MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

I'll save you the trouble of adding all of those numbers up:

The Germans have 309 attack factors dedicated to the Barbarossa campaign, with more available in other lands if they are required.
The Soviets have 170 defense factors on the map and nothing else to draw from after the 72 factors of Reserves enter the game. That's 242 total factors.

The following images show (from top to bottom) the current units each Major Power has on the Production Spiral, the current German Force Pool (land units only), and the current Soviet Force Pool (land units only). In addition to these units, the Soviets have 14 MIL added to the Froce Pool when they come to War, totalling 49 factors.

[composer99]

Japan will feel fat & happy with 4 resources & a victory city to lap up. They should send an HQ and a small token force just in case the USSR puts down more units than just the Vladivostok MIL.

[composer99]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Since it's quick and easy this turn, here's the chit summary for N/D '40 (Turn #8):

Impulse: 7
Italy aligns Iraq; USE-1 (+1 chit, 91 [1])

End of Turn:
USA drew 1 marker to the Ja Entry Pool (51 [1])
USA chooses no Entry Options

Ge/It Entry: 33
Ge/It Tension: 22
Chance of DOW: 0%
Japan Entry: 30
Japan Tension: 21
Chance of DOW: 0%

Allies Support Mozambique; USE-10 (no chit)
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Edit: Added the USE for supporting Mozambique.

IMO if the US ends up short the values to pass War Appropriations at the end of Jan/Feb 1941 they should pass the oil embargo and reduce the tension probability.

Unless the Japanese have built a SYNTH they are out of oil except for whatever they have saved. What's the news on Japanese SYNTH and saved oil, Red Prince?

[Red Prince]

And, last but not least, when thinking about an attack or defense, you have to take air power into account. Some of the German FTR units will be needed to defend the vulnerable parts of the empire, but this is what the two opposing air forces look like. Also included is a composite image of the two Force Pools available to each of the Major Powers.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Japan will feel fat & happy with 4 resources & a victory city to lap up. They should send an HQ and a small token force just in case the USSR puts down more units than just the Vladivostok MIL.

The bad weather so far this winter has made this difficult, but it is going to happen. HQ-I Terauchi is the one I'll send to Vladivostock, I think, while Yamamoto heads south to deal with invasions and/or help with Kunming.

ORIGINAL: composer99

IMO if the US ends up short the values to pass War Appropriations at the end of Jan/Feb 1941 they should pass the oil embargo and reduce the tension probability.

Unless the Japanese have built a SYNTH they are out of oil except for whatever they have saved. What's the news on Japanese SYNTH and saved oil, Red Prince?

You might have noticed that Japan only had 15 BP to spend this past turn. That's because I re-directed the Oil from the USA from factories and saved it instead. Japan has 5 saved Oil (3 in Japan and 2 in Canton) and expects to save 2-3 more this turn.

The Japanese (and Italian) SynthOil plants are coming online at the start of M/J '41. Each has a 2nd plant that could be built, but there are other priorities at the moment.

[composer99]

5 saved oil and no SYNTH 'till May/June? Hmm...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

5 saved oil and no SYNTH 'till May/June? Hmm...

Sounds rotten doesn't it? But there are few Oil dependent units on the map besides the fleet, and it isn't really needed until the "big game" begins. At least that's what I'm telling myself . . .

[composer99]

Let's put it this way: I'd strongly consider getting that second SYNTH going as the Japanese, especially with the oil embargo looming. Given its expense relative to Japan's overall production and to reduce the gearing limit hit, it's probably best to set aside a few bp per turn (say, 3 this turn, 3 the next, and then build it in May/June).

[Red Prince]

I decided to kill two birds with one stone. Well, maybe it's only one bird, but it'll do.

The CW was lucky enough to have the Axis roll too high in the Bay of Biscay (barely), but did manage to roll itself into battle. Selecting only the 3 Box meant it would be a battle between the CW cruiser fleet and the Italian submarines. This was a bonus, because any Italian SUBs they could get rid of would mean fewer opportunities for the Italians to activate the sea area in order to let the Germans do the hard work.

Well, each side damaged an enemy unit and aborted another. No big deal, really.

Now, Germany was eager to continue the fight, but I'm going to take a slight risk as the Commonwealth and bet on a 4 impulse turn, even though there will be a 30% chance of it ending after the 3rd impulse. What this means is that instead of risking those convoys on a lucky Axis roll, I'm going to abort 8 of them to Liverpool, 3 to Halifax, and the last 4 to Martinique. At the end of the 1st Allied impulse, I can reorganize all but 1 of these CP, and I have a spare in Halifax to take its place. This means "using up" 3 TRS, but the ones I'll be using almost all need to relocate within range of the UK anyway (1 from Mozambique, 1 from Nigeria, and 1 from Halifax). Unless I fail to get a 2nd Allied impulse this turn, I can completely restore the convoy pipeline, running it through Faeroes Gap instead of the Bay of Biscay.

The risk, of course, is that the turn will end after just 3 total impulses, and the CW will get practically no production this turn.

An added bonus is the fact that all those other SUBs will have nothing to do for the rest of the turn. Of course, starting next turn, Faeroes Gap, the North Atlantic, and Cape Verde Basin will all be in peril, but until the USA enters the war, I just don't have the convoys to re-route farthur North or through the Brazilian Coast. I'll just have to set up solid defenses in those 3 sea ares.

[paulderynck]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Incidentally, would it not have been better to pick a CW major power home country not at risk of enemy action to be Portugal's new home country (e.g. UK or Canada)?

It doesn't matter. If Mozambique is conquered, then either Protugal is still incompletely conquered beause they have other minors left (and picks one of them as a new, new home country) - or Portugal is completely conquered because it has no other aligned countries.

This is an oft-misunderstood intricacy of RAW. Even if Queen Wilhelmina is living in Ottawa, Netherlands is still completely conquered if their last aligned country is conquered. Also if their first choice home country (FREX NEI) is conquered, it is not a Reconquest situation, they simply pull up stakes and move the home country to Dutch Guyana.

[Orm]

Please, no USSR HQ to Siberia. Siberia can be defended by a couple of infantry stacked in hero cities.

USSR can later on send a HQ to Siberia when they feel like counterattacking.

Edit: USSR might have had no intention of sending a HQ to Siberia but since I was suprised to see Zhukov close to Persia I felt a need to say this.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

ORIGINAL: composer99

Incidentally, would it not have been better to pick a CW major power home country not at risk of enemy action to be Portugal's new home country (e.g. UK or Canada)?

It doesn't matter. If Mozambique is conquered, then either Protugal is still incompletely conquered beause they have other minors left (and picks one of them as a new, new home country) - or Portugal is completely conquered because it has no other aligned countries.

This is an oft-misunderstood intricacy of RAW. Even if Queen Wilhelmina is living in Ottawa, Netherlands is still completely conquered if their last aligned country is conquered. Also if their first choice home country (FREX NEI) is conquered, it is not a Reconquest situation, they simply pull up stakes and move the home country to Dutch Guyana.

Odd that you should mention the NEI and Dutch Guyana. Now, I'm not saying that will be my target (yeah, right, sure it won't), but I've been planning my Japanese moves for this turn and the next very very carefully, and I'm certain I can invade with 5 Corps and 4 Divisions in a single impulse when M/J '41 begins, with 2 TRS to spare. I could do something less impressive for M/A '41, but I'll have more punch and better weather in M/J '41. At that point the USA should probably be close to war anyway, and while there is little left that I can take from them, 9 invasions on a Surprise impulse could gain a lot if done right.

In fact, depending on how things play out for the US Entry (yeah, I guess I'm cheating in favor of the Axis, but it's hard to play as if I do not know those values), I might even take the "historical path" that Japan chose . . . and DOW everyone in sight. French Indo-China is a bit of a pain to not have right now, the UK is still weak in much of the Pacific, the Soviets are going to have their hands full in the West, and the USA . . . well, the USA has the Philippenes, but more importantly, I can prevent them from gaining surprise on Japan.

Another potential benefit in doing this (is this unorthodox or not?) is that I might be able to drive the Ge/It entry level up enough to make it difficult for the USA to DOW the Euro-Axis. If I can conquer China at the same time, even better. If not, it's time to start "collecting" as many of those Communist cities that remain as I can. By M/J '41, the USA is sure to have enacted the Oil Embargo, and probably they'll Pass War Appropriations by then, too. That means war is not far away. If I can force them to add 10-12 chits to the force pool in a single impulse/turn, I might be able to really screw with them. It's possible I won't even have to DOW them yet. All the other chits might be enough to get the job done.

Then again, they might not. But it might be worth a try. [:)]
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Edit: Of course, if the Allies saw this coming, depending on which units are likely to be involved in the invasion force, they might be inclined to urge China to surrender at some point.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Orm

Please, no USSR HQ to Siberia. Siberia can be defended by a couple of infantry stacked in hero cities.

