What have I done? A new guy's experience

[Lecivius]

Multiple reinforcements arrive, but it may already be to late for all the mistakes I have made here.
 
Caonton comes under bombardment.  I have no idea how 7, count them 7, Japanese task forces reached Canton unseen through 2 wings of PBY's flying search.  I expect the invasion task forces I see now almost within range to land tomorrow.  To my New Guy mind this is intolerable that so many forces can get get so close without being spotted.  The forces here are all the units gfrom all the surronding areas.  If this falls, and under the current H/R, so goes the pacific.
 
In China huge Japanese armies have entered the same base hex as Chinese troops.  I learn another big lesson.  Once a Jap unit enters a hex, at least this early in the game, they 'control' the surrounding hexes.  Chinese forces will not move.  Having abandoned garrisoning captured cities, this allows the Japanese commander to have huge combat forces at his disposal, that move at 4-8 times the marching speed of their Chinese couterparts ( I watched a Jap Division go around a chinese army on on a road & cut them off).  This allows the skilled Japanese player to surrond & destroy the Northern Chinese forces before troops Chinese forces get past Sian.
 
I've been schooled.  I learned a lot of game mechanics that you just don't see playing AI. 
 
When Canton falls, and there is no way to hold it with what forces I have available this early, and with 2 Jap carriers keeping my STF at bay, the Pacific is lost.  With the H/R in place that I agreed to, there is no way I can see to open this up prior to 1944.  Loosing those 2 US carriers so early allows the Japanese free reign.  Not being able to use the massive allied strength later ensures (at least to in experienced eyes) that at best I will achieve stalemate here.
 
Oz is being resupplied.  It can hold, and defend itself, if I do nothing stupid here.  But there are not enough forces available prior to July '43 to even consider offensive operations.
 
India can hold as well, and for the same reasons.  It also has the same restrictions.  Add in that I am already being asked to withdraw forces, and this becomes more problamatic.
 
The issue in China has allowed the enitre northern Chinese combat forces to be destroyed.  I tried to fall back following the advice given here.  But I was 'stuck' by a Jap tank force, surrounded, and destroyed.  And even outnumbering my opponent both in manpower, guns, & AV does not allow me to reach more than a 1-1 combat ratio.  Not enough to break free before more forces engage and surround me for destruction.
 
I'm not whining (I hope), just pointing out Newb issues as I discover them.  As this game stands now in Jan 13 1942 I don't see a way I can pull off anything better than a stalemate through '46.  I won't have more than 4 carriers (and 2 of them British) until then.  By then, invasions of any Atolls will be against lvl 9 forts.  No Aircraft will be able to fly from the US to the South Pacific.  Nells can reach the entire map, effectively cutting the Pacific in half.  China is a place where one needs to fall back...way back...and try to dig in before becoming engaged and destroyed.  Dutch aircraft from Batavia have refused to fly for over 2 weeks.  Not sure why, they are rested, supplied, have adequate support, and a lvl 4 air base.
 
Thoughts, suggestions, tips, or advice are welcome here.  As it stands, I am seriously considering bowing too the supperior knowledge and skills of my opponent in a game already decided. 

[wneumann]

I lost Canton Is too. Yes... losing Canton does create considerable difficulties in sea communication between the U.S and NZ/Australia. Yes... you may lose much of the South Pacific.

A question before I continue - what scenario are you playing (stock Witp, CHS, ...)?

Your opponent (and you too) have the benefit of 20-20 hindsight. What your opponent is doing one thing that the Japanese maybe should have done historically - pushed farther into the South Pacific to cut off communication from the U.S. to Australia. My opponent also did this... took Canton along with Pago Pago, Suva, and Noumea (not to mention Port Moresby and all the Solomons).

A possible response is for you to "re-align" your theatre boundaries. Once all the dust settles, much if not most of the historical South and SW Pacific theatre outside of Australia and NZ will be in Japanese hands before you can get much of anything there to stop them. But you'll still have all the available air, land, and naval forces for those theatres if you do not commit them piecemeal. South and SW Pacific forces can safely be concentrated elsewhere into a rather formidable mass.

