A Canuck in the Pacific - ADavidB vs Treespider

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: spence

Treespider continued PT boat-hunting in the Philippines and DEI. A Japanese CL/DD TF attacked the American PTs at Davao, sinking one. Another duplicate Japanese CL/DD TF attacked the Dutch PTs at Pontianak and sank one of them too. I'm not a big fan of the changes that were made to the PT model a few game-revisions back; PTs are almost useless now

If you've got some PPs to play with try messing around with leaders for the PTs a little. I splurged some PPs on a pair of boats that had retreated to Davao in my PBEM (see AAR). In a series of engagements over the course of 5 or so days the PTs sank 2 DDs and an AP and damaged several more Jap ships. Only lost one PT.

I've already improved upon the PT leaders. But even with good leaders, PTs don't do well against dedicated hunter/killer CL+DD TFs. But thanks for the suggestion! [:)]

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

David,

Just tuned into this AAR - it's great!

Don't worry too much about the Enterprise, Captain Kirk will bring her out in one piece! [:'(]

Hi - thanks for the support. Scotty is doing everything he can to get the last bit out of the warp engines... [:D]

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 12, 1942 -

The "Great Chase" continues and the Big E is alive, well and still running. Allied search planes detected a Japanese TF in the New Hebrides, yet an Alf located the Enterprise's TF far to the west. So the KB must have been split into several portions in an attempt to cover the obvious retreat directions for the US TF. I still believe that I can reach "safety" (fuel and supplies) ahead of any Japanese pursuers, but we'll see what the next day brings. In any event, I'm starting to clear out the few other TFs that I have in the region in anticipation of Japanese carriers popping up anywhere from the East Coast of Australia to New Caledonia or New Zealand, to anywhere in the South Seas.

All sorts of other action went on simultaneous with the drama in the South Seas. More Japanese troops landed at Kendari and Lunga, and another US submarine attack in the Slot failed. Meanwhile, the Japanese TF that had been heading to Palembang turned around after receiving hard hits to two of its APs the previous turn. So it looks as if the defenders of Palembang can breathe easier for a little while longer. In the meanwhile, Treespider increased his aerial attacks on Batavia, starting out with a Zero sweep and following up with another escorted bomber attack. Fortunately, my brave Dutch defenders were able to deflect much of the strength of the attack and the air fields at Batavia remain in operation.

Treespider surprised me with a multi-pronged attack on Koepang this turn. I had sent the Dutch SC TF back to Koepang to get some fuel, thinking that the Japanese forces had pulled back to "lick their wounds". But a small AC TF remained with the Ryujo and Hosho. This time the attacks from the Allied LBA missed the target and the two small Japanese carriers launched an attack that damaged the Java and a Dutch destroyer despite the US P-40E CAP shooting down a number of planes. Then a very long range Japanese LBA attack came in past the tired CAP and finished off the Java.

In light of the fact that Treespider is being so aggressive, and also that a number of the planes on the two small carriers were shot down, I'm sending the replenished Lexington TF back to the Koepang area to see if I can get "lucky". I'd love to catch those two carriers with their defenses depleted. It's even worth risking the Japanese LBA, and just in case, I've sent out a two-MSW TF from Darwin to try to attract any long range attacks. We'll have to see how it goes - with the right combination of luck I could set back the Japanese plans in the DEI quite a bit! [;)]

In the ground war, the Japanese besiegers of Manila reverted to an artillery attack this turn, as did the attackers at Wuchow. Ichang held against a deliberate attack, but time appears to be running out for the defenders. For some reason that I can't understand, the defenders of Johore Bahru easily withstood a deliberate attack by nearly 10 times as many Japanese troops. And both Kendari and Lunga were captured. The airfields at Kendari suffered a fair amount of damage so I should be safe from aerial attacks from there for a couple of days.

Dave Baranyi

[jwilkerson]

I've seen that theory proposed before, and it sounds reasonable, but I have rarely had the opportunity to bring my CVs together in one Theater. Keeping them split usually gives me more opportunities, particularly since Japanese players tend to keep their CVs in one or two big TFs, and those TFs can't be everywhere at once.

Certainly each game is different and flexibility is the key. Having the full range of options at your disposal, even from a conceptual perspective, is,of course, best. And many folks have put the theory into practice.

Regardless of how many CVs you have in one area, running them in single carrier TFs is the best way of working around the allied CV strike limitation. The single carrier TF essentially nullifies the rule. Once 42 is behind you .. then you can run 2 carrier task forces and in 44 you can revert to historical usage.

