Thriumph or Tragedy? (D21)

[TPOO]

ORIGINAL: Jukipo

This is an excellent AAR for the scenario. Very much appreciated. Your use of the Axis rail supply system was masterful and how it was intended to work. I did not think that the Axis could attempt an offensive in Winter 1941 so maybe I have to toughen Elmer up a bit in the next version? The hardest part is trying to get Elmer to do practical things. There will be another update in a few weeks with trying to tweak Elmer's programming to the better.
Good job, Thank you.

Thank you for your compliments. I could attempt winter offensive because of several reasons:

1. I had captured Leningrad. Troops were transferred to AGC.
2. I was ahead of schedule in fall, because 2nd Pz Armee didn't participate the Battle of Kiev.
3. I entrenched a solid defensive line during rasputitza and didn't continue towards Moscow in November.
4. I knew Soviets would attack in december, German high command thought the victory was in sight.

I had all these advantages over historical situation and I still couldn't take Moscow. It was not even near. I have a feeling I can't win this war during 1942. Maybe 1943, we shall see...

I think this scenario is very well balanced. I know the east front quite well. I have played several Barbarossa games WITE, HOI3, Decisive Campaigns: Barbarossa, etc.

One thing to improve comes to my mind. If the rasputitza would be a little less severe, the axis player would have temptation to go on and overextend. I would have continued in october if I had had even a little supply. I had no supply, so it was easy decision to stop and dig in. If I had continued the offensive the result would have been a disaster at the gates of Moscow.

Thank you for a great scenario!

I Agree there needs to be an adjustment to Rasputitza as the Germans did gain some territory during this period especially in the South. It is just hard to make it balanced in TOAW. In TOAW3 in was impossible so a cease fire event had to be used. Fortunately we have a couple of new events to try to simulate mud turns. I will be tweaking this a little in the next version. There was no basis to make a judgement on what would work until the release as there was no real play testing. Now that a few AAR's are up there is some data.

[larryfulkerson]

Decisive battle is going on near Moscow. Situation is chaotic, the winner of this massive
battle is still unclear.

I absolutely love your AAR and I'm amazed and enthralled that you have been able to acomplish
so much so soon. Now I have a target to try to emulate next time I start another game. At
last somebody who knows what he's doing. I'd love to watch one of your combat replay movies
to see how you handle your units. I'm going to pay attention to your gaming career.

[Jukipo]

Turn 63, 1/25/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

The battle near Kaluga is turning to our favour. The forces of Soviet Reserve Front are surrounded again. Our troops attack from all directions and the pocket is divided to three parts.

Meanwhile our forces are attacking against the enemy units enveloped near Volokolamsk.

OKH is moving reserves to our southern flank. 36th Motorized Division arrives by train near Kozelsk from Leningrad front.

Another double turn for me. The picture shows the situation in the beginning of turn 63. Before I have moved anybody.

[Jukipo]

Turn 63, 1/26/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel

We are attacking enveloped units. It’s only a matter of time before all surrounded units are destroyed.

Meanwhile near Podolsk south of Moscow our panzer divisions are assaulting a fortified line. By the end of turn we have captured a 30km wide section of the vital Moscow bunker line.

On the south flank we are concentrating fresh panzer and motorized units near Belyov.

The picture shows the situation near the end of turn 63 after two consecutive axis turns.

[Jukipo]

Turn 64, 1/28/42, AGC

Another initiative shift. The picture shows soviet attacks on turns 63 and 64.

10th Motorized Division had to retreat near Kaluga. The division suffered 50% casualties.

[Jukipo]

Turn 65, 2/1/42, AGC

Operation Jägerschnitzel has reached all its objectives. We managed to surround and destroy several enemy armies. We have excellent positions north and south of Moscow. However, it’s not possible to encircle the city yet. Our troops are tired, and the supply situation is difficult. We are going to stabilize the situation on the Moscow front and refit our panzer divisions. The attack will continue on the southern flank. The next objective is Tula.

[Jukipo]

Situation on 2/1/42 after 65 turns.

Operation Jägerschnitzel is over. Situations is stabilizing on the Moscow front. The attack will continue on the southern flank of AGC. The next objective is Tula.

Other sections of the frontline remain stable. Some enemy attacks and artillery barrages, nothing serious.

Severe weather is hampering our supply flow and slowing rail repair work.