In response to losing Canton... hold the Line Islands (Palmyra, Christmas). That can become your "base" from where you make your comeback. Also, make NZ and Australia as self-sufficient as possible over the next year or so. You can get stuff from India or the U.S. to Australia or NZ, it's just going to be in very small quantities and it's going to get there very slowly. Without giving away "trade secrets", my AAR will hopefully provide some illustration of your current and possible future situation.

[Lecivius]

Stock capmaign game.
 
The loss of those 2 carriers so early is the killer.  Without a Fleet In Being, the Japs can do as they please.
 
Note to new players, there is very little to be gained by even sortiying the US carriers before June/July 42, and a WHOLE lot to loose.
 
Good advice on Oz & NZ.  Oz generates enough force that with sufficient supplies, it can defend itself, even if the ride is bumpy.
 
Now off to read, decipher, & ponder you AAR & try to get more tips

[Lecivius]

A much needed supply convoy finally reaches Kupang, having gone almost to Oz before doubling back, in order to avoid Jap forces.  The day after, a major STF including 2 battleships and 4 CA's strike in a bombardment run.  Simutaneously both KB and Mini KB pop up 2 hexes away, to the west and to the Northwest.  Thee MSW, and 12 AK's go down in one terrible hour.   Twenty P40E's are blown out of the sky, with  NO loses to Jap aircraft.
 
To quote Marlon Brandon,  "The Horror...The Horror..."
 

[Lecivius]

Invasion forces are headed to Christmas & Palmyra.  At least 2 carriers spotted, so there is nothing I can do to stop it.
 
Again, for new folks reading this.   I should have left my carriers at home & left free reign to the Japanese during the first weeks.  That mistake will probably cost me this war.  And soon.  Political points are incrementing at around 500 a turn for the Japanese currently.  Score is 6321 to 7949 in favor of th Japs as of 1/13/42, and accelerating.
 
And never attack or even leave fortified positions in China unless you are certain to win, and with more than 3-1 in AV ( you get 1-1 ratios with any less with the Chinese army leadrship).  Once in the same hex as the Jaanese all the Japs have to do to hold you in place is Bombard to keep your units from moving.  Then its surround & destroy aka Hitlers panzers.  Yeah, you get the units back.  In a few months.  At 1/3 value.  Which by then is unsupplied.
 
I guess I was to aggressive in my defence.  Nothing worked, in any theater.  No wonder everyone does a Sir Robin & pray like heck in the first year.

[wneumann]

Don't concern yourself that much with the VP score at this time, the Japs are going to rack up a score no matter what and how well you do it. I escaped a Jap auto-victory on 1/1/43 by less than 50 VP - though we would have continued playing anyway (why lose all the time and effort both players put into the PBEM).

As for the two carriers you lost... you'll automatically get nice, new Essex ones to replace them in late '43 when you might actually get to use them! Just save the one(s) you got or are due to get and use them carefully.

This may be Pacific War and you're the Allies... at this point your situation is not too much unlike the Russians in 1941 when Adolf crossed the border. You're getting blown away. Your opponent is racing forward everywhere. At the same time, it's a big map you're playing on, the Japanese can't take all of it with what they have to work with. Your opponent's resources aren't unlimited, his advantages are not permanent. You won't stop him at the Dneiper, but somewhere behind you is the Don and Volga.

The point of Sir Robin is mostly this... Your opponent has all the early advantages, nothing on your part can be done about it. However, some of those advantages (i.e. the Zero bonus, etc) are temporary. They only last so long. What you can do until mid to late 1942 is give your opponent as few opportunities as possible to use the advantages at his disposal, and make the few opportunities he would get anyway to cause as little damage to your forces or position as possible. When most or enough of the early Japanese advantages go away, your opponent will have to slow down, not to mention the consideration that the Japanese can only advance so far before over-extending themselves with you holding the advantage of "interior lines". The farther you are pushed back, the easier it is for you to concentrate Allied forces coming in as reinforcements.

Another way of looking at it... your opponent is the hare, you are the tortoise.

