Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[paullus99]

He probably has no idea what he's truly up against - he saw a lot of strikes, from multiple directions - so he may assume he's facing everything you've got. Sending the rest of the KB (just the four he has at Singapore) at this point would be a huge mistake. He really needs to concentrate & regroup - obviously he has plenty of troops & should have at least a decent amount of LBA (if he's manage it properly).

Unfortunately, he's completely lost the initiative at this point. Maybe, just maybe, if he had sent the Blair invasion with his CVs, we'd be looking at an entirely different situation. Now he's lost the troops, the ships, and he's still got Sumatra (and Sabang) to deal with. If those carriers retreat, you may want to accelerate your offensive moves - keep him off-balance and responding to your moves, instead of instigating his own.

[Canoerebel]

Enemy Combat Ships: I don't think any IJN capital ships have gone under, yet. I think Ise will founder no matter what happens; Haruna is hurt bad and will be slowed considerably; Kako is hurt bad enough to be reduced to 20 knots or so; Kongo can probably make decent speed with but one torp hit. Steve will pull his ships back - my guess is that he'll send them towards Rangoon or possibly towards Victoria Point on a gambit described below.

Enemy Transports: I think the invasion will be cancelled with the surviving transports dispersed and the undamaged ones vectored towards Rangoon.

Japanese Strategy: The KB divisions (Akagi, Kaga, Hiryu and Soryu) are two hexes east of Singapore. Steve could send them on a very hazardous mission around Singers and through the narrows of the Straits of Malacca. I think, howeer, he'll instead send them northwest into the Gulf of Siam, hugging Malaya's east coast. At flank speed, the carriers could end up just east of Kota Bharu at nine hexes, or perhaps as far as just east of Singora at 12 hexes. That would put his carriers in position to provide LRCAP at Victoria Point. He could also strip his carriers of fighters and send them to VP. No doubt he'll put as many LBA units in that area as possible.

Allied Plan: The Allies will engage for another day and in doing so will be taking some chances. Formidable and Lexington (escorted by a funny little group of cruisers and one destroyer as the rest of the DDs were one day from finishing upgrades at Colombo when these CVs departed) will take station off the eastern tip of Andaman Island to interdict the route to Rangoon and to cover Port Blair just in case the IJ amphibious TF still has enough punch to try to land. The other four Allied carriers (three CV plus Hermes) will take station to the south of the western end of the Andamans to interdict IJ retirement lanes to Victoria Point or Georgetown/Singapore (I may tweak the path indicated on the map). One Allied combat TF will patrol a hex east of Port Blair to handle cripples and any invasion. The other combat TF will patrol further south.

Enemy Air and Possible Carrier Battle: No matter what happens, the KB shouldn't be able to ship-launch strike aircraft tomorrow. I don't think Victoria Point has torp-equipped HQ units. Nor does Rangoon. So the threat to Allied ships should be limited to bombers. Allied HQ thinks it unlikley that the KB will give chase by sprinting into the Straits of Malacca, but if so Allied carrier-sorties will be short after tomorrow's strikes, so the idea of seeking a carrier clash will have to factor that in. Saratoga will steam from Colombo tomorrow with the rest of the DDs.

[paullus99]

Seems like a good time to start building up Port Blair as a jumping off point for future operations - perhaps even reinforcing Sabang as well.

[Panther Bait]

It would be good to catch the KB in the Malacca Straits. Those water hexs must all be coastal hexes which still mean 50% CAP right?

Mike

[Canoerebel]

I'm leaning towards reinforcing Port Blair with a Brit brigade about three days out (originally, this unit was to stay at Colombo as part of the eventually Burma invasion force).  My thinking is that Port Blair is no longer a mere road block, but can be turned into a strong Allied fortress that just further complicates Japan's situation.
 
Sabang is interesting at the moment.  The invasion was the key that allowed the Allies to open the door to this engagement.  However, the Allied grip on Sabang is very weak - the port is close to enemy airfields and repeated massive strikes have wiped out supplies and closed the airfield (I transferred in a fighter squadron the day I took the base, but not even a single fighter got off the ground the next turn).  I don't think the Allies will hold Sabang long term.  I don't have the troops to reinforce it now, and don't think I want to commit what's coming (27th Div.) since Steve should be able to win the battle for air/sea control here.  I'm going to try to slip in some supply ships, possibly covered by carrier CAP (once this battle is over), but I'm also toying with evacuating the troops and leaving just a shell behind to deceive Steve.  When he comes, he'll bring alot.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Panther Bait
It would be good to catch the KB in the Malacca Straits. Those water hexs must all be coastal hexes which still mean 50% CAP right?
Mike

No, fleet carrier CAP is halved only in coastal hexes with bases. Coastal hexes without bases do not affect carrier ops. (You may be wondering if this is accurate, but it's been discussed at length many times previously, both here and in WitP, and believe me the rule is as stated here). So the KB can transit the straits without that particular problem, but it will still seem daunting to Steve due to proximity to Allied airfields (even small ones), the threat of subs in that restricted channel, and not knowing exactly how many Allied carriers might await at the other end of the straits.

