Here come the Rebels! (Canoe v. Q-Ball)

[Cribtop]

IMHO you've got him. The high water mark is probably reached as I think your resistance is stronger than anticipated and he's shot his bolt. Do you think there is any chance he still has significant reserves in India? If not, I just don't see how he wins.

Be open to the possibility that he has seen through your NOPAC feint. Not saying he has, but if so he may drop the hammer on Suva within two weeks of opening his big move in India.

[Canoerebel]

9/28/42

The early phases of the Battle of Jalagon continue to favor the Allies.

Jalagon: All but three small IJA units have arrived at Jalagon, as did two British armored units. The Allies bombarded, which meant that both sides got to see what the other side has. Japan has the following divisions: 10th, Guards Tanks, Imperial Guards, 54th, 4th Guards, and 6th Guards. There is also 2/3rds of 2nd Tank Division, 7th Independent Tank Brigade, and two HQ units. No engineers are present. The Japanese have 3,200 AV. The Allies have 1700 AV (including 300 armored that just arrived in strategic mode). This is a wooded hex with four forts. It will be at least three days before 27th USA Division arrives. I don't detect any more IJA troops on the way, so the odds may not get any better for Brad. He probably needs to shock attack tomorrow. It might be a close thing, though the absence of engineers may cost him greatly. I feel fairly confident that the garrison will hold long enough for the American division to arrive and that should be enough to secure the base. In fact, unless Brad has reinforcements on the way, he may already be contemplating an exit strategy due to other developments in the area.

NE of Jalagon: Ground combat took place on the flank with the Allies really roughing up two IJA tank units:

Allied Deliberate attack
Attacking force 8298 troops, 126 guns, 219 vehicles, Assault Value = 502
Defending force 4347 troops, 85 guns, 346 vehicles, Assault Value = 221
Allied adjusted assault: 165
Japanese adjusted defense: 49

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: disruption(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
623 casualties reported
Squads: 21 destroyed, 14 disabled
Non Combat: 42 destroyed, 72 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 9 disabled
Guns lost 7 (5 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 189 (94 destroyed, 95 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
205 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
6th British Brigade
5th Marine Regiment
1st USMC Tank Battalion
8th Indian Brigade
1st USMC Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
1st Tank/B Division
1st Tank/C Division

Impact: This means both flanks of the Japanese stack at Jalagon are open. To the NE and E, this battle pretty much wiped out his flanking units. These Allied units plus a few others will advance toward the east, threatening the road by which half the Japanese army entered Jalagon. A Brit recce unit will threaten the other road. Unless Brad has reinforcements on the way, his flanks are vulnerable and he's going to be thinking retreat.

In the Air: Ahmadebad airfield just went to level nine. The Allies staged forward more than 100 bombers. Three squadrons of Blenheims and one of Banshees will concentrate on 1st IJA Division on the road south of Surat. The balance - B-25s and B-26s will join the B-17s and B-24s in hitting the Japanese stack at Jalagon. Wellingtons and B-26s from other bases will work on the retreating Japanaese armored units.

Accounting for IJA Divisions: In addition to the six IJA divisions at Jalagon, there is another north of Bombay, five at Bombay, and at least one in Burma. 4th Division, recently at Benares, is unaccounted for. There may be as many as three others. These may be serving garrison duty, may be flanking (though I have picket units out), or could even be part of an amphibious force if Brad intended to draw the Allies forward so that he could invade Surat or even Karachi (unlikely, but not impossible).

Summary: Brad can turn the tables at Jalagon if his army quickly and effectively shock attacks and takes the hex. If he fails to attack, or if his attack is unsuccessful, then the Allies seem to be in position to threaten the Japanese army with isolation. I'm also keeping my eye out for flanking maneuvers or the unlikley but possible invasion. (A Brit armored unit arrives at Karachi tomorrow, bringing that garrison up to 320 AV; an invasion there would trigger reinforcements of one additional division in the hex, so I think Karachi is fairly safe).