[Lecivius]

[font=arial]Absolutely spot on advice![/font][/align][font=arial][/font] [/align][font=arial]I am following your AAR as well, wneumann[/font][/align][font=arial][/font] [/align][font=arial]Everything happening in yours is happening in mine, albeit without my carriers my opponent is doing it 4-6 months faster.  I was horribly surprised when Canton fell as fast as it did.  One CD unit and 4 base forces (all fragmented, but still all I had in the South Pacific).  Gone with barely a shot fired.  A reinforcement convoy was 3 days out before this began.  The speed the Japanese can attack, pick up, move & attack again is incredible.  The 4 carriers of the SouPac KB unit were last seen far to the east of Canton, looking for more remnants.  They won't be found.  The Halsey approach this early has caused the allies incredible hardship.  I am now looking at a Gen. Stilwell combat model.  Unfortunately, I still have a little Patton in my head whispering fiercely.  I must keep him in check for a little while longer.[/font][/align][font=arial][/font] [/align][font=arial][/font] [/align][font=arial]--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coastal Guns at Canton Island, 98,99, firing at TF 189
TF 189 troops unloading over beach at Canton Island, 98,99
 
 
22 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Japanese Ships
PG Hakkaisan Maru, Shell hits 2
AP Katsura Maru
 
Japanese ground losses:
124 casualties reported
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font][/align][font=arial][/font] [/align][font=arial]Ground combat at Canton Island
 
Japanese Shock attack
 
Attacking force 1967 troops, 15 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 79
 
Defending force 4883 troops, 60 guns, 3 vehicles, Assault Value = 8
 
Japanese max assault: 126 - adjusted assault: 72
 
Allied max defense: 2 - adjusted defense: 10
 
Japanese assault odds: 7 to 1 (fort level 1)
 
Japanese forces CAPTURE Canton Island base !!!
 
 
 
Allied aircraft
no flights
 
 
Allied aircraft losses
PBY Catalina: 5 destroyed
B-17E Fortress: 2 destroyed
 
Japanese ground losses:
203 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
 
Allied ground losses:
6268 casualties reported
Guns lost 45
Vehicles lost 1
 
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------[/font][/align]

[Lecivius]

Jap STF begin bombarding Darwin.  Local aircraft don't fly, Dutch morale is in the 20's.
 
The bombardment destroyed my last AS.  Dang, that's gonna hurt.
 
Mini KB is seen headed for a loop around west Oz.
 
Jap paratroopers attack & sieze the Burma road.
 
Mental note, Japs have a lot of paratroopers that can ruin a defensive plan.  All paths need guarded.

[Lecivius]

January 42
 
Auto Victory is just a few weeks away.  Either a sub, or a carrier force, has sunk every ship in the pacific.  Reinforcements to the Line Islands were caught perfectly by the reduced KB with no hope of escape.  How my opponent does this is simply amazing, he has caught 100% of my ships carrying units in this game, no matter where they were.   The slaughter was worse than the losses inccured by both sides in the US Civil War. 
 
Dutch air craft have morale in the 20's.  Raids of over 70 zeros occur over Kupang, and Changsha in China.  Ambonia has another 72 flying CAP.  There are more over Lae.
 
Six divisions have almost encircled Mandalay.  There are @ 12 more divisions plus support units encircling Changasha in China.  Another 3 or 4 surround Yemen.  Gili Gili is invaded, so PM is cut off as expected.
 
PH is almost defensless.  So is the West Coast.  Such is the price of an aggressive defense in the face of a superior opponent in the opening stages of the game.

[Lecivius]

Nuclear Bombardment of Koepang by the Japanese.  10 thousand causalties, just under 40k in supply goes up in smoke, 9k in fuel, the airbase, runways & port went to 100% damaged...in one night.
 