Re-stated the allied CV strike penalty can be nullified by running multiple single carrier TFs together in the same hex with the "follow" order, as opposed to running them in one multi-carrier TF. However, I strongly recommend that players "practice" with the multiple-single-carrier TFs before using them in PBEM. If it is not done correctly it can lead to disaster. I would practice with a h2h game and run several interations. The slowest TF needs to be the lead. And the follwing TFs need to have the patrol order. If the lead TF is not a carrier TF then the react distance will not be meaningful. So using the slow BBs as the lead TF early on, needs to be balanced against the value of closing the range. The Japanese can fight at 4-5 hexes and win the US needs to close the range. So if you are fighting true open sea battle, then you probably can't lead with the slow BB .. but if land mass like Papua intervenes and closure is not possible, then leading with the slow BBs is good idea, as they have good chance of absorbing a strike.

But I never argue with a method that works. If dispersing your CVs across the map works for you then by all means, keep it up. But remember that "Flexibility is the key". Knowing when to split and when to concentrate (and HOW to concentrate) .. provides the full array of flexabilty needed to counter the early war IJN.

[ADavidB]

January 13, 1942 -

This was a turn of "no luck"; or at least of luck balancing out. The Enterprise TF wasn't spotted by any ship-borne search planes this turn, but instead was spotted by a Glen from an unseen sub somewhere off the East Coast of Australia. So Treespider again knows where the TF is at. However, this time half of the ships in the TF are in the "red" as far as fuel goes, including the Enterprise, so I no longer have any options and I am heading straight into Brisbane, which contains lots of fuel and supplies. I've got to hope that one of several things has happened:

- Treespider gave up and sent his ships back for fuel and supplies
- Treespider sent his ships the wrong way (such as down towards New Zealand)
- The Japanese ships are also low on fuel and are being slowed down

Tomorrow will tell. Once the TF is replenished at Brisbane I am sending it further south for rest and repair, and if the KB stays away, for an upgrade of the fighters on board the Big E.

In the Timor region luck avoided the Lexington TF too. The Japanese small carrier TF went to the east of Timor instead of the west, and thus was out of range of the Lexington which only made it to the Koepang region. The Japanese carrier TF was spotted and attacked by LBA from Darwin, but was able to fight off the P-40Bs and bombers without any damage. The only good thing was that the Lexington TF wasn't spotted and so I am sending it to the east side of Timor in an attempt to catch the Japanese carriers once and for all. Sure, it's chancy, but those Japanese carrier planes have been fighting for several days without rest and a number were destroyed the previous day. This is too good of an opportunity to pass up.

In another unlucky occurrence, Treespider sent a bunch of Sallys escorted by Zeros to attack Lashio. I had Brit Buffalos on CAP, but the Japanese planes just blew past them and had a good bombing run. I am totally frustrated with the inability of the Brit air groups, so I pulled this one back and replaced it with another third of the AVG. I need to buy a couple of week's time at Lashio for the Chinese troops to finally arrive, so I can't afford to have my troops bombed. But this just opens up a "hole" somewhere else. [:(]

The Japanese invasion of Pontianak started this turn, despite Dutch bombers from Soerabaja hitting an AP and a CA. Batavia was blasted by sweeping Zeros and 80 Nells again, so I'm just pulling planes back now; there is no way I can stop the attacks. I suspect that Treespider may try to invade Batavia before he invades Palembang. If I can only delay him for a week, I might be able to get the Lexington there to interfere with the invasion. (Gawd, I'm an optimist! [:D] )

In the ground war Ichang survived another deliberate attack, but the fortifications are down to "0" so one more attack ought to end the battle. Wuchow received an artillery bombardment again, but Treespider is accumulating lots of troops there, therefore I expect a serious attack to occur there soon. Manila was blasted repeatedly from the air, and then suffered an artillery bombardment. I suspect that the next land attack won't be as bad for the Japanese as the last one. And Johore Bahru was captured easily this turn. It's Singapore's turn next.

BTW - my Chinese forces at Changsha bombarded the besieging Japanese troops this turn and did very well. Treespider had been pulling troops back from Changsha so that he can concentrate on other more promising attacks such as at Wuchow and Ichang. But the attack used up so many supplies that I won't be doing that again for a while. BTW - Japanese troops finally moved in to Yenen, so I set my troops there to do an artillery attack next turn. I hate the China Game…

Dave Baranyi

[Grotius]

I don't love the China game either, but once you know the rules, it's okay. I'm just not sure I know the rules, heh.

On the edge of my seat, waiting to hear what happens to the Big E...

[ADavidB]

January 14, 1942 -

This was definitely a turn where very little went right. But then, things could have been much worse. But you know that "it's going to be one of those days" when a turn starts out with the Enterprise TF reaching Brisbane safely only to have the Indianapolis hit a mine on the way in; and then to have I-168 put two torpedoes into the Indy! Two bits of good fortune then happened; the escorts hit I-168 hard with depth charges, and the combat report didn't show the Enterprise being present. So I was able to refuel and replenish all the ships and safely disband the Indy into port. I've now got the Enterprise TF set to head south at full speed. All of the air groups are back to full strength. I doubt that any parts of the KB are around, but I'm not taking any chances.

The next piece of bad luck occurred in the Timor area, where the Japanese small carrier TF dallied around "without a care in the world" as the Lexington TF couldn't find a thing. The Japanese carriers were sticking around to protect a BB-lead bombardment TF came in to hit Lautem. This likely means that another transport TF is showing up soon. The LBA from Darwin tried again to hit the Japanese carriers but without any luck. Undeterred, I ordered the Lexington TF further to the east in a third attempt to find that CVL and CVE. I've also replaced the tired out Australian bombers in Darwin with fresh bombers.

The Dutch Air Force tried hard to interfere with the invasion of Pontianak and Dutch bombers did put a bomb into an AP and two into CA Haruna, but the Japanese continued to land anyway. Batavia was whacked hard by huge air attacks yet again, rendering it essentially useless, so the attacks on the TFs at Pontianak had to fly in from Soerabaja.

The US PT boats in Mindanao tried to surprise the Japanese transports at Cotabato, but were surprised in turn by a CL/DD SC TF that was hanging around. Scratch two more US PT boats.

In the ground war, the big news was that a deliberate attack on Ichang succeeded. Since my troops weren't surrounded they did get out and will try to make it to Sian or Homan. Now Treespider has a road, albeit very slow, on which he can move to try to cut the Chinese forces in half. I've already got some blocking troops in place and will attempt to move more ahead of the Japanese, as well as bomb Ichang to eliminate Japanese supplies. (The Japanese troops certainly didn't find any supplies there waiting for them.)

In other ground news, Wuchow, Lashio and Manila all received artillery bombardments. The Dutch troops at Pontianak survived a deliberate attack, but they won't last long. And the Chinese troops were able to mount a reasonably successful artillery attack on the three Japanese Mongol divisions that are besieging Yenen, but as with Changsha, I'm not repeating that in order to save supply.

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 15, 1942 -

It was a case of "third time unlucky" for the Lexington as once again it failed to find the Japanese TFs off of Timor. Now the second Japanese CVE is back and the Lexington TF is running low on fuel, so I've given up and am letting them head back to port. This is what I call the "Curse of the Allies" - the inability of Allied forces to get a "break" during 1942 in the Game. For whatever reason, the same sorts of attacks that work in December 1941, done by the same units, but now with more supplies, fuel, etcetera, just don't work in 1942. Everything gets rained in during the critical times. Allied planes don't fly. Allied ships go to the wrong locations, Allied troops don't march. I suspect that it has to do with the factor that unit "experience" plays in the Game, because you don't see it as frequently with the Japanese. And there are design factors too. For example, regard this "Battle of the Titans" below:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Jolo at 38, 59

Japanese Ships
PG Edo Maru, Shell hits 8, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PG Saiko Maru, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
PG Tatsumiya Maru

Allied Ships
PT PT-31
PT PT-32, Shell hits 3, and is sunk

The two US PT boats surprised the Japanese PGs on patrol, put torpedoes into two of them and then machine-gunned both ships that were torpedoed. But neither of those two heavily damaged PGs sank, while the remaining Japanese PG sank one of the US PT boats. Sure, eventually those two heavily damaged PGs may well eventually sink, but for now the US attack has been disrupted and the Japanese transport ships at Jolo were totally unaffected by the effort. Oh well, what are you going to do?

Speaking of sinking later, another Japanese AP from the first Lautem invasion sank in port this turn. And Dutch bombers hit a Japanese PC at Lautem. But nothing important was done anywhere by the Allies again. BTW - the Enterprise TF is happily sailing down the coast of Australia towards some well deserved repairs and some aircraft upgrades. I like to think that the Enterprise's misadventure and near disaster in the Solomons at least helped to disrupt the Japanese timetable a bit.

In the ground war the Japanese units appeared to be in a "catch your breath" mode this turn. Deliberate attacks at Lautem and Pontianak failed, but it won't take much more for both bases to fall. Wuchow, Lashio and Manila all received artillery bombardments. A surprise shock attack at Davao failed. (I have no idea where those troops came from.)

In the air war, hundreds upon hundreds of Japanese planes attacked everywhere. Most Allied air attacks were cancelled due to rain. (This is why I have no patience at all for Japanese player "whiners" who complain later on about Allied massed air attacks.)

Dave Baranyi

[Tophat1815]

Dave,
If all my planned air-attacks would have gone off or all my LRCAP flown you'd of been crying about more than the weather.Weather works for and against both players.Its not an AI ally of the japanese.

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: Tophat1812



Dave,
If all my planned air-attacks would have gone off or all my LRCAP flown you'd of been crying about more than the weather.Weather works for and against both players.Its not an AI ally of the japanese.

Read my first paragraph again, but more closely. There are a number of things that I and many others have observed that have only one common factor - unit experience. At the start of the game many Japanese units have much more experience than most Allied units. Japanese units that have lower experience tend to perform against Game conditions in a manner similar if not equivalent to that of the average Allied unit. So, for example, my theory is that's why the Japanese CVEs and CVLs tend to get surprised during the early stages of the game.

So as a consequence of this, the AVG tends to fly more often than the rest of the less experienced Allied units unless the Allied player lets the AVG get worn down and the good pilots replaced by bad. And when a Japanese player tries to fly low experience units in China to get them experience, they fly less often.

In any event, my premise isn't that it is an "AI ally of the Japanese", but an outcome of the relative experience levels of the units of the two sides.

Should it be that way? Should experience 80 pilots be able to fly in thunderstorms when experience 60 pilots won't? My gut feeling is that they should, but then they should be impacted by operational damage that is not related to experience.

Maybe Don and gang will explain the experience factors a bit more some time in the future.

Take care -

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 16, 1942 -

Rain affected operations everywhere and on both sides too. The usual huge Japanese air raids were for the most part absent, but the land actions continued. The situation in China is deteriorating rapidly. Big and strong Japanese divisions are moving across country as if they are on rail lines and blasting out in a single my Chinese units that took so painfully long to get in position. Treespider will likely have the Allied part of China split in half within a game-month.

Lautem was captured easily this turn. My bombers from Koepang couldn't get through the CAP and the transports in Lautem sat at ease. Pontianak held, but I expect it to fall at the next attack. The Commonwealth forces at Lashio repelled an attack this turn, but another Japanese unit is on its way, and it will likely beat the Chinese units to Lashio. With the Advanced Weather now getting fully into the "bad weather lock" mode, fewer and fewer Allied bombing runs take off each turn, which directly affects my ability to wear down the advancing Japanese.

Lexington reached port, refueled and is now sailing towards Broome. I'm going to send it around to Perth where there is plenty of supply so that I can upgrade the fighters and fill-out the bomber groups. Enterprise is safely in port and has already done its fighter upgrades. So the early "adventure" period is over for the Allies. Now I'll have to be more careful and selective of any raids.

Treespider has been moving Japanese naval forces back towards the Marshalls and has had his long range search planes checking out Midway. It will be interesting to see if Treespider takes the time to capture all the bases that he has bypassed in his early rush, or if he continues to extend outwards to other strategic bases.

Dave Baranyi

[Tophat1815]

ORIGINAL: ADavidB

ORIGINAL: Tophat1812



Dave,
If all my planned air-attacks would have gone off or all my LRCAP flown you'd of been crying about more than the weather.Weather works for and against both players.Its not an AI ally of the japanese.

Read my first paragraph again, but more closely. There are a number of things that I and many others have observed that have only one common factor - unit experience. At the start of the game many Japanese units have much more experience than most Allied units. Japanese units that have lower experience tend to perform against Game conditions in a manner similar if not equivalent to that of the average Allied unit. So, for example, my theory is that's why the Japanese CVEs and CVLs tend to get surprised during the early stages of the game.

So as a consequence of this, the AVG tends to fly more often than the rest of the less experienced Allied units unless the Allied player lets the AVG get worn down and the good pilots replaced by bad. And when a Japanese player tries to fly low experience units in China to get them experience, they fly less often.

In any event, my premise isn't that it is an "AI ally of the Japanese", but an outcome of the relative experience levels of the units of the two sides.

