The whole discussion of “chances of collapse” of the Med and West Fronts in WIR, in my humble opinion, begs the critical issue. The Allies made landings in Africa, Italy and France on the dates they day for the simplest of reasons; these dates were the absolute earliest possible given the circumstances. Stalin pushed for action to divert German resources from the East and the Western Allies did the very best they could to help.
It had little to do with troops; it was purely a question of logistics. The Allies had approximately two years to stockpile supplies in England for Overlord and the subsequent campaigns in France and Germany and STILL “ran out of gas” (Patton was denied resources in favor of Monty if you recall.)
Let’s review. The British merchant marine fleet was ravaged by the U-boat campaign losing a significant percentage of its shipping tonnage, to the point where England was on the brink of starvation. England had been a large net importer of foodstuffs for decades before the beginning of the war. The lack of shipping tonnage was only redressed when US marine construction went into high gear and it took well into 1942-3 before increased shipping space permitted even a modest effort like Torch.
The Battle of the Atlantic didn’t turn until ’43 (May?) and it took until ’44 to effectively write down/suppress the U-boat fleet to a level where it wouldn’t threaten Overlord. After Torch, Italy was selected in part because relatively modest forces could be deployed (Italy is after all a peninsula) which would require equally modest levels of supply. What the allies didn’t take into account was restricted space (not to mention absolutely superb defensive terrain) doesn’t consume as many forces to DEFEND either. “Smiling Albert” gave ‘em all they could handle ‘til the war was over.
As the US Army was built up numbers in England (and green troops with only basic training behind them were seasoned) continually increasing levels of maintenance supplies (think chow, toilet tissue, etc.) consumed a greater and greater portion of the shipping tonnage becoming available due to new construction (i.e. “Liberty ships”).
Next, the allies were novices at airborne as well as amphibious operations and ventured Torch as soon as they did only because the probability of significant resistance during the landing phase was nil (Vichy French forces not being enthusiastic about having someone actually SHOOT at them). In addition, the relatively modest number of landing craft then available could handle an operation that size.
Even Husky was replete with snafus (the US Navy shot down more allied air transport than the Germans did). Also, Sicily presented the Axis with an “over water” (Straits of Messina) supply and reinforcement problem. Transit time for this kind of material is time consuming enough but the load/unload problem can be at times worse. It’s not just the number of supply ships you can send but the dock facilities required for unloading them and the ability to then transfer the goods to truck/rail for distribution, a nightmare all its own. One of the key items stockpiled in England for Overlord was railroad locomotives!
The Allies could have landed brigade/divisional sized units in France (remember Dieppe?) any time they wanted, maybe even a corps. However, the invasion of continental Europe via the northwest (on a strategically viable level) required MASS armies. The force/space ratio demanded this. (The Germans learned about force/space the hard way in Russia.) The Allies couldn’t sustain a force on this order of magnitude any sooner than they did. Even then the supply and manpower situations were touch and go. (It wasn’t any sudden awakening of the concept of civil rights in the Pentagon that sparked the formation of black combat units in the Army.)
The other element required for Overlord’s execution was of course complete dominance in the air. It took until mid ’44 before Luftwaffe attrition (pilots being the key element) suffered in Russia and in defense of German airspace (the 8th Airforce’s major contribution) permitted the kind of crushing ground support by allied air that was so critical to success. German units moving to counter-attack the beachhead could only move at night to avoid being shredded.
I believe it to be a certainty the Russians get to Berlin with or without Overlord. The British/US presence simply hastened the inevitable. I think it highly unlikely that nuclear weapons would have EVER been used in Europe by the allies. The Japanese were an acceptable target racially (think relocation camps) that the population of Europe would not have been.
WWII in Europe WAS the War in Russia. The relatively modest number of US COMBAT troops (millions of men perhaps but the ratio of support to combat troops in the US Army was staggering) in Europe pales in comparison to the forces employed by either Germany or Russia. The US economic/production contribution had a far greater impact on the war in Europe than US combat forces did.
In order that the game reflect accurately the effect of the Western Allies on the Russian/German conflict (not to mention issues of playability) I would propose the following model be adopted:
1. Maintenance by the German player of forces levels equal to the historic levels in the West and the Med., reduce the chance of “an event” in either theater to ABSOLUTE ZERO any time before such events actually occurred. (Number of squads, AFV’s, aircraft, etc.) No “random numbers”, no “commander checks” just sum and do an equal to/greater than and it’s over. (A little “alarm” to warn the player he’s short might be nice.) Modify the sum by replacement level if you wish.
I cannot envision any circumstance where a change of commander on either side would have accelerated these “events” by so much as a day. Until approximately mid ’43 the Germans used France essentially to rest and refit units beat up in Russia for a simple reason. That being, such units (along with the green/garrison outfits then present) were perfectly capable of denying the Allies a strategic foothold.
2. After historic event dates require the German player to significantly beef up force levels to “hold off” such events.
E.g. what would one suppose would happen to Overlord if up “to snuff” Liebstandarte, Das Reich and a half dozen veteran infantry divisions, in addition to those already there, (supported by enough air to even contest the airspace) were present in France in June ‘44? The Germans may well have lost the war due to material required for the construction of POW camps.
Remember the allies had COMPLETE intelligence on the German OOB in France and Eisenhower still drafted a mea culpa for use in case the landings failed.
3. AFTER HISTORIC dates reduction by the German player of force levels BELOW historic/augmented levels should make event occurrence very probable proportional to the “shortfall” achieved. E.g. at/after June ’44 if the German player’s presence in France equals historic levels in June ’44 then a successful Overlord should be a near certainty.
I believe this model would be fast and easy to code/test and would tickle the players to death. This is a dandy little game and fun to play on the German side (too easy to win with the Russians) that has worn incredibly well. It’s so good it doesn’t NEED up-to-date graphics or any of the other “must haves” other, more current, games feature.
The volume of traffic on the forums speaks eloquently to the inherent appeal of the CORE design. Let the player focus on the Russian-German conflict without sweating bullets every time he moves a unit into or out of what were in fact relatively minor theaters of operation or, God forbid, lose the game due to some “die roll” in Tunisia.
Comments welcomed.
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Rick Bancroft
Semper Fi