NoPac: I doubt Brad thinks the Allies will move in NoPac, but he won't be positive. So he has to allow for the possibility for about three more weeks.

CenPac: Quiet here. Brad is reconning Midway and Baker Island. Both are garrisoned and well-supplied, so there's nothing else I can do.

SoPac: More supplies have landed at Suva bringing the level to 32k. The Norfolk Island invasion TF will refuel at Hobart tonight. D-Day in less than a week.

[Canoerebel]

Map of the Battle of Jalagon, West India, as of September 28, 1942:

[witpqs]

Could those units have significant organic complements of combat engineers? Anyway, I think the air pounding to cause disruption is most crucial here.

[erstad]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Could those units have significant organic complements of combat engineers? Anyway, I think the air pounding to cause disruption is most crucial here.

Assuming the TOE is the same as Scen 1, japanese divisions have on the order of 3-4 dozen embedded combat engineers.

[Canoerebel]

So you're telling me that my hopes that Brad had come unprepared are dashed. Darn.

Brad has got to attack at Jalagon before 27th USA Division arrives in three or four days, and the Allies have to hold Jalagon until then. This could be the critical battle of the campaign and possibly of the entire war.

It's Gettysburg and my guys are Hancock's men in the copse of trees on Cemetery Ridge. Brad is General Pickett. (Odd that he, the Yankee, is the Reb, and I, the Reb, am the Yankee).

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

So you're telling me that my hopes that Brad had come unprepared are dashed. Darn.

Brad has got to attack at Jalagon before 27th USA Division arrives in three or four days, and the Allies have to hold Jalagon until then. This could be the critical battle of the campaign and possibly of the entire war.

It's Gettysburg and my guys are Hancock's men in the copse of trees on Cemetery Ridge. Brad is General Pickett. (Odd that he, the Yankee, is the Reb, and I, the Reb, am the Yankee).

I like your troop dispositions and movement around Jalagon, Billy Yank. You have him on the horns of a real tactical dilemma.

[JohnDillworth]

So you're telling me that my hopes that Brad had come unprepared are dashed. Darn.

Brad has got to attack at Jalagon before 27th USA Division arrives in three or four days, and the Allies have to hold Jalagon until then. This could be the critical battle of the campaign and possibly of the entire war.

It's Gettysburg and my guys are Hancock's men in the copse of trees on Cemetery Ridge. Brad is General Pickett. (Odd that he, the Yankee, is the Reb, and I, the Reb, am the Yankee).

Probably going to have to hold for a few days. You only have a couple of things you can do at this point (most of these things were not available at Gettysburg);
1.) Pour on the air strikes. It's going to be close so you can't afford to skimp here.
2.) Check your leaders on the front. Only the best and brightest here
3.) Show some threats to distract ( I think you are doing this)
4.) Distract and deceive. Too late for a fake amphibious invasion, but you might want to fire off those paratroops somewhere threatening, or seeming so

Hopefully the 27th will be enough once they arrive.

[Canoerebel]

Brad was out of town yesterday, so no turn in the box until late tonight.

About two months ago, Brad's rate of play slowed dramatically.  At first I wondered if he might be playing some mind games - trying to throw me off my rhythm or trying to make me think there was nothing "exciting" going on at his end of the game. (If that's paranoid thinking, I'm guilty.)

Then Brad said that real life business matters were responsible (most of our turns have been done during regular business hours due to my situation).  But the fact that Brad isn't updating his AAR any longer is out of character.  He does have time at night to do stuff, he says, but he's not posting.

That leads me to wonder whether he's lost interest in our game.  I don't see how, considering he's had the Allies on the edge of disaster for months now, but no other explanation seems to fit.

[witpqs]

Well, purely just a stab at it - maybe after the period where work has had him buggered plus the titanic struggle to conquer the world, he's just tuckered out and needs a temporary slowdown?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Brad was out of town yesterday, so no turn in the box until late tonight.