Losses in the first 65 turns: (last 5 turns in parenthesis)

41959 (+4454) Heavy Rifle Squads
4899 (+346) Rifle Squad – Rum
673 (+105) Rifle Squad – Hun
3933 (+408) Rifle Squad – Fin
330 (+39) Rifle Squad - Ita
6014 (+735) Engineer Squads
1110 (+101) Panzers (all types)
1628 (+109) Fighters (all types)
225 (+13) Stukas
1805 (+98) Bombers (all types)

Railroads are on the map in cyan. We have finally repaired a railway link between AGN and Finland. We have a new rail strategy. There are the five lines we are going to repair:

1. Rzhev – Moscow
2. Sukhinichi - Podolsk
3. Kiev – Kursk
4. Kiev – Kharkov
5. Crimea – Stalino

[Nicholas Bell]

I Agree there needs to be an adjustment to Rasputitza as the Germans did gain some territory during this period especially in the South. It is just hard to make it balanced in TOAW. In TOAW3 in was impossible so a cease fire event had to be used. Fortunately we have a couple of new events to try to simulate mud turns.

Rick-
Would it possible to add a variable start date for mud? That would both provide opportunity for the German player to stick his neck out with possible good or bad results.

As I have mentioned elsewhere, the 1941 winter season was not only especially harsh, it was somewhat early also. Contrast that with the winter of 1943 where the mud didn't start until November 15th (The Soviet offensive at Nevel was conducted on dry ground for example) and the snow waited until mid-December. One can only imagine that the Germans would have been in Moscow had 1941 been as mild as 1943. Whether they could have hung on to it is another question.

Having the Rasputitza possibly start between the end of September and the later half of November would be realistic and add a lot of uncertainty.

Jukipo-
Always looking forward to your updates. Pretty exciting for an AAR. Well done!

[TPOO]

ORIGINAL: Nicholas Bell

I Agree there needs to be an adjustment to Rasputitza as the Germans did gain some territory during this period especially in the South. It is just hard to make it balanced in TOAW. In TOAW3 in was impossible so a cease fire event had to be used. Fortunately we have a couple of new events to try to simulate mud turns.

Rick-
Would it possible to add a variable start date for mud? That would both provide opportunity for the German player to stick his neck out with possible good or bad results.

As I have mentioned elsewhere, the 1941 winter season was not only especially harsh, it was somewhat early also. Contrast that with the winter of 1943 where the mud didn't start until November 15th (The Soviet offensive at Nevel was conducted on dry ground for example) and the snow waited until mid-December. One can only imagine that the Germans would have been in Moscow had 1941 been as mild as 1943. Whether they could have hung on to it is another question.

Having the Rasputitza possibly start between the end of September and the later half of November would be realistic and add a lot of uncertainty.

Jukipo-
Always looking forward to your updates. Pretty exciting for an AAR. Well done!

In theory yes it can be done. The problem is we have tried that before and it just does not work out well. If some of the weather events in the variable wind up occurring on the same turn they cancel each other out and screw up all the weather events for the rest of the war. It takes a lot of events just to simulate mud and its effects. This has always been a pain because the game engine simulation of mud is not realistic for Rasputitza. We used to have to do a "Cease Fire" event for the Mud turns.

[Edwire]

I'm curious how the Air war is going?
In my game, after Rasputitza, Soviet Air Force have become really active, sending hundreds of aircraft on each battle, especially near Moscow. Luftwaffe still inflict ~5x losses but I doubt for much longer. I stopped Interdiction as it become too costly.

[Jukipo]

I'm curious how the Air war is going?
In my game, after Rasputitza, Soviet Air Force have become really active, sending hundreds of aircraft on each battle, especially near Moscow. Luftwaffe still inflict ~5x losses but I doubt for much longer. I stopped Interdiction as it become too costly.

I still have slight air superiority 31:22. My air losses have been constant for some time, 20-25 fighters and 20-30 bombers per turn. The enemy is losing more, but their numbers grow every turn.

I have been interdicting during the whole game. I have reduced bomber units range, so thay they always fly under my figher cover. Some time ago I set all levelbomber units to minimize losses. Idea is to harass enemy supply columns near the frontline. I only fly on green or light green supply. When on yellow they rest.

