Razing the Reich

[randallw]

Yeah, Pelton's in trouble. [:D] Wonder how long this one will go.

[Flaviusx]

Pelton should at least grind here and force Michael to burn through his armaments. But he did the same thing to me when we played, just gave up the ghost early and started digging in way too early. I had 300k armaments in the pool going into mud in our game and was also over 5 million and starting to blow up. There's no reason to stop this early. The Wehrmacht can conduct punishing deliberate attritional attacks almost all the way to blizzard, and maintain a sky high loss ratio even if it doesn't move the lines forward much or pocket anything.

By stopping so soon Michael might well reach 6 million come blizzard.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: randallw
Yeah, Pelton's in trouble. [:D] Wonder how long this one will go.

Yes, he probably has strong headaches whenever he gets a turn back from Michael. The Rshev thrust alone looks like a blunt spear (though Flavius is right), but look at the Panzers gathering near Tula. Maybe Pelton can come up with one of his famous surprises still?

[Klydon]

Outstanding job by Michael. I think Pelton got a bit too predictable from his earlier games and Michael thought up some counters for it and took a chance Pelton would continue to roll out basically the same plan. I am sure Pelton will have learned a lot from this game and try to come up with some other strategies for the future where he is not so predictable.

It is interesting as I happen to have a German vs AI game going and what the AI has a tendency to do is to pack the Leningrad area with troops and sort of leave the south open these days. I got there a little too quick and did a direct thrust to spoil the strategy, but another turn or two more and it would have been very ugly indeed. I also probably throw a few more troops at Leningrad than most people do since PG4 gets an extra panzer corps and the entire AGN line starts at the north edge of Lake Ilmen and goes north from there.

I also agree with Flaviusx that Pelton should at least grind some on any Russian troops he can find to weaken moral and cause high losses because of low moral already.

Pelton also likes to bring offensive action to a close early to set up his winter line though, so that may be what he is working on too. Either way, he is going to face a very harsh blizard counteroffensive at this point.

[Michael T]

End Soviet T17 (9 Oct 1941)

Well, as can be seen from the map Pelton has withdrawn a long way from the Russian front lines right across the map. I must admit his strategy from T15 to now has me scratching my head as to what he is up to. I honestly expected a much harder fight for survival in 1941. The failed right hook has had an even greater affect on his plans than I thought. He seems to have given up any hope of delivering a telling blow in 1941 from about T14.

I do not expect I will be able to do much to him in the blizzard as I suspect he will just run. By the start of the blizzard I should be close to an OOB of 6.5 million. Maybe I will have 7.5 million by the start of summer 1942. I guess he is banking on a great 42 summer campaign, he will need it. Otherwise maybe he is going to go defensive from now on. Either way this game is well within my grasp and I expect to win it quite handsomely. But it will take some time. I have no real offensive capability until 1943. It just depends on where on the map I start the drive back to Germany from.

More maps at the end of the mud turns (T21)

Stats

Sov OOB 5.33
Sov Cas 2.06
Sov Dis 0.748
Sov Man 2660
Tr Pool 228
Tr Units 141
Tr Repair 31

Ger OOB 3.39
Ger Cas 0.502
Ger Dis 0.325
Op AFV 1468

[Flaviusx]

Wow.

Red Army is just going to blow up now. You might even run into supply issues in 42, try not to lose any more HI.

I think sitting tight is the right way to go. Frankly, you don't even need to run a full bore blizzard counteroffensive. That's just going to get you out of your forts and terrain features and strain your logistics. Keep the rifle divisions sitting tight and send out your cavalry and tank brigades forward to maintain contact with him and encourage him to keep retreating. When March hits, your mobile units can fade back to the interior and make him waste time taking back this buffer zone. You won't get many guards this way, but whatever. He's not going to get anywhere either, and then you just wait until 43 to roll out Red Army 2.0.

Pelton just doesn't get the attrition or grinding part of the game at all. Axis can easily maintain 5:1+ loss ratios until blizzard in 41 if they just keep pounding away. Deliberate assaults with the landsers are no joke. The worst thing you can do is what he's doing and give the Soviets a free ride. He's not pressuring your replacement situation at all. Your armament pools may never bottom out, either.

