MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Damaged ships come back faster, if you are willing to spend the BP on them. That was the deciding factor when it came to choosing the order to apply the Damage Risks to the German Navy. However, after the first roll, I started wondering if I was doing the right thing or not. After the second roll, I was sure that I'd chosen unwisely (those rolls were in favor of Germany, but way too close to being very bad for my tastes).

In the final tally, 4 of the 5 German ships ended up Damaged, and the 5th got Aborted. With the odds against them, there's no reason for the Germans to stick around.
The CW, on the other hand, lost the CL Dauntless (but that's what Light Cruisers are there for, right?) and couldn't maintain complete luck, seeing the BB Nelson suffer some damage (but that's what the Americans are there for, right?)

It is as close to a resounding victory as the CW has acheived all game.

[Red Prince]

With 2 units now in Suez to occupy the Italians, and the French Syrian TERR causing some minor trouble in Transjordan, I took the opportunity to find some good defensive ground for HQ-A Wavell. It is a tactical retreat . . . he would never abandon his post! From this vantage point, high in the coastal desert mountains, he can watch the progress of the Italians near Suez, feel safe with his doubled defense factors (for now), and prepare to evacuate if N/D '40 sees Suez in enemy hands.

[Red Prince]

The Soviets rebased the last of their FTR force to "safe" locations behind the future front lines to end the impulse. This image uses the "low resolution" option. It gives you a better view of the units and is particularly useful for Zoom Levels 1-4 (this image uses Zoom 4). Now that the Communist Chinese are out of it, all future land moves before Barbarossa can be put toward building a defense that might actually hold the German forces at bay . . . for a while, anyway.

[Red Prince]

If you take a look at post #1062 above, you'll see that Italy has a bit of a decision to make. There are 8 factors in Suez, and these can be doubled with Shore Bombardment. Italy can put together a 2:1 attack against that, and has a 30% chance of HQ Support bumping the odds up a bit. With HQ-A Graziani involved, this can be made a Blitz attack (Suez isn't a city), and that gives 40%-50% odds of taking Suez. It would be higher, but the Combat Friction rule is in play, and they'll need those German Ground Support factors. This can be offset if I try a Ground Strike on the last unit, but the odds of success are low.

What to do, what to do. If I don't take Suez now, the CW might be encouraged to reinforce Wavell. If I do, he'll probably flee. I don't expect the odds to get much better -- this is Axis impulse #9, and the Allied impulse #11 will have a 50% chance of ending the turn. If that happens the disorganized unit in Suez gets re-organized. But even if I do take Suez now, both HQs are likely to be disorganized (80%-90% chance) and that is a full Oil Point used up to reorganize them. Italy is a little short on Oil right now . . .

Well, you know me. I like to take risks. At worst, I might lose a unit and fail to take Suez. So, the Cairo MIL can be destroyed and rebuilt. (Actually, at worst 2 units could die, but I'm hoping not to get another '1' roll, and even if that happens, it only removes 3 attack factors . . . and I can get 2 of those back at the start of next turn.

Looks like Italy is going to move up for the attack . . . beware, Suez, we're coming for you!
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I tried the Ground Strike, but rolled too high.

[Red Prince]

The risk might yet pay off, with Balbo successfully providing HQ Support to the attack on Suez. The other attack this impulse is just "mop-up" detail near Sian:



And the results:

Attack on China [74, 136]: Assault, Roll = Automatic
Attack on Suez: Blitz, Roll = 5+1 = 6 = -/R (attackers disorganized, defenders Retreat to the East) USE-2 (+1 chit, 226 [2]) Ja

I actually forgot that Italy would get a +1 to the die roll for an attacking HQ-A unit. Techinically, it is a +0.5 (as you can see) that gets rounded up. So, the odds were better than I thought they were. However, in my zeal to win Suez for the Italians, I missed something . . . I forgot the INF Division does not produce a ZOC, so 2 units that I thought would die are alive and well -- on the other side of the canal, and still able to trace supply for reorganization purposes. Can you see Wavell laughing up there in the desert mountains?

[Red Prince]

Now, though, I can finally reorganize those 4 units in and near Sian that I wanted to get done last impulse. With my luck (Japan's actually, where reorganization is concerned), the Allies will end the turn after their next impulse and this will be 2 turns in a row of wasted reorganization.

[Red Prince]

So, we move on to impulse #11, and something tells me it's going to be a short winter:

[Red Prince]

And finally, finally, finally . . . the North Atlantic fleet comes out victorious, and the Commonwealth is rid of a pesky German CA. It was a semi-failed mission. The enemy cruiser should have been obliterated, but the rolls only resulted in a damaged ship. Doesn't matter. It won't be bothering the RN for a while, and combined with the earlier victory in the North Sea, most of the German fleet is sitting in the Repair Pool. How much do you think the Germans are actually going to spend on repairing those ships?

[Red Prince]

The turn didn't end, and so Axis impulse #13 began in the miserable weather. Italy made a feeble attempt to finish off the last CW ship in the W. Med, but failed to find it, and even in this Stormy Weather (no singing, please [;)] ) I managed to put together an attack that ought to eliminate Mao for good. The reason this is important has less to do with Mao and more to do with Partisans. You see, even Isolated and disorganized, he's got a ZOC that prevents some of the Japanese units from acting as Garrisons in China. This attack has a 70% chance of solving that problem, and a 90% chance of getting rid of Mao and his buddies:



And the results:

Attack on China [75, 136]: Assault, Roll = 9+2 = 11 = */2S

Ever hear of overkill? Anyway, the tactic worked. Aware that I couldn't mount an attack on Kunming this turn, I moved 3 of the 4 units there out of enemy ZOC. That brought the chance of a Partisan appearing down to 18% which is pretty good. Now, though, with Mao and his ZOC gone, there is only a 3% chance of a Chinese Partisan showing up.