Me-109E/F 898 assigned, 371 on hand (losses 846, replacements 1206)
Ju-87(late) 384 assigned, 518 on hand (losses 226, replacements 804)
He-111 438 assigned, 14 on hand (losses 685, replacements 469)
Ju-88 696 assigned, 25 on hand (losses 900, replacements 871)
Me-110 214 assigned, 18 on hand (losses 384, replacements 402)

I have way too much Stukas on stockpiles, have to use them more aggressively. I have lost a little too much He-111s.

[Jukipo]

Turn 66, 2/4/42, AGC

The enemy makes heavy attacks on our northern flank. We lose Dubna and Dimitrov.
On the southern flank fresh enemy units counterattack near Plavsk. Our Panzer units go defensive.

[Jukipo]

Turn 67, 2/8/42, AGC

Heavy attacks against our bridgehead near Dimitrov.

We gain some ground on the Moscow front.

Our troops encircle several enemy formations near Likhvin.

Railheads (cyan) are not moving forward. Rail repair is very slow during the winter.

[Jukipo]

Turn 68, 2/11/42, AGC

We attack on the north flank and Dubna is recaptured.

On the south flank our troops are very tired and on low supply. The enemy is weak in this sector. If we would only have two fresh divisions, we could take Tula in no time.

[Jukipo]

Turn 69, 2/15/42, AGC

The enemy is attacking on our northern flank. Dubna was lost again. 87th Infantry Division had to withdraw near Dimitrov. 8th PzD counterattacked and the situation was restored.

On the southern flank we managed to destroy all surrounded enemy units.

[Jukipo]

Turn 70, 2/18/42, AGC

Heavy attacks on the northern flank. 8th PzD was defending Dimitrov bridgehead. The enemy is taking heavy losses, but they keep coming like a steamroller.

On the southern flank we attack south from Serpukhov. Our goal is to capture Moscow – Tula railroad. Only 30 km to Tula.

[Jukipo]

Situation on 2/18/42 after 70 turns.

We are advancing slowly towards Tula. Other sectors of the frontline remain stable.

We are losing more rifle squads than we are receiving reinforcements. A lot of this loss is caused by pestilence. Finnish forces are suffering the most. They lose about 45 squads every turn and got only 25 replacements. Total Finnish pestilence losses during the winter will be 1125 squads or 11250 men. I think the whole population would perish in couple of decades at this rate. Russians don’t worry about the cold weather, they are not going to lose any squads. Not very realistic I think.

Severe weather is hampering our supply flow and slowing rail repair work.

Losses in the first 70 turns: (last 5 turns in parenthesis)

45810 (+3851) Heavy Rifle Squads [repl 2155]
5300 (+401) Rifle Squad – Rum [repl 280]
786 (+113) Rifle Squad – Hun [repl 155]
4298 (+365) Rifle Squad – Fin [repl 125]
375 (+45) Rifle Squad – Ita [repl 90]
6700 (+686) Engineer Squads [repl 225]
1171 (+61) Panzers (all types) [repl 125]
1777 (+149) Fighters (all types) [repl 135]
235 (+10) Stuka & Hs-129 [repl 75]
1957 (+152) Bombers (all types) [repl 110]

Railroads are on the map in cyan.

[Jukipo]

Let’s take a look at the units we have been following during this AAR.

8th Panzer Division is defending a bridgehead over Moscow – Volga canal. The division is exhausted after repulsing several enemy attacks during the last week. The unit does have 136 Pz-38t tanks and 17 new Pz-IIIj tanks. The unit has lost half of its rifle squads.

10th Motorized Division is between Kaluga and Tula. The division has participated hard battles during the winter. The unit has lost about a third of its rifle squads.

16th Motorized Division has spent the whole winter in reserve near Kursk. The division is in full supply and in complete readiness. Division has suffered 15% pestilence losses during the winter.

[Jukipo]

Turn 72, 2/25/42, AGC

Ten days on the frontline and 8th PzD had enough. Soviet meatgrinder is rolling near Dimitrov, new divisions arrive by train every day. Our 246th ID is going to counterattack. We must keep this bridgehead!

Meanwhile the enemy is attacking on the Tula sector. Our line holds.

[Jukipo]

Turn 73 3/1/42

First of March, the first day of Spring! We have survived the horrible Russian Winter. Our supply increases. Now we have 23 on rails, it was 18 in winter. Rail repair chance is 12, it was 3 in winter. Pestilence remains 2%.

We have received new Italian and Hungarian divisions.

It’s time to start planning the new fighting season.