Dispatches from OKH: Q-Ball (Axis) v. Von Beeanie (SOV)

[2ndACR]

It is going to be horrible. Brace yourself. Get those panzer div to major cities ASAP. Same for your motorized Div. They will survive almost intact and if on a repaired rail line be at almost 100% strength the moment blizzard ends.

Keep repairing rail, never stop. Best thing about falling back, you get closer to your rails and he gets farther from his.

But you got a bunch of units caught in the open for the blizzard start, it is going to hurt bad. Hope you bought some Kleenex to use. The tears are about to flow big time.

[Mynok]

Enjoy the last sight of 6+ factor infantry. You'll never have them again.

[ComradeP]

Have they fixed that yet?

Unfortunately, it's working as designed. Phase 2 leaves dumps in HQ's. If there's a lot of them, sadly a large quantity might get damaged and the HQ will also damage more trucks by moving them.

[ComradeP]

Q-Ball, I've just found out why you can't move units to Riga on turn 1: If Riga's port is damaged, which it will generally be, it won't be able to nullify the naval zone of control (as described in 14.2.3.4) of Kuressare until it has repaired to an effective port level of, I believe, 9.

[Encircled]

Excellent fort levels in the south, but that won't stop horrible attrition losses

I reckon if you time your withdrawals right, then I reckon you could come out of the winter in about as good a shape as you could be, and that would make it a fascinating '42

Super AAR btw

[Q-Ball]

Turn 21, 12/7/41:

MYNOK: I already said my goodbyes. I still have that 17-CV Inf Division, but I'm sure it will be needed at some point.
COMRADE-P: Thanks for that note on Riga. No wonder it doesn't work. By the time it's repaired, it's probably close to RR connection, and your infantry is moving on anyway. Too bad, that would be a neat way to get 18th Army moving quicker.

TURN:
First turn of Blizzard; this one is easy, since the Russians haven't attacked anything yet.

Here is a list of things I have done/am doing in the Winter:

-DEFENSE is LINEBACKER: Linear, with units behind the line to prevent breakthroughs
-Every Town of Size (2) or greater near the front has a unit in it seeking shelter. Some size (1) towns have a unit or HQ. Every CITY near the front is stacked with as many Panzers will fit in shelter.
-I have created 130 Fortification Units so far in the game. I keep them on the board until they build a size 2 or 3 fort, and then disband them. I have disbanded 50 so far; I did 30 just this turn, to provide replacements and new cadres for an additional 10 forts that were created to build trenches 6 hexes back from the line.
-Forts are as deep as I can make them. I don't think it's possible to create more or deeper forts than I have, without halting in September for fort construction only. I suppose I could have parked in the snow, but in the area I attacked in the snow, my forts are deepest. Plus, the space I created I am trading now for 1 turn's worth of piece. That's worth something.
-I have units in Reserve, in Leningrad and Brest, to send to the front in emergency, which is coming
-In terms of RAILROADS, I would like them greater, but the price I paid for getting so far is that my RR network is not complete. The biggest hole is KURSK, which I am working on closing. I did spend time creating a "Beltway" from Vitebsk down through Chernigov along the Dnepr, to connect all my lines. That should help.

The AGN front looks like it might be quiet; I can spare 2-4 more divisions from there in a pinch. I already have 2 moving toward a RR junction, because I think I need them in the south now.

That's all I have for preparations. That being said, I'll probably see a sector of front collapse. My guess is somewhere between Orel and Kharkov, where there are alot of Reds.

[ComradeP]

Q-Ball, remember that, in case you're having trouble with partisans in a certain area, you can more or less completely nullify their effect by forming a line of security regiments on the railroad, with each regiment covering 3 hexes. Partisans can't blow up rail lines that are in combat unit ZOC.

[Mynok]

Won't they just get eaten up by attrition then?

[ComradeP]

What does it matter, they're security regiments. The morale reduction won't really harm much as you're not using them in combat anyway, and a lowered TOE won't necessarily be a problem.

[Mynok]

I assume then that garrison calculations do not consider the actual manpower of the garrison?

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: Mynok

I assume then that garrison calculations do not consider the actual manpower of the garrison?

Garrison calculations DO consider the manpower of the garrison. At least the garrison percentage increases if the garrisons are placed on refit.

