Shattered Vow

[JohnDillworth]

So in AE there are dot bases that can be built to level 8 and Tinian, the largest airfield in the world in 1945, can only be built to a level 7? Something is not right

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

AE is certainly a defensive nightmare for the Empire, with many more buildable bases, particularly in the DEI. It just can't be defended on the ground.

The only limiting factors are invasion preps and port sizes; it can take awhile with the (0) SPS Port Dot bases. But you certainly don't lack for construction troops, there are PILES available to the Allies anyway.

I haven't settled on a defensive strategy, but attempting to garrison every potential base won't work, and neither will piling everyone onto on local base, because that can just be bypassed.

Holding units for counterattack is a good idea, but even this is limited by preps; chances are, your 2-division counterattacking force won't be prepped for the base you want it to be, unlike the Allies, so they will have a Prep advantage.

A few principles I am working on:

1. Build airbase "clusters" of mutually supporting airbases that are all torpedo capable. A single airbase by itself cannot defend itself, the Allies will just bomb it with 4Es. But bombing 3 at once is much tougher. By keeping some level of air control, you can make landings expensive. Pay attention to AIR HQ ranges to provide torp support to several airbases at once.
2. Use float-transports often; keep units out on the perimeter, but pull fragments at the first sign of trouble. Move those fragments to the 3rd or 4th layer of defense, and re-build them.
3. Move units often. If the Allies see an important target with defenses, they may start to prep for it. Evacuate it after 60 days, and those units just prepped for AIR. The reverse, a vulnerable forward base, garrison it at the last minute. This will also interfere with Allied prep timetable. Forcing the Allies to constantly re-Prep units will waste time on their end. Landing unprepped units against oppossition is NOT a good idea, so the Allies have to do some advanced planning for every landing.

You are right about prepping. The advantage goes to the attacker as they know where they want to go and not to the defender as they have to guess what to prep for. So Japan get the benefit when expanding and then the benefit falls to the Allies as they go over to the offensive. I like your idea about the Japanese keeping it fluid. It can be a big time setback to have to change the prep for an Allied marine division. I suppose that the only real counter for the Allies is to make their plans and then stick to it and ignore the Japanese counter measures as much as possible. And as you say, just take lightly defended surrounding bases and build t them up.

[Canoerebel]

Those are great ideas, Q-Ball.  I think all of them are effective.  In this game, Miller has been garrisoning key forward bases just before I am ready to invade (Sorng, Manikwari, Morotai, and Dadjangas being most notable), forcing me to delay invasions to gather and prep additional units.  It's been effective, though as you can see not enough to halt the Allies.
 
John, I wasn't aware that Tinian can only be built to level seven!  In my two WitP and one AE games I've never invaded Tinian (nor Rabaul, Truk, Guam, Saipan, Peleliu, Soerabaja, or Batavia).  Is it possible, though, that this is fairly accurate, at least in concept?  IE, were there a multitude of islands in the DEI that had the potential to be built into airstrips bigger than Tinian could hold simply due to the relative size of the islands?
 
In my game, with good engineers and plenty of supplies I can usually build a level three or four airbase in a matter of a month or two.  But it took me MUCH longer to build up to level seven or eight - I did so early in the campaign on the string of islands west and north of Darwin.
 
Even where I have interlocking airbases of sizes five and six and seven, it remains possible for my opponent to overwhelm me at any single point by utilizing the KB and land-based air.  He doesn't often try, out of a healthy fear for Allied LBA, but from my experience Allied LBA is essentially useless against ships.  I've used it effectively to shut down airfields, but hitting ships (except in port) is another matter.
 
I'm still too early in the game to gauge whether there is an unfair imbalance in favor of the Allies building multiple big airbases in the DEI.  As the game goes on I'll better know.

[JeffroK]

Going well Dan,

I have no problems with the Allied ability to build bases in the DEI, as you would know keeping up the flow of men & supplies into the middle of the map is a chore in itself. The japanese players will need to work up counters such as those mentioned by Q-ball. as an approach it makes the japanese work harder than simply filling up the Marianas & Marcus Is and not having a thrat to their LoC.