Should it be that way? Should experience 80 pilots be able to fly in thunderstorms when experience 60 pilots won't? My gut feeling is that they should, but then they should be impacted by operational damage that is not related to experience.

Maybe Don and gang will explain the experience factors a bit more some time in the future.

Take care -

Dave Baranyi

Very well written theory,however in two instances in China during our last game I had Zero groups in the 80's experience level not fly Cap in Wuhan due to weather. Unfortunatly your RAF bombers were under no such impediment flying from Chunking and into weather they dropped their ordinance to rather devestaing effect.
Might be abit more involved than superior experience allows flightOps in weather hexes. Or perhaps you got lucky twice and i didn't.Overall i'd bet things averageout during the course of 1000 plus turns in a full campaign.
Hmmmn,on second thought they have done so much interms of the ASW and sub ops perhaps you are onto something.

[ADavidB]

Very well written theory,however in two instances in China during our last game I had Zero groups in the 80's experience level not fly Cap in Wuhan due to weather. Unfortunatly your RAF bombers were under no such impediment flying from Chunking and into weather they dropped their ordinance to rather devestaing effect.
Might be abit more involved than superior experience allows flightOps in weather hexes. Or perhaps you got lucky twice and i didn't.Overall i'd bet things averageout during the course of 1000 plus turns in a full campaign.
Hmmmn,on second thought they have done so much interms of the ASW and sub ops perhaps you are onto something.

What you have described is another of the things that I'm hoping that Don and gang take a look at. Currently in the air model, what counts is the weather at the base from which the planes are taking off. So the weather can be bad enough for CAP to not go up, but it doesn't affect incoming bombers that took off from a clear base. Thus the target airbase gets creamed.

When you add to this odd set-up the Advanced Weather "lock-in" problem, you get situations where the weather remains thunderstorms over regions for months at a time. I suspect that the lower experience air crews miss most of their "experience checks" and so don't fly. The higher experience air crews make more of the "experience checks" and thus fly more often. And if there are neighboring bases in a different region where the weather hasn't locked-in to as bad a weather cycle, the air crews there get to fly even more often.

But I think that this relationship between weather and experience covers more than just the air units. I suspect that the times when TFs don't find others are controlled by similar weather-related "experience checks". I see that with the ASW TFs that I send out. A few of the more experienced TFs will detect subs almost regardless of the weather while the rest will miss subs despite travelling right over the sub if the weather isn't clear. So I have a dozen ASW TFs travelling back and forth through a few hexes which are full of enemy subs and only the one more experienced TF spots anything. Initially in the game many if not most of the ASW TFs find some subs. As the game moves forward and bad weather locks-in fewer of the lower experience ASW ships find any subs, despite the fact that the ships are supposed to be gaining experience, albeit slowly. The only factor that has changed significantly is the weather, which has changed significantly for the worse. After the Allied ships get radar the effect goes down a bit, as one would expect, so that part of the game design seems to be okay.

Since we all fly orders of magnitude more air missions than we sail naval missions, the experience/weather effect shows up more for air units than it does for naval units. But I believe that it is in effect for all. The issue comes about because of Advanced Weather lock-in which then differentially penalizes the side with lower experience units. Instead of it "evening out" over a thousand turns, it actually aids the differentiation into "rich and poor" by making it relatively easier for experienced units to get their jobs done and gain more experience than for the lower experience units.

In the end, IMO, the answer is to "unlock" the Advanced Weather so that it doesn't lock into artifical "severe weather" zones. I also think that there ought to be "good weather" zones in addition to "severe weather" zones. So while the North get be locked-down by blizzards in the winter months, semi-arid areas like Southern California or Australia ought to have their equivalent "dry summers" that don't have any storms or clouds. (And yes, I am aware that Australian summer is at opposite times from California summer.)

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 17, 1942 -

We are only five weeks into the War and it is already becoming "crunch time" in a number of places. Treespider continues to push in numerous different regions as he attempts to gain key strategic locations before I can set up proper defenses. If I can find ways to stop him in one or two of these highly aggressive drives I should be able to throw his entire schedule off. But how am I going to stop him?

Misdirection always helps to a good extent when you are fighting from behind the power curve. For example, Brisbane was buzzed this turn by Alfs from a Japanese TF that appeared offshore, 7 or so hexes due east. I presume that this is some significant portion of the KB even though my search planes only reported cruisers. (Treespider isn't silly enough to try to hunt down an undamaged carrier with surface ships.) The Indy is sitting in Brisbane harbor with serious damage; it isn't going anywhere and if Treespider decides to come in and bomb the port there is little I can do about it.

