate, there tends to be quite an interval between resource convoys, but they start with a respectable load and grow substantially as they are joined by additional laden ships en route. This means that I can concentrate the ASW assets on relatively few large convoys, so that the big ones have at least two ASW groups escorting them throughout most of their voyage. I can get away with this for so long as I can operate within a safe perimeter, but a radical change of tactics will become necessary when big convoys get exposed to the risk of being caught by Allied carrier air.

[Local Yokel]

Next the Aircraft Production and Economy Summary. On the aero engine front, this shows that I am within two days of reaching my initial target number of Toyoda factories. I shall then need to decide what additional switchovers to make between the old Mitsubishi/Nakajima factories and their Nissan/Toyoda replacements. Currently only Raiden production is making a big draw against Nissan engine production, giving a healthy reserve of 270 of this machine. With 1200 Nissan engines in the pool, there should be no bottlenecks in production of aircraft using this engine. This should assist a rapid re-equipping of the Donryu sentai with Ki-67 Hiryu bombers, the only type other than the Raiden for which volume production of the Nissan is critical in 1944. Getting enough Toyoda engines is much more critical, as they have to power the Ki-84 Hayate, P1Y replacements for the Type 1 Rikko, all the N1K series navy fighters and the Ryusei: the next generation of carrier bombers and attack planes. Consequently I’m anxious to build a big pool of Toyodas ASAP.

[Local Yokel]

Next is a graphic extracted from Tracker showing new ship deliveries to the end of September 1943. This will give an idea of how I’m accelerating destroyers, kaibokan and the Chitose/Chiyoda light carrier conversions, as these may prove to be the last new carriers having a chance to make an impact. The only AK’s being built are the large 5000T design and the fast Akitsu Marus – everything else gets stopped as soon as it is about to start building. This reflects the shortcoming in CHS of Japan having far too many merchantmen; it’s a simple matter to find enough high capacity ships to shift resources out of the SRA faster than they are being generated there and still have ample merchant ships lying idle for troop redeployments. What the graphic doesn’t show is a modest number of 5000T ships halted at 1 day from completion; they are ready to be brought into commission at a moment’s notice if a crisis occurs.

[Local Yokel]

Whilst on the subject of ships, here are details of both sides’ shipping losses during May. Nowhere near the slaughter of Allied merchantmen that took place during April in the Bay of Bengal, but the advantage still lying with Japan.

I-168 almost made it back to Tulagi after being bombed by patrol aircraft off Vanikoro. RO-64 lingered for the best part of a month at Paramushiro after being similarly hit by a prowling PV1 off Attu. I’ve already covered the demise of Hokaze at Port Blair and the retribution visited upon the RN cruisers responsible. Gunboat Magan Maru took two torpedoes from Sunfish off Ise Wan, whilst one of my few LST’s met its end off Attu at the hands of Cuttlefish, taking with it a highly promising Ensign named Sakai, who was acting as convoy commodore. I’ve been using the LST’s to slip an extra 1000T into Attu every fortnight or so, but that may have to stop whilst a submarine is squatting at the base.

The most noteworthy feature of the month’s shipping casualties is the prominence of Allied submarines. A tally of no less than 9 submarines lost makes this a black month for the Allies' silent services. Their torpedoes may now be less failure-prone, but they are paying a high price for the few kills they obtain. Most have been caused by 100-shiki Donryu: these JAAF bombers, with their very high experience, seem to be proving lethal to Allied submarines. The exception was Permit, which had the misfortune to encounter two high quality ASW groups that were escorting a convoy bound for Lae.

Pilot training progress and monthly intelligence summary to follow.

[Local Yokel]

Here is the Tracker data showing changes in pilot experience over the month. Speaks for itself, but worth noting that overall the JNAF has gained an additional experience point to its average.

[Local Yokel]

Now for the Intelligence Summary for May 1943. This reveals a respectable increase in Allied Army Loss Points, reflecting the higher value attributed to the non-Chinese casualties inflicted on the Nicobar and Sabang invaders. Despite the loss of two bases (strange game arithmetic here!) Japanese base points have been somewhat increased, but the gain is modest because the emphasis is on building defences rather expanding facilities.