I suppose I am back on my soap box, would creating threats into areas Miller would be fearful of, draw KB (or a part) away from your line of approach, you mention the Kuriles campaign as an aid to your DEI offensive. Get him to run around a bit (maybe into a sub trap), at the moment you are pushing him back onto himself rather than making him manouvre.

Secondly, now his bases are getting stronger as his line contracts, are you able to skip some bases and do some island hopping?? Maybe Sumatra has some dots which can be picked up cheaply as you are doing around Menando etc. leave the bases to traing your Air Groups.

Forthly, trnsfer a B24 sqn into Chungking and run a few raids, just to get him thinking [:D]

[Canoerebel]

3/6/44 to 3/9/44
 
Thailand:  In a surprise that will have major strategic implications, two Allied units crossed the river and took Ayuthia, the key crossroads town just north of Bangkok.  The ramifications:  (1)  the Allies now control the main road to the east leading to Phnom Penh and Saigon; (2) the Allies can move on Bangkok without crossing a river; (3) the Allies can build this airbase large and use it to neutralize Bangkok; and (4) Bangkok is nearly isolated so that Miller will have to decide whether he wants to hold it in a Singapore-like redoubt or withdraw so that his units can fight elsewhere.

I am at a loss to understand why Miller permitted this to happen.  He has 20+ units at Bangkok and should have sent enough to Ayuthia to hold the river crossing.  The two units that were there couldn't do the job against a big Indian division and an armored unit.

The situation in Thailand/Burma remains fluid because there are so many roads and so many stacks or mini-stacks of Japanese units.  I have to guard against being cut-off and isolated while I'm trying to cut-off and isolate the Japanese.  But Allied reinforcements are pouring into the region and making progress in strengthening the key LOCs.  Miller's got to be pullling his hair out.  He's dealing with a cut-off army at Tavoy, he's scrambling to land troops on the Malay peninsula to block the road to the south (he doesn't know I'm not interested in moving that way), he faces the prospect of Bangkok being isolated, and now he has to deal with the possibility that Allied units could move on Cambodia and Vietnam.

DEI: Patrol aircraft reported several Japanese carrier TFs moving into the Celebes Sea from the Sulu Sea via the straights at the northern tip of Borneo. This looks like the real thing. The Allies will: (1) suspend all the little transport missions currently unloading troops at the islands north of Manado and Morotai; (2) get vulnerabe shipping away from forward bases; (3) beef up land-based CAP at the big bases like Ternate, Lobolato, and Morotai; and (4) position the Allied carriers (CVE and CVL) someplace "safe" but close enough to react if this is some kind of banzai charge by the Japanese (I doubt that it is, but "just in case.") I'll probably station the carriers in the vicinity of Kai-eilenden, which is just south of Ceram.

The Allied beachhead at Sidate (a hex south of Manado) will become a level one airfield tomorrow, permitting patrols as far as the eastern reaches of the South China Sea.

Miller: In our WitP game, Miller tried two late invasions once he got tired of the Japanese being on the ropes for many long, dreary months. First he invaded Midway and then Russia. In this game, the Japanese have been sitting there taking it for five months (since the Battle of Morotai), so I wouldn't be surprised if Miller is chomping at the bit to dish out some punishment.

[Canoerebel]

Map of the situation in Thailand follows below.

As noted in a recent post, I had thought the situation in Thailand was settling down. I had two units across the river from Ayuthia and the Japanese had just reinforced the base. Therefore, I detailed one of the units (5223 Provision Tank Brigade) to head east with the ultimate objective of threatening some road junctions in the interior of Thailand.

After 5223 Tanks moved a hex to the east, however, a Japanese unit from Ayuthia had done the same, making it apparent Miller had anticipated this move. Seeing that Miller had at least temporarily weakened his Ayuthia garrison, I ordered 5223 Tanks to reverse course and to join the Indian division in making the river crossing to assault Ayuthia.

I figured the Miller would strongly reinforce Ayuthia from adjacent Bangkok so that the Allied advance would become a bloody repulse. So the success of the Allied assault came as quite a surprise.

[John 3rd]

Your summary regarding Miller's possible 'Hail Mary' could be on.  Lord knows I tried it in our game.  Still think the move to make is against Timor at the base of your salient.  Will have to see...
 

[Canoerebel]

We'll see.
 
As for Timor, that wouldn't bother the Allies a bit as it isn't an integral part of the Allied defense nor is it necessary for future Allied operations.  If Miller wanted to make a Hail Mary that, if successful, might disrupt the Allies, here are a few possibilities:
 
1)  The Allies have occupied a bunch of dot hexes with engineers and, in some cases, very small infantry units.  Imagine if Miller were orchestrate a move in which he invaded four or five or six of these dot hexes simultaneously.  He wouldn't hold them long, but it would force the Allies to organize counterlandings, would slow the building of those bases, and would eliminate some forward patrol/recon/fighter bases.
 
2)  Find out where the Allies are parking the bulk of their carriers and BBs and orchestrate a massive surprise carrier strike.  Miller tried this at Darwin earlier in the game and it cost him 500 aircraft, but if he caught my escort carriers or fast battleships in port he could do some real damage.  The prospect of such an attack sometimes keeps me awake at night and is one reason I have divided my capital ships, keeping only part at Darwin and moving the rest between various ports.
 
3)  Commit to a major operation against a key port that would threaten the Allied LOC from the West Coast to Oz.  A move on Luganville, Noumea, Suva, Pago Pago, Christmas Island, or Palmyra would throw the Allies for a loop at this point.  Some of these have stout garrisons and none are ungarrisoned, but I don't have much in the way of combat ships or carriers in these areas to offer up a fight.
 
Wow, now I've spooked myself thinking about these things.  That's a good thing as I need to give some thought to my weaknesses, so thanks John for bringing this up!

[crsutton]

Yes, as long as the Japanese player has a carrier force you won't get much sleep as you have to worry about all sorts of contingencies.

[Canoerebel]

While waiting the next turn from my opponent, here's an instance of a small but important decision exacerbated by the two-day turn cycle:
 
Allied patrol aircraft sighted multiple Japanese carriers - almost certainly the KB - in the straights off the northern tip of Borneo.  The threat level was high due to the abundance of Allied transports ferrying troops to northern Celebes and the nearby islands including Talaud.  Fearing a major Japanese strike, the Allies withdrew transports and combat ships - including three CVE TFs - to the vicinity of Ceram.  Adjustments were also made to bring more fighter and naval strike aircraft to forward bases while removing 4EB to rear bases.  Then I sent the turn to my opponent.
 
While awaiting my opponent's turn and Upon further reflection, I now suspect that the KB had actually approached the area the turn or several turns before in order to give battle to the Allied transports landing troops on Celebes.  The Allied transports departed so quickly, however, that no battle developed and Miller is withdrawing his ships. 
 
Thus I think I made a miscalculation in pulling all my ships back and, since we are playing two-day turns, this will cost me several days to bring them back forward.  Nevertheless, the time isn't totally wasted because:
 
1)  It's a good idea to shuffle things up every now and then, because good enemies watch for patterns and look for opportunities to exploit them.  Disrupting patterns can disrupt enemy planning.
 
2)  The threat made me carefully scrutinize and improve the Allied defenses.
 
3)  The KB sightings suggest that Miller may be parking his carriers on Borneo's west coast (Brunei?) in order to be able to strike at Allied moves to the north (like Mindanoa) or south (like Kendari or Java).  I'll order a reconnaisance flight over Brunei next turn.
 
This interval has also prompted much more thought towards implementation of a plan through the medium term as follows:
 
1)  The Allies will proceed with the campaign against Manado.  The garrison is 50k, but the airfield is a shambles and supply should be low.  The Allies have already landed 500 AV at adjacent Sidate, but have another 2000 AV ready at Boela, Morotai, and Sorong.  Some troops are already aboard transports.
 
2)  Once Manado is taken, the next step is quite obvious to both Miller and I - Dadjangas on Mindanao.  I believe this is the battle Miller is waiting for to unleash his carriers, combat ships, and kamikazees.  The Allies will give hiim the chance in the form of a Trojan Horse.  The Allies will organize a massive, slow-moving invasion fleet covered by carriers and combat ships.  Only the transports won't be carrying precious troops.  Instead, the transports will move toward Mindanao and then withdraw leaving carriers, combat ships, and LBA to deal with the inevitable (in my estimation) Japanese attack.
 
3)  While that attack is going on, the Allies will land at southern Celebes to take Kolako and Kendari.
 
4)  The transports withdrawn from the feint towards Mindanao will return to port and load the troops for the real invasion of Mindanao.
 
5)  The additional landings needed to hit Manado should take place within ten days.  The mock move and simultaenous landings around Kendari within the month.
 
6)  I will not send the fleet carriers forward.  Every time I do (Morotai and Luganville), the TFs react against orders and bad things happen.  So until the Japanese carrier force is substantially reduced, the Allies will risk only CVE and CVL forward, with fleet carriers remaining further back.
 
That's my plan and I'm sticking to it (until I decide to change it).

[Galahad78]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
3)  While that attack is going on, the Allies will land at southern Celebes to take Kolako and Kendari.

Just my newbiness speaking, but, what's the point in taking Kolaka and Kendari? With your current bases, can't you just bypass them and let them starve to death? Of course I do not have the full comprehension of your map right now, so surely I'm missing some important point.

[Canoerebel]

Galahad, your question is a good one.  My reasons for wanting Kendari even though it's not really on the main axis of the Allied advance:
 
1)  Kendari's strategic position - Built to full size, Kendari's airfield will allow B-29 bombers, which begin arriving next month, to hit key industrial targets that I don't plan on taking.  The most important of these are Soerabaja and Batavia.  Also, taking Kendari should shut down Japanese traffic to and from Balikpan, which I don't want to bomb as I do intend to take the base in order to develop a refueling station.
 
2)  Hammering Japanese troop concentrations - Miller establsihed a strong and deep forward line of defense.  The Allies have already taken many of these bases - Lautem, Sorong, Morotai, Ternate and Ambon in particular - and in doing so really mauled a bunch of Japanese divisions.  This helps reduce Miller's ability to utilize these units in interior positions.
 
3)  Utilizing Prepped troops - it takes a long time for the Allies to prep troops for new targets.  Sometimes you guess right, sometimes not.  Even when you discover that taking a base isn't essential, it may be worth doing in part because you have a force prepped for it.
 
I undertstand the utility of bypassing bastions.  I've done so in this game - Port Moresby and Milne Bay in particular.  I'll also do so in the future.  But during the interval in which Japanese enjoyed serious carrier superiority - a period that lasted from November '43 until about April '44, the Allies needed to advance very carefully under cover of LBA.  This made taking the big bases like Ternate, Manado, and Kendari more attractive.  Had I carrier superiority at this point, I would have bypassed one or more of these bases and instead moved on Mindanao.

[Grotius]

Canoerebel, I was interested to read your comments on two-day turns. On balance, have you liked playing with two-day turns? Certainly your game has moved along fast, but I wonder if you miss the greater control of one-day turns.

[Canoerebel]

Two day turns are
Exciting, swift, challenging
One-day turns no more

[Canoerebel]

3/10/44 and 3/11/44
 
As usual, I am reminded once again that it is a good thing indeed that I do not wager on the outcome of ballgames, political contests, or games of chance.  My deduction that the KB was pulling back to the west side of Borneo was wrong...
 
DEI:  The KB transited the Makassar Straits and currently occupies a hex just west of Makassar.  I am totally flumoxed as to why Miller would choose this route since it is heavily patrolled by Allied aircraft.  Either he wanted me to see him coming (but why I cannot guess) or he HAD to come this way due to some need that's very pressing but not known to me.  My guesses as the what might be going on:
 
1)  This is a mission Miller deems critical to resupply Kendari (or perhaps Makassar, though the latter has never been bombed so I don't think it's nearly as bad off as Kendari might be).  Miller has really ramped up air power at Kendari - 400 LBA - and, purely by coincidence, I've had some LBA targeting the base the past few turns.
 
