Forlorn Hopes - Dan and John Discuss their Game

[Canoerebel]

This thread will allow John and I to discuss our game, which is ongoing but nearing the end of 1944. Therefore, unless the Japs have developed nuclear-bomb capability, the Allies, who are the good guys full of light and mighty deeds of bravery, should by all rights win. The Japs are downtrodden, as befits those who have no redeeming qualities and who sniff at the backsides of rodents when not planning sneak attacks that disrupt the worlds' harmony.

It's lunch time, so I won't embark on my analysis yet, except to ask this question of John: What the heck is a "Kaigun"?

[John 3rd]

Just posted this over in the "First Team" AAR:




Japanese Naval Education 101:  Kaigun Translates towards the Imperial Fleet. 

There is a MASTERFUL work entitled Kaigun that came out about 10 years ago and I heartily recommend it.  It is wonderful.

Perhaps you have read the title of my latest Thread in the Forlorn Hopes AAR:  "Kaigun's Final Sortie?" 

[John 3rd]

Suggested this to Dan in the First Team AAR as we are winding down our Campaign with Forlorn Hopes.  Like the idea of a healthy discussion of the war and get opinions from readers who have followed both of our AARs.

I would like to start by thanking Dan for providing me a campaign that has served, in a time of great darkness, to keep me occupied and distracted for the last 18 months.  He is a good friend and opponent dating back to Uncommon Valor.  His semi-legal advice has aided my case over the last 18 months and we have immensely enjoyed each other. 

There have been times in this campaign where both of us were ready and willing to quit.  Dan had several low moments as I drove on to nearly take all of Australia and also when I made the Iwo Jima and Home Island's Landings extremely costly.  On the other hand I have nearly quit a few times in the last couple of months as the pain only increases for the Japanese with no hope of anything in site.  Most of this thought about leaving the game has been augmented by my real life situation.

We have authorized each other to ready up to September 1944 in each other's AAR.

As has been the costom in my side of our AAR, please jump in and say your thoughts.  I would like for this Thread to be educational for Allied and Japanese FB.  Remember this is a Big B 1.4 Mod Game.

[Q-Ball]

Kaigun refers to THIS book by David Evans:

http://www.amazon.com/Kaigun-Strategy-T ... 0870211927

Anyone reading this with an interest in the WWII Japanese Navy and its strategy, which is probably anyone reading this, should get this book. If you liked Shattered Sword, you'll also love Kaigun. It's worth the $45.

[2ndACR]

I am waiting for both of you to get to the point right before India invasion sets sail. I about split a gut at what happened.

[vettim89]

First let me thank you both for all the entertainment and learning opportunities. I started reading these AAR's about the time I started my PBEM with Greasylake because we are playing the same mod. I will probably jump in here and make some specific comments but there is something I have to share.

As an AFB, when I first started reading, I was rooting for Dan all the way. John was so masterful in taking half the world in 1942. Those that read his AAR know John does not hesitate to let's say "savor his victories". I wanted Dan to smash the Japanese back to the stone age.

Then Dan decided to invade Hokaido in 1943. In my mind this plan was so foolish and had so little chance of success that I thought Dan had lost his mind. Shows you what I know. Remeber the scene in Top Gun when Maverick confronts the hot chic aeronautical engineer? She tells Maverick she has to criticize him because he alone has the skill to pull off the stunts he does and if the other pilots tried it they would kill themselves. Dan, I dub thee Sir Maverick. Don't try this at home,kids. Nonetheless I was soooo rooting for John to hand it to Dan to punish him for his foolhardy move. We saw how that worked out.

Then John decides to invade India in late 1944. Take the above perigraph and reverse the names.

Then I realized I am just a Forlorn Hopes fanboy. I applaud you both for this incredible game. I think it will probably be a very long time before we see a game with such wild swings of momentum.

[&o][&o][&o]

[John 3rd]

Vettim--Thanks for your comments and postings in my AAR as well as here.

You are totally correct in my bombast within 'savoring my victories' as well (I might add) in questioning Dan's moves and choices.  I think the differences in our play, reflecting our differing strengths within the game, has really shown as time passed.  I LOVE the Navy and coming up with bold plans.  Sometimes the planning is far more enjoyable to the Operation.  Dan's strength--beyond doubt--is on the ground war side.  It has been so fun and frustrating to experience this.  Tend to get really carried away and I hope Dan takes it all in Good Spirit as the Native American might say!

