ORIGINAL: Hirohito
I send ten carriers to PH, not six.
You don't have ten carriers, you have six. You have an additional 2 CVL and 2 CVE, but these are of little account when it comes to dealing with the PH flak. The flak doesn't care how many planes are coming.
And I send every capital ship north of Taiwan. I don't just hit PH from the air, I bombard it too after the first air strike disables the USN's capital ships.
And how many sips do you lose to the Oahu-based CDs? I am running a little test of that now. It doesn't look good for the Japanese, and when you have completed your single bombardment of Pearl harbor you have a long, long way to go to reach a resupply port for those BBs. I frankly think you are now making it up as you go along.
Losses are minimal given that the US Navy is toast and Hawaii can probably be taken.
This is mere presumption. Actual play tells you that you are wrong. Losses are far from minimal because that nasty flak is still there, and under its cover PH regains its strength.
The reward is too large not to take this risk. The USN arrives to the battle piecemeal and they get blasted as they arrive, unless they runaway, but it takea a lot of guts not to go to the help of PH.
I thought the Allies would lose even if they knew this was your strategy? If they know it is your strategy, they ignore PH for the moment while it recovers from the initial blows and they concentrate against your lagging troop transports. If your fleet is busy trying to supress PH, who is protecting YOUR LOC against the "USN Larry?" Mr Hirohito, meet Mr Ottoman general, and welcome to the battle of the fixed position against the raiders.
I did take a lot of things into consideration. I just came up with an attack plan that took care of them all and didn't stick with the original task force that Nagumo was given. If you try to change Nagumo's mission from "hit em while they sleep and then get the h out of there". to "stick around and plaster anything that moves" WITHOUT greatly increasing the size of Nagumo's raiding force, then you are correct, you will have too many losses. But, if you increase the size of the raiding force to a force that can be prelude to an invasion then you can probably pull that off after making PH look like the moon.
Again, you airily dismiss the idea that you only have six and not ten carriers (maybe you get the equivelent of 7.5 carriers by stripping all of your other offensives of any air cover, but 7.5 is still 2.5 short of 10). Your "sticking around and plastering everybody" strategy has been tried by many, including me, and it does not work. Attrition wears down the KB's irreplacable aircrews quite quickly if you continue to throw them into the maelstrom. You convert yourself from a mobile to a fixed force by tying yourself to geographic positions which are harder for you to defend than they are for the US to attack. Sure, it is easy to talk about having "only" 24 or so key bases, but how do those 24 compare to your total of Betty squadrons (at least two of which are needed to defend against USN raids)? How many are available and built up right away? How many others are withing range of US LBA and so unlikely ever to be built up without needing constant shepherding by the 7.5 carriers you have?
No, what you have is one fistfull of misunderstanding and another of wishful thinking. it was fun examining this strategy, but I think it is pretty clear that it is based on the rosiest of assumptions and that it lacks some crucial details like: what forces, exactly, are siezing the HI, and what are they NOT doing because they are 4,000 miles out of position?
The US losing the HI outside of Oahu isn't as devasting to the US as failing to take the SRA until August is to the Japanese.