Shattered Vow

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Bullwinkle's post about AKE and AE in another part of the AE forum reminded me that I should disclose to you, gentle readers, my AKE and AE woes in this game.  This is almost too embarrassing to describe, but what the heck:

Fairly early in the game, and before I fully understood the complex, important, very nuanced interplay between heavy capital ships and AE/AKE, I embarked on the invasion of the Kuriles.  Fully aware that this battle would be critical, and that the Allies would need to be able to resupply their ships, I brought along my AKE and AE...and they all got sunk.  How could that happen?  Well, go back and read that part of the AAR, but, in short, the combination of the KB and a massive, month-long air/sea battle decimated Allied transports, support craft, and combat ships. 

I lost three AKE and three AE in that campaign.  Not until much later did I realize how costly that was/is.

At that point, I had one AE left.  I sent her to the DEI, where another Allied offensive was ramping up.  From Darwin, I sent her to Boela, Ceram, to disband into that important port...and a she was sunk by a Japanese sub.

That left me with...no AKE or AE on the map.

Since then, I have had an AKE arrive.  She actually made it to Boela, too, so I now have some ability to re-arm the big guns on my capital ships.  Before now, I had to send my BBs back to Sydney to re-arm.

How have the Allies managed in the interim?  I don't know - they just did.

One thing I do know - lesson hard-learned and hard-earned won't be soon be forgotten.

'Tis a far, far better thing to have had AE's and to have lost . . .

Uh, no. Sorry.

Yep, they are massively critical, and I did not truly understand that until 1944, when the re-load distances get waaaay long. I have three bugged ones sitting in Saipan, where I really need BBs to work.

In my next game, every blasted hull that can convert to an AKE is getting converted. I was too lackadaisical about it when they were in the conversion window, and now it's too late.

[Canoerebel]

I feel your pain.  You feel my pain.
 
I knew how AKE and AE were used, which is why I took them along for the Kuriles invasion, but I didn't know two other critical things:
 
1)  how rare they are (rare ships for the Allies?  A novel concept indeed.)
2)  how few are ports big enough to handle re-arming of battleships - who would've thunk there isn't a single port in the eastern DEI that can handle this - so that my ships have to retire all the way to Sydney.  But at least Sydney is closer than Aukland or Pearl Harbor.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I feel your pain.  You feel my pain.

I knew how AKE and AE were used, which is why I took them along for the Kuriles invasion, but I didn't know two other critical things:

1)  how rare they are (rare ships for the Allies?  A novel concept indeed.)
2)  how few are ports big enough to handle re-arming of battleships - who would've thunk there isn't a single port in the eastern DEI that can handle this - so that my ships have to retire all the way to Sydney.  But at least Sydney is closer than Aukland or Pearl Harbor.

It is devilish of the devs to not let Darwin go to Port 7. Hook a brother up already.[:)]

They are the preeminent support ship for the Allies. In WITP I worried about my AVs. In AE, the AE is the queen, far more important than ASs or ADs, and even a bit more than ARs. I'd trade ten AGs right now for a working AE.

[Canoerebel]

3/12/44 and 3/13/44
 
Japanese Carriers:  The KB, or a reasonable facsimile thereof, is parked just west of Makassar.  So, over six days, these CV TFs have steamed from the straits north of Borneo past Balikpan and down to Makassar...in plain view yet doing little over the past two days.  What's Miller doing?  It doesn't appear that he's going to Kendari, and utilizing the KB - especially in plain sight - to cover a supply or transport mission to Makassar would be huge overkill.  So Miller seems to be marching around banging on drums and kettles to make as much noise as possible, but I don't yet know why.
 
DEI:  Meanwhile, a big air battle was fought over Kendari, with the Japanese getting the best of a-2-a (an 80 to 50 advantage) while the Allies destroyed 50 aircraft on the ground and closed the field.  But recon now shows 200 aircraft at Manado, which we shut down long ago and which shows 100% damage.  So, Allied 4EB will divide attention between Kendari and Manado over the next two-day turn.  The Allies will be sending in several reinforcement convoys to a number of forward bases (Sidate, Talaud Island, etc.) so there will be exposure to air attack.  The Allied 4EB port strike at Davao damaged and sank four or five ACM.
 