About two months ago, Brad's rate of play slowed dramatically.  At first I wondered if he might be playing some mind games - trying to throw me off my rhythm or trying to make me think there was nothing "exciting" going on at his end of the game. (If that's paranoid thinking, I'm guilty.)

Then Brad said that real life business matters were responsible (most of our turns have been done during regular business hours due to my situation).  But the fact that Brad isn't updating his AAR any longer is out of character.  He does have time at night to do stuff, he says, but he's not posting.

That leads me to wonder whether he's lost interest in our game.  I don't see how, considering he's had the Allies on the edge of disaster for months now, but no other explanation seems to fit.

Q-ball was such a regular presence on this forum, that I can't believe he's just dropped you or lost interest in your game. That would be so very unlike him and totally out of character. I haven't seen him posting much at all here or elsewhere within Matrix. I'll put your presumptive paranoia at the bottom of my differential diagnoses list, CR.

In the meantime, I would take him at his word. He's earned that benefit of the doubt. Hopefully things will pick up for the two of you soon.

You know, CR, you COULD pick up another PBEM to tide you over...

Also, remember that it's not paranoia if the bastards really ARE out to get 'ya.

[Nemo121]

Well, with real life sometimes in my game vs PH or 1EyedJacks we swap 3 turns a day and sometimes 1 turn every 5 days. Such is life.

Also, don't forget that his morale has probably taken a beating recently. I believe he has finally realised his strategic errors ( which I won't go into here ) but he's done so too late to correct them in order to gain his original strategic objective. It is natural that that will result in some slower play while he rebuilds enthusiasm. Of course, he should have taken steps to prevent morale impacting his play but when you read his previous posting history ( not including this current AAR ) it is clear that he doesn't do so ( that isn't a slam, most people don't ).

So, I'd give him some time. If you really think his morale is flagging etc perhaps offer him the opportunity to concede the game at this point and allow someone else to step in. There's no shame in a conceded game or a game ending early - unless you've both agreed at the start of the game that this goes to 31st December 45/46. Even then though if it isn't fun for him anymore then he should step aside or concede.

Ps. To be clear... I haven't read his AAR for quite a long time once I became certain that he wasn't listening to people who could see his strategic demise approaching. Once the writing's on the wall and the player chooses not to read it I tend not to follow the AAR anymore as watching the slaughter of someone who refuses to see reality isn't interesting to me. So, none of the above is based on anything he's said or done in recent weeks. From my dipping into your AAR it is clear, however, that he has stalled and is belatedly realising his errors in deployment, phasing and weighting.

[Canoerebel]

I'm not going to say anything to Brad yet.  As Chickenboy points out, he has a long and stellar records in the forums.  And, as Nemo points out, it might well be real life work matters.  If it continues after the first of the year, or if Brad brings it up in the meantime, I'll consider approaching him them.

For now, though, the game is excruciatingly tense, and it is hard to be patient as I wait to see how things will turn out from an auto-victory standpoint.

Thanks for the comments, gents.

[Mike Solli]

Hang in there CR.  Real life does rear it's ugly head for all of us on occasion.  There was a period of a couple of months where I didn't log on, due to life (mine and my opponents).  People thought my AAR was dead.  I got through that period and we picked the game back up.  Q-Ball will get through this. 

[Canoerebel]

9/29/42

A momentous day with significant developments that require important decisions that will resonate around the globe.

Jalagon:  Brad's army at Jalagon didn't attack.  In fact, nearly 25% of his units departed the hex, either the beginning of a general retreat or part of a plan to fight for control of the flanking hexes.  Either strategy is bad, at this point, but the latter is a particularly poor option.  Time is against Brad.  His only chance to retain the initiative or at least preserve the status quo is to attack and take Jalagon before Allied reinforcements arrive.  Niether side attacked, Allied air strikes were not particularly impressive, and Japan's besieging army dropped from 95k to about 75k as several units seem to have pulled out to the east and to the south.