[timmyab]

Wow, this looks really bad for Pelton.
I do think he was way too passive in the center here.As in chess you should usually aim to take control of the center early on.Going all out for Leningrad when it's heavily defended is like driving your army into a cul de sac.
The main thing this game illustrates for me though is the urgent need to address the Soviet run away tactic in the South and to a lesser extent the center.It's far too powerful a tool.
Still well played Michael.

[juret]

subscribed. great game

i am sure pelton got some plans. Dont underestimate him.

42 will be fun

[Flaviusx]

ORIGINAL: timmyab

Wow, this looks really bad for Pelton.
I do think he was way too passive in the center here.As in chess you should usually aim to take control of the center early on.Going all out for Leningrad when it's heavily defended is like driving your army into a cul de sac.
The main thing this game illustrates for me though is the urgent need to address the Soviet run away tactic in the South and to a lesser extent the center.It's far too powerful a tool.
Still well played Michael.

Yeah, and if the Soviet doesn't run away in the south, what then? I'm not seeing anything here about the urgent need to address the stupid Lvov opener.

The only thing the Soviet can do in the south is run. Against a good German opponent a forward defense is suicide.

What this game illustrates for me is that the right hook is a bad idea against a player who is prepared for it. And also that you can't put all your eggs in one basket and ignore the attritional grind. There is absolutely no reason for this early withdrawal and wrapping up operations several turns before mud. Michael has played well, but this particular error is completely unforced and purely a decision, and a bad one, on Pelton's part. He just gave up. He indeed did the exact same thing when I played him. (And let me hold a line up north as far west as Pskov-Velikiye Luki.) You can't stop pounding on the Soviet Union this early. It will grow by 100,000 men a turn if you leave it alone. That can be kept down to a dull roar with set piece attacks (which also will burn out the armaments pool) even if you cannot pocket or destroy units. Sheer grinding will prevent the Red Army from blowing up.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: timmyab
Going all out for Leningrad when it's heavily defended is like driving your army into a cul de sac.
The main thing this game illustrates for me though is the urgent need to address the Soviet run away tactic in the South and to a lesser extent the center.It's far too powerful a tool.

You say it yourself: A cul de sac. I think Pelton repeating this strategy again was unwise. And with that knowledge Michael flatly outplayed him. This Lake Ilmen right hook never stroke me as a brilliant idea because it offer SHC pretty much all possible advantages on a silver tablet: excellent defensive terrain, slow going and unsuitable for armor (needs less depth in defense, allows stronger main BTLs), a rather tight corridor that offers options only after going quite a distance and allows a constricted line of defense (unlike in the south, where the center of an offensive can slip some 10 hexes anytime)...
With the moment of surprise on his side, with some ruse or such that keeps the SHC off-guard, this tactic has allowed Pelton already spectacular successes. But without it yet inherent disadvantages...

The withdrawal in the south to more defensible terrain or more defense-worthy targets just mimics what an Axis player does in winter in the same area, and what is probably wisest with the present rules. So I wouldn't complain without knowing what the corresponding demand would be...

Besides Pelton has won spectacular victories with similar Russian withdrawals in place, but other strategies on his side. This one is a really un-Peltonish game. I really didn't expect him to retire already on 10/7/41...

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Sheer grinding will prevent the Red Army from blowing up.

Keep it from blowing up too fast... But causing 100k casualties with deliberate attacks isn't that easy, or is it? AI can do it with 120% moral setting, then its combat efficiency allows to make up for the lack of large pockets. But without benefits causing 100k in direct combat around LG, Rshev, Tula? Maybe better in the south? The lines look thin there, but maybe Pelton doesn't realize how thin? Or is demoralized? He could still shuffle his Panzers to the Kharkov-Rostov region and try to harvest a few small pockets in much better terrain until blizzard?