One Reason I'm Leary of Island Hopping:  The sudden appearance of 200 Japanese aircraft at Manado is one reason I'm so leary of bypassing major Japanese bases in the DEI.  It's too easy to reopen the bases if the Allies halt bombing briefly to focus on other locales.  Once I "liquidate" Manado and Kendari, the Allies should have a safe LOC in the region and I can move forward.
 
Burma:  No changes here as the Allies continue to move and jockey for position.  My hope is to either isolate Bangkok or create such concern that Miller elects to withdraw.  The same holds true for Tavoy, although that base is much less important than Bangkok.

[AcePylut]

What's Miller doing?  It doesn't appear that he's going to Kendari, and utilizing the KB - especially in plain sight - to cover a supply or transport mission to Makassar would be huge overkill.  So Miller seems to be marching around banging on drums and kettles to make as much noise as possible, but I don't yet know why.

 
He's finding out how many CV's you have in the area.
 
If you had CV parity or an advantage, I think you'd go after his seemingly "alone and unsupported" CV's.    That you don't, could tell him that you don't have parity.
 
Or, I would think he's got some transport ships a couple days behind that are heading somewhere... but he doesn't have a lot so he won't risk them suicidally.  So he throws the KB there to "do battle" with anything you might throw at him... and if he "wins" this hypothetical battle, the transports are probably going to be safe.  If you were to "win", his xports might still be far enough back to be diverted safely.

However, that is all pure speculation.

[Canoerebel]

3/14/44 and 3/15/44
 
Acepylut:  You could be right - our last carrier battle was five months ago (!) and he undoubtedly suspects enough time has passed for the damaged carriers to repair and return.  (Actually, newly arrived Intrepid is at Darwin; formerly damaged Bunker Hill and Saratoga just passed Pago Pago on the way back to the DEI; and Constellation is still undergoing repairs at Alameda).
 
DEI:  I've seen only the report, not the file, so I don't know exactly where the KB is, but nothing major happened during this two-day interval.  Allied LBA did tag a few AKL near Salajar Island (south of Kendari) and I assume the KB remains in position somewhere in the vicinity as some Allied aircraft tangled with CAP put up by Zuikaku and other fleet carriers.  Elsewhere, another huge air battle, this one over Manado, with the Allies re-closing this base (I think).  Finally, the Allied reinforcment convoys went into Sidate, Talaud Island, etc. without incident, which is a great relief as each one was pretty significant (especially the one to Talaud as it carries a base force).
 
Burma:  The 5223 Tank unit moved east of Bangkok and holds the key road junction two hexes east.  Bangkok is pretty much islolated now (there is an escape route along the coast to the south), so I think Miller has to decide whether to stay and fight, turning the campaign into a siege, or whether to evacuate.  I frankly don't know what he'll choose to do.

[Canoerebel]

To update about the KB after looking at the file and issuing orders for the next two-day turn:
 
The KB remains a hex or two west of Makassar and some transports appear to be approaching Kendari (looks like a re-supply mission by the Japanese).  From the "conduct" of the KB over the past eight days, and the current configuration of forces, it appears to me that Miller is simply fearful that Allied LBA can clobber anything that approaches Kendari.  That's not the case (mainly because Allied LBA is piss-poor against ships and because some of those little island bases I have built up in proximity to Kendari don't have base forces yet).
 
As for why Miller chose to very "publicly" transit the Makassar Straits for this mission, my best guess is that he feels the need to re-supply Kendari is urgent and that this was the shortest route.

[witpqs]

Seems like a decent sub target.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

But recon now shows 200 aircraft at Manado, which we shut down long ago and which shows 100% damage.  So, Allied 4EB will divide attention between Kendari and Manado over the next two-day turn.  The Allies will be sending in several reinforcement convoys to a number of forward bases (Sidate, Talaud Island, etc.) so there will be exposure to air attack.  The Allied 4EB port strike at Davao damaged and sank four or five ACM.

One Reason I'm Leary of Island Hopping:  The sudden appearance of 200 Japanese aircraft at Manado is one reason I'm so leary of bypassing major Japanese bases in the DEI.  It's too easy to reopen the bases if the Allies halt bombing briefly to focus on other locales.  Once I "liquidate" Manado and Kendari, the Allies should have a safe LOC in the region and I can move forward.