What is Japan Doing:  While Brad might have ordered a general retreat, which would be his second best option at this point, I think he might be leaving a holding force at Jalagon while he prepares to fight for control of the flanking hexes.  The fact that he just sent one of his five Bombay divisions north on the road to Jalagon makes this seem likely.  But this is a losing strategy.  The Allies have alot more reinforcements on the way.  In addition to British infantry and armor and Indian infantry arriving in numbers at Indore, a flood of reinforcements just reached Karachi - an armored brigade is coming ashore, and reinforcements in the form of an Indian division and two Chindit brigades just came in at Karachi.  This gives the Allies 700 additional AV to work with.

What will happen at Jalagon:  If Brad stays and fights on the flanks, his army will eventually get beaten.  If he has ordered a general retreat, the Allies will be right on his heals and things may turn into a disorganzed route.

What the Allies will do:  The two Chindit brigades will move to forward bases, giving the Allies three paratroop units near the front.  27th USA Division will likely continue to Jalagon to make sure it is secure.  Additional units arriving will move toward the flanking hexes.  LBA will try to pound the enemy.  If the enemy appears to be cracking or in general retreat, I may drop the paratroops on rear bases/dot hexes to theaten the enemy's line of retreat.

What the Allies need to evaluate:  The Allies could use the new reinforcements to create an amphibious army that could land, under cover of carriers, at Mangalore.  The Allies still control this base south of Goa, so the landing would be friendly (IE, no disruption or losses).  Landing here in strength would seriously threaten two of Japan's best routes of retreat from the Bombay/Jalagon areas, posing a serious threat to the long-term survival of the Japanese army.  This sounds "great" at first blush, but has important downsides:  (1) At perhaps 1,000 AV, the Allies force could itself be surrounded and destroyed; (2) Japan has several big airfields in the area, including Cuttack at level seven; with the porous CAP and anemic flak that exists in AE, the Allies carriers would be at risk; and (3) revealing the location of my carriers gives Brad freedom to roam in the Pacific, and that's a bad thing at this point.  For those reasons I am leaning against this operation.

Allied carriers:  The conditions that led me to keep my carriers available for possible action in the Arabian Sea have changed.  The Allies will be fine in India without them.  Should I elect against the Mangalore operation, then my carriers are no longer needed in this theater.  SigInt just reported IJA 24th Division prepping for Midway, which I think is an important strategic target for Japan.  There are also the looming threats against Fiji and possibly Baker or New Zealand.  Therefore, I am strongly considering moving my carriers from Capetown to Balboa to be ready for action in the Pacific.

The Pacific:  Multiple IJN subs are working around Suva (one sank a supply xAK) and at Baker Island.  A sub south of New Zealand's southern tip got an eyeful of a major USN combat TF including CAs Pensacola and Portland.  (I wonder what Brad thinks of that.)  Another sub is near Adak.  Brad has also been reconning Midway, apparently by Emily (is Midway close enough to Wake to permit such?).  I think things are going to get hot in the Pacific in about two or three weeks.

SoPac:  The Norfolk Island invasion force leaves Hobart tonight.

Brad:  The slow-down in turns doesn't bother me nearly as much as Brad's lack of interest in his AAR.  As I checked his posting history this a.m., I found that he has posted several times in the new WitE forum.  That's a bad sign.  Back in my UV days, I was involved in a tight game.  Suddenly, my opponent seemed to lose interest.  Then he showed up in the then-new WitP forums, where he became immeresed in that game.  He half-heartedly tried to continue our UV game, but eventually gave it up.  That's what I'm afraid is happening here.  I want to give it somore more time to see if things work out, so I won't say anything unless the trend continued into January or unless Brad brings it up.

[JohnDillworth]

2 other possibilities here:
He saw significant American investment and all his math went out the window.
or......
General Hamlet is commanding his army.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

9/29/42

A momentous day with significant developments that require important decisions that will resonate around the globe.

Jalagon:  Brad's army at Jalagon didn't attack.  In fact, nearly 25% of his units departed the hex, either the beginning of a general retreat or part of a plan to fight for control of the flanking hexes.  Either strategy is bad, at this point, but the latter is a particularly poor option.  Time is against Brad.  His only chance to retain the initiative or at least preserve the status quo is to attack and take Jalagon before Allied reinforcements arrive.  Niether side attacked, Allied air strikes were not particularly impressive, and Japan's besieging army dropped from 95k to about 75k as several units seem to have pulled out to the east and to the south.

What is Japan Doing:  While Brad might have ordered a general retreat, which would be his second best option at this point, I think he might be leaving a holding force at Jalagon while he prepares to fight for control of the flanking hexes.  The fact that he just sent one of his five Bombay divisions north on the road to Jalagon makes this seem likely.  But this is a losing strategy.  The Allies have alot more reinforcements on the way.  In addition to British infantry and armor and Indian infantry arriving in numbers at Indore, a flood of reinforcements just reached Karachi - an armored brigade is coming ashore, and reinforcements in the form of an Indian division and two Chindit brigades just came in at Karachi.  This gives the Allies 700 additional AV to work with.

What will happen at Jalagon:  If Brad stays and fights on the flanks, his army will eventually get beaten.  If he has ordered a general retreat, the Allies will be right on his heals and things may turn into a disorganzed route.

What the Allies will do:  The two Chindit brigades will move to forward bases, giving the Allies three paratroop units near the front.  27th USA Division will likely continue to Jalagon to make sure it is secure.  Additional units arriving will move toward the flanking hexes.  LBA will try to pound the enemy.  If the enemy appears to be cracking or in general retreat, I may drop the paratroops on rear bases/dot hexes to theaten the enemy's line of retreat.

What the Allies need to evaluate:  The Allies could use the new reinforcements to create an amphibious army that could land, under cover of carriers, at Mangalore.  The Allies still control this base south of Goa, so the landing would be friendly (IE, no disruption or losses).  Landing here in strength would seriously threaten two of Japan's best routes of retreat from the Bombay/Jalagon areas, posing a serious threat to the long-term survival of the Japanese army.  This sounds "great" at first blush, but has important downsides:  (1) At perhaps 1,000 AV, the Allies force could itself be surrounded and destroyed; (2) Japan has several big airfields in the area, including Cuttack at level seven; with the porous CAP and anemic flak that exists in AE, the Allies carriers would be at risk; and (3) revealing the location of my carriers gives Brad freedom to roam in the Pacific, and that's a bad thing at this point.  For those reasons I am leaning against this operation.

Allied carriers:  The conditions that led me to keep my carriers available for possible action in the Arabian Sea have changed.  The Allies will be fine in India without them.  Should I elect against the Mangalore operation, then my carriers are no longer needed in this theater.  SigInt just reported IJA 24th Division prepping for Midway, which I think is an important strategic target for Japan.  There are also the looming threats against Fiji and possibly Baker or New Zealand.  Therefore, I am strongly considering moving my carriers from Capetown to Balboa to be ready for action in the Pacific.

The Pacific:  Multiple IJN subs are working around Suva (one sank a supply xAK) and at Baker Island.  A sub south of New Zealand's southern tip got an eyeful of a major USN combat TF including CAs Pensacola and Portland.  (I wonder what Brad thinks of that.)  Another sub is near Adak.  Brad has also been reconning Midway, apparently by Emily (is Midway close enough to Wake to permit such?).  I think things are going to get hot in the Pacific in about two or three weeks.

SoPac:  The Norfolk Island invasion force leaves Hobart tonight.

