Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[paullus99]

Maybe not so much a trap in the classical sense, but possibly setting up conditions for an exchange in his favor.

[Canoerebel]

6/18/42
 
Today was one of those days when lots of little pieces come together to make a nice picture-puzzle for the Allies.

DEI:  The KB is sighted in the South China Sea, east of Kuantan, on a northeast heading.  It could be bound around Borneo to move into the Indian Ocean from a safe direction, but even that route will put it "out of action" for five days or so.  An IJ stack of 14 units is one hex east of Batavia, moving slowly under daily bombings by B-17s.  Since the Allies have just 59 AV behind three forts at Batavia, this is major overkill.  With a bit of reconnaissance, Steve would have known Batavia was open and it would have fallen weeks ago.  A small IJ army at Sibolga failed to dislodge the small Allied army there.

Burma:  SigInt that 4th Guards Div. is aboard a maru bound for Rangoon.  Good.  That's two divisions that won't be available for fighting in Sumatra.  With the equivalent of two divisions, the Allies can probably wage a good defensive battle against two-plus IJA divisions in Burma.  So the Allies won't retire from the Mandalay sector unless Japan brings enough to overwhelm.  AVG/2 squadron knocked down 21 unescorted Sallys at Toungoo.

SoPac:  Enemy combat ships reported at Suva, but that's far enough away from Pago Pago for the Allied TF carrying 19th RCT to finish unloading.  Pago Pago airfield went to level three.

CenPac:  A USN DD/DMS TF sank a lone xAK at Baker Island.  A snap-IJ invasion of Nauru Island using 65th Naval Guards fails miserably.  Two USA RCTs prepped for Baker Island begin loading at Pearl Harbor.

China:  A big Chinese army (5,800 AV) caught up with two weak units north of Sinyang and should punish them tomorrow.

Summary:  Steve still seems intent on spreading around his strength, pursuing secondary items when, in my opinion, everything should be focused on Sumatra.

[paullus99]

If he's moving reinforcements towards Rangoon by sea, what assets do you have available for an intercept? Your opponent has probably moved additional air units forward, but better to put those troops on the sea floor than have to fight them on land.....

[Canoerebel]

There's nothing to intercept with.  All Allied airfields within range are level one (Port Blair, Tavoy, Toungoo, Mandalay, etc.).  I might see about forming a little CL/DD force at Colombo, thanks to your suggestion, but the Japanese convoy could be 85 hexes away (seriously - it might still be in the South China Sea).

[Grotius]

Hey Canoe, just thought I'd mention that I've been reading your AAR to catch up on this game. From the last few pages, it looks like you're doing quite well! I have subscribed, and I look forward to reading more.

[Canoerebel]

It made my day to see you pop in, Grotius.  Thanks.

[JeffroK]

Summary: Steve still seems intent on spreading around his strength, pursuing secondary items when, in my opinion, everything should be focused on Sumatra

Can one of those more aware of japans capabilities in Scen 2 state that Sumatra is VITAL to japans economy??

Maybe he has worked out, or been told, that the HI can survive on what he can garner from other locations??

Doesnt alter the fact that Sumatra is a knife in the guts of SEAC and a great place for the Allies to start its counteroffensive from.

[Canoerebel]

Jeff, right.  Even if Japan doesn't need Palembang's oil, it can't afford a massive Allied complex of bases (IE, unsinkable aircraft carriers) adjacent to Singapore and Batavia. Steve has to neutralize Sumatra and would have the unilateral ability to do so (meaning:  the Allies couldn't effecitvely contest a well-orchestrated and massive operation) until the point is reached where the Allies have the strength to reinforce the position and then begin to move forward.  That point is hard to identify, because it can move (if, for instance, one side or the other loses a big carrier battle).  But I think Japan generally loses it's "unilateral ability" sometime in the autumn of 1942.  In this game, with the losses Japan has suffered and with the dispersion of major IJ assets all over the map, I think that date might be as early as August 1942.

[Cribtop]

Dan,

Consider that once Steve finds out how weakly held Batavia is, and then takes it, he will free up a good amount of combat power. Even with everything he's done to disperse himself, there really is no other target for those forces than Sumatra (I guess he could go for NW Oz but I seriously doubt it). He may try a two pronged advance - overland on Sumatra plus loading at Tjilatjap or Soerabaja to hit a base on the southern coast rather than Palembang or Oosthaven. This possibility is one way to explain why KB is sailing around the north coast of Borneo (although of course there are others, including "Steve has settled on a land campaign in Sumatra and is sending KB to the Pacific").

Think what you can do to use that against him. Options could include hitting him with LBA and dismounted CV groups as he loads up, waiting for him to re-load before landing a nuisance invasion at Tjilatjap to reconquer lots of Java and thus buy time while we re-re-loads and then re-invades, etc.

[JeffroK]

I, after millions of days playing the AI, would try to starve you out from bases at Batavia and Western Sumatra. Maybe take out Christmas Island as well.

This way he might be able to lock you up on Eastern Sumatra without allocating a massive ground force.