2)  An invasion of some of the small bases on Flores Island - Ruteng, Maumere, etc.  Most of these are lightly garrisoned and there's not anything reasonable I can do to interfere, but neither would this matter materially.
 
3)  A more serious invasion of a base like Namlea, Ambon, Lautem, or Koepang.  I think this is unlikely, as it's close to plenty of Allied LBA and Miller is very, very conservative in exposing his ships to danger (a precaution driven home when he has attempted desperation missions recently at places like Ambon, Ternate, and Salajar and take heavy losses in the process).  If Miller were getting wildly ambitious, though, I'm not worried about Namlea and Koepang as both are very strongly fortified.  Ambon and Lautem are a little weak, with only about 100 AV each, but I really can't see Miller penetrating that far and taking that big a risk.
 
In expectation that the KB will continue toward Kendari, I've taken the following steps:
 
1)  Ordered a bunch of already-loaded transports to proceed to their various destinations along the "northern frontier" - Sidate (adjacent to Manado), Talaud Island, and the two small island in between Talaud and Manado.  These ships will be moving far to the north of what I deem the danger zone.
 
2)  Maximized strike and escort capability on the bases closest to Kendari - especially Namlea, Ambon, and Oti.  The numbers of aircraft are fairly significant, but probably not sufficient to penetrate massive carrier CAP.
 
3)  Set many 4EB to hit Kendari's airfield.
 
4)  Four 4EB squadrons at Sorong will hit Davao's port facilities - my first strike at that target.  Two fighter squadrons from Talaud Island will fly sweeps (my guess being that the sweep will go in long after the bombers since this is AE).
 
Thailand:  Allied troops are on the move and I'm also monitoring Bangkok and Tavoy to see if Miller gets happy feet and withdraws due to the risk of getting cut off.  That's my fondest hope, anyway.
 
Bay of Bengal:  The Port Blair invasion force is gathering at Colombo and will move out within the week.  No carriers will escort - I'll be relying on surprise and the fact that Port Blair is a bit off to the side, somewhat marginalized, and therefore (I hope) not likely to be strongly guarded.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Grotius
Canoerebel, I was interested to read your comments on two-day turns. On balance, have you liked playing with two-day turns? Certainly your game has moved along fast, but I wonder if you miss the greater control of one-day turns.

Both Miller and I love two-day turns. There are advantages and disadvantages, but to us the former far outweigh the latter. Miller has recently said that he won't play any other way and I'm nearly that strong on two-day turns.

I really don't miss the control of one-day turns. In fact, I'm such a fan of speed that I don't watch the combat replays any more. Over the past eleven months of game time, I've probably watched less than 30 replays, and none within the past two months. This has disadvantages too, naturally, but some advantages.

I am enjoying the game this way very, very much, but I realize it's not for most players.

[JohnDillworth]

As usual, I am reminded once again that it is a good thing indeed that I do not wager on the outcome of ballgames, political contests, or games of chance. My deduction that the KB was pulling back to the west side of Borneo was wrong...

DEI: The KB transited the Makassar Straits and currently occupies a hex just west of Makassar. I am totally flumoxed as to why Miller would choose this route since it is heavily patrolled by Allied aircraft. Either he wanted me to see him coming (but why I cannot guess) or he HAD to come this way due to some need that's very pressing but not known to me. My guesses as the what might be going on:

1) This is a mission Miller deems critical to resupply Kendari (or perhaps Makassar, though the latter has never been bombed so I don't think it's nearly as bad off as Kendari might be). Miller has really ramped up air power at Kendari - 400 LBA - and, purely by coincidence, I've had some LBA targeting the base the past few turns.

