'stuffing' the border

[brian brian]

The 'stuff' is commonly discussed in terms of whether it prevents the Germans from declaring war on May/Jun 1941. I think analysis needs to go beyond that point...the stuff will not permanently keep the Germans from declaring the war. The question is, on which turn will the teeter-totter tip the German way? True, maybe they are shut down in May/Jun. But what happens if they draw two '4' chits that turn, the Russians draw a '1', and two new German MECH and a half-dozen INF arrive as Jul/Aug reinforcements? Did the stuff still work then?

Also, building air is cost-effective, for the Russians at least, in that they can build a 2 BP pilot and put it in each of their antique planes they start with for a 2 BP garrison point. Not the most cost-effective use of pre-war Russian BP to be sure, but if you can get your opponent to surrender in 1941 via a successful stuff...

The stuff prevents what is an extremely powerful Axis strategy that they did not try in real life, but is a common posit of history analyses...what if the Germans completely ignored the Mediterranean and instead hired the Italians as another ally to invade Russia with, but on a much more massive scale than real life? This is the type of Operation Barbarossa where people bemoan Russia's doomed fate. This is not a historical Barbarossa, where a lot of German resources were in the Med (Luftwaffe strength in the Med was at 2000 air-frames during several critical phases of Barbarossa) and fighting the Battle of the Atlantic. If the Axis build on a single-minded goal of invading Russia and even evacuate Libya rather than reinforcing it, of course they should do much better in Russia than historically.

[Nikolai II]

So, the only way to get a historical '41 barbarossa is to explore extremely gamey solutions?

Bleh.

Is there any optional rule that says "garrison rule doesn't apply to Germany" for Barbarossa purposes? It seems as if that would be a very useful addition. Just call it "Hitler underestimates the strength of the Russian army" and it seems like the historical option

[rkr1958]

Thanks. So this strategy will "succeed" 98% of the time if Russia declares war on Japan and 60%+ of the time if they don't. The fact that the border stuffing strategy chances of success approach near certainty when Russia goes to war with Japan versus remaining neutral seems counter intuitive to me.

By "succeed" do you mean that Russia will survive or that the Allies will win? If the latter then it would seem that after a while you'd only want to play games against Russian opponents who agreed not to employ this surefire strategy.

[Cheesehead]

By "succeed" do you mean that Russia will survive or that the Allies will win? If the latter then it would seem that after a while you'd only want to play games against Russian opponents who agreed not to employ this surefire strategy

Exactly....unless the Axis player prefers to go to Spain and Gibralter in '41. Most of the European players seem to prefer this strategy, anyway. Maybe they decided this was the only way to approach Axis strategy since the stuff is so devastating to the Germans if they try to break it and fail in '41.

I would also agree that unless there is bad weather and short turns during the summer and fall turns of '41 and '42, Russia is most likely knocked off the European map from a '41 Barb. But using the stuff rule to fix this debatable problem is like quitting smoking by getting lung cancer.

Cheers

John

[paulderynck]

I have stuffed successfully in my last two games and the Germans attacked in JF42.

In the first one they drove the Russians off the European map except for the Caucasus and a pocket around Leningrad. But they made mistakes with Japan and ended up badly beaten as of JA45.

The second one is in progress and the Russians are holding a line from Yaroslavl to Rostov. Japan is in big trouble again. But US entry was late and Gibraltar fell, so the Axis may be able to hang in there and win with more than 14 objectives at game end. It will be a close run thing.

I have seen about 8 WiFFE games with 41 Barbs and the Axis won every one of them. It may well be that a 41 Barb means a likely Axis win and a 42 Barb means a likely Allied win. It may well be that rules could be improved to fix this issue. But even with the current rules, players can agree not to stuff and can adjust the objective levels required for victory. In the "pure" form of the game, players are supposed to bid for victory levels before commencing so that is the ultimate way to balance things with the current rules set.

All the games I've played were exciting, enjoyable contests with the final outcome in doubt until at least mid-44, if not longer. That is sufficient fun for me, I don't need to duplicate what the Germans did in 1941 or what the Allies did in 1944, for that matter, I just want to play an interesting, challenging, exciting game, - and I did.