USSR can later on send a HQ to Siberia when they feel like counterattacking.

Edit: USSR might have had no intention of sending a HQ to Siberia but since I was suprised to see Zhukov close to Persia I felt a need to say this.

Don't worry. Siberia is on its own.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

This is what the USSR has to work with in Persia (26 factors) at the moment:

The USSR doesn't need a lot of units here, and certainly not their best unit (Zhukov).

They can form a contiguous front line in 5 doubled hexes where only 1 hex can be attacked from 2 hexes. The other 4 hexes can only be attacked from 1 hex. Supply should not be a problem. If it is (because of weather), then the Axis are going to have supply problems too. Figure the Axis can get at most 18 factors per hex, the Russians only need 10 per attacker hexside to defend at less than 2:1 odds. So, put 10 factors in the corner hex and 5 in the other hexes. If the Axis builds a mass of troops on this front, then put a couple of weaker units (3, 4 factors) behind the front line in reserve.

You have mountain hexes to fall back on, and 2 rivers lines after that. Compared to the endless clear hexes in the Ukraine, this front is virtually invulnerable.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

And the enemy they are likely to face before the Italians get involved (33 factors):

Compare the Mech and Armor in this screenshot to the amount of those unit types facing the USSR right now.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Orm

Please, no USSR HQ to Siberia. Siberia can be defended by a couple of infantry stacked in hero cities.

USSR can later on send a HQ to Siberia when they feel like counterattacking.

Edit: USSR might have had no intention of sending a HQ to Siberia but since I was suprised to see Zhukov close to Persia I felt a need to say this.

Don't worry. Siberia is on its own.

Siberia should get 2 units (plus the Vlad militia). They don't have to be strong units, just something to keep the Japanese from moving freely across the map. Reinforcements can be dropped into cities in the path of their advance from time to time. What you do not want is for the Japanese to simply walk their units across all of Siberia for free every turn.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

This is what the USSR has to work with in Persia (26 factors) at the moment:

The USSR doesn't need a lot of units here, and certainly not their best unit (Zhukov).

They can form a contiguous front line in 5 doubled hexes where only 1 hex can be attacked from 2 hexes. The other 4 hexes can only be attacked from 1 hex. Supply should not be a problem. If it is (because of weather), then the Axis are going to have supply problems too. Figure the Axis can get at most 18 factors per hex, the Russians only need 10 per attacker hexside to defend at less than 2:1 odds. So, put 10 factors in the corner hex and 5 in the other hexes. If the Axis builds a mass of troops on this front, then put a couple of weaker units (3, 4 factors) behind the front line in reserve.

You have mountain hexes to fall back on, and 2 rivers lines after that. Compared to the endless clear hexes in the Ukraine, this front is virtually invulnerable.

Zhukov is there right now because I don't know if I'll have time to set up the "correct" forces in time. Germany has 10 Ground Support factors it can add to any attack, and 5 land moves and 1 rail move per turn has somewhat limited which units I can move to this front.

As for the ARM/MECH units in Tunisia vs. the Soviet border, counting Divisions as 1/2 a unit, the totals are 5 to 5.5 (with 2 more MECH at the start of M/A '41 and another ARM in J/A '41, plus the potential for 2 more MECH that turn). So, as of J/A '41, probably the 2nd turn of the war or maybe the 3rd, it will be 5 to 10.5 . . . and 2 of these units are currently on their way to Beirut via Italian TRS.

Look, I know you have an issue with this. You think it's wrong. Maybe it is. You have made your point. But how will any of us know if it's wrong if I don't try it? Steve, I truly don't mean this to be rude or to sound like sarcasm: have you ever tried this? If not, how do you know it's wrong?

[Red Prince]

By the way, unless one of those 5 units you have for the defense of Baku is an HQ, 2 of them are OOS no matter what the weather is. All it takes is a successful Ground Strike on those units, and your "impenetrable" defense is history.
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Edit: I also haven't yet moved my PARA or ATR out of the Iberian yet. Sure, it might take a while to get them over here, but what happens when a paradrop lands in one of the hexes behind the river line? Oops, everyone is OOS unless they retreat immediately.

[morgil]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

By the way, unless one of those 5 units you have for the defense of Baku is an HQ, 2 of them are OOS no matter what the weather is. All it takes is a successful Ground Strike on those units, and your "impenetrable" defense is history.
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Edit: I also haven't yet moved my PARA or ATR out of the Iberian yet. Sure, it might take a while to get them over here, but what happens when a paradrop lands in one of the hexes behind the river line? Oops, everyone is OOS unless they retreat immediately.

