Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

6/12/42
 
DEI:  The KB has disappeared from view, probably somewhere in the Makassar Straits. 21st IJA Div. is at Tandjoesomething, across the island from the Allied base at Sibolga.  I'm thinking this may indicate at least some kind of land campaign in eastern Sumatra - at least against Sibolga and then Padang.  If it ties up good divisions for a long time, fine.  The Allied carriers are back on station west of Cocos Island.  Air squadrons are almost all at full strength, but both Ent and York are showing signs of needing time in the yards.  I'll keep them in place for a few days, then probably strip their aircraft, send the places to Sumatra, and let the carriers retire to Colombo to repair.
 
Burma:  Quiet as Japan undoubedly prepares to move on the Allied positions to the west.
 
China:  AVG Squadron 2 ambushed a bunch of Lilys and Anns at Psiangtiang, downing 30.
 
CenPac:  PBYs will recon Mili tomorrow, as a battalion on transports heads that way.  If the island looks vacant, the Allies will land the day after tomorrow.  If not, the troops will retire to Tarawa, where they'll join the rest of this RCT.
 
SoPac:  An enemy combat TF (probably Hiei and friends) should arrive here tonight.  The Allied ships will depart first, with most of 19th RCT ashore now.  The Allies have 510 AV behind four forts, so Japan will have to reinforce to make any headway.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a map of eastern Sumatra on June 13, 1942. The plan:

1. Defense anchored around Palembang, Oosthaven, and Benkolen.
2. CD units are concentrated at Oosthaven since it is the best target for Japan and lacks the defensive bonuses found at the other two hexes.
3. Small reserves located at Prabaemolith and Lahat (300 AV total) can move to any of these bases on short notice.
4. In the event Japan moves over land from western Sumatra, the Allies will employ 4EB to slow it down.
5. The Allies currently have about 600 land-based fighters - this will fluctuate +/- 100 due to scheduled withdrawals and reinforcements en route.
6. Allied carriers stationed nearby can contribute their squadrons to the fight or can attack if there is an opportunity.
7. Allied combat TFs posted nearby meant to disrupt any attempted landings.
8. Cocos Island has 100 AV behind three forts, serving as an outpost protecting the eastern (true map) flank.
9. The Allies are prepping additional land units to commit to eastern Sumatra as political points become availalbe (200+ PP spent yesterday to buy a good Aussie CD unit now on the way to Benkolen). The Allies believed that Japan would be in a position to unilaterally take control of the situation - to isolate and eventually neutralize Sumatra - from the start of the war through late summer. As the summer wears on, however, the Allies begin to grow strong enough to contest the issue, so that Japan will no longer retain unilateral power. That time is now drawing close enough to warrant preparation to reinforce.
10. It is possible that the "bristling Allied defense" of eastern Sumatra has resulted in the enemy's reluctance to accept the challenge...so that the enemy is easily diverted by what seem to be important but more manageable challenges elsewhere. If Japan has truly detached a Mini KB to the Gilberts area, that would be a good example...and a good development for the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

6/13/42
 
DEI:  Once again, patrols report the KB at Georgetown (it was probably there yesterday, too). 

Burma:  The Japanese are advancing in force up the road from Pegu, beleived to include 33rd Div.  The Allies will probably make a stand at Toungoo with about 300 AV, including 27th US Div., relying on the wooded hex to benefit the defense.  The Allies will still have three good Brit and American units to guard against a flanking move.  The airfield at Chittagong is up to level four, which will help the Allies employ B-26 and B-25 bombers in this campaign.

SoPac:  The enemy TF apparently didn't visit Pago Pago, nor was it sighted today.

CenPac:  I-175 scores two more hits, sinking an xAP and badly damaging an xAK at Tarawa.  A small enemy unit reported at Mili is probably strong enough to thwart a snap invasion by an unprepped battalion. The Allies are mulling over the decision to use the Warspite TF to bombard, or to instead scrub the entire thing.

NoPac:  BB Pennsylvania TF to bombard Amchitka.  This will alert Steve that capital ships are in the area again.  He will counter, and eventually the Allies might spring an ambush with Wasp.

Edited because GreyJoy spelling rubbed off on me.

