Shattered Vow

[Canoerebel]

A map of the situation in the DEI as of April 1, 1944:

[Canoerebel]

4/1/44 and 4/2/44
 
The final turn of the day brings a solid "thud" and "oof":
 
Bay of Bengal:  BB Valiant stumbled across a sub and took two TT (thud); later in the day she took ten bombs and one kamikazee strike from the Mini-KB.  To date, that's the 11th or 12th BB to take damage or destruction from a sub.
 
Tavoy:  The probing deliberate attack suggests that the Allies don't have enough at hand to take this base (oof).  I won't reinforce, since Tavoy is far less important than the situation around Bangkok and further east.  I will be satisfied with holding the 18 IJA units in place.
 
DEI:  As Allied transports continue to load, and as combat ships and carriers make their way to the scene from Darwin, nothing untoward occurs over this two-day turn - no nasty sub attacks nor pounces by aircraft or ships.  That's a very good thing as the Allies look at invading Dadjangas in about five to seven days.
 
 

[Canoerebel]

Well, shoot!  I just finished going through orders for my next turn, a process that was seriously complicated by the disappearance of the KB from Manila.  I have a vast network of patrol aircraft at advanced positions, but no sign of those carriers.  Perhaps Miller moved them further back out of sight...or perhaps he's moving them forward to pounce.  I don't know, and since I'm about to invade Mindanao it would have been really, really nice to see them still parked at Manila.

So, my carriers ended the turn on either side of Ceram - fleet to the west, escort to the east.  I assume Miller's patrols sighted them.  He'll suspect something is up given the vast amount of shipping around the Moluccas, Ceram, and Celebes.  It would have been GREAT to have my Kendari invasion ready to go, for it would be possible to get in and get out before the KB could have shown up.  But the Kendari troops are at Darwin and Timor while most of my transports are at Ceram and the Moluccas.  Shoot!

So, to make the best of things, the Allies will orchestrate a feint towards Kendari.  All carriers and some mock transport TFs will rendezvous a few hexes west of Ceram.  Lots of B-24 and B-17 will target Kendari (nothing new) and Makassar (new) with some B-25 and SBD will join in the Kendari strikes (also new).  While Miller may not be completely fooled, he won't be sure exactly what's going on.

Perhaps my patrol aircraft will pick up the KB again...but either way the Dadjangas invasion fleet leaves Morotai in three days.  At that point,the carriers will steam north and take position just south of Talaud Island.  CAP over the beaches will be provided by LBA from Talaud and vicinity.

P.S.  Despite hits from three TT, one kamikazee, and ten bombs, BB Valiant has only moderate damage.  She's caught in no-man's-land, however.  It will take her two days to reach Akyab.  I have lots of LRCAP from that base plus Prome and Bassien, so the Mini-KB isn't as big a concern as combat ships and subs.  Miller knows Valiant is heading for Akyab and he'll do his best to pick her off.

[Canoerebel]

A map of the mock invasion of Kendari follows.

Why do this? Well, my Mindanao invasion fleet (currently at Morotai and Ternate) need two more days to load, and I don't want to bring my carriers that far foward as it will surely incite and equal and opposite reaction from the enemy, whose carriers were recently at Manila.

So this feint toward Kendari is intended to sew at least some uncertainty among the enemy high command. He may not be convinced of a move toward Kendari, but neither is he likely to conclude that a move on Mindanoe takes place in three days.

At least that's my hope. I have about thirty minutes before I actually finish this turn, so if anybody spots a terrible miscalculation, please let me know within 29 minutes or forever hold your peace.

[Canoerebel]

4/3/44 and 4/4/44
 
Mock Invasion of Kendari:  Zoiks, Scoob!  Japanese subs took six shots each at Saratoga and Hornet and missed.  So this mock invasion surely has Miller's full, complete, entire attention.  Undoubtedly he's got blood lust now and I wouldn't be surprised to see him swing into action.

Operation Chambersburg (Invasion of Dadjangas):  The invasion fleet is schedule to depart Morotai tonight (I don't have the turn file from Miller yet, so I'm in the planning stages at the moment).  Assuming that there aren't any reports about the KB, it's still going to be tough to pull the trigger, for if Miller sends the KB south towards Kendari from Manila or vicinity it will pass close to Mindanao.  My ships will steam right into the path of the hurricane.  I'm also very, very, very worried about my fleet carrier TFs reacting against orders.  This always, ALWAYS happens and never, NEVER turns out well.  But other than those "minor" concerns, I feel pretty good about the invasion.  The beaches are pretty close to Morotai and I do have four or five good airbases to provide LRCAP.  So unless the turn file reveals something really bