Taming the Bear - Rader (J) vs. jzanes (A). A jzanes-free zone.

[rader]

Meanwhile, the KB is on the other side of the world in the Bay of Bengal. The situation in Burma was so bad that I decided the best role the KB could play was to nuke allied 4E bomber airfields. There just dosen't seem to be another way to kill these guys. In conjuction with LBA, major Japanese airstrikes went off against the allied bomber airfields. The strikes were highly successful and reportedly over 120 allied 4E bombers have been torched.

The result of the fighting on both sides of the Pacific was over 900 aircraft lost in a single turn..!! [X(]

[Xxzard]

Wow. That has to put a dent in the scale of the Allied bombing campaign. Those are not easily replaced losses.

[CapAndGown]

That is 2 1/2 months of production for B-24s. I would think that would definitely blunt allied air operations.

[rader]

September 29-December 11, 1943

October and November 1943 have been exceptionally quiet months, with almost no fighting anywhere.

But suddenly, with December 1943 upon us, things have heated up. Six days ago, an allied fleet was spotted heading directly for Timor. The fleet contained a large but undetermined number of Carriers, in addition to many other warships and numerous transports and landing craft. It is uncertain whether this was an attempt to actually land on Timor, a heavily escroted convoy bound for Darwin, an attempt to land on a small island near Timor, or merely a probe of Japanese defenses.

Over 3000 Japanese aircraft deployed to meet the Allied Armada, and the result was the Battle of the Timor Sea. With intensive air strikes, and the allied fleet supported by land-based air pounding Japanese airfields, total losses in the battle were something like 1500 Japanese aircraft to maybe 600 allied. Nevertheless, 2 CVEs are credibly reported sunk (having taken 2 torpedoes each), Enterprise was hit by 4-5 250 kg bombs, and Saratoga was also hit by a couple.

The allied fleet has retired to Broome, apparently having abandonend their mission. Yet the loss of so many aircraft and around 600 Japanese pilots will hurt.

[rader]

Meanwhile, allied bombing of Burma has resumed, although not much has actually changed. Japanese air units have been temporarily withdraw from Burma to fight in Timor.

[rader]

And near Noumea and allied fleet of CVEs and transports appears to be approaching the New Hebrides. This is most unnexpected: the allies have split their carriers. Is this a simultaneous move against the Japanese New Caledonia/New Hebrides Salient? Stay tuned!

[rader]

Air losses on the last day of the battle of the Timor Sea - and this was probably the lightest day!!

[rader]

Massive carnage (again)!

Turned out that the Allies really were landing in the New Hebrides. They managed to gain a secure foothold at 4 dot bases and will now start operation build airfields... Once the airfields are complete, we won't be able to maintain supply down there and it will be all over. But this salient probably isn't worth fighting for ~ or evacuating. We'll just see how much time it can buy.

Japanese aircraft were waiting for them and inflicted fairly heavy casualties, including two reported CVEs (unconfirmed). Each of the reported CVEs took at least a couple 500 kg bombs, and maybe the odd 250 kg (carried by Helens on LowN). I would say there is a good chance they will sink, but I don't think they're actually sunk yet because there were no reported allied carrier plane ground losses.

However, allied 4E bombers launched a massive counterstrike raid at Noumea, the main Japanese airfield, costing us tons of planes, especially Bettys. This brings Japanese aircraft losses in the last few week or so to ~2000 aircraft. Ouch.

Will Japan run out of planes before the Allies run out of ships? See comparison below... [X(]

[rader]

Note also that our ASW Helens have been doing an excellent job nailing the Allied subs - so much so that allied subs hardly dare to venture into Japanese waters.

I do think ASW (air and maybe surface) is overpowered, but then subs might be as well.

[FatR]

Allies are more than a bit too late with their offensive. At this rate, unless they can follow up these battles with a real invasion somewhere in DEI very soon, they will not be able to threaten anything vital until late 1944.

[rader]

But why is that a problem for him? He is being deliberate and taking his time, and he has until the spring of 1946 anyway. Once he has all the summer 1944 Essexes, he can attack almost anywhere at will. I think the 'real' offensives will be in 1945. It's not a race.

I think also he got a little spooked by reading cap_and_gown's late 1943 carrier battle news. That made him even more cautious. Actually, I think he's doing the right thing here.

[FatR]

No matter how powerful your forces are, logistics will limit the tempo of operations and need to keep a secure line of communications will likely prevent your opponent from going straight for the throat (still, I'd have fortified Curiles, Bonin Islands and so on strongly, in case of an attempt to do exactly that). In addition IJA expansion late in the war and simple time will make Japanese land defences stronger with time. Japanese plane production must expand strongly in 1944 as well, considering that most of the major warships should be built already. Allies don't have unlimited time.

[CapAndGown]

Have the allies lost any fleet carriers?

You have a lot of islands in the DEI garrisoned. Are these SNLF/Nav Guard units? Have units been freed up from Manchuria?

[rader]

No CVs or CVLs lost on either side. Big E and Sara took a few bombs and Wasp took a torpedo a while back, and Hosho was sunk raiding. H's being really careful with his carriers.

I'm trying to have just about everything garrisoned, but often they are just fragments. This is mostly anti-paratrooper defense, but also for intel purposes (misdirection as to true strength). Some of the fragments are a reasonable size though.

[rader]

December 15, 1943.

In the past few turns there have been massive air battles in Burma, and he's backed off there and in the Timor region. We've shot down roughly 50 4E bombers lately.

The only region he is maintaining air pressure is Noumea. I suspect his fleet carriers are coming around Australia (from the Timor sea about a week ago) to support his operation in the New Hebrides. However, if it comes to a major battle for the region, I'm not sure I want to get entangled here with my fleet. It is awfully far from my other friendly bases, and close to his. I'm happy to commit some air units here, but I only have 3 airfields in the area and I'm concerned about getting my air units trapped here while he shuts down the airfield. I'm considering a withdrawl of all Japanese units in the region to the Solomons, but if I do so, I think it will be more of the cash & carry air transport and fast transport variety... I don't want to risk any ships in the operation.

On the other hand, the main point of holding this area is to lengthen his communication lines and bleed him as he tried to take it. Maybe I should leave the troops to fight and die? We're talking about around 2 divisions in total, plus supporting troops. Not sure about the right course of action.

I definitely think Cap & Gown has the right idea about builidng as many 4+ mutually supporting airfields as possible. I have held off building too many because I was concerned about him taking them intact -- but of course the allies can build an airfield so fast that him having to build them from scratch only costs him a couple days. [8|] I think I need more airfields in the Solomons to make a fight of it... And the Solomons are close enough to Truk/Rabaul that I might actually consider committing the KB to their defense.

[paullus99]

He's got a lot of bases (and probably a lot of engineers) to build up against just a few of yours. Are you really loosing anything at this point? If you can consolidate & use the KB as your mobile reserve in support of inter-locking friendly airfields, you have a much better shot at making this a fair fight.

[rader]

ORIGINAL: paullus99

He's got a lot of bases (and probably a lot of engineers) to build up against just a few of yours. Are you really loosing anything at this point? If you can consolidate & use the KB as your mobile reserve in support of inter-locking friendly airfields, you have a much better shot at making this a fair fight.

You mean am I losing anything by evacuating New Caledonia? Not really, just the potential to cause him harm, delay him, and interdic his supplies to the New Hebrides/Solomons. He can't really move on the Solomons until he takes New Caledonia.

[rader]

December 23, 1943

Another day, another bomb.

Noumea is taking a daily pounding. Actually a relatively successful set of air battles today (31 4E bombers destroyed, about 20 days of replacements).

Nevertheless, if his CVs are coming around Australia, there is no way this salient will hold long. Additionally, we'll need the troops if were going to make a stand in the Solomons.

[rader]

Wow, we made it to 1944!

January 2, 1944.

The only action these days is in the New Hebrides, which he is building up with AKs and landing craft. A couple days ago, we returned to Noumea in force and sank about 10 allied AKs and some DEs. He's now got a lvl 2 and a lvl 3 airbase in the region and his ability to project land based air is growing by the day.

Where are the allied carriers? There has been no sign of them since they were cruising the Timor sea around over 2 weeks ago. I suspected they were coming around Australia, and if so, they must be getting close by now. But our sub pickets haven't reported a thing, so now I'm thinking they might be sticking it out in the Indian Ocean. And now that he's got airbases in the New Hebrides, he probably dosen't even need them.

I'm concerned that since it is now fairly late to still be fighting in the New Hebrides, or even the Solomons, he might skip the whole Solomons-Marshalls-Gilberts thing and go straight for the jugular -- either the Bonin/Marianas, or maybe Java/Sumatra/Andaman islands. Thinking about it, why does he even have to press across the Pacific? Can't he just sail into Palembang?

Not that I haven't been concerned about this since day 1. Sumatra (especially the vulnerable West coast) has been a defensive priority since I took it. Thus the entire area hasn't exactly been neglected. But I feel obliged to defend the entire perimeter, and if sailed in with say, 20 divisions, what would stop him? To be sure, I would be able to launch massed air attacks on his fleet, but certainly many ships and troops would get through.

I think the only real thing that would prevent this kind of jump across the pond strategy is that he'd have to bring in supplies to maintain the offensive. And that would be rather difficult and costly without any airbases (or maybe the very few that he could sieze/buildup in short order). He would be utterly reliant on CV-based air cover, and his carrier fleet, though now surely superior to the KB, probably isn't superior to the KB AND Japanese land-based air. I think this is why he has mostly limited himself to objectives that he can support with his own land based air (which is probably a good idea). But within a couple of months, I'm not so sure he won't be able to jump across the pond much more safely.

[rader]

January 22, 1944.

It's official ~ we're pulling out of Burma.

A series of Allied outflanking moves along the coast and a major Chindit airdrop (200 AV) near Rangoon was the final straw convincing me to take this action.

Actually, I'm not convinced we couldn't hold the line a lot longer (maybe even into 1945), but I want to withdraw while I still have a good chance of pulling out the units intact. If I wait too long, I'm likely to get some of the units cut off and trapped. Also, by withdrawing I can reduce the danger of a landing behind the lines and shorten my lines in general to form a reserve to deal with potential dangers.

The only real drawback is the extra supplies China will get once Rangoon is back in Allied hands, and the fact that the Allies will now have all the great airfields I worked so hard to buildup in Burma... but of course, if the allies want to, they can build an airfield from scratch in no time at all.

Lots of air action in Burma this turn. We decided to bomb the main allied bomber base, but he pulled out and swarmed the airfield with fighters instead... good guess on his part!

The New Hebrides have gone relatively quiet. No bombing, and no ships bigger than landing craft have been identified in the area. He's definitely reinforcing, but it's more of the slow ooze than a major operation. I have to be careful not to get too comitted in the area against what migt be nothing more than diversionary forces.

Where are the allies? There's been no sign of the allied carriers for over a month and a half now. They must have several fast battleships and tons of Essexes by now. I know they're planning something big, I just don't know where...

Japanese forces are on high alert all around the perimeter ~ stay tuned.