[alfonso]

ORIGINAL: Mynok

I assume then that garrison calculations do not consider the actual manpower of the garrison?

Only if you are above 100% of garrison requirements, I think. If you are below 100%, the lower the % of garrison requirements you actually fulfill, the more partisans squads will be created (manual, page 239).

[Powloon]

Not sure if I just got lucky or not but I did manage to move units into Riga (Beta 4) in a test game. I have posted the screen shot in the war room thread AGN opening move. I had bombed the port of Kurassare and inflicted 12% damage. Not sure if there is a minimum requirement for damage

[ComradeP]

I assume then that garrison calculations do not consider the actual manpower of the garrison?

They're based on the manpower of the garrison.

However, reduced TOE security units won't matter too much because:

1) The units that you place in the cities so they don't suffer from the blizzard will be the garrison during the blizzard.

2) You get lots of (minor Axis) security units and LW regiments in early 1942.

By the time your summer offensive starts, the security units could be up to strength again. You could also just have them sit on a rail line for most of the game.

With around 16 combat units, including 5 city garrisons, you can secure a rail line from occupied Poland to Vyazma. With 18 combat units, including 4 city garrisons, you can secure a rail line from the Romanian border to Kharkov.

Not sure if I just got lucky or not but I did manage to move units into Riga (Beta 4) in a test game. I have posted the screen shot in the war room thread AGN opening move. I had bombed the port of Kurassare and inflicted 12% damage. Not sure if there is a minimum requirement for damage

Even 1% damage will reduce the port's ZOC by 1 point, and Kuressare needs all three to block naval movement to Riga. It could be the new "standard" for an opening move in AGN's area: bomb Kuressare, capture Riga and ship infantry in.

[Q-Ball]

Turn 21: 12/11/41, 2nd turn of Blizzard:

Of course, heavy Soviet attacks all along the line, most of them successful. A couple I let him make on purpose (I left a Hungarian Bde that was about to withdraw kind of hanging out on purpose; of course it got wasted!). These attacks effectively pushed me off the first line of trenches in several places. I have about 2-3 more lines to go, and then it will get interesting as we hit open ground, but not in a particularly good way........

I have no idea how I am going to survive this without giving up huge chunks of territory. In several places, the Linebacker defense is starting to fall apart, for lack of viable units. That leaves me with the option of either breaking up 2-CV divisions into Regiments to get some depth, or going Linear. Thankfully, Soviet Mobility is still not very good.

Army Group Center:
I have a backup line running Vyazma/Bryask that will likely come in use. Behind that, I really don't have alot of forts prepared. There is no way I could have dug more, as I spent all the APs I had creating over 130 FORT units as it was. I thought I was digging more than anyone!

RESERVES: I am committing several reserves to these two sectors.
3 Divisions are on the way from 18th Army. 2 more are from OKH Reserve. All are in very good shape (one has a CV of 8!!! They are all at least 4). That should help.

I am transferring a German Mountain Division from the south; that sector I am more comfortable with, because STALINO is a very nice defensive position, and I have 1st Panzer Army stuffed into Kharkov and Donbas; they have not been committed yet.

Deeper reserves include most of 4th Panzer Army, and 1st Panzer Army. They are all still "IN BED". 3 More Panzer Corps are also uncommitted, roughly in Rhzev, Kursk, and Bryansk, though they will be in action shortly I am sure.

I have fortifications 4-6 hexes deep in most places, but that won't be enough.

Overall, I need to shift, because I though the main effort would be in 6th Army's sector, but now it looks like 4th and 9th Armies will bear the brunt.

Army Group North:

Strong attacks are going against 2nd and 16th Armies, between Rhzev and Lake Ilmen. I am less worried about this area, because the terrain is better for me, and in the event of a breakout, his supply situation will be difficult.

North of Lake Ilmen, I don't see a big effort. He is pushing toward Novgorod, against a 4-hex front held by a smaller 18th Army. 18th Army has only that front to defend (plus a garrison at Leningrad), with the FINNS firmly holding the Vokhov. As predicted, he is not touching the FINNS.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
I left a Hungarian Bde that was about to withdraw kind of hanging out on purpose; of course it got wasted!

[:-] Misusing the fixed withdrawal system a tid bit...? Since on other occasions it works against you, why not use it once for you.