Our perspectives are so different that this should be mighty interesting reading with us seeing each other's thinking.

[Canoerebel]

I feel the same way about John, which I think is a common sentiment shared by long-term opponents in UV and WitP.  As I've noted in my AAR, there were times that John irritated me (for instance, when I thought he was taking just a little too much pleasure in a decisive Japanese victory), worried me (at times I thought he might have dropped the game), and made me really angry (once, when he thought I might have gotten some inside information about his recent totally surprising invasion of India).  Yet those feelings always remained subservient to the overriding feeling that John is almost like a brother.  Yes, we get irritated at our brothers, and brothers are awfully competitive, but it doesn't change the underlying bond between the two.
 
That's enough of that!
 
I'll make a number of posts in here, but let me start with a post dedicated to the mistakes I think I've made in this game:
 
1)  Early in 1942 I had two American carriers in Australia; they were low on fuel, but took on enough that I thought they could sprint west along the Southern map edge for Panama City.  Their low fuel reserves, however, made them creep along as the carriers and escorts continually attempted to refuel evey turn, thus robbing the TFs of alot of movement points.  Rather than a spring of five or more hexes per turn, the escape turned into a crawl at two hexes per turn.  John's recon sighted a TF, he sortied the KB, and his ships easily caught and demolished this TF, sinking two carriers, several CAs, and a bunch of DDs.  It was an awful way to begin the game.
 
2)  In late '42 or early '43, as John's massive army in Australia threatened to overwhelm that continent, I elected to launch an amphibious operation against Wotje and Maloelap.  It was well put together and clearly achieved surprise, but it was not a sound operation.  It was way too early in the war for the Allies to try to take and hold an "island in the midst of a sea of Japanese power."  John reacted quickly and a major battle ensued.  The Allies lost several BBs and two CVs (both failed to fly CAP for some reason).  The Japs lost a BB and a few other lesser assets.  The Allies took Wotje in force, but couldn't hold it.  I lost two Marine Divisions and change.  This operation was a disaster, but it possibly lessened the pressure on Australia as John did commit alot of ships and aircraft in his counterattack.  I'll leave it to John to say whether that was the case or not.
 
3)  Wake Island Invasion:  In mid-1944 the Allies invaded Wake Island, but didn't bring enough the first time to take the base.  As a result, the Allies had to bring reinforcements about two months later, which succeeded.  However, this entire operation tied up alot of troops and ships for a long time, robbing the Allies of mobility at a time they might have been using those assets on more profitable adventures.
 
4)  Getting the Australian merchant fleet trapped against the map edge.  This cost the Aussies a hundred or more merchant ships when the KB showed up and trapped my ships.  I didn't need them in Australia and should've moved them to the USA long before.  As a result of losing so many merchant ships then and also at Hokkaido, Miway, Iwo Jima, and SEAC, the Aussie army has been largely stranded in Australia.
 
Folks who have posted in my AAR, and John in his emails, have questioned many other Allied tactics and strategies for a variety of reasons, but I feel strongly that these were off target:
 
1)  Using the Allied fleet carriers defensively:  I have done so since the Hokkaido operation in late '43.  This operation gave the Allies the major base at the doorstep of Japan needed to win the game; in fact, there was no way I could lose the game from that point on as long as I kept that base, kept it supplied, and used it to bomb Japan.  For John to prevent an Allied victory, he HAD to try to mount a major counterattack.  Therefore, from late '43 until at least mid '44, the vast majority of American fleet carriers were stationed at or near Sikhalin Island to protect the two bases and to ensure they both remained fully supplied to permit air operations.  This has been hugely successful in my opinion.  Beginning around mid '44, the American carriers have spent most of their time defending Iwo or protecting the various amphibious operations at Wake and Formosa.  Again, I think these rather defensive uses were higher priority than offensive use.
 