But then, if that mystery Japanese TF is putzing around Brisbane, it is using up a lot of fuel and isn’t bothering me somewhere else. I have almost nothing else on the east coast of Oz, and nothing within reasonable sailing distance of the Japanese TF anyway. Oh yes, before I forget, the Enterprise and its escorts are far away and getting farther away every day. And they will soon enough be in a position to get into "mischief" again along with another US carrier group. Having two US carriers around will definitely change the dynamics of any raid. [:D]

Another interesting bit of news was that one of my subs in the Eastern Solomons was buzzed by a Kate this turn. There aren't any air bases in operation yet in that region, so there must be another CV there too. That is good news from my perspective as far as operations in the Eastern Pacific go. I can now redistribute troops, supplies and fuel at will instead of worrying about Japanese carriers coming out of the "blue". And just to keep Treespider "honest", I sent the Yorktown carrier TF out of San Fran and towards Pearl with full air searching; I want Treespider's spy subs to see that where the Yorktown is at; the more that he looks for US carriers in the Eastern Pacific and South Pacific, the happier I'll be. [;)] Speaking of which, a Japanese sub showed up off of Suva this turn, so Treespider is trying to see what I've got going on down there too.

The area of conflict that has much more inherent danger is in Mainland Asia. Treespider sent a big air strike against Lashio that got past the third of the AVG that I had in place:

Day Air attack on Lashio, at 35, 30

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 21
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 17
Ki-21 Sally x 54

Allied aircraft
P-40B Tomahawk x 12

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-21 Sally: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40B Tomahawk: 5 destroyed, 3 damaged

Allied ground losses:
19 casualties reported
Guns lost 2
Vehicles lost 1

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 29

That's obviously a crack Japanese Zero unit. I can't let Treespider gain control of the air over Lashio if I want to hold the base. I've got a fair number of good troops there now, but it will be at least another week before my Chinese troops start to arrive. Once they get there I ought to be able to hold the base indefinitely, particularly since it appears that Treespider is splitting his attack to include Myitkyina at the same time. So I'm throwing everything into the fray.

Thus, I moved all of the AVG to Lashio. I don't like to commit the AVG this soon, particularly when I don't have extra P-40Bs or enough P-40Es to upgrade the group. But I want to hurt those air attacks. I've also moved my B-17s to China, and along with the Chinese IL-4c bombers all of them will hit Luang Prabang where the air raids are coming from. The distance is short, so unless the Advanced Weather Gods really hate me, I ought to get a good attack off. For insurance, I've moved Brit Buffalos to act as escorts. I will continue to attack until I either close Luang Prabang or I run out of planes!

In other news, Pontianak withstood another direct attack for no good reason that I can understand. Sometimes it is totally impossible to understand the combat mechanics in this game - maybe there are no "rules"… [&:] The only other Japanese attacks were bombardment attacks at Wuchow, Manila and Davao. I've got all of the Dutch bomber units in the DEI stood down now because they are worn out, so Japanese TFs are sailing pretty much at will.

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 18, 1942 -

The Advanced Weather Gods hate me. They won't give me any good weather until I sacrifice a virgin for them. And they want the virgin to be from Montreal! (Am I ever in trouble!!! [:D] ) More seriously, the advanced weather lock has come into play in a big way now. Eight of the nine map regions were either under heavy rain or rain. Only the Central Pacific region was clear. Never-the-less, the Japanese air attack on Lashio flew from Luang Prabang again; fortunately more of the AVG flew this turn:

Day Air attack on Lashio, at 35, 30

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 20
Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 17
Ki-21 Sally x 47

Allied aircraft
P-40B Tomahawk x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 7 destroyed, 1 damaged
Ki-21 Sally: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Allied aircraft losses
P-40B Tomahawk: 5 destroyed, 7 damaged

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 3
Runway hits 8

Sigint tells me that there are 104 planes at Luang Prabang, which is a level 4 air field. I'm hoping that the extra four planes are keeping the raid sizes down. BTW - Kunming was totally socked in and my retaliation attack didn't fly. (Why am I not surprised?) It's ironic, but Treespider was wondering why things were so quiet. He will have to get used to it; if the Allied planes won't fly, things can't help but being quiet.