Canoerebel,

Long time, no post. Seems as though things have been moving along nicely for you, particularly in Burma / Thailand. Keep up the pressure.

Seems as though you haven't seen a large number of kamikazes in your game. Miller is probably converting large numbers of daitai / chutai to the cause, as these can be a very effective weapon, particularly when they're applied in large numbers to a small group of targets. If I wanted to employ them in theatre, I'd think about putting about 200 of them in someplace to mess up a landing / resupply mission.

My two bits: I'll lay you dollars to donuts that the majority of those 200 aircraft on Menado are kamikazes. Miller may be trying a combined antishipping mission with his aircraft carriers and the LBA kamikazes at Menado.

In some ways, I think a failure to launch all kamikaze aircraft from a damaged / overstacked a/f may be a good thing. The unit(s) can be withdrawn, reconstituted with recently trained pilots and rebased forward easier if they aren't 100% destroyed by destruction of a full launch.

Why doncha blow up the runway there for a few days before moving some ships anywhere within 10 hexes?

[Canoerebel]

3/16/44 and 3/17/44

A heck of alot going on in the DEI - with potential for a big battle if Miller wants it badly enough...and he may.

Chickenboy: You could be right - I haven't seen much of kamikazees thus far, but Miller is banking them you can bet. The big Allied raids on the Manado and Kendari airfields have only destroyed fighters on the ground (Franks and Tojos mainly).

KB:  The KB suddenly moved forward, close to Kendari.  The hex occupied by the KB shows only combat ships and carriers - no transports - so I'm wondering if this is an offensive group rather than an escort group.  As mentioned previously, the Allies have alot of ships in the northern DEI running reinforcements to the forward bases, plus five or six CA/CL TFs (defensive) and three CVE TFs totaling 12 CVE.  Miller expressed utter frustration at the fact that he had hundreds of strike aircraft within range of juicy targets "but only 5% flew."  (He did manage to sink a handful of transports here and there).  Now the KB is in a position where it can block the path to safety (Darwin) that my CVE TFs would have to take.  So, is Miller frustrated enough - and anxious enough to strike -that he will commit the KB into a region protected by lots of big Allied airbases?  We shall see.

Redoubt Morotai:  On the assumption that Miller will leap forward to give battle, the Allies will concentrate all important ships (lots and lots of transports, all combat TFs and the CVE) at Morotai.  In addition to the 100+ fightres on the CVE, Morotai (a level six airbase) has 180 fighters.  Three other big airfields at no more than two hexes can contribute another 200+ fighters.  I have no doubt that the KB can do some big damage if Miller concentrates on Morotai with his carriers and LBA, but he'll lose a truly staggering number of aircraft.

Other Measures:  Some other important ships will seek refuge out of harm's way "just in case."  These include TFs with BBs New Jersey, Iowa, and North Carolina and CV Intrepid.  These ships are dispersed at Darwin or Boela and will head east for now.

Sidate/Manado:  The Allies have 1450 AV at Sidate now - 1400 are 100% prepped for Manado and 50 AV are prepped for Sidate.  41st Infantry Division, 100% prepped for Manado, is aboard transports at Morotai waiting for the coast to clear and praying that the heavens don't fall in around them over the next two days.  Additional Manado-prepped troops - probably another 750 to 1000 AV - are at Boela, Sorong, and Morotai.  I could be in a position to move on Manado in a week or so if the KB clears the area without doing major damage or is itself heavily damaged.

Enemy airfields within range of Morotai:  I believe Manado and Kendari are closed.  Leowek (on Celebes between these two) is a level four base.  There's another Celebes base a bit further away and both Davao and Babeldaob are within range to contribute LBA.

So, batten down the hatches.  The KB may remain around Kendari (and thus out of harm's way) or may move toward Ceram or the Moluccas to give battle in which case alot of fighting will take place.

Thailand/Burma:  Lots of troops on the move for both sides.  To this point no indication that the Japanese intend to pull out of either Tavoy or Bangkok.  I think the the bulk of the Allied troops should be in position to move into both hexes in about ten days.