2)  Going after Iwo Jima and Hokkaido in '43 rather than the Philippines, Formosa, or Okinawa:  John began reinforcing the latter three heavily in mid-43, so the operation originally intended for the PI instead diverted to Iwo Jima.  It was the best thing that could have happened to me and the worst thing that could have happened to John.  Given the benefit of my experience at Iwo and Sikhalin Island, which I had trouble supplying even though they had supply lines much less exposed to Japanese attack, it became clear to me that I would never have been able to supply Luzon or Formosa even though I would have had massive armies and many aircraft there to protect my position.  John could have also reinforced fairly easily, I think there's a decent chance I might have lost these invasions.  But Iwo and Sikhalin were easier to supply, harder for John to hit, and therefore much more secure.  Moreover, they gave me what I needed - air bases to hammer Japan from.
 
3)  The Allied advance in SEAC:  It amazes me that people question that Allied offensive in SEAC in '43 and '44.  Had I known that John was willing to concede so easily, I of course would have pressed my advantage more quickly, but I didn't know.  The Japs had a huge army there and the bases in this region are vital, so I figured John would protect those bases and counterattack.  So I was very careful to protect my flanks and beacheads and to make sure that my advances were strong.  Despite this emphasis, the Allies advanced with what I felt was breathless speed.  Also, early on this campaign was meant primarily to attract and attrition Japanese assets, an objective which was handsomely met.  The Japanese lost BBs Musashi and Yamato there, which crippled IJN battleship power and made me feel much more secure about any base where the Allies had BBs.  The Japanese also lost plenty of aircraft there.  (The Allies lost ships and planes, too, but the payoff was well worth it).

[Cap Mandrake]

This is a great idea...we can goad them into mutual verbal combat to the death in the soon to be blood-soaked arena [:D]


Just kidding. It has been a game with wild swings. I first looked in on Dan's game when he getting the tar kicked out of him in Australia. I could not beleive that the entire continent seemed lost and it was so early in the game. I was impressed with his degree of optimism (if that is the right word [:)]) when the situation seemed almost hopeless. Then I was distracted a bit by my battles with the Homeowners Assn. and when I thought my housekeepr was stealing my brandy...and when I came back he is sailing what seemed like the entire USN half way around the world through Jap-infested waters, ostensibly to land in the Phillipines. [X(]

As they say...Holy Mary mother of God!

[tocaff]

Reading both of your AARs has been entertaining and I've learned things from both of your successes and failures.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: tocaff

Reading both of your AARs has been entertaining and I've learned things from both of your successes and failures.

Hi Todd, I would just like to second that comment.

I was Dan's previous opponent and threw the towel in July 44. Congratulations to John for pushing him much harder than I did, and to Dan for coming back strongly after things had looked grim......[&o]

[John 3rd]

To say that the swings in this campaign were wild is an understatement!  There was very little---war in the balance---I was massively on the attack, there was a short pause, and then suddenly Iwo Jima was under assault.  Crazy.

THAT is the turning point of the war.  Iwo Jima.  I had an Infantry Division two days from landing when Dan came ashore.  Had I got it there he would never have taken the island.  Remember the Brigade and Base Forces held the troops up for WEEKS!  Just imagine had there been another 430 AS present.  It was beyond my imagination. 

Were the Philippines your original objective? 

[JeffroK]

I started to read both AAR when i saw a "Hokkaido 1943 Invasion" title
 
Immediate thought was what bloody fool did that!! [&:]
 
Ended up being a war winning foolish idea!!  [8D]
 
I have read about 90% of both AAR now, and make a comment from a pure AI playing perspective.
 
Both have missed opportunities to totally wipe the other off the map, a number of times.
 
And both had legitimate reasons, from the limited view they had, to follow the paths they did. Herein lies the beauty of a PBEM.
 
Well done guys, it has been an entralling pair of AAR to follow.[&o][&o]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

To say that the swings in this campaign were wild is an understatement!  There was very little---war in the balance---I was massively on the attack, there was a short pause, and then suddenly Iwo Jima was under assault.  Crazy.

THAT is the turning point of the war.  Iwo Jima.  I had an Infantry Division two days from landing when Dan came ashore.  Had I got it there he would never have taken the island.  Remember the Brigade and Base Forces held the troops up for WEEKS!  Just imagine had there been another 430 AS present.  It was beyond my imagination. 

Were the Philippines your original objective? 

Yes. My original and long-standing plan was to invade Luzon. The operation was dubbed "Red Planet." I wanted to bring enough troops, aircraft, fuel, and supplies to "colonize" Luzon - ie, to establish a force strong enough that it could survive on its own a long time. Alternatives were Iwo Jima and Hokkaido. All troops involved were prepped for Marcus or Eniwetok to make sure there weren't any SigInt leaks.