Cover your rear bases, and wait for the offensive (which might never happen)

[Canoerebel]

6/19/42
 
Another good day for the Allies.
 
DEI:  The KB has vanished from sight and Japan still hasn't arrived at Batavia.  Oosthaven forts went to level six, and a big Aussie CD unit is just five or six days out.  By the end of the month, Japan should hold Batavia and Merak, which means the noose will have tightened considerably, but that's the way things were supposed to happen.
 
Burma:  Two IJA regiments shock attacked at Toungoo, which was a mistake since 27th Div. had reinforced the post (Steve didn't bombard first to see what was there).  Those two regiments were roughed up and will require reinforcements.
 
China:  The Chinese stack caught and mauled a fresh IJA division (23rd), which unaccountably was posted in no-man's-land.  The subsequent attack destroyed 300 squads (the adjusted AV dropped from 464 to 75 during the attack).  That's seven IJA divisions defeated in China since April.
 
NoPac:  Japan continues to pay attention to Para and Onne, bombing daily, but no imminent signs of counter-invasion.
 
CenPac:  IJ TF reported to consist of CL and DD is north of Tarawa on an easterly heading.  I know the Jintsu TF is out here, but I have to be careful lest I bump into the carrier force detached from Singapore a few weeks ago.  Japan reinforced its landing at Nauru Island - the amphibious troops were totally disrupted in the landing, but enough are ashore now to pose a real threat to the battalion of 32nd Div. (just 20 AV) ashore there.  I have lots of inbound TFs carrying Sea Bees to several bases plus 5th Marine CD to Tarawa, so I'm trying to gauge how serious the threat is of enemy raiders and carriers.  The Warspite TF is retiring to Christmas Island to refuel and will be back on station in four days or so.  Wasp is four days east of Christmas.  Steve is showing much interest in this area, suggesting that the Allies would be better served reinforcing at-risk bases (Makin, Nauru, Ocean) if possbile rather than trying to expand.  A meeting engagement is going to develop here.
 
SoPac:  A week ago, I tinkered with the bombardment orders, standing down the big arty units and ordering just the two USA RCT's to bombard.  For some reason, this seriously ramped up the effectiveness of the bombardments.  This turn alone, for example, Japan lost five infantry squads with others damaged (a total of 350 casualties).  I'm pretty sure the activity in the Gilberts is going to put a halt to Japanese hopes at Pago Pago, but we'll see.

[Canoerebel]

P.S. In reply to one post above.  Palembang produces its own supply (I think 1,000 points per day).  That and the fact that the Allies have brought in supply should make it very difficult for Japan to starve out the garrison - at least within a time frame that would prevent the Allies from reinforcing and resupplying in strength when the time comes (the Allies should be able to do that sometime in the autumn if Japan hasn't attended to Sumatra by then).
 

[Cribtop]

Interesting re the bombardment. The consensus seems to be that arty firing in defense uses the pre-nerf routines while offensive bombardments use the new routines. Thus, many posters posit (another big word for you [:D]) that the best use for arty is in defense. Is it possible that your big guns, ordered NOT to bombard, participate in counter-counter battery fire at a more effective rate? Hard to express this thought, but hopefully you get the idea.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Burma:  Two IJA regiments shock attacked at Toungoo, which was a mistake since 27th Div. had reinforced the post (Steve didn't bombard first to see what was there).  Those two regiments were roughed up and will require reinforcements.

China:  The Chinese stack caught and mauled a fresh IJA division (23rd), which unaccountably was posted in no-man's-land.  The subsequent attack destroyed 300 squads (the adjusted AV dropped from 464 to 75 during the attack).  That's seven IJA divisions defeated in China since April.

For the love of...why? Just throwing troops away needlessly. It's really disappointing to see this still happening at this stage of the game. Enjoyed the game CR and well done, but I'm not sure how much more of this I can watch. [:D]

[paullus99]

Hmmmm.....it'll be very interesting to see where the KB reappears - too bad you haven't had the chance to get a crack at his airgroups yet. If you can force him to make another diversion of force, it will open up some offensive-type opportunities (perhaps a port raid on Singapore, if he positions lots of shipping there).

Of course, this also gives you to opportunity to do some serious base building on the periphery in support of your Sumatran position - get some decent sized airfields in range & start interdicting his SLOCs to Rangoon. I know I mentioned this before, but his troops are much easier to sink than fight (or force them to take the land - long way around route to their destinations).

Too bad you don't have another small periphery operation you could pull (or perhaps you do) that would open up a fresh wound and force him to divert additional assets. I'm sure PP are probably the main limitation for you right now, but you've done a masterful job thus far. Now we just need to get some additional attrition going.

[Canoerebel]

It's "optimal" for the Allies to "unleash" new operations periodically to keep Japan off balance.  It is also important for the Allies to be prepared to unleash one right after Japan moves on eastern Sumatra in a big way.  Such a synchronous move would really mess with Steve's mind.
 