Almost no change in the monthly total of destroyed Allied aircraft, but a reduction of 70 in the number of Japanese aircraft lost in the process. Possibly more significant is the fact that the Japanese are still attaining a favourable exchange ratio of 4:1 in aerial victories. I am relatively unconcerned by destruction of replaceable airframes, but I treat preservation of an elite pilot corps as being vital. Once you start committing low quality pilots to combat, not only do you cease to score heavily against your opponent’s aircraft but you also give his pilots easy victories and a corresponding experience gain. This double blow to the potential of your air forces is, I think, something the Japanese player needs to avoid at all cost, even if it is an objective attained at the expense of some damage to your troops and infrastructure. Whether or not your opponent smashes your nice level 7 runways is irrelevant if you are only going to be able to fly 50-experience cannon fodder from them.

One thing I still don’t understand is how, in mid-1943, the Japanese are still able to fly four sorties for every three flown by the Allies. Can Allied serviceability be that low, or has he a mass of units sitting in rear areas that he is simply unable to deploy?

[Local Yokel]

A few notes by theatre:

First, Burma, Malaya and Sumatra. I have now managed to eliminate the supporting units landed by SEAC/Eastern Fleet at Sabang, leaving 2nd British ID as the sole defending unit there. They are proving very hard to wear down, but eventually I must reach the point where they run out of cooks to whom a rifle can be given.

In Burma I have been awaiting the arrival at Mandalay of XIV Army’s 16 units. My recce pilots report the presence of about 70,000 troops, 500+ guns and 500+ AFV’s. I can match him in manpower, having about 98,000 men present, of which about 29,000 are infantry, all of very high quality. I can match him in number of tubes, but not in weight of fire, I suspect, as I have several AA units in the city. My real disadvantage is in AFV’s, where I am outnumbered 5 to 2. However, my armour includes 120 Type 3 Chi Nu. The long 75mm gun mounted by this vehicle is the equal of the main armament of the Lee and Sherman and should be capable of defeating their armour. I shall have the advantage of employing my tanks within level 9 fortifications, and I have to hope that this is going to be my equaliser. I also think I have a substantial logistical advantage, with good railway communications forward from Rangoon, where the dumps have more than 70,000 supplies accumulated. He is having to bring his stocks forward over jungle trails. In all, I face him at Mandalay with reasonable confidence.

In China the situation is fairly quiet as I gather my forces for the assault on Changsha. I have two divisions and two artillery units coming forward to the city, with a number of reinforcement divisions also due to arrive during June. It will be interesting to see whether, when the attack begins, he withdraws from Changsha across the river to Hengchow in the hope of forcing me to make an assault crossing in order to advance further. Such a withdrawal would seal the fate of between 130,000 an 150,000 Chinese troops in the Kanhsien salient, whose future doesn’t appear too rosy however you look at it.

I am attaching an image of the situation in Australia’s Northern Territory, where SWPac HQ and 37th American ID with other units are at the tip of the advance towards Daly Waters. The main column is reported as including 64,000+ troops, 500+ guns and about 180+ AFV’s. In Daly Waters itself I can face this with 78,000+ troops, including about 16,000 infantry. Once again, I have plenty of AA artillery but even with these can only bring about 350 tubes to bear. In armour I am his equal or better in terms of numbers. The Daly Waters defenders are, of course, dug in with level 9 fortifications. I have plans to remedy the shortage of artillery, as I have a very strong artillery unit that I can ship in during June, together with a reinforcement infantry division if need be.

What is interesting about the Allied deployment is his extended wings, each composed of an infantry brigade or, in one case, a tank battalion. 3rd Australian Infantry Bde is taking up the extreme right flank position, with 1st Australian Army Tk Bn holding the line between the extreme right and SWPac’s main force on the Tennant Creek-Daly Waters road – a potential point of vulnerability, if the tanks get forced back, as 3rd Bde is already rather out on a limb. I suspect that this extended deployment is prompted partly by a desire to envelop the Daly Waters defences, and partly as a safeguard against the kind of sally operation I mounted around Christmas 1942 that cost the Australians a full Militia infantry division. If he thinks he’s going to get athwart my LOC in rear of Daly Waters he’s in for a shock, as I have to hand a powerful reserve to meet that contingency. Thus, in this theatre too, I await developments with some confidence, and derive some amusement from the possibility that previous Japanese operations have induced excessive precautionary measures in the Allied deployment, so robbing his spear point of some of its strength.