2) An invasion of some of the small bases on Flores Island - Ruteng, Maumere, etc. Most of these are lightly garrisoned and there's not anything reasonable I can do to interfere, but neither would this matter materially.

3) A more serious invasion of a base like Namlea, Ambon, Lautem, or Koepang. I think this is unlikely, as it's close to plenty of Allied LBA and Miller is very, very conservative in exposing his ships to danger (a precaution driven home when he has attempted desperation missions recently at places like Ambon, Ternate, and Salajar and take heavy losses in the process). If Miller were getting wildly ambitious, though, I'm not worried about Namlea and Koepang as both are very strongly fortified. Ambon and Lautem are a little weak, with only about 100 AV each, but I really can't see Miller penetrating that far and taking that big a risk.

In expectation that the KB will continue toward Kendari, I've taken the following steps:

1) Ordered a bunch of already-loaded transports to proceed to their various destinations along the "northern frontier" - Sidate (adjacent to Manado), Talaud Island, and the two small island in between Talaud and Manado. These ships will be moving far to the north of what I deem the danger zone.

2) Maximized strike and escort capability on the bases closest to Kendari - especially Namlea, Ambon, and Oti. The numbers of aircraft are fairly significant, but probably not sufficient to penetrate massive carrier CAP.

3) Set many 4EB to hit Kendari's airfield.

4) Four 4EB squadrons at Sorong will hit Davao's port facilities - my first strike at that target. Two fighter squadrons from Talaud Island will fly sweeps (my guess being that the sweep will go in long after the bombers since this is AE).

Thailand: Allied troops are on the move and I'm also monitoring Bangkok and Tavoy to see if Miller gets happy feet and withdraws due to the risk of getting cut off. That's my fondest hope, anyway.

Bay of Bengal: The Port Blair invasion force is gathering at Colombo and will move out within the week. No carriers will escort - I'll be relying on surprise and the fact that Port Blair is a bit off to the side, somewhat marginalized, and therefore (I hope) not likely to be strongly guarded.

Buckling Up!

[PresterJohn001]

I've only played one day turns, but i think if i was to start again, given that turn cycle cannot be changed i would play 2 day turns. Simply because it enables you to progress through the war quicker. (this from a player who has only played Japanese so far). i do watch all the replays and i love the control, but the game is about the war in the pacific so the operations and strategy should be the prime focus.

Great AAR btw

[Canoerebel]

Bullwinkle's post about AKE and AE in another part of the AE forum reminded me that I should disclose to you, gentle readers, my AKE and AE woes in this game.  This is almost too embarrassing to describe, but what the heck:
 
Fairly early in the game, and before I fully understood the complex, important, very nuanced interplay between heavy capital ships and AE/AKE, I embarked on the invasion of the Kuriles.  Fully aware that this battle would be critical, and that the Allies would need to be able to resupply their ships, I brought along my AKE and AE...and they all got sunk.  How could that happen?  Well, go back and read that part of the AAR, but, in short, the combination of the KB and a massive, month-long air/sea battle decimated Allied transports, support craft, and combat ships. 
 
I lost three AKE and three AE in that campaign.  Not until much later did I realize how costly that was/is.
 
At that point, I had one AE left.  I sent her to the DEI, where another Allied offensive was ramping up.  From Darwin, I sent her to Boela, Ceram, to disband into that important port...and a she was sunk by a Japanese sub.
 
That left me with...no AKE or AE on the map.
 
Since then, I have had an AKE arrive.  She actually made it to Boela, too, so I now have some ability to re-arm the big guns on my capital ships.  Before now, I had to send my BBs back to Sydney to re-arm.
 
How have the Allies managed in the interim?  I don't know - they just did.
 
One thing I do know - lesson hard-learned and hard-earned won't be soon be forgotten.
 
 

[paullus99]

With attacking the KB - you only need to get lucky once (good rolls, lower CAP, etc). You can afford to lose the planes, but he can't afford hits on his carriers (or outright sinkings).

How's your sub situation? If you flood the likely areas of advance by his carriers, you might stand a good chance of picking off one or two here and there.