China:  Miller is moving and probing in an effort to find weaknesses.  IJ paratroops took Ankang (near Sian) temporarily, but lost it when the bulk of a Chinese army showed up.  Another small Japanese contingent is nosing around Liuchow but will soon find itself in the midst of a sizeable Chinese army. The Allies have intentions of moving on Nanning.  Currently that city is garrisoned by six IJA units that have easily held off an equal number of Chinese.  But some 3000 AV of Chinese units headed that way from Hengyang and Changsha.  I would like to bust through Nanning to threaten Vietnam from the north while the British and Indians and Africans are threating from the west.

[Canoerebel]

3/18/44 and 3/19/44
 
The KB did close to engage the Allied "redoubt" at Morotai.  I'm not sure yet who won - probably the Japanese tactically and perhaps the Allies strategically.  Both sides probably have some grumbling to do, but overall I'd say this helps the Allies go forward due to significant attrition to IJN aircraft.
 
Most of the fighting took place on the 18th, with two major IJN raids and two decent sized Allied raids.  The two Japanese first:
 
1)  IJN No. 1 = 114 Zero, 104 Jill and 144 Judy vs. 370 fighters of all sorts, but these are mostly good aircraft with high-experience pilots.  I like the odds, but definately not the results:  The Japanese lose 49 aircraft, the Allies 3, and the following ships take damage:  CVE Casablanca 1TT; CVE Anzio 7 B and 1 TT; CVE Liscome Bay 3 B, 1 TT; CVE Manila Bay 2 B; DD DeHaven 2 B; DD Porter 3 B.
 
2)  IJN No. 2 = 45 Z, 81 Jill, 69 Judy vs. 152 fighters.  The Japanese lose 61, the Allies 3.  CVE Manila Bay takes another B and a kamikaze hit; CA Canberra 1 k; xAP Fiona 2 B; CVE Kalinin Bay 1 B; xAP Van Rees 2 B; CVE Barnes 1 B; CL Honolulu 1 TT; LSD Gunstan Hall 1 TT; x AP Tairea 2 B; CA Northhampton 1 TT; AKA Virgo 1 B.
 
Now for the Allied attacks:
 
1)  Allies No. 1 - 15 fighters and 34 TBF vs. 67 Zero.  Allies lose 19 aircraft; no damage inflicted.
 
2)  Allies No. 2 - 55 F, 29 SBD, 30 TBF vs. 41 Z.  Allies lose 17 and put 1 TT into CVL Mizuho.
 
There were many smaller Japanese attacks during these two days - including quite a few by LBA.  Total aircraft losses as I count them:
 
Japanese - 74 Zero, 71 Jill, 63 Judy, 34 Frances, 10 George.
Allies - 63 fighters, 13 TBF, 9 SBD.
 
I believe six Allied CVE were damaged, with perhaps three sunk (I haven't opened the file yet to see).  The Allies also lost an LST (to a sub), maybe a DD, and probably a few transports.  The Japanese lost a sub (to an Allied combat TF at Morotai).
 
Allied LBA also hammered airfields and Kendari and Manado and destroyed quite a few aircraft - mainly Tojo and Frank - on the ground.
 
While the losses and damage to Allied ships is marked and noted, these are fairly expendable.  The damage to IJN air is probably more critical.  So I think perhaps this battle leaves the Allies in better shape to go forward.  Barring further significant blows, I don't think this disrupts Allied plans at all and probably makes the next contested invasion a bit easier due to attrition to Japanese naval air.
 
What happens next:  I have a bunch of damaged ships at Morotai and most of the Japanese navy in close proxmity.  Will the KB hang around?  Can it attack again?  If so I would expect Miller to send in combat ships.  So, do I pull my damaged ships out or leave them at Redoubt Morotai along with as much protection as I can muster?  This will be my biggest decision when I work on this next turn.  My inclination is to bring in fresh fighters, reorganize undamaged combat ships into protecting TFs, and disband damaged ships into port.  I may send some ships (undamaged CVE?) speeding southeast toward another haven - Boela perhaps.  But that will depend on where the KB is now and where it can move.
 
Thailand:  Several days ago, 5223 Provisional Tanks occupied the critical road-junction two hexes east of Bangkok.  Miller sent a unit that way - turns out to be 1/3rd of a Royal Thai division.  This isn't enough to dislodge the Tanks, so Miller will have to reinforce if he wants to reopen this road.  The Allies, in turn, may do the same as several new units are about to reach Ayuthia, the city just north of Bangkok.
 