Brad:  The slow-down in turns doesn't bother me nearly as much as Brad's lack of interest in his AAR.  As I checked his posting history this a.m., I found that he has posted several times in the new WitE forum.  That's a bad sign.  Back in my UV days, I was involved in a tight game.  Suddenly, my opponent seemed to lose interest.  Then he showed up in the then-new WitP forums, where he became immeresed in that game.  He half-heartedly tried to continue our UV game, but eventually gave it up.  That's what I'm afraid is happening here.  I want to give it somore more time to see if things work out, so I won't say anything unless the trend continued into January or unless Brad brings it up.

If you are convinced that Brad is ordering a general withdraw from the Indian subcontinent East *and* you're going to be moving your carriers to the Pacific anyways, would this be the right time for you to consider your Sumatra option? I would think that you would want to swing around as wide as possible in order to snare as many Jap divisions in India as you could.

Nothing wrong with frontal assault attrition from the Allies perspective, but you may have an opportunity for maneuver warfare here to supplement the Indian attrition.

Just a thought...

[Canoerebel]

Uh oh, John, you're dealing with a man who sometimes has trouble thinking abstractly.  You'll have to explain your Hamlet reference.

I can only hope that the appearance of the Americans caused consternation in the enemy camp.  A failure to achieve an element of surprise would be a dsiappointment.  (By the way, I don't think he's caught sight of 27th Division yet).

P.S. Just a turn or two before you posted your previous entry, I had gone through my units at Jalagon and replaced substandard officers. 

A couple of other extraneous details I've been meaning to post:

1.  You guys may remember the Allies withdrew cadres of a UK division from Ceylon back in March.  That division is now up to about 110 AV.  One of the brigades is at Bombay, the other two at Ahmadebad.

2.  20th Indian Division, which was nearly annihilated in southern India, and of which a fragment was extracted by air in a nearly miraculous operation about a month ago, is now at Surat and has recouped to about 25 AV.  Sometime in 1943 this unit will be a force to be reckoned with.

[Canoerebel]

Chickenboy, the thought of trapping and destroying the Japanese army in India is enticing.  Such an operation would take the commitment of every Allied resource available, including carriers, and would still be very difficult to achieve.

I'm leaning against anything of that nature because it would essentially eliminate the option of moving on Sumatra since my carriers and shipping would be heavily involved in the Bay of Bengal for many months to come and would likely draw Japan's full attention to the region.  The move would also open up the Pacific to Japanese moves, which would be a real problem for me going forward.

Alternatively, I don't think I can proceed with the Sumatra campaign yet.  I don't have enough troops available - I don't think 4+ divisions is sufficient - I think I need at least 8.  Plus, at this early date I do not think Allied carriers would be able to keep the supply lines open to Sumatra.  I think the odds are high that the KB would win any major carrier clash.

For those reasons, I think the Allies are best served by (1) waging a frontal assault in India (with the addition of para-assaults); (2) keeping the carriers hidden for now; and (3) invading Sumatra in the spring of '43, timed to coincide with what will appear to be a massive Allied invasion of the Kuriles (to draw Brad's carriers north).

[Capt. Harlock]

Allied carriers: The conditions that led me to keep my carriers available for possible action in the Arabian Sea have changed. The Allies will be fine in India without them. Should I elect against the Mangalore operation, then my carriers are no longer needed in this theater. SigInt just reported IJA 24th Division prepping for Midway, which I think is an important strategic target for Japan. There are also the looming threats against Fiji and possibly Baker or New Zealand. Therefore, I am strongly considering moving my carriers from Capetown to Balboa to be ready for action in the Pacific.

Assuming that you have: 1)Upgraded all TBD Devastators to TBF Avengers, and 2)Incorporated two or more Atlanta class CLAA's into your escorts, I add my vote to this idea. I don't advise a make-or-break battle against the entire KB, since that would give the IJN a chance for auto-victory. But a battle against a lesser number of Japanese CV's might produce valuable results. (And be highly entertaining to we readers.)