Not all my planes sat on the ground. A number of Brit Blenheims in India hit some Japanese troops at Myitkyina. I'm going to try to send them after the Japanese troops at Lashio next turn, but I suspect that they are just out of range for ground attacks. And the strangest thing that happened in the air last turn was that a large group of Zeros did a sweep over Port Moresby. Huh??? What for??? Like I'm going to put some Aussie trainers there and pretend that they are fighters?

BTW - that Japanese TF didn't come in to hit Brisbane after all. I guess that Treespider felt that it just wasn't worth the fuel. BTW - there are still Japanese carrier planes sitting off of the Eastern Solomons. I know because they keep on pestering the US subs that I have I in the area. I'm confounding Treespider by sending lots of US subs to empty US bases that he hasn't yet taken. The real reason that I'm doing it is simply to refuel my subs, but it is getting Treespider a little confused. [;)]

In the ground war, again for no obvious reason, the Dutch at Pontianak held against a shock attack. There must be some sort of "inverse square law" in effect there. Davao, on the other hand, did fall this turn. Treespider also tried a deliberate attack on Lashio this turn, which failed, but it still makes me nervous. I need time, and I can't seem to get it. And in other land news, Wuchow and Manila received artillery attacks again.

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 19, 1942 -

The Advanced Weather Gods finally relented after listening to my explanations, agreed that their original demands were impossible to fulfill, accepted a bottle of CC apiece, and allowed my planes at Kunming to take off:

Day Air attack on Luang Prabang, at 34, 35

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 6

Allied aircraft
Buffalo I x 19
B-17C Fortress x 18
B-17E Fortress x 13
IL-4c x 15

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged
Ki-21 Sally: 3 destroyed
Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-27 Nate: 1 destroyed
Ki-15 Babs: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Buffalo I: 1 destroyed, 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
79 casualties reported

Airbase hits 3
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 25

It wasn't that great of a result, but Treespider pulled back all of his planes afterwards, so I'm happy with the effect. I've also pulled my bombers back for R&R under the assumption that Treespider will now send his air force to whack my Chinese air bases. Otherwise, rain fell most everywhere and allowed tired aircrews on both sides to rest a bit.

The naval crews were busy despite the bad weather. I-17 hit an AP leaving San Francisco. I'm sending the TF back to port and will try again with some new ships. In a tit-for-tat move, O-24 hit a Japanese AP off of Kendari.

In other news, Japanese troops started to land at Hollandia. And once again, for no reason that I can fathom, Zeros did a sweep through the empty skies of Port Moresby. And finally, Pontianak fell. Otherwise things were relatively quiet, ignoring the regular Japanese aerial and artillery bombardments of various Allied bases in the Far East.

Dave Baranyi

[ny59giants]

I would say that the sweeps of PM are in preparations for an invasion coming sooner rather than later. At this time, you can only base Wirraways at PM (I send Wirraways there and sometimes convert a few to Hurricanes) or use the P-40's from PI over there. I usually keep them (P-40's) at Northern Oz to slow down anything there.

KB or part of it off of Brisbane will have to stay out at least 5 hexes to avoid potential Beauforts hitting them with torps. [:D][:D] A CV getting hit there and getting back to Truk may not be worth it.

The other bad thing in China is the supply situation at Chungking takes over one month to get over 20k to be able to start rebuilding my Divisions/Corps. Plus, what am I going to do with all that Oil with no place to send it or use much of it?? [&:]

[ADavidB]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

I would say that the sweeps of PM are in preparations for an invasion coming sooner rather than later. At this time, you can only base Wirraways at PM (I send Wirraways there and sometimes convert a few to Hurricanes) or use the P-40's from PI over there. I usually keep them (P-40's) at Northern Oz to slow down anything there.

KB or part of it off of Brisbane will have to stay out at least 5 hexes to avoid potential Beauforts hitting them with torps. [:D][:D] A CV getting hit there and getting back to Truk may not be worth it.

The other bad thing in China is the supply situation at Chungking takes over one month to get over 20k to be able to start rebuilding my Divisions/Corps. Plus, what am I going to do with all that Oil with no place to send it or use much of it?? [&:]

I guess what surprised me is that Treespider isn't bothering to recon PM, he is just sending Zero sweeps. Why no send the sweeps against my planes in Northern Oz? Oh well, if he wants to keep those Zeros in Rabaul, I'm not going to complain.

I feel that the TF off of Brisbane has gone because there are no Japanese search planes showing up around the region. My guess is that he is sailing elsewhere in the hopes of finding some Allied TFs.