P.S.  The performance of Allied air in the 2nd Battle of Morotai left much to be desired.  307 top-notch fighers vs. 114 Zero and 250 strike aircraft and the Japanese only lose 49 planes and hit seven warships?  This is par for the course from what I've seen in AE.  I remain suspicious that good CAP underperforms, but there are so many other factors that may enter into the results that I can't be absolutely positive.  Also, Allied strike aircraft continue to perform absolutely horribly.
 

[Canoerebel]

Here's Miller's take on the battle: "I'm not sure if the last turn was good or bad for me, looks like I sank 4 CVEs and a bunch of other stuff at a cost 400 a/c..."
 
Looks like this battle is hard to evaluate, but if the Japanese lost 400 aircraft to take, in essence, four CVE, then strategically this was an Allied victory, and tactically perhaps a marginal Japanese victory.

[Q-Ball]

RE: Aircraft performance, my experience is different with both CAP and Allied strike; both are pretty effective. (though, you can get strikes through CAP, unlike WITP, which I think is an improvement). Is your PILOT QUALITY up to snuff? I know you had some issues in that regard earlier. Front-line pilots should be around 70 in primary skill, or you're going to suffer substandard results.

Unlike RL, the Japanese can suffer alot of aircraft losses before it has a long-term impact. If Miller is thorough on his pilot management, he can absorb alot of losses.

[Canoerebel]

Many of my LBA fighter squadrons on the front lines have Experience in the high 60s now - 68, 69, etc.  I'm sure their a-2-a skills are also very high since they've been on the front lines constantly engaged in battles of one sort or another for many months.
 
As for the Japanese, Miller has suffered so many losses over the past year that I think his IJN pilot quality is fairly low now.  He can replace the frames and pilots, and they can still overwhelm the Allies at a single point by sheer weight of numbers (as this battle proves), but I do think he's hurting a bit.

[Canoerebel]

Upon review of the file and issuing orders for the next two-day turn, some additional thoughts about the Second Battle of Morotai:
 
1)  Definately a tactical Japanese victory - the Japanese certainly outperformed the Allies and dished out a decent amount of damage to ships.
2)  Definately a strategic Allied victory - it appears that the Japanese lost a total of about 600 aircraft over two days.  The Allies lost three CVE with a fourth suffering moderately heavy damage.  The Allies also lost one DD and a handful of smaller transports.  Most of the other damage - for instance to the three or four cruisers hit - was light.  Also, while losing the three CVE, the Allies had four more arriving at Darwin.
 
What's next:
1)  I'm pretty sure the KB will retire (either to the Philippines or Brunei). 
2)  The two remaining Allied CVE TFs at Morotai will skedaddle to Boela along with one combat TF and some fast transport TFs.
3)  Transports at Sorong are loading troops 100% prepped for Manado.  41st Division (also 100% prepped) remains aboard transports at Morotai.  As soon as the KB vacates the area, the Allies will resume the shuttle of troops to Sidate.  Within ten days I expect the Allies army at Sidate to move on Manado.
4)  Once the lift to Sidate/Manado is complete, all transports will be assigned to pick up the troops prepped for Dadjangas and Davao (both on Mindanao).  Most of these troops are at Ternate and Darwin.
5)  CVs Illustrious and Intrepid are at Darwin.  Saratoga and Bunker Hill will arrive within a week.  Hornet will arrive in a few weeks.
6)  BBs North Carolina, Indiana, Iowa and New Jersey are at Darwin.
7)  The Allies are almost ready to move into the Philippines.
8)  The Port Blair invasion force will leave Trincomalee in three or four days.
 

[Jim D Burns]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
1)  I'm pretty sure the KB will retire (either to the Philippines or Brunei). 

I think it’s a mistake for you to assume your opponent is hurting after this fight. If he’s been diligent about training his pilots all game, by now he has a very large reserve of decent pilots and he can easily out produce the US in planes, so there won’t be a problem replacing these losses for him.

Until you can overwhelm him and cause such massive air losses as to critically reduce his trained reserves pool in a sustain nature for several months straight, I think it’s safe to assume he will be ready to repeat this attack again very soon.