[paullus99]

You've whittled away at his combat capabilites - particularly his naval forces, so that he'll be unable to concentrate on more than one area at a time. As soon as you have additional carrier elements available, you'll be able to go on the offensive along multiple threat axis, and he won't be able to adequately respond.

If I was him, I wouldn't risk any more of my combat assets without getting a firm handle on what I'm up against. He is squandering his forces & more importantly, time for goals that aren't putting him any closer to victory or even sustainable conquests.

[ny59giants]

If he has a Naval HQ close enough to be air transported into a base, he could get torpedoes that way. 

[crsutton]

I don't believe BBs can park in Rangoon. It is a river port.

This really showcases the "first" Rule of WITP. You don't engage in a major operation unless you are absolutely sure as to where the enemy carriers are located. This rule applies to either side. And, if you don't know where they are then any operation has to be covered by your own carriers. This is AE 101. It should be printed on the box right next to the system requirements.....[:-]

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I fear he'll continue to do what has been a losing strategy so far, and that is continue to mount operations piecemeal and get defeated in detail. He's trying to put out too many fires at once now and not dealing with any of them adequately. As long as he tries to put the fires out with the glass at hand, rather than wait to fill a bucket and douse each fire in turn, I think he'll be in a position to get clobbered more often than not. That's a credit to your strategy this game Canoerebel and your aggressiveness has really paid off in this particular matchup.

I simply don't understand why he thought he could send a heavily supported amphibious TF to Port Blair and not get away unscathed. Granted, he may not have thought your carriers were around, but just where did he think they might be? You've shown you are in the fight for Sumatra for the long haul so to think your best assets might be off protecting some guano infested island in the middle of the Pacific just baffles me.

If he has four carriers now at Singapore, why didn't he just wait and support his invasion of Port Blair. Now he's taken serious capital and transport ship damage and may lose a bunch yet while KB was only 3-4 days away. I still think he should have dealt with Sabang first, then Port Blair is isolated and he could take it once he'd re-established his LBA from Sumatra to reduce the risk of what just happened.

Personally, I'd commit KB at this stage. In hindsight, if your current movements stand then KB will only face Enterprise, Yorktown, Indomitable and Hermes before your other two carriers can respond if they head towards Rangoon. Not that he knows this of course, but I'd take those odds with my four carriers. I don't think he has time to regroup anymore, you'll just get that much stronger as he dithers once again. Without hindsight, I'd still commit them. He'll be cursing the fact he's split KB and now has a chance to engage your carriers, but at a disadvantage. Another reason I say go is this, in another game I sent 3 CV's up against 3 US CV's and 2 British CV's. I sank a US and British CV for no loss to my carriers. So Japanese carriers and their crews still carry a punch even if outnumbered, maybe lady luck would shine on him and give him a break.

Great job seizing your opportunity CR, but I don't know why he continues to make it so easy for you. As long as he continues to divided his forces as I mentioned above, he'll be defeated in detail every time. He needs to stop screwing around, mass his assets and methodically capture back what he needs to in order to move forward again. He's squandered his ability to attain multiple meaningful objectives simultaneously, so now I think he needs to mass and simply bull his way through. Every time he tries to get cute, he gets punished.

[John 3rd]

Wow...as a JFB I would be contemplating Seppuku...

[Q-Ball]

crsutton is right, and I think I said it a page ago, can't remember....but you have to always anticipate that Carriers might be there, unless you know for a fact they aren't.

This is also why revealing your own CV locations is also important, because if Dan didn't know where KB was, he wouldn't have attempted this. KB would have provided more cover sitting in Japan, ironically, than they do in Singapore. Just the IDEA of KB would force Dan to avoid abort, if he didn't know their location. Fleet in Being.

DAN: If, theoretically, KB was sitting in Osaka (and you didn't know that, which you probably wouldn't), would you have attempted this?

[paullus99]

I'm sure that he thought he could cut off the operations & supply lines to Sabang by taking Port Blair - also using it as a base to interdict supply lines to Palembang as well from India.

Of course, doing so with air cover (at all) was a huge mistake. Perhaps he thought your carriers were much further south & east - it would make sense if he thought he'd be able to slip his carriers into position to catch your own flat-tops as they raced in to support against the invasion.

Obviously, he wasn't planning on your carriers already being in position (think of it like Midway, but with the Japanese carriers trailing, not leading the surface elements and transports). And now he's paid for yet another mistake. He may try to force the issue & move his carriers into striking distance, but if he loses another or two carriers, regardless of the exchange rate, he's finished.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I'm sure that he thought he could cut off the operations & supply lines to Sabang by taking Port Blair - also using it as a base to interdict supply lines to Palembang as well from India.

The way to cut off Sabang was to invade Sabang. Port Blair was completely unneccessary at this time. Capturing Port Blair does not cut off the supply lines to Sabang considering the Allies can sail everything up the west coast of Sumatra. drop it off at any of the bases still held and march it to Sabang.