[Local Yokel]

On to the Pacific, the theatre of greatest current concern to me.

31 May saw Abemama fall to the onslaught of two RCT’s, 3 SeeBee units and a USN base force. The attack was largely a walkover; I had only token forces there to resist a landing. The problem with this is the potential expansion of Abemama’s airfields to level 5, and the loss of air superiority that is then likely to occur. In this I may have fallen victim to my own success, as the Solomon chain has been built up sufficiently to make its taking a protracted and bloody business. Perhaps the Allies have decided that a succession of atoll assaults through the Central Pacific is the better alternative. Bloody though these may also be, they would leave Rabaul and points south bypassed, and if they were to succeed would constitute a most serious threat towards Japan’s inner perimeter in the Western Carolines, Marianas and Bonins.

All of the Marshalls capable of taking level 4 airfields save Kusaie are now fully fortified. They carry garrisons of varying size, but as matters stand each would need a serious assault with prepared forces. The remaining Gilberts are as heavily garrisoned and fortified as the Marshalls. The question I’m now asking myself is whether I should engage in some smoke and mirrors work, giving an appearance of strength to the Marshalls sufficient to require a prepared assault against Kwajalein at least. This would free forces that could be committed to the defence of Ponape and Brown Island/Eniwetok, Truk’s eastern sentinels. Though atoll assaults can go wrong for the attacker, my fear is that there are just too many bases in the Marshalls for the Japanese to defend successfully, and that they would do better to make Ponape and Eniwetok obligatory Allied targets that can only be taken at great cost. Thoughts?

The other – and immediate – tactical problem confronting me is my reaction to the Abemama landing. Six of 1st Koku Kantai’s seven fleet carriers are now massed within one day’s steaming distance of a riposte aimed at the US carriers currently located 120 miles east of Abemama. For two days the enemy carriers have stood within escorted torpedo strike range of the Rikko groups on Majuro, but disappointingly the land attack planes have failed to launch. I had really counted on such attacks occurring in order to raise the fatigue level of the defending CAP, so clearing the way for a rapier thrust by the Japanese carrier strike groups. Sighting reports indicate the presence of at least four US carriers – and they could all be CV’s before I even start to worry about Independence class CVL’s being present. Or they could be a CAP-heavy decoy made up of escort carriers.

So, the horns of my dilemma are these: the best result I’m likely to obtain is a straight trade in carriers – say an exchange of Hiryu and Soryu for Hornet and Lexington or Saratoga. This is attainable at great cost to my carrier air groups and still leaves the Allies with a minimum of 3 fleet carriers and a growing number of CVL’s (let alone the Essexes arriving later). I am unlikely to put a big enough dent in the Fast Carrier Force to delay the Central Pacific drive substantially. Such an exchange would also diminish the threat posed by Kido Butai as a fleet in being. These are the arguments against a Japanese carrier strike now. Arguments in favour of it are:

* I have the assistance of LBA whilst the enemy does not.

* Tomorrow he will have patrol aircraft operating from Abemama; their presence today will give the Americans little advance warning.

* This will probably be the last occasion I enjoy carrier fighter parity before introduction of the F6F – it may well be the last time Japanese carriers can compete with their American opposites on equal terms.

To strike or not to strike? I think the arguments are finely balanced. Anyone who wants to contribute their two pennyworth is welcome – but make it quick, as I have to make the decision NOW!

[Local Yokel]

Air battle of June 2nd, 1943 – Daly Waters, NT, Australia.

Day after day the Allied bombers from Tennant Creek have been striking this small settlement in Northern Australia, repeatedly targeting the well dug-in Japanese formations there. Particularly hard hit have been the unfortunate members of Japan’s 41st Anti-aircraft Regiment, which seems to have received more than its fair share of attacks. Recently the bombers have switched their efforts to the airfield, whose runway and facilities are now seriously damaged despite the attentions of the many Japanese engineers based at this location.