I saw it coming, & got a lot of air frames out of the way, but Holy Cow!  [X(]
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Koepang, at 28,77
 
 
Allied aircraft
no flights
 
 
Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort V-IX: 1 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 5 destroyed
Do 24K-2: 1 destroyed
 
Japanese Ships
CL Kiso
CL Tama
BB Hyuga
BB Ise
BB Mutsu
 
 
Allied ground losses:
6593 casualties reported
Guns lost 78
Vehicles lost 18
 
Airbase hits 5
Airbase supply hits 8
Runway hits 34
Port hits 9
Port supply hits 10
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Koepang, at 28,77
 
 
Allied aircraft
no flights
 
 
Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort V-IX: 5 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed
 
Japanese Ships
CL Isuzu
CL Sendai
CA Kumano
CA Suzuya
CA Mikuma
CA Mogami
 
 
Allied ground losses:
1500 casualties reported
Guns lost 5
Vehicles lost 1
 
Airbase hits 7
Runway hits 41
Port hits 10
Port supply hits 13
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Naval bombardment of Koepang, at 28,77
 
 
Allied aircraft
no flights
 
 
Allied aircraft losses
Beaufort V-IX: 1 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 1 destroyed
 
Japanese Ships
CL Natori
CL Nagara
CL Naka
CA Myoko
CA Maya
 
 
Allied ground losses:
720 casualties reported
Guns lost 1
Vehicles lost 1
 
Airbase hits 2
Runway hits 28
Port hits 7
Port supply hits 4
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Lecivius]

Final Update 2/12/42.
 
The Line islands fall.  All the surrounding islands in the Solomans, and bases in New Guinea are swallowed up.
 
Paratroopers take the rear chinese bases, the Burma road is closed.
 
From bases in Timor, allied shipping is blasted by Jap LBA after desperately needed supplies are delivered to Darwin.
 
Jap subs have spectacular success in the far east pacific, sinking 2-3 ships per attack per turn.
 
A final attempt is made to supply & reinforce Suva.  Again, KB & STF intercept with no warning ( 72 Catalinas were operating from Suva)  All but 7 AK's operational in the Pacific are blown to kingdom come, along with the 2nd Marine, 2 base forces, and a MAW.
 
Not sure why, but no P40E replacements are appearing.  B17 replacements show at 2 per week.  British aircraft show in useable numbers, but can't upgrade until May 42.  The Aussie units are fragmented and can't re-arm.  Over 46 Beaufighters, 62 Hurricanes, and other air craft stay in storage.  The fragments pulled from the Koepang, disaster remain fragments, even though they are on land and in Darwin, along with their Headquarters unit and 70k in supply.  Dutch base forces do  slowly recover.
 
In short, game over.  I HATED tossing in the towel.  But I have only P39's to use as fighters.  Every other fighter unit on the board except the AVG went down in their ship to torpedo attack.  Only 1 squadron of AVG was able to upgade.  After that, the P40E production just vanished.  I was completely out of fighter support.  The losses to the combat shipping could be recovered from.  The lost to lift capacity could not.  PH was in orange supply status, NZ was almost out, the North Pacific was in sad shape, India was ok, but Burma was totally out even with every airframe in the region running supply, and in China everything but Chunking was dry.  And with the losses trying to get reinforcements to the Line, Palyarma, Suva, and supplies to Oz I had a total of 7 AK's not in orange damage state or worse. 
 
I would really appreciate a critique, because I know I ruined this for Boba.  Here is how I see my dismal failures.
 
1)  I underestimated the fall back point to Timor for my Sir Robin.  I should have falled back to Oz.  No stand anywhere will stop the Japanese until May 42.
 
2)  Less aggressive at the begining.  Some surface forces are expendable.  I knew the forces I commited would get lost, but there was minimal return on losses.
 
3)  I had my carriers out to early.  Way to early.  Even being conservative, if they get caught before May '42 the Japanese have simply to many options opened for them.  There is no acceptable return on their use prior to Feb. '42 at the very earliest.  They need to be left in port, probably in America for safety.
 
4) Fall back from Burma should not stop at Mandalay, but all the way back to India.  This will force the Japs to long supply lines, which might be exploited.
 
5) In China, you cannot win.  Ever.  Four divisions with HQ units will not achieve better than 0-1 odds against paratroopers in offense, so your best move is pure defense.  You cannot attack, only defend for the first year.  Don't even try.  Force the Japanese to extend their supply lines to the point they cannot continue offensive operations.
 
6) Discuss well Home Rules before the game begins.  Try to establish some sort of rule for game bugs.  I STILL have a convoy in a time warp that has not moved since January '42.\
 
7) Air search for the allies is a joke. Don't expect much, and remember 1 jap Glen will see more than 72 Catalinas.
 
What else did I screw up on?