Conceiving, planning, and implementing successful operations is, of course, a major challenge.  The Allies have come up with quite a few, but so much time has elapsed that these have mostly been implemented.  At the moment, the Allies don't really have anything new or fresh - most of what I'm planning is building upon the successes in various theaters.  While this may not be as effective as a new operation might be in disorienting the enemy, it is still better than nothing, especially since Steve keeps reacting very strongly to Allied moves - NoPac, Pago Pago, Burma and now the Gilberts are all proof of this proposition.  Every time the Allies strike, Japan scrambles in major ways to deal with it.
 
At the moment, the Allies have a number of "follow up" operations ongoing - the defense of Pago Pago, reinforcing newly won bases in the Giblerts, invading Baker Island, and ongoing efforts to harrass the enemy in Burma and China.
 
But what about an operation to be implemented right on the heels of the Japanese move on Sumatra?  As stated above, I'm in a bit of a lull where I'm not ready to do anything at the moment.  Political points are my major problem.  Just about anywhere I go now, I would need thousands of points to buy the necessary units. 
 
The one thing I can probably put together the most expeditiously would be a major operation to reinforce and resupply Para and Onnekotan.  Doing so would open up Para's airfield (level three at the moment) and allow me to strategic-bomb Shikuka.  That would get Steve's full attention!  But even pulling that together will take many weeks.
 
Most of the other options suffer from serious flaws at the moment:  (1) Malaya - the enemy is aroused here now and present in big numbers; (2) Java/Timor - big enemy forces close by; (3) reinforce NW Oz, okay, but that doesn't really throw Steve off balance; (4) reinforce Port Moresby or occupy and buildt Milne Bay; okay, but that doesn't throw him off either; (5) operations in the Pacific - Wake and/or Marcus might be available, but I think Steve is attending to these now that he has problems in the Gilberts.
 
The more I think about it, the more it seems like a massive operation in NoPac might be the most expeditious way of throwing a monkey wrench into Japan's machinery.

[Ulua]

I liked your tutorial, CR, so I decided to hop along to this AAR. I must admit, however, that my interest in this particular engagement is waning. Things seems incredibly vanilla here, things just don't seem to be happening (historically or otherwise). Perhaps you aren't covering Chez's more valiant efforts? I don't know, as I'm not reading his AAR.

It is 6/42. Has the KB participated in any decisive engagements since PH? Has Chez taken some strategic initiative that is making you sit at rapt attention? From following your AAR, it seems that India is empty, some token Pacific islands have been subverted by Japan, and a half-hearted invasion of the Aleutians occured. The KB is wandering around the Pacific split up, and a huge party is forming in Palembang but the guests of honor has not showed.

In your 1/42 reports after no decisive commitment had occured (PI, DEI, SEAC, China) I was hoping that a Hawaiian assault was being plotted. While it probably would not help enough for an AV (as initiative was rapidly being lost) it would have made for an interesting write-up. Now, here we are, with what appears to be neither side wanting to seize the initiative. Maybe I am encouraging you to be a little more reckless. Start planning that major assault on Vietnam, convert that major defensive build-up to some sort of attack force.

Nemo had mentioned that knife fight. It appears your opponent has made enough errors for you to confidently go for the killing blow, and not to be so concerned about repreccusions from failures. Frankly, I'd love to see an AAR from you and Nemo. Perhaps Nemo would get over his fears of Opsec breeches knowing that you will proactively ignore such attempts, and post from his side as well.

Anyway, this is all MHO, just wanting to draw out a little more insight in this thread.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Ulua.  Your grasp of what has happend is accurate - well, mostly - and is commendably detailed.
 
I can understand why many readers would find the game rather stale.  None of the really sexy things have happened that would grip a reader - no "Japan backing the Allies to the brink of disaster" (as happened in my game with Q-Ball and in GreyJoy's game with rader); no massive carrier battle; and as of this moment no titanic meeting engagement.
 
But from my perspective as an Allied player in Scenario Two at the still-early date of June 19, 1942, I can't imagine a more exciting situation.  The Allies have gone WAY out on a limb to establish a massive outpost on Sumatra.  Losing this outpost would absolutely crush the Allies (I can't imagine losing 4,500 AV and all the aircraft and ships that would go along with it).  Japan definately has the might and wherewithal to isolate and destroy the Allied outpost.  Therefore, the Allies will be forced to commit everything to defend the outpost (including capital ships and carriers, or at least carrier aircraft).  And, added to this, the Allies have been aggressively fighting in China, Burma, the Kuriles, and the Gilberts.
 
For heaven's sake, this is June 1942 in Scenario Two!  The Allies ought to be back on their heals with Japan rampaging forward.  So, while you might not think the Allies have pushed back and closed for a knife fight, I think that's exactly what they've done.

[Miller]

I doubt even the best Jap player could evict you from Sumatra now without taking almost catastrophic losses in the process. With PDU off the vast majority of his IJAAF units will still be flying Oscars and crappy light bombers who will not make a dent on any of your built up bases, so there is no way he could starve you out either.

To top it all the KB seems to be on an endless voyage of pointless fuel burning for nothing in return.

How about trying to force a Jap capitulation by 1/1/43?

[Canoerebel]

If the Allies still hold eastern Sumatra in strength on January 1, 1943, the game will be over even if Steve is still playing.