Since these blizzards are truly hard, I think you would exhaust you "Feuerwehrdivisionen", your Panzer reserves before turn 25 and would be without backup. I think during the first couple blizzard turns the best thing would be giving 2-3 hexes ground per turn. Ground you can regain if you preserve your forces.

I would look for areas where you could form sufficiently wide balconies, i.e. rough and wooded terrain that you can defend forward, like the Leningrad front (w/ Finns), the Waldai hills, around Kaluga and somewhere towards south (ideally these cover key railroad sections required for a Russian advance into depth). If you give ground in between these strongholds, balconies with long exposed Russian lines should develop. Of course this is going to strain your lines as well. Yet if you keep them falling back faster than he follows, you can thin out your forces there and instead hold the strong forward areas. Once the Russian balconies have achieved substantial depth, 9-12 hex east of the strongholds, and outrun their (railroad) supply, I think your opponent would need to throw everything against the strongpoints. Come February and he well soon find himself exposed between your balconies, and come spring it could be time for some Kursk reenactments with different endings.

Just thinking out loud... Not sure whether this is feasible, but it sounds to me a better economy of forces than trying to defend the whole long line, or falling back with an all-out Sir Robin.

Edit: Aah, rereading the above, wasn't that exactly what the Germans did in 1941/42 winter: Strong points (Feste Plätze) on well defensible terrain, cities, and then mob up the pockets between the balconies in spring? Sounds too familiar...

[MrLongleg]

Very bad to learn that the level 4 forst did not even survive to turn 3 of the Blizzard. I think you did everything right and even got Leningrad. You prepared well and still you are already in trouble in turn 2 of the Blizzard. Are you playing beta-5?

[Q-Ball]

Turn 22, 12/18/41

Only a couple turns into the Blizzard, and it's real bad already. So far I am basically holding, but it's only a matter of time before the front collapses.

I will post a couple shots of important sectors. I have a few Panzer units at the front, but most of them are not...yet. I expect to have to commit them shortly, to plug a hole.

I don't have a shot of the Crimea, but this is a real problem area. I have 4 German Divisions there, plus a Romanian Army, but with only 4 Russian attacks, they are disintegrating. Very bad!

Say goodbye to that Super German Division. What is the CV when it's 99 across the board? 17, and 8 in a Blizzard, for posterity.....

[Q-Ball]

Turn 22, 12/18/41:

Another shot.

In each, you see that I am picking up all those Fort units. Once it's LEVEL 2, no sense leaving them out in the snow.

The bright side? I have 250K Germans in the MANPOWER pool, and over 1200 Rifle Squads. That's alot, isn't it?

[Q-Ball]

Turn 28: 12/25/41

The Soviets Attacked all up and down the line. There were a total of 76 Attacks; 13 of which were HELDS, and the remaining 63 were Successful. The last two turns were like this. That's alot of morale-building on the REDS part! I suppose that's pretty typical for everyone so far?

As a result, the Manpower Strength is down by 33% since November, with many of that disabled; probably 1/2 my troops are gone within the last 4 weeks. The Soviets are all GREEN on supply, so they are showing no problems keeping their guys supplied. The Red Army has gained about 200,000 men since the offensive started, I am down approx. 700,000 so far.

Here are a couple shots of my largest problem areas. I can probably plug these gaps, but I have no illusions of actually holding OREL, KURSK, or STALINO. I might hold BRYANSK by the end of winter, and Smolensk is probably realistic.

Does anyone see anything I am doing wrong? I dug like crazy I thought in late summer/mud, which helped for the first couple turns, but now those forts are gone. Maybe all the FORT units I created caused problems in replacements, etc. Most of them are by now disbanded.

Maybe this is just winter and I have to deal with it, but at the current loss rate I can't see stopping the Reds short of 20 hexes in losses, which is crazy.

Von Beanie is propertly using the Tank Brigades as exploitation, not combat, units. Last turn, I actually routed 3 of them, as single Brigades stuck out as spearheads. It takes a whole Panzer Division at least to do that, though, so that's expensive. I only did that to keep some integrity of the line, and allow us to continue to occupy forts.

PLEASE NOTE: These shots are PRE MOVE, so I will be able to put units in front of the Reds...that will no doubt be PUMMELLED next turn!