Take care -

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 20, 1942 -

The Advanced Weather Gods finished their bottles and promptly reneged on our agreement. Thus all of the bases along the Indian/Burmese border were socked-in and no planes flew to attack the Japanese troops at Myitkyina, despite having good, experienced, rested and high morale air units with good leaders sitting at different bases. This was particularly bad timing because the Japanese troops at Myitkyina made a deliberate attack the reduced the fortification level to zero although the base held. The Japanese troops at Lashio also made a deliberate attack, and although the odds were 0 to 1 against the Japanese, the Allies suffered more casualties.

So it looks as if my gamble at the border will fail. I have plenty of Chinese troops on the way to both bases, but they won't get there in time to save the day, only to block the Japanese from going further along the trail. And with the Burma Road closed the situation in China will become a write-off soon enough. Therefore, I've pulled my CAP out of both Lashio and Myitkyina even though Treespider has brought his planes back to Luang Prabang. I'm going to order the B-17s to hit the troops at Myitkyina - it's my only hope of staving off the loss of the base.

Treespider made big moves in other places too. He brought 5 Infantry, 3 Armored, 3 Artillery and 2 Engineering units in to shock attack Singapore, and they achieved 1:1 odds and reduced the fortifications by one with that first attack. A deliberate attack at Manila by 4 Infantry, 2 Armored, 3 Artillery and 2 Engineering units only got 0:1 results but the fortification level was also reduced by one. And the troops at Hollandia captured that base.

In other activities, a bunch of Oscars did a sweep against Soerabaja and fared quite well against the Dutch defenders. Manila and Singapore continue to be pounded from the air, and Palembang has been receiving smaller, but still regular attacks too. The one little bit of good news for the Allies was that the AP that was torpedoed off of Kendari yesterday sank today.

Dave Baranyi

[ADavidB]

January 21, 1942 -

I had my first run-in with Combat Replay differences this turn. I ran the Combat Replay on my laptop, made notes as usual, then started to prepare the turn for January 22, 1942. As I was going through the Allied aircraft I noticed that I wasn't seeing all the nice improvements that came in with V1.801. I then remembered that I hadn't upgraded the version of the game in my laptop. So I decided to just run the turn on my desktop which has been upgraded.

I ran the Combat Replay turn again on the desktop pc so that I would have the various reports. Everything was going along as I remembered it from the laptop, and in accordance with my notes, until the final critical item; a Japanese attack on Myitkyina. When I had run the turn the first time on the laptop at V1.80, the Japanese assault was repelled at 0:1 odds and the Japanese had 10 times the casualties of the Allies. But when I ran the turn on the desktop pc with v1.801 installed, The Japanese attackers captured Myitkyina with a 3:1 result! When I looked over the Combat Report that Treespider sent along it showed the same result for the battle.

Hmmm… I definitely want that "seed" number from the earlier version rather than the later version… [;)] This does indicate that the random number system for combat results can cause a huge swing in results. [X(]

I guess that it just wasn't "meant to be". Weather also conspired against me. Once again this turn, none of the Allied bomber groups that were stationed at four different Indian bases flew against the Japanese in Myitkyina. In fact, a look at the overall weather map showed that all nine Game regions had heavy rain or rain, and even those bases that didn't have clouds on screen in India and China showed "thunderstorms" when I checked them with the cursor. This is why I didn't want to play with "advanced weather" in these games. I shouldn't have let myself be talked into it again. Oh well, I'm stuck with it now.

In other news, a DD that went into Brisbane Harbor in search of that Japanese sub that has been sitting there didn't find the sub but did find a mine the hard way. Fortunately, the port at Brisbane continues to get larger and the damaged DD ought to survive. I got a little piece of "balance" in return as one of the Japanese PGs that was torpedoed by a US PT boat in the Philippines a few days ago finally sank. And a US sub missed a Japanese ML in the Solomons. I bet that Treespider is mining the Solomons in case of a US counterattack. That's probably why he has also had a CV or two hanging around within Kate range.

In most other regions, as per my theory about experience overcoming weather, a large number of Japanese air attacks occurred despite the weather. Nells attacked Palembang but caused little damage. Zeros did another sweep of Soerabaja and continued to clear the skies of the Dutch fighters. And there were plenty of attacks on Manila.

Japanese troops continued to land at Wewak, but they didn't attack. I bet that Treespider forgot that there won't be an automatic shock attack. Japanese troops also started to land at Aitape. The only other ground attacks that occurred besides the capture of Myitkyina were artillery attacks on Wuchow, Singapore and Manila.

Dave Baranyi