The spearhead of the Allied armies advancing towards Darwin has now made contact with the Japanese perimeter at Daly Waters, and at 3rd Air Army’s HQ in Katherine there is growing concern amongst Lt Gen Sugiwara’s staff at the extent of the damage being done to the infrastructure of Japan’s forward-most base. Plans have been laid for an ambush of the bombers and their escorts, but successive days of stormy weather deter Sugiwara form ordering his interceptors forward.

Notwithstanding the protracted storms there is no let-up in the Allied air attacks, and in desperation Sugiwara approves the movement order that calls four sentai forward to Katherine’s aerodrome from Darwin on 2nd June 1943. From here the sentai will mount patrols over Daly Waters in a bid to hold back the incessant Allied air assault for a day at least.

Despite the bad weather, the defending Japanese fighters have an exceptional day. Finding that they have been deployed with serious armament defects, the Type 3's of 24th Sentai take a top cover position in the hope that a height advantage will compensate somewhat for this. Having noted that the main Allied bomber attacks come in at 4000 feet, the Type 2 Shoki of 29th and 59th Sentai and the Hien of 65th Sentai take up a patrol altitude of 7000 feet, at which height they become heavily engaged with a mixed bunch of P-38's and the new Chance Vought fighter, with which the Japanese are largely unfamiliar. Plunging from their high altitude position the 24th's undergunned Hien are probably able to accomplish little, but their brethren below more than make up for this, even though two of the 59th's aircraft go down in quick succession to F4U guns. Although the scrap with the escort denies the Japanese an opportunity to score heavily against the bombers, several Mitchells are destroyed and much of the sting is taken out of the raid:

Day Air attack on Daly Waters , at 35,90

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 25
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 27

Allied aircraft
F4U-1 Corsair x 8
P-38G Lightning x 8
B-25C Mitchell x 43
B-24D Liberator x 13
P-38F Lightning x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 2 destroyed, 20 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 10 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
F4U-1 Corsair: 1 destroyed, 6 damaged
P-38G Lightning: 5 destroyed
B-25C Mitchell: 4 destroyed, 35 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 11 damaged
P-38F Lightning: 6 destroyed, 3 damaged

Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 6

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
6 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
7 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-24D Liberator bombing at 4000 feet
2 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-25C Mitchell bombing at 4000 feet

A subsequent unescorted raid against 41st AA Rgt (the usual victims) is for once met by determined fighter opposition and a heavy toll is exacted from the attacking Havocs, no less than 25% of their number being destroyed:

Day Air attack on 41st AA Regiment, at 35,90

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 24
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 27

Allied aircraft
A-20G Havoc x 27
B-17E Fortress x 7

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 4 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 3 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
A-20G Havoc: 7 destroyed, 13 damaged
B-17E Fortress: 7 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
42 casualties reported

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x A-20G Havoc bombing at 4000 feet
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 4000 feet
2 x A-20G Havoc bombing at 4000 feet
4 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 4000 feet

The final raid coming up from Alice Springs sees the Japanese defenders depleted by damage from earlier actions, and they are unable to do more than damage some of the attacking heavies:

Day Air attack on 41st AA Regiment, at 35,90

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIb Tojo x 11
Ki-61-Ib Tony x 14

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 6
B-24D Liberator x 6

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIb Tojo: 4 damaged
Ki-61-Ib Tony: 5 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 6 damaged
B-24D Liberator: 6 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
33 casualties reported
Guns lost 1

Aircraft Attacking:
3 x B-17E Fortress bombing at 8000 feet...

The day's scorecards show the following for the Japanese:

65th Sentai (Hien): 7 confirmed kills for no loss
59th Sentai (Shoki): 2 confirmed kills for 2 losses
29th Sentai (Shoki): 12 confirmed kills for 1 loss
24th Sentai (Hien:) unknown, but possibly accounts for some of an additional 8 kills in the Daly Waters air battles, 29 Allied aircraft being shot down in the course of these for a total loss of 3 Japanese fighters.

Particular distinction goes to WO Inoue, P. of 29th Sentai, who, having never previously scored, brings down 3 Allied aircraft in a virtuoso performance before being compelled to abandon his damaged aircraft and parachute, injured, to a safe landing within his own lines.

[1275psi]

Hi Local Yokel
herbiesan here -actually just started to read this AAR -lots to catch up.
You seem to be doing a god job
After playing me and battling all the way up the solomon chain -I don't think he would relish that again.....