I agree with Q-Ball. If CR had thought enemy carriers were in play, or had no idea where they were, then he might not have acted as he did. However, he did know where they were and knew they could have no influence on the coming operation and struck. Perhaps Chez meant to do this the whole time, dangle a large surface force and have KB trail along to pounce on any Allied ships that reacted, if so he timed things badly and here we are.

It's unfair of me to criticize Chez when I'm not privy to what his thoughts were. I'm sure, as many of you have stated, he thought he could manage this operation and unfortunately if went badly for him once again. In my opinion, this was a huge gamble, for little to no gain, and the results so far speak for themselves. I'll leave it at that.

[Canoerebel]

In reply to Q-Ball's hypothetical, what if the Allies didn't know the whereabouts of the KB:
 
Since the Allies have patrol aircraft covering the Straits of Malacca, spotting the KB would have been very likely, so the absence of such reports would have been strong evidence none were involved.  So I probably would have pulled the trigger.
 
However, I would have been losing sleep over whether the invasion of Port Blair was an elaborate feint to draw off my capital ships at the same time another major IJ invasion covered by the KB was inbound to Java or Sumatra.
 
We're all scratching our heads here.   Honestly, this doesn't make sense.  Perhaps Steve really did have plans to move on India in a major way after the fall of Singapore; perhaps the loss of Sabang and Langsa to the Allies really messed that up.   So perhaps this was his Hail Mary pass to try to reestablish his position in the Bay of Bengal to get an India operation underway.
 
What now?  Does Steve put his head down and move on Java and/or Sumatra with everything he has?  Or does he keep engaging in ineffective (Pago Pago) or disastrous (Port Blair) amphibious operations?  At this point, my money is on the former.  He's going to concentrate all his air and sea power in the DEI for a massive move on Java and Sumatra.  I don't think anything else makes sense.  And if he sufferes additional bloody defeats, I'd guess that he's going to begin contemplating what every football team contemplates when the last depserate pass is swatted down at the goal line:  retiring to the locker room to take a shower and enjoy a refreshing beverage.
 
Usually I'd shy away from making strong statements, but I'm just being as candid as possible about my assessment of things.

[JohnDillworth]

In the tradition of Teddy Roosevelt, I will offer to negotiate an honorable peace. Well done.

I don't even know if this is still fun anymore. Any thought to offering an honorable reboot? You seem to be everywhere and your opponent seemed unprepared for your style of play. I suspect that you have provided an "adequate" learning experience and might be looking for an honorable peace.
my 2 cents

[Canoerebel]

Steve hasn't broached anything about surrendering yet and that should come from him whenever he's ready, which may not be anytime before 1944 or 1945.  If it comes from me it might well seem an insult.

There is still a chance that Japan could recover to some extent - at least to campaign hard for the DEI and then focus on setting up the long defensive war.  And that might still be in the realm of possibility, though I'm going to try my darndest to hold Sumatra. 

The game is still very fun and exciting for me - I've gone out a limb that's allowed me to experience 1943- and even 1944-type action very early.  The action is satisfying and the going out on a limb adds excitement and a dash of worry.

But I realize from a spectator point of view a match that seems to be going the ways of the Allies this early doesn't seem very compelling.

[bradfordkay]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I don't believe BBs can park in Rangoon. It is a river port.

This really showcases the "first" Rule of WITP. You don't engage in a major operation unless you are absolutely sure as to where the enemy carriers are located. This rule applies to either side. And, if you don't know where they are then any operation has to be covered by your own carriers. This is AE 101. It should be printed on the box right next to the system requirements.....[:-]

So, a player could prevent you from ever engaging in any major operation merely by parking his carriers in a rear-area base where they can't be spotted? According to your post above, you would have no idea as to where they are so you would not undertake any offensive operations?

Not wanting to be too argumentative... but the first part of your statement seems to be not so well thought out, IMO.

I am in general agreement with the second half of your above statement - with the exception being places where I can undertake offensive operations under the cover of LBA.

[SqzMyLemon]

I think you are right CR in that any thought of ending the current game has to come from Chez. I think there is a lot of game left and there is much to be gained from continuing on his end. I just think the entire situation makes the eventual end game just that much easier for you if he doesn't get Sumatra dealt with and his perimeter set up soon.

I think the majority of players that play Japan always see themselves imposing their will early in the game, enjoying the glory days and then hunkering down for the long tough grind of defending their Empire as tenaciously as they can despite the obvious outcome in most cases. It's tough when you never had a chance to have the glory days, and in this case it's going to be a real struggle from here on out, whatever Chez decides to do. If he doesn't meet with some success soon then I wouldn't be surprised if he throws in the towel to be able to start another game and be competitive from the get go.

I can totally relate to how he may be feeling at this point. If he's still enjoying the game he'll soldier on, if he's not I hope he's not to proud to concede and ask for a rematch. I think he'll give himself a chance to turn things around through the remainder of 42 first though.

[Nemo121]

A match going the Allies way this early doesn't seem very compelling to spectators?

Hmm, it might be an outlier but must it be true that only "average" games are found to be interesting? Personally I find it more interesting to see someone play a good game which might upset the apple cart a bit rather than just do the same old thing that 50 other AARs have already done.