[Cribtop]

I would scrub Mili if the enemy is infantry, such as an SNLF or even an SNLF company. However, you might bombard anyway just to put another scare into Steve. Then if you find out the enemy unit is not a combat force, you could make an informed choice about the invasion.

[madflava13]

Scrub the Mili invasion. No need to stick your neck out that far at this point. Consolidate your gains, fortify, move forward.

[Insano]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I would scrub Mili if the enemy is infantry, such as an SNLF or even an SNLF company. However, you might bombard anyway just to put another scare into Steve. Then if you find out the enemy unit is not a combat force, you could make an informed choice about the invasion.

Hi not sure this bombardment is such a good idea. Remember the static Mili Naval Fortress. The prewar Japanese coastal defenses in this area have a reputation for roughing up any ships that come near up to and including BBs. I looked it up in Tracker to put it in perspective and it is approximately equivalent to bombarding 2 Japanese light cruisers which cannot be sunk (without torpedoes of course). And we're not talking the crappy prewar CLs. I mean the better new CLs.

There is some value to make a harassing bombardment to "put him on notice" but be warned it is almost certain that you will take damage and cause no lasting damage in return.

[Canoerebel]

Helpful input from you guys, so I went back to re-evaluate the situation.  First thing I noticed was a Japanese combat TF of undertermine size and composition approaching the Gilberts from the Solomons.  This TF is at least two days away (I think), and I don't think it can be the Mini KB yet, but if Steve is sending something into a theater where he knows the Allies have airfields and a battleship TF, it must be signficant.  So I'm withdrawing most of my ships, especially the Warspite TF.
 
Also, I agree that Mili is just a bit too far "out there" to effectively defend.  So, I've turned that TF around to instead land a battalion at the dot hex of Makin, which can be built large.  This gives the Allies a perimeter of occupied bases (Nauru, Ocean and Makin, with Tabituea and Abemama to follow eventually).  Tarawa has a garrison of 350 AV with two forts and 32k supply, so it would be very hard for Japan to try to land there.  Also, lots of Sea Bee units are enroute to these islands from San Diego (currently most are just east of Hawaii).

[Cribtop]

Insano is correct. Just checked the fortress and it's not worth a harassment attack.

[CaptBeefheart]

A long time ago I had an invasion really roughed up at Mili by those CDs and ended up withdrawing. That said, some of those big CD islands are perfect to take by paras if he doesn't have much or any infantry. Eben Emael, anyone?

Cheers,
CC

[Canoerebel]

6/14/42
 
DEI:  I just confirmed that I can unload air-transport cargo at Cocos Island, a level one port/two airfield.  This will reduce the risk of the runs into Oosthaven and also speed up delivery.  Since six more squadrons (five fighter, one F-4 Recon) are inbound, this is helpful.  SiInt reports a second IJA division in western Sumatra - 52 at Medan (plus 21 at Tandjoesomething).  Almost certain the Japanese will engage in a major cross-island offensive, at least to move on Padang.
 
Bay of Bengal:  KB still at Georgetown.
 
SoPac:  Tone and Mikuma show up at Pago Pago and don't accomplish anything.  Hiei seems to have retired to repair damage.
 
CenPac:  Netties sink an xAK and damage two xAP at Makin.  US Army battalion safely landed at Makin.  Japanese TF of unknown type, but including at least one DD, just south of Nauru Island.  Most Allied shipping is now well to the east or northeast.  I'm interested in seeing what this might be.

[Cribtop]

Yep, looks like he's coming overland at you, Dan. What about waiting forever until he closes up with you over the yellow roads and then coming in behind him with fresh troops at either Sabang or in Malaya?

[Canoerebel]

6/15/42
 
DEI:  The KB is on the move again, nearing Singapore after departing Georgetown.  If she parks at Singers, we may try to work something out in the way of a strike in a few days.  But she'll likely head into the South China Sea. 
 
CenPac:  No sign of that enemy TF today, but IJN subs are parked at Tarawa, Makin, and in the waters south of Pearl Harbor.  Steve definately didn't like the Allied invasion in the Gilberts.  [:)]
 
NoPac:  BB Pennsylvania bombarded Amchitka, just to make sure Steve knows the Allies have capital ships up here; layin' the groundwork for a possible ambush one o' these days.

[Canoerebel]

6/16/42
 
DEI:  KB has retired to Singapore.  Japanese units are advancing on Batavia, harrassed by Allied bombers.
 