[Local Yokel]

Hi, Herbiesan - good to see you here!

Yes, it doesn't seem to be going too badly, but critical times lie ahead as I find out whether my defences at Daly Waters and Mandalay are going to be proof against his attacks.

I fear you may be right about the Solomons. I would be entirely content for him to commit himself to a major effort here, as I think he could not dare to bypass my defensive complex at Guadalcanal and Tulagi by aiming at the Upper Sols or New Britain/New Ireland direct. Any attempt to do so would be a high risk undertaking with chances for me to hit his LOC from Lower Sols, so I think he would have to reduce Guadalcanal first. And that would be a grinding battle with me having an initial territorial advantage, as the bases at Lunga and Tulagi are pretty strong.

It's interesting that he has tried on a couple of occasions to shut down the airfield at Lunga from Espiritu Santo, but no fighters have the legs to make the trip as an escort, so my Raiden always got a free shot at the bombers. I think the damage they did and ops losses/fatigue probably put him off this plan. Although I counterlanded at Vanikoro and bagged a SeaBee unit the first time he took that island, I didn't do so when he took it a second time, and I think he's building a strip there with an eye to flying sweeps against Lunga. This will be hard work as it's a zero SPS site for airfields, and any sweeps he flies are going to arrive over Lunga in a highly fatigued state. More juicy P-38 targets for my Raiden!

So I think I now see him aiming to make progress through the Central Pacific. I can live with that provided I can fool him into thinking that each amphibious target in the Marshalls may require a fully prepared divisional scale assault - some atolls will, most won't. But I'm re-thinking the defence a bit at the moment, and hoping to set up a major showdown when he starts to close in on Truk, where I can take advantage of its large base size and shortened LOC.

OTOH, if I get an opportunity to hit him hard as he works his way towards the Carolines then I shall seize it. Before he landed at Abemama he asked whether my carriers were coming out to play. I decided that the conditions haven't so far favoured it, so they haven't revealed themselves. I'm reasonably sure they have not been spotted, but I assume he must have thought they were nearby in the light of an incident that has just taken me completely by surprise, and will form the subject of my next post.

[Local Yokel]

Northernmost of the Mariana Islands, Farallon de Pajaros rears its volcanic cone above water midway between Saipan and the Kazan-rettô. The frequency of its eruptions has earned it the soubriquet ‘Lighthouse of the Western Pacific’, but those same eruptions have doubtless also helped to deprive it of any military significance. Nevertheless, as the nearest land to the surprising engagement that takes place on 6 June 1943, the Japanese come to refer to it as the scene of that battle, even though no part of the action takes place within a hundred miles of its shores.

As so often seems to have happened, the battle opens with a sighting by a Navy Type 0 Reconnaissance Seaplane. In this case the SuiTei belongs to the Hataka S1/ Hei-buntai, operating from Iwo Jima, and it reports the sighting of an Allied force said to include battleships and transports some 250 miles ESE of the aircraft’s base, westbound on 5 June 1943.

Maritime protection responsibility for the Kazan-rettô and all points south devolves upon Combined Fleet, and consequently the report ultimately finds its way to the CinC himself, Adm Yamamoto Isoruku. What is he to make of it? British and American carriers are known to be operating in strength in the Gilberts to support the recent American landing on Abemama atoll, but Combined Fleet’s intelligence staff are equivocal as to whether this provides an accurate fix on the main enemy carrier strength. And the reference to transports is troubling: Japanese defences on the island chains south of Japan are building, but whilst Iwo Jima is stoutly garrisoned there are still plenty of islands that are not.

From within his usual cloud of exhaled cigarette smoke ‘Ganji’ Kuroshima speculates that this is a tip-and-run bombardment raid against Iwo, and most of the staff nod agreement. Typical American impudence! With their new fast battleships they will be long gone before any effective counter move can be mounted. But for that worrying reference to transports, the idea that the American force might penetrate the island arc is unthinkable.

But Yamamato is determined to react, and fortuitously he has the means at hand to do so. Five days have passed since refitted carrier Zuikaku departed Sasebo with an escort of eight upgraded special type destroyers, and she is currently reported 120 miles out from Ulithi en route to the Japanese main fleet base at Truk. She’s 800 miles distant from the American task force and stands small chance of engaging if this is the bombardment mission guessed by Kuroshima. Nonetheless Yamamoto orders her to reverse course and, of equal importance, to expect the arrival of additional aircraft, for her own hikotai is currently embarked in Taiho whilst that vessel’s aircraft undergo working up in China.