The original hinged on the fact that you hadn't taken Iloilo yet. As my invasion fleet neared Iwo, I would make the final decision on where to land, and then transfer in P-38s and F-5s to Iloilo to protect the base and to recon Luzon's bases. However, just as I finished the invasion of Midway, you began paying serious attention to Luzon, sending in reinforcements. Then you invaded and took Iloilo.

By the time my invasion force left Midway, I was uncertain as to where to go - each passing day brought news of additional troops on Luzon. So as my fleets drew closer to Iwo, I had growing doubts. I don't recall exactly when I decided to hit Iwo, but it wasn't long before D-Day. I think Iwo was always my "second choice," and nothing happened to persuade me to switch to the third alternate, Hokkaido.

[String]

I've been an avid reader on both sides for a long time. As such i've tried to limit my advice to purely technical gameplay advice on both sides, if i gave any at all.

Knowing some stuff that both opponents did not made for some amusing moments, and one of such insanely close calls made me make a thread to comment on both AAR's at the same time. It didn't live long and I'm not sure if John and Canoerebel even noticed it. Let's just say that there was an moment before the india invasion took off that had me laughing in disbelief.

A great game and a great AAR on both sides. I just hoped that I could see the final effects of the southern chinese offensive but can't have it all, can we

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, String, I wonder how close we came to accidentally bumping into each other.  Not too long before John invaded India, I transferred a fairly strong carrier group (all RN fleet CVs plus US CVs Bennington and Ticonderoga) from the Coral Sea to the Bay of Bengal.  I was nervous about the transfer, because I figured the KB might be somewhere around Java.  So I stopped sending transports from India to Australia so there wouldn't be "bait" that might draw the KBs attention.  The cruise by the Allied carriers was completely uneventful, but they may have been only a week or so ahead of the entire Japanese Navy.  On the other hand, my halting all transport traffic made it possible for John to sail undetected. 
 
I wish we could "merge" our two files for sometime around October 15 or 20 and see how close we were to bumping into each other.
 
Given John's proclivity for dividing his CVs into carrier divisions, this battle might not have been one sided, either.  I think the Allied carriers would have exacted a heavy toll, but probably would have come out on the short end of things.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, String, I wonder how close we came to accidentally bumping into each other.  Not too long before John invaded India, I transferred a fairly strong carrier group (all RN fleet CVs plus US CVs Bennington and Ticonderoga) from the Coral Sea to the Bay of Bengal.  I was nervous about the transfer, because I figured the KB might be somewhere around Java.  So I stopped sending transports from India to Australia so there wouldn't be "bait" that might draw the KBs attention.  The cruise by the Allied carriers was completely uneventful, but they may have been only a week or so ahead of the entire Japanese Navy.  On the other hand, my halting all transport traffic made it possible for John to sail undetected. 

I wish we could "merge" our two files for sometime around October 15 or 20 and see how close we were to bumping into each other.

Given John's proclivity for dividing his CVs into carrier divisions, this battle might not have been one sided, either.  I think the Allied carriers would have exacted a heavy toll, but probably would have come out on the short end of things.

That may be true but you may have instead run into the transports. Think about the implications of that. John's counterstrike against Iwo was narrowly headed off by your well timed realization that it was exposed. I really wish you could put the two AAR's together by date because it would be interesting for the two of you to see how many times you were dead on about the other's intentions and how many times you were dead wrong

[Canoerebel]

Yes, I remember when I had a really, really, really bad feeling that something big was about to hit Iwo.  At the time, I had just decided to move my carriers from Sikhalin Island to the western Aleutians as I had some concerns about a raid in that area.  I had more carriers somewhere around Wake Island.  I ended up sending all of them to Iwo as fast as possible, and they barely arrived in time to persuade John to halt his strike.  He still managed to sink CVE Corregidor, but IIRC he had some glitches - weather keeping alot of LBA grounded, and his carrier refueling and thus remaining out of range - that really took the teeth out of his strike.  But my main worry was that he might be sending "the kitchen sink" after Iwo, including a humongous invasion force.  Iwo was then very low on supplies - less than 25,000 - and it made me sick to think how losing that island would eliminate the fighter sweeps that have been so successful over Tokyo.