[Flaviusx]

Basically, the Axis can count on 2k losses per division retreated on average. Sometimes more if they rout. (And here it can pay to select a stack of defenders lacking a retreat path, as they will probably rout if forced to vacate the hex, and yield a rich haul of up to 10K losses. That's practically losing a whole division.) It may not be possible to arrange enough attacks to reach the 100k threshold, but I think they can get easily get half that. These are attacks designed strictly to grind the Red Army, bear in mind, not to set up pockets or whatever. Deliberate attacks, possibly supported by offensive reserves. 15-20 of those in a turn will produce 50k+ losses and at least slow down the growth of the Red Army.

At least as important: it forces an armament crunch on the Soviets. That crunch won't happen by itself, it must be forced on the Soviet by combat. When I played Pelton he left me with 300k armaments in the kitty going into mud. James had me bottomed out in the game I played against him at the same time, and he wasn't pocketing anything, he just kept slamming into my lines and grinding away and the Red Army was living hand to mouth on whatever armaments were produced each turn, forcing drastic economies even if manpower was available.

[timmyab]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
Yeah, and if the Soviet doesn't run away in the south, what then? I'm not seeing anything here about the urgent need to address the stupid Lvov opener.

I think you'd probably have to do the two things together.I play both sides so I'm wanting a balanced, exciting and historically plausible game.
You could avoid the worst of the Lvov opener just by adjusting the opening setup slightly.I'm not so certain how to force the SU to fight forward though under the current game system.A couple of ideas, speed up rail conversion if enemy is more than a certain distance away from the rail head.Increase the cost of railing industry.

ORIGINAL: janh
The withdrawal in the south to more defensible terrain or more defense-worthy targets just mimics what an Axis player does in winter in the same area, and what is probably wisest with the present rules. So I wouldn't complain without knowing what the corresponding demand would be...

Yes, I'm all in favor of forcing the Axis to fight forward in the blizzard as well.

[Klydon]

ORIGINAL: janh

ORIGINAL: timmyab
Going all out for Leningrad when it's heavily defended is like driving your army into a cul de sac.
The main thing this game illustrates for me though is the urgent need to address the Soviet run away tactic in the South and to a lesser extent the center.It's far too powerful a tool.

You say it yourself: A cul de sac. I think Pelton repeating this strategy again was unwise. And with that knowledge Michael flatly outplayed him. This Lake Ilmen right hook never stroke me as a brilliant idea because it offer SHC pretty much all possible advantages on a silver tablet: excellent defensive terrain, slow going and unsuitable for armor (needs less depth in defense, allows stronger main BTLs), a rather tight corridor that offers options only after going quite a distance and allows a constricted line of defense (unlike in the south, where the center of an offensive can slip some 10 hexes anytime)...
With the moment of surprise on his side, with some ruse or such that keeps the SHC off-guard, this tactic has allowed Pelton already spectacular successes. But without it yet inherent disadvantages...

The withdrawal in the south to more defensible terrain or more defense-worthy targets just mimics what an Axis player does in winter in the same area, and what is probably wisest with the present rules. So I wouldn't complain without knowing what the corresponding demand would be...

Besides Pelton has won spectacular victories with similar Russian withdrawals in place, but other strategies on his side. This one is a really un-Peltonish game. I really didn't expect him to retire already on 10/7/41...

Just about any strategy is going to be unwise when your opponent plans on you doing what you did. Don't you think the French would like a do-over from the 1940 campaign? They made assumptions about tanks and poor terrain and got torched when the Germans did the unexpected.

What Pelton did with the right hook was not only not unexpected, but actually hoped for and planned on by Michael T who knew Pelton's tendencies from previous games.

You simply can't repeat the same strategy over and over again and expect it to keep working like it did when it was initially employed and the enemy was surprised to see it.

The Germans loved the double evelopment manuver. It worked great early in the campaign. As time went along, it became less and less effective. Zhukov saw it coming in the Germans last gasp offensive of 1941 and reenforced his wings accordingly. Given how much the Germans loved this manuver, it wasn't hard to figure out that Kursk would be a major target for any German offensive in 1943. It failed miserably.