[morgil]

If Germany can not attack USSR in 41 there are plenty other things they could do.
A focused effort on the German side can really cripple the CW economy, and there are plenty other countries to attack besides the USSR, like Turkey and on to the Middle east, Norway, Ireland for sheets'n'giggles, Portugal together with Japan, and that takes care of Southafrica, and 6 resources cut off from CW.
Condors in the North Atlantic and Færøys Gap can make for interesting convoychains..

What you seem to forget is the rock, paper, scissors structure of WiF, for every action there is a counteraction, example from latest game; CW takes a land impulse to rearrange the polish units and uses the HQ to flip up the units in Lodz, and Gues 'Muahaha' when the weather turns to rain, upon which Germany takes a navel and sinks 7 CP and damages several cruisers. Haha indeed.

[BallyJ]

I continue to be amazed that this great game continues to survive if it is as "BROCKEN" as you say????

[Zorachus99]

ORIGINAL: Cheesehead

I just want to let you know that the stuff is alive and well. It effectively removes the chance of doing Barb 41.

I agree with you on this, Justin. I think the Stuff rule is important for 1940 Barbs, which are rare, but stuffing in 1941 is just unrealistic. It creates a game that is likely to end in 1941. PBEM games only makes the issue worse because the Russians usually can see what the German chits look like. When I play USSR I usually make it clear to my opponents that I won't attempt to stuff in 1941. I recommend this gentlemens agreement before starting a game... call it a house rule.

Cheers

John

This is clearly what must be done at the beginning of a game.

[Zorachus99]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Zorachus99

ORIGINAL: sajbalk

3) Surrender as Japan and thus remove all the MIL, wasting the USSR build points. You would want to do this in M/A.

This option is not in MWif

I am not sure what you mean by surrender.[&:] If you are referring to the the ability of the USSR or Japan to force a mutual peace under certain conditions, then that is part of MWIF (though not coded yet).

some erratta allows Japan to surrender Manchuria thereby making USSR at peace. This causes all Mil to be moved to the forcepool to be placed as reserves when USSR becomes active. This is some new annual rule some such. I'm sure Patrice or others know it.

It's not RAW, so I'm pretty sure it's not in MWIF.

[lavisj]

ORIGINAL: BallyJ

I continue to be amazed that this great game continues to survive if it is as "BROCKEN" as you say????

Well, the question we should ask ourselve, is why we see so little stuffs in 41?
Because once one look at the math objectively, it seems to me that the chance of Russia stuffing are greater than the chance of Russia surviving AND coming back in force from a 41 Barb.
I would venture three possibilities:
1) The Russian player did not do the math and consider that the chance of stuffing are too low.
2) The Russian player does not want to have to wait until 42 or 43 to fight.
3) Group traditions. Each group of player falls into "standard"practices.

But really when looking at it objectively, Germany is rellying on a good amount of chance to be able to break the pact.
For Germany to be able to launch a 41 Barb it needs to do the following:
1) Abandon all hope of even a limited BoA.
2) Limit his air force by putting on the map all its crappy reserve planes, and only building F2 and L2 (ok the last part is not a big hardhip).
3) Build all its garrison efficient units (MIL, GAR) which of course are not the best suited for a Barb.
4) Bring to the border almost all this units, leaving the garrison of the West almost exclusively to the Italians.

Germany also should be playing with City Base Volunteers which add 7 points of garrison.

And then the following must happen:
1) Germany must take limited losses in Poland and France.
2) Germany must be getting significantly above twice the number of chits then the Russian player (some being hidden and unknown).

So, Germany is rellying on factors that are mostly out of its control (die roll on attacks and air combat in France, chit pulled).

So, if you are playing Germany and the Russian player is a potential "stuffer", what are your choices:

1) You prepare for Babr, evaluate the situation in SO40 and either pursue, if your losses were small and your chits good. But even then you are not certain of the end resul, as you are still relient on the chit draws of ND, JF and MA.
2) You switch to a different strategy. At this point, you have lost the SeaLion option. You have lost the strong BoA option, but you can still go after Gibraltar.

So, what Justin is saying and Hakon too, is that in light of all this, it would seem more reasonable for Germany to start planning on a 41 Med / 42 Barb from the start as this is much more efficient than having to switch mid course.

This does not mean that 41 Barb will not happen. But the Russian player is the one leading the dance in this case. In a 41 Med / 42 Barb, the German is leading the dance.