CenPac:  Japanese TF of unknown make, on unknown mission, approaching Baker Island, which is kind of isolated now.  Allied combat ships detailed investigage.  CL Jintsu bombarded Makin Island and, in so doing, learned that a USA RCT is posted there.  More enemy shipping present around Kwajalein, Majuro, etc., so the Allied invasion of Tarawa has stirred up a bee hive.  (Excellent.)

[Canoerebel]

6/17/42
 
CenPac:  I-5, posted south of Pearl Harbor, picks off an AP returning from Tarawa plus damaged-DD Gridley (sorry, Cuttlefish!) on the way home from Pago Pago.  CL Jintsu bombards Tarawa - another recon mission.  The Mini-KB has had time to reach theater now.  Steve is likely to use it forward, especially given the amount of Allied shipping that will soon arrive - a bunch of reinforcing Sea Bee units will reach the area in a week or less.  The Warspite TF is east of Tarawa and CV Wake will arrive at Christmas Island in five days.  Bottom Line:  I have to be careful with Wasp until I know exactly what's out there, but Steve is too late here - Japan can reclaim the Gilberts bases only via a massive amphibious operation that would seriously detract from far more important theaters.

SoPac:  Quiet at Pago Pago right now.

DEI:  Quiet here, too.  Japan should take Batavia in two or three days.  Palembang forts up to 6.67.  Two new fighter squadrons unloaded at Cocos Island can make the jump to Oosthaven.

Burma:  Advancing Japanese army will find USA 27th Div. plus some Burma units at Toungoo.

[paullus99]

Looks like pretty good news all around - at least no crisis on the horizon, right?

If you can get the airfields around Tarawa built up & get some LBA into the area, it would certainly create a very bad situation (backed up by the Wasp) for the mini-KB. Chaz is really missing those light carriers right now.

[Canoerebel]

Right, no immediate crisis on the horizon.
 
I am struggling to evaluate one opportunity/risk:  orchestrating a massive strike vs. the KB.  The KB remains at Singapore, where naval-fighter CAP is halfed due to it being a base hex.  Singapore has a level nine airfield with alot of LBA.
 
By sending in the B-17s on a strike mission vs. the airfield or port, the Allies could probably weaken the CAP to some extent.  If that was followed up by massive strikes that were well escorted, the carriers might take some serious damage.  The risk, though, is that the strikes were poorly escorted so that the Allies might lose oodles of strike aircraft and fighters, thus handicapping the Sumatra defenses.
 
Defending Sumatra is of paramount concern, so I am leaning towards not taking such a gamble.  But I haven't made the final decision yet.
 
One important factor is that the Allies have more than 100 fighters to be withdrawn in about two weeks.  So I have a better shot now than I would on, say, July 5.
 
Decisions, decisions!

[Cribtop]

Sink the Gridley! No other considerations shall have any weight, whatsoever!

[paullus99]

Well, he may be trailing the KB's coat-tails around to try to goad you into just that type of strike (with heavy CAP set, since he doesn't have to worry about escorting strikes) - but, if you have about 100 fighters you're just going to have to withdraw them, why not use them (before you lose them)? You might inflict enough damage on his fighter groups to make him more reluctant down the line to expose himself.

Of course, if you did got for a total attack & got lucky, you may put his one remaining mobile asset either on the bottom or in the repairs yards for quite some time.

As you said, decisions, decisions.....he's making fairly obvious moves right now, which does lend itself to the thought that it is a trap.

[JeffroK]

IMHO,

Try some recon, see what numbers it shows.

Losing even a large number of aircraft is worth decent hits on even 1 CV, damage which forces him to send them back to the HI sees them out of the war for a while at a time he needs them most.

At the least, he may see Singapore as a bad choice of base and move further back from the front lines, to your advantage.

Chez seems to have sent out the KB in fear of an attack on his Rangoon Tfs rather than use them to hit at any counterstrike you may have sent in.

paullus99 senses it may be a trap, but I havent seen anything that would support a briiliant plan, Chez is running from side to side reacting to your moves.

The fun continues!

[whippleofd]

Japan can reclaim the Gilberts bases only via a massive amphibious operation that would seriously detract from far more important theaters.

Given previous history, don't discount this.

Whipple