It’s a frantic scramble on the part of the Japanese to put together an effective force to meet the emergency, and the results are far from satisfactory, not least since they are able to direct no more than a single chutai of 9 fighters to serve as the carrier’s shield. Strike aircraft are less of a problem, and it is Cdr Fuchida himself who leads the mixed gaggle of Tenzan from the Suzuka daitai and the fighters on the long over-water flight from Truk to a successful rendezvous with Zuikaku as dusk falls – fortunately the homers in the Tenzan function efficiently, and the fighters stay close.

Meanwhile, from faraway Karafuto and their base outside Tokyo, constituents of the Yokusuka air group stage to Chichi-Jima, assembling there to prepare for torpedo strike against any worthwhile target remaining in range on the following day. There they are joined by the Chiyoda-buntai’s Type 94 Reconnaissance Seaplanes, part of the thickening density of air search assets the Japanese are bringing to bear on the eastern half of the Philippine Sea.

[Local Yokel]

On the following day it turns out to be one of the Chiyoda Type 94’s that first locates the enemy, now standing 250 miles SW of Iwo and still heading west! And now the shortcomings in the initial sighting on 5 June are revealed, for this is no bombardment force, but one built around one of the Americans’ new light carriers, which comes up full of fight with an escorted raid of 8 Avengers. Zuikaku’s insignificant CAP of 3 kansen dive in, disregarding the escort, and manage to damage several of the bombers before they reach their drop point. Hearts beat faster as three attain weapons release, but Zuikaku puts her helm hard over and successfully combs their tracks.

Day Air attack on TF at 61,59
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 3
Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 9
TBF Avenger x 8
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
TBF Avenger: 7 damaged
Japanese Ships
DD Shirayuki
CV Zuikaku

Now it’s the turn of the Japanese strike group. Dog tired though they may be, these are highly proficient airmen and there’s enough of them to pose a mortal threat to a carrier task force comprising but a single light carrier. Whilst the single chutai of Suisei dive bombers approaches at high altitude and distracts the American CAP, the main component of 35 Tenzan drop towards the ocean and come in low. The American gunners cause damage and losses among the raigeki-tai, but there’s just too many of them, and the carrier takes three strikes from their torpedoes whilst the dive bombers score two hits on an accompanying anti-aircraft cruiser. Even as they are doing so, there’s a flash from within the carrier and an erupting plume of smoke and debris as ordnance deep within cooks off – from the middle seat of his Tenzan, Fuchida’s moustache bristles as an exultant clenched fist goes aloft. Seeing the extent of the carrier’s damage, some of the Tenzan break off and conduct an effective attack against one of the escorting destroyers.

Zuikaku’s strike is likely more than sufficient to doom the American carrier, but there’s a follow-up from the Yokosuka contingent based at Chichi-Jima. The American CAP is still airborne and able to intervene when they arrive, but they are heavily outnumbered by this raid’s escort and can achieve little. Eight Rikkos take damage, but the remainder make accurate drops against the crippled carrier, scoring an additional four hits.

06/06/43
Day Air attack on TF at 61,56
Japanese aircraft
D4Y Judy x 9
A6M3a Zero x 6
B6N2 Jill x 35
Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 8
Japanese aircraft losses
D4Y Judy: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged
A6M3a Zero: 1 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 2 destroyed, 28 damaged
Allied Ships
CVL Princeton, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
CLAA San Juan, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CA Minneapolis
DD Stanly, Torpedo hits 3, on fire, heavy damage
=============================================
06/06/43
Day Air attack on TF at 61,56
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 21
G4M1 Betty x 16
Allied aircraft
FM-2 Wildcat x 6
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 3 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 8 damaged
Allied Ships
CVL Princeton, Torpedo hits 4, on fire, heavy damage

[1275psi]

cantona is making it a habit losing CV's in raids.
[:D]

[bigbaba]

@Local Yokel:

which paint software do you use to make such great maps like in the posting #277 (the CV battle map)?

hope its something for free.[:)]