[John 3rd]

You got an IMMENSELY lucky break that day!  I had over 1,500 LBA and the ENTIRE Fleet (another 900-1,000 planes) that were all going to hit Iwo.  I would have crushed the AF, ships cruising around the atoll (read BBs), and would have sunk a large number of ships sheltered into impossible to have harbor.

I was so mad...just thinking about it raises my bloodpressure.

Had I known you had decided to keep bunch of mobile troops in India I would never have gone through with the landing.  Michael had the original Idea as I was chatting with him for the next place to strike at.  The thought germinated into an invasion, and then suddenly the whole Fleet was with it and I felt that I couldn't do wrong since the idea was SO CRAZY.  Ahhhh....well....

The biggest thing that I can say about the ground side is that you have never actually gone for the throat.  When I was withdrawing steadily from Australia you never tried to cutoff my shipping so I escaped with 500,000 troops.  It was a group of 3-4 Inf Div from Australia that saved Hokkaido from loss and served to drive you back off the island.  The next time was all those land units in Malaya and Indochina.   I should have lost my entire army there but was allowed to pull out 25-40 landunits fully intact.  They were beat-up but lived to fight again.  Those units mostly make-up the India Invasion Force.

Why didn't you simply jump from Singapore to Java?  Had you done that I would have had nowhere else to go and my economy would have collapsed again.  Michael will tell you that it spent most of 1943 frozen.

That brings up Strategic Bombardment.  Most Allied players never realize that the key to killing Japan's economy is OIL.  Your resource campaign has banged me up but I still have several months worth stockpiled in the Home Islands.  Since early-1943 I've never had enough oil.  My economy has always been one moth from collapse due to that.  I say this now because it doesn't matter anymore since this is done exept for some heavyset woman singing...

[&o][&o][&o] 

[Canoerebel]

This is my second game, but the first in which strategic bombing has been really active.  Since I'm still pretty green, I have no idea what I'm doing half the time.  Alot of what I'm doing is sort of intuitive.  As for targeting resources, Miller made an offhand comment in my game with him that Allied bombing had really affected his resources and that it posed a problem; voila, I've focused my strategic bombing on resources - and to a lesser extent fighter production - in this game. 
 
You focus too much on your own weakenesses while overestimating the Allied position:
 
1) Australia:  This continent had been cutoff for a year and most of its shipping was gone; supplies and fuel were low.  When the Americans went north to Hokkaido in late '43, it took them far, far away from Australia.  The Aussies had to fend for themselves completely and could not call for the cavalry if the Indians showed up.  While I was pretty sure that you were withdrawing across the continent, you left enough force to serve as major roadblocks that I would have to send a large part of my ground troops inland to fight my way through.  Had I done so, and had this been ruse on your part so that you could re-invade on the SE coast, I might've lost the continent.  Finally, it suited me to have as many Japs as possible in Australia.  As for landing behind you to cutoff your troops, I didn't have ships to carry my guys.
 
2)  Your view of SEAC continues to suprise me.  The Japs have gracious plenty troops and could've held SEAC much, much longer.  Since Singapore (and to a lesser extent Saigon and Bangkok) are critical, I had to assume that you would do everything possible to stop me.  An example of the reasons I sometimes had to move slowly:  It takes time to prep troops for a target; so when I invaded Georgetown with a massive army and then took the base, I was surrounded by towns with sizeable Jap contingents.  I didn't realize, of course, that you were prepared to evacuate as soon as I moved; from my perspective I was surrounded by hostile armies.  If I moved toward one city, I would weaken my beachhead at Georgetown and invite counterattack.  Moreover, before moving to lay siege to another base, I needed to do some prep.  So the move out of the beachhead at Georgetown was slow, but for good reasons.
 
3)  You should've left a massive army at Singapore to fight to the death.  Judging by what happened at Malacca, it would have taken the Allies months to vanquish the enemy.  It would've bought you alot of time at the expense of relatively "cheap" squads.  Had you held Singapore in strength, the Allies would probably still be down there fighting rather than up in China.
 
4)  As for why I didn't move on the DEI after taking Singapore, I thought the China plan much more powerful and less risky.  You'd had alot of time to arrange your DEI defenses, but I figured China would catch you by surprise.  Moreover, I could bomb most of the DEI resource centers, and taking big bases on the China coast would allow me to impose a blockade on Japan and to base B-29s very close to southern Japan.