The right hook works well when it is unexpected. The huge issue here was it was expected and planned for by Pelton's opponent. Pelton tried it anyway and got his butt kicked for his troubles. Michael has shown it is possible to stop a German player that is predictable in making Leningrad a big 1941 target. Time will tell if the German players can come up some ideas to either make Leningrad a bit more unpredictable or to punish a Russian player who decides to go for the all out defense of Leningrad to the detriment of most anything else.

[Michael T]

I intend to chase him now with everything. Force him to retreat as far as possible and then try to hold as much ground in 42 as I can. I have so many trrops and arms that I can afford a stubborn resistance in 42. I doubt I will have to run again. I think his reterat in the North and Centre from the good terrain he had is a mistake. I won't under estimate him, even in the coming snow. The Red Army will be truely monsterous come 1943.

[Flaviusx]

There's some good terrain in the center and north worth grabbing, but advancing past the Narva and Pskov seems problematic to me once the weather turns. In the center unless you can push him all the way back to the landbridge you could end up in the open near and around Smolensk and this isn't an amazing place to defend in.

Down south is where things get dangerous once the weather clears up unless you can push him all the way back to the Dnepr. And that's a very long ways indeed.

If you go all out, you will burn through trucks like crazy, and trucks are going to be scarce in 42.

Bear in mind that unless you occupy the forts you have now they will decay amazingly fast in inclement weather. And digging in that weather is very tough now. That's what makes the south so dangerous: there's no real terrain there to help you once you're out of the fort belt.

The game has changed. I don't think the blizzard counteroffensive is as important now as it used to be. You can do amazingly well in it and still throw the game away in 42. (Look at Kamil's present game.) You're in a splendid position and need not take undue risks in the blizzard, besides taking some good defensive terrain up north (say, a line running from Pskov to Vitebsk, wich grabs back a lot of swamps and forests for you) it may be best to develop your present position and force him to crack it. Elsewhere, I'd pursue with just enough stuff to make him retreat, and most of it mobile forces that can scoot back. He wants to pull a Manstein on you is my guess, and it seems to me you don't need to hazzard this possibility.

[Michael T]

I will play it by ear. A cautious advance up to the snow. See what he does. Reassess at the start of the blizzard. My instinct is to go for the throat, but I must be wary until at least the blizzard starts. I want to maintain contact with him so I must pursue him. At this point I am confident I can drive him back to the Dniepr in the centre. The south will depend on a few things.

[mmarquo]

Michael,

My current Axis opponent did exactly what Pelton is doing except I lost Leningrad. I suggest you flog him relentlessly during the blizzard - no mercy. Be careful towards the end of the blizzard; my opponent caught me off guard in the spring and destroyed a large pocket of units (~100,000). However, I quickly recovered and now, in September 1943, my army is 10,000,000 strong: I have over 1,500,000 men in reserve and over 1,000,000 armaments in reserve; trucks have never been a problem. I receive over 100,000 men/week and I have so many that building more units is pointless. Roumania has surrendered, Prussia breached and it is almost all over.

The Axis player must knock out manpower locals which he has failed to do; he also failed to grind you, failed to pursue his attack; frankly you will be in Berlin by spring, 1944 and he can't stop you. During the blizzard attack his infantry more than armor even if he exposes it because of the replacement rate; do not forget to collect 500 APs so that you can build corps as soon as you are able. Another thing: he will build layers and belts of forts; the only support units which really matters are engineers. Everything else is of secondary concern; you can make a never ending mass of them and they are what is necessary to melt away the forts.

Good job.

[Michael T]

My kind of thinking Marquo

[Ketza]

Very interesting game. It seems to me the majority of Peltons success comes from newer Soviet players and whn he runs into players that have all the nuances down of playing the Soviet side down he is shut down.

In my own experience when I play as Soviets I rarely see a game go past blizzard. When I play as Axis I am attempting to break the trends of the "normal" game and am getting shut down rather quickly as most Soviet players seem to know the various ways to shut down the Axis in a rather consistent way. In a recent game I ran into a wall of Soviet stacks on he landbridge with CVs between 50 and 75 in level 2 entrenchments on turn 4. Still scratching my head over that one!