Iberian

Its one of those classic mistakes I used to do alot in my first games, defending too hard in one spot, making me lose the game in another.
If you put a 4 strenght unit in a mountain hex that can only be attacked from one other hex, the opponent needs 24 factors just to get a 3:1 attack. And the corner spot would be ideal for a whiteprint unit or two. If and when the germans get bombers there, you should counter that with fighters, and when they add fighters, then you should consider railing your worst HQ to the forest there.

On the baltic front, you have overdefended the speedbumps, 9 factors is not not a threat, and it does not do any better job than 4 factors would do. So youre sacrificing two units where one would suffice.
Remember that in the surprice impulse only a drunk stukapilot will fail to flip a unit in range, and that a div is not worth 1 to the defence, but +1 to the attacker for being flipped.

Your units in south Poland can be encircled, OOSed and killed at leasure in 1943, and unless you have a convoy point in the Black Sea, the units in Bessarabia, like the 8 pooint stack is worth like 3 flipped, and can be overrun by a mere 14 factors, and OOSing the flipped 10 point stack allowing 9 factors to overrun that.
Also note that Divs have no ZOC outside their own hex.

Two nonfail bombruns and two more tanks/mech in Rumania and Odessa falls on the surprise impulse..

Ofc, I know you wont keep it like this, and that shit weather and short turns have left you in a bit off a pickle, but just sayin

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: morgil

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

By the way, unless one of those 5 units you have for the defense of Baku is an HQ, 2 of them are OOS no matter what the weather is. All it takes is a successful Ground Strike on those units, and your "impenetrable" defense is history.
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Edit: I also haven't yet moved my PARA or ATR out of the Iberian yet. Sure, it might take a while to get them over here, but what happens when a paradrop lands in one of the hexes behind the river line? Oops, everyone is OOS unless they retreat immediately.

Iberian

Its one of those classic mistakes I used to do alot in my first games, defending too hard in one spot, making me lose the game in another.
If you put a 4 strenght unit in a mountain hex that can only be attacked from one other hex, the opponent needs 24 factors just to get a 3:1 attack. And the corner spot would be ideal for a whiteprint unit or two. If and when the germans get bombers there, you should counter that with fighters, and when they add fighters, then you should consider railing your worst HQ to the forest there.

On the baltic front, you have overdefended the speedbumps, 9 factors is not not a threat, and it does not do any better job than 4 factors would do. So youre sacrificing two units where one would suffice.
Remember that in the surprice impulse only a drunk stukapilot will fail to flip a unit in range, and that a div is not worth 1 to the defence, but +1 to the attacker for being flipped.

Your units in south Poland can be encircled, OOSed and killed at leasure in 1943, and unless you have a convoy point in the Black Sea, the units in Bessarabia, like the 8 pooint stack is worth like 3 flipped, and can be overrun by a mere 14 factors, and OOSing the flipped 10 point stack allowing 9 factors to overrun that.
Also note that Divs have no ZOC outside their own hex.

Two nonfail bombruns and two more tanks/mech in Rumania and Odessa falls on the surprise impulse..

Ofc, I know you wont keep it like this, and that shit weather and short turns have left you in a bit off a pickle, but just sayin

RE: the Division in Kaunas (or wherever it is). That unit hs been there ever since the Baltic States were claimed -- by that unit. I haven't had time or moves available to get it out yet.

RE: Bessarabia and the Baltics. See the above comment. Too many units, not enough time. Those double stack speed bumbs are there because they were contributing to the Garrison Value. I felt it was more important to clear the units out of SE Poland than to get these units un-stacked. Don't forget that Cernauti and Chisinau are part of the USSR and can have Reserve units placed there to make sure supply still exists in Bessarabia. That means those 2 stacks near Chisinau can screen for the Odessa factory to rail out and then try to get out of there. Also, you need to check your calculations for an overrun -- you need 7:1 to do it, so 14 factors can't overrun 3, and 9 factors can't overrun 2.

RE: The Persian mountains. A single 4-factor unit is great in the mountains, unless the 3 bombers in Syria just happen to rebase to Iraq and then just happen to flip these units on the surprise impulse (or any other). As I said in my previous post, there needs to be an HQ as one of those 5, or 2 of them are going to be OOS no matter what. Flip those and it's a walk though the park as the 3:1 attack becomes a 12:1 (Automatic on the 1D10 CRT).