Don’t get caught up in thinking Japan in game has the same problems Japan did historically. They don’t, this is a balanced game, not an historically accurate one, thus Japan will be able to keep hitting you very hard well in to 1945.

What this battle does give you, is an idea of what to expect from his current alpha strike capability. You need to make your plans for trying to decisively hurt him with this level of expected force to deal with in the future. Once you can overcome it, then you can start turning on the heat and trying to attrit his pilot pools.

But for now it looks like Japan is still just as powerful as the US in any one area on the map that it decides to commit itself. And unlike history, he’ll have plenty of pilots and planes to replace his losses with now, so he can probably keep these kinds of attacks up for the rest of the game unless you can manage to sink his CVs.

Jim

[Canoerebel]

3/20/44 and 3/21/44
 
Jim:  Thanks for giving me your thoughts, though the news seems grim to this Allied player.  Okay, it sounds like the one way that the Allies can truly whittle away Japanese strength is to sink ships, because they don't come back.  This turn saw some marked progress in that regard, though both sides took plenty of lumps:
 
2nd Battle of Morotai (continued):  This time Miller committed his combat ships - in the form of multiple CA/CL/DD TFs - targeting Allied shipping at Morotai and Sorong.  The Allies, in turn, had about four or five good CA/DD or CL/DD TFs guarding Morotai, but Sorong was open.  The Japanese ships just kept coming in a suicidal frenzy.  The Japanese took massive losses but nevertheless managed to penetrate the combat ship screen to rough up a number of transports and smaller ships.
 
Japanese Damage:  As best I can detemine, the Japanese lost:  CA two (Myoko and Hagura), CL two (Jintsu and Yakagi), DD eight; with heavy damage to:  CA two (Nachi, which may go down, and Kumano), CL two, and DD eight.
 
Allied Combat Ships Damaged:  The Allies lost:  CA one (Houston), CL one (Nashville), DD three, DE two, PF one; with heavy damage to:  CL four; DD seven; DMS one.
 
Transports and Smaller Ships:  The Allies suffered heavy damage to 7 APA, two LSD (one went under), three LCI (two went under), one AMC (sunk), one AM (sunk), two AP (one sunk), one SC, two xAP, eleven xAK.  I haven't check the file, yet, so a few of these damaged ships may have sunk.
 
Impact:  The Japanese were already short on combat ships, especially cruisers, so this should set Miller back (and this jibes with his email comments).  The Allies took plenty of hits, but nothing critical.  Just as with the big IJN carrier raid battle of the two previous days, this leaves the Allies in better position to move forward.  In both cases, the battles were bloody and tough and the Japanese performed pretty well.  Moreover, this show's Miller resolve (perhaps bordering on desperation) to strike before the odds grow worse.  Considering that the Allies just went up against the entire KB with essentially 12 CVE and a bunch of CL and DD, the Allies did pretty darn well.  In a matter of ten days or two weeks, the Allies will be bringing fleet carriers, battleships, and CAs forward as they move on the Philippines.

[FatR]

I don't think the repeated loss of 300-400 pilots in one turn is easily replaceable. In fact, if I'm not forgetting anything, including the attack on Darwin in the summer of 1943, KB was committed only 3 times. This still seems a bit much, as IJN simply doesn't have enough "training" restricted units in Home Islands. However, if Japanese naval aviation is not pressured into heavy day-to-day fighting, Miller certainly can use some or many of his frontline squadrons as de-facto training units, drawing pilots for carriers from them. Of course, having KB mostly intact helps him greatly to concentrate masses of planes against key points.

[Galahad78]

Ouch!! Those 7 damaged APAs hurt, will you be able to put them online back quickly?

[JohnDillworth]

Canoerebel,
Were the kamikazes that attacked the CVE's coming form the KB or were they land based? Also, once you get your CV's and BB's in the near future, would you be comfortable going up aginst the KB? I just don't see how Miller can continue to replace that many carrier bases attack aircraft and remain a threat. I agree these look like 2 srategic wins. Can't spek for miller but I think if he had it to do over he would not accept the losses he took for the damage he inflicted. I think he might have been counting on putting a few CV's in dry dock for a while.