[Red Prince]

With a 70% chance to end the turn, the Allies really wanted it to happen. They needed the first impulse this turn, but also wanted to preserve the initiative. Lucky for them, the die roll was a '6' and the S/O '40 turn is at an end, each side getting 4 impulses to try to screw with the other.

Here's the weather report for Turn #7:

[Red Prince]

For all that happened this turn, very few units were actually destroyed in S/O '40 (Turn #7):

[Red Prince]

The USA got a wonderful draw for its Entry chit, a '3' in the Ja Entry Pool. I'd love to take the Option to Repair Western Allies Ships, but I don't want to move a chit, being so close to the numbers I'll need to Pass War Appropriations.

With only Kunming remaining for the Chinese, and probably a short winter on the way (+2 to the next weather roll), I'm starting to wonder if China should consider a Surrender after all. A Chinese surrender gets a chit for the USA (at least?) and forces Japan to attempt to build up to its next attacks during the short winter months. Also, if Japan decides to DOW the USSR quickly, that gives the Soviets free reign to set up its defenses as it pleases, has a 70% chance of adding yet another chit (thus bringing the USA that much closer to war), and forces at least some of the Japanese troops and an HQ to move off to Siberia.

Without a Chinese surrender, the USA gains nothing, the Soviets remain limited in their Actions, and Japan is free to move into position for its next phase of the war. In this case, of course, it still needs to keep some units around the Sian area to keep that MTN unit under control, and it will probably also want to try to finish off Kunming in order to open up a land route to Southeast Asia.
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Edit: I suppose I could also take a chance at Re-opening the Burma Road (10%) but it seems pointless, and if I do need tension later, I can always use this by boosting the value up.
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Anyway, here are the US Entry Options available (I'm going to pick Chinese Build Aircraft, just because I can):

[Red Prince]

I forgot to add the Entry Pools to the previous image:
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Edit: I'm taking a break that may or may not last until tomorrow, so any thoughts are likely to be considered when I complete the End of Turn sequence.

[Orm]

I would not surrender China at this point. But I suppose you already know how I feel about this. [:)]

Lots of fun stuff happened this turn as well. Keep up the good work.[:)]

[Centuur]

I wouldn't surrender China in this turn or the next, since chit value in 1940 is low. Apart from this: Kunming is a defense of India at this moment and it's in the mountains. So no surrender. Also: are there still any Nationalist/Communist cities in China? That might give the Japanese problems, since reinforcements can go there. Ankang comes in mind (nice, a city in the mountains. Double defense...). The Japanese cannot move units out of China, before it is conquered or before they have taken all cities still under Chinese control, if they don't want to conquer China.
To bad you didn't reopen the Burma Road for a resource to be send to China. It would have been nice to put a cheap Chinese unit on the spiral, just to keep the Japanese a little nervous. Where is that unit going to appear (especially if it is a Communist...).

By the way: did Wavell move further south in Egypt in the last Allied impulse (if there was a combined or land impuse)? Did the Syrians capture Amman in that impulse? Are the Germans chasing the French CAV in Morocco (and with what)? I'm just curious, you know.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

I would not surrender China at this point. But I suppose you already know how I feel about this. [:)]

Lots of fun stuff happened this turn as well. Keep up the good work.[:)]

Yeah, I'm thinking J/F if at all. Better chit values at that point. It's a balance, though, between 2 winter turns of hindering Japanese movement vs. or trying for the better chits . . .

Japan need only take one more city in order to get the full resource potential out of China, and may not think it's worth it. We'll see what the weather looks like come November, I guess.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

I wouldn't surrender China in this turn or the next, since chit value in 1940 is low. Apart from this: Kunming is a defense of India at this moment and it's in the mountains. So no surrender. Also: are there still any Nationalist/Communist cities in China? That might give the Japanese problems, since reinforcements can go there. Ankang comes in mind (nice, a city in the mountains. Double defense...). The Japanese cannot move units out of China, before it is conquered or before they have taken all cities still under Chinese control, if they don't want to conquer China.
To bad you didn't reopen the Burma Road for a resource to be send to China. It would have been nice to put a cheap Chinese unit on the spiral, just to keep the Japanese a little nervous. Where is that unit going to appear (especially if it is a Communist...).

By the way: did Wavell move further south in Egypt in the last Allied impulse (if there was a combined or land impuse)? Did the Syrians capture Amman in that impulse? Are the Germans chasing the French CAV in Morocco (and with what)? I'm just curious, you know.

To try to answer the questions, I still can Re-Open the Burma Road if I want to (saved it before closing the form). Thing is, the Japanese can close it physically in a mere impulse or two.

Yes, Wavell is working his way south.

They Syrian TERR took Amman and moved beyond, to prevent Italy from activating Iraq. Since it went beyond, the Italian INF retook it (which it could easily have done anyway, with the TERR isolated and disorganized.

The Germans sent an ARM Division down the coast, chasing the French CAV away. The Italians now have a NAV in Cape St. Vincent, so an HQ wasn't necessary. I'll post images of all of this onece I've done my usual reports. At the moment HQ-A Guderian is halfway across Algeria, with 3 MECH/ARM Corps and another division. I've sort of counted it out, and it should take about 4-5 more impulses to get this group over to Egypt/Palestine.
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Edit: Actually, I'm going to change my standard . . . I usually post images after reinforcements arrive, but I'll go through the areas of note and post a few now instead.

[Red Prince]

Here's what is going on in Morocco:

[Red Prince]

And the crossing of Algeria:

[Red Prince]

The big "oops" at the Suez Canal (not to be mistaken with the shootout at the O.K. Corral):