Is the game broken? I don't know if that qualifies as broken.
Is the stuff a sure thing? No, but it is if the German player follows "historical" german builds (some subs, some troops to help Italyin N.Africa)

Now, of course the rules allow for conditions in which the German player can plan from the start for considerably increase its chances of success in breaking the pact. But those actions must be taken at the very begining:
1) Have IT DoW Lithuania and/Or Hungary.
2) Have IT give its build points to Germany so that Germany can increase its garrison. But IT will have to defend the west with very limited ressources, and I am not sure if the solution would be worse than the problem.

Well, the point of all this. If the Russian and German player both have done the math and a rational analysis of the stuff situation and probabilities, then most if not all game should follow a Med or Sealion strategy.

Jerome

[lavisj]

ORIGINAL: morgil

If Germany can not attack USSR in 41 there are plenty other things they could do.
A focused effort on the German side can really cripple the CW economy, and there are plenty other countries to attack besides the USSR, like Turkey and on to the Middle east, Norway, Ireland for sheets'n'giggles, Portugal together with Japan, and that takes care of Southafrica, and 6 resources cut off from CW.
Condors in the North Atlantic and Færøys Gap can make for interesting convoychains..

What you seem to forget is the rock, paper, scissors structure of WiF, for every action there is a counteraction, example from latest game; CW takes a land impulse to rearrange the polish units and uses the HQ to flip up the units in Lodz, and Gues 'Muahaha' when the weather turns to rain, upon which Germany takes a navel and sinks 7 CP and damages several cruisers. Haha indeed.

Morgil, you are at the heart of the problem.
There are plenty of things Germany can do instead of a 41 Barb. And those have good chances of success. The problem is: at which point does Germany goes for those strategies?
Germany must decide at the latest with the build phase of SO40.But by then it is already too late to build a strong sub fleet. It is already too late to build a large bomber phase to strat bomb England. It is too late to build ships for SeaLion.
It is not too late to invase Turkey, settle the balkans if not yet settled. But of course you can still go after spain / Portugal / gibraltar, because you have time to build the necessary units in time.

On the other hand, if you wait until MJ 41 to see if you can break the stuff and realize that you indeed can't (it was close and you failed), then you have no more options but the balkans one. To late to hurt the CW in any significant fashion.

So, yes there are option for Germany beside a Barb 41. But Germany, to be successfull at it, must decide way before the result of the stuff is certain (if it prepared for a 41 Barb).

Basically the cost /benefit analysis dictates, that Germany should not try and push a stuff against Russia if its chits are not superb, and/or he took heavy losses in Poland / France.

Jerome

[morgil]

So when does it become obvious that USSR is attempting a stuffing of the border ? Considering that they have to DOW Japan, and wage a halfhearted war, build GAR, MIL and and ship them to the border along with their flying junk, I would assume this to be pretty early. Maybe one of you who has done this can tell us the numbers, and timing involved.
Also it would be pretty nice to see what would happen if Germany was to abandon Barbarossa altogether and do a Sitzkrieg.
You that can do the numbers, what would happen if in 42, instead of DOWing USSR, Germany would apply its own stuffing, and prevent the war from taking place, how long would it be before USSR could be certain to manage a DOW ? Some time in 43 im sure ?

It would make for a pretty boring war, but hey if nobody dies its a good war, right ? [;)]

[brian brian]

I don't think the Russians necessarily have to start a war with Japan and build the MIL to successfully stuff. Some might disagree; I fully support the new Russo/Japan optional peace and always play with it now. Also as I mentioned earlier, it in part depends on how you define a successful 'stuff' ... is it only a success if you completely prevent a DoW until 1942? What about Sep/Oct 41? Is it a success if you force the Germans to build nothing but garrison efficient units and put the vast majority of them on the eastern front, giving the CW much more freedom of action to say, build a big northern convoy line and deploy a BEF-Russia when the time comes, but then the Russians lose most of the pre-war units?

The sitzkrieg option is the flip side of this coin for sure. I'd gladly trade a no-41-stuff for a German promise for a no-43-sitz. The end-game in WiF is boring compared to the beginning and middle, particularly if there are several hundred counters in central Poland. I'd rather face a 41 Barb as the Russians, any time, I'm not afraid of that.

[rkr1958]

ORIGINAL: morgil

So when does it become obvious that USSR is attempting a stuffing of the border ? Considering that they have to DOW Japan, and wage a halfhearted war, build GAR, MIL and and ship them to the border along with their flying junk, I would assume this to be pretty early. Maybe one of you who has done this can tell us the numbers, and timing involved.
Also it would be pretty nice to see what would happen if Germany was to abandon Barbarossa altogether and do a Sitzkrieg.
You that can do the numbers, what would happen if in 42, instead of DOWing USSR, Germany would apply its own stuffing, and prevent the war from taking place, how long would it be before USSR could be certain to manage a DOW ? Some time in 43 im sure ?

It would make for a pretty boring war, but hey if nobody dies its a good war, right ? [;)]

So maybe a threat of a boring game on the eastern Front (i.e., Sitzkrieg on the Russian Front) is the counter to the border stuff. Personally, I rather go down playing an interesting and fun game than win playing a passive and dull game.

[Skanvak]

Wahou, when we played it 20 years ago, we thought it was obvious that the garrison rule applied only to Russia to compell it to respect the pact and allow an historical French campaign. So we played it as if Germany can declare war when it wants.

Does the rules changed that much?

[lavisj]

ORIGINAL: Skanvak

Wahou, when we played it 20 years ago, we thought it was obvious that the garrison rule applied only to Russia to compell it to respect the pact and allow an historical French campaign. So we played it as if Germany can declare war when it wants.

Does the rules changed that much?

Yes, 20 years ago was the 4th Edition of the game I think (it is when I first played the game), and you are correct in that the garrison ration only applied to the Russians. There were no pact chits eithe, it was a straight garrison ratio based on units present.
Germany could always declare war at will.

Jerome

[michaelbaldur]

when I play USSR. I just allow Germany to dow in 41 .....

it will give USSR a year of x2 production .(we played with Hitlers war option)... and Germany won´t do some scazy things .... like Gibratar or uk ..... or suez ....

then USSR just take the beating for the allied ....

if you wait for 42 .... you will face a must stronger germany .... and you have produced only a little in 41 vs the big german productions

42 barbarossa just give more beating to USSR ....

[WarHunter]

To stuff or not to stuff, that is the question. Whether the German player approves or not, it is a choice that cannot be held against anyone who plays the soviet. We have a rules set that has been revised over the years. Anyone remember when HQ units could be loaded into air transports and flown forward during mud weather. When mud shutdown HQ movement. That was a bad time to be the soviet player.

The flow of the game beginning to about mid-game is with the axis, but like the tide, sooner or later the allies get a chance to control the flow. The stuff is just a facet of control. The german player who lets the stuff control his choices, is lost and without hope. The only real question that matters at that point. Will the german player man up and go to the bunker, or just quit, for that is where the game is headed.

[lavisj]

ORIGINAL: WarHunter

To stuff or not to stuff, that is the question. Whether the German player approves or not, it is a choice that cannot be held against anyone who plays the soviet.

Agreed, if both sides did not house rule the stuff, then it is only fair for the USSR to use the stuffing option as a strategy.
Then you would have no issue with IT DoW Hungary in order to make sure that Germany can break the pact in 41.

The flow of the game beginning to about mid-game is with the axis, but like the tide, sooner or later the allies get a chance to control the flow. The stuff is just a facet of control.

So, really the german player looses control of the flow as soon as Russia starts to stuff, provided Russia is, like in most cases, able to stuff with good chances.

The german player who lets the stuff control his choices, is lost and without hope. The only real question that matters at that point. Will the german player man up and go to the bunker, or just quit, for that is where the game is headed.

Well, the German player does not have a choice. The stuff does control its choices, because of its consequences. Although I am uncertain to the fate of a Germany that failed to break the pact and spent 41 not doing much (I will know after our current game), I would venture that in most cases, the prospects aren't good.
[For the moment I only have 1 data point].

Jerome

[Cheesehead]

Agreed, if both sides did not house rule the stuff, then it is only fair for the USSR to use the stuffing option as a strategy.
Then you would have no issue with IT DoW Hungary in order to make sure that Germany can break the pact in 41.

Jerome, could you explain how that works, as far as helping GE break the pact in '41? Also, is IT DOWing Lithuania still an option? I thought that it was decided that IT cannot cross the GE/USSR border until GE and USSR are at war. Therefore, IT cannot put USSR units in enemy ZOC unless they are adjacent to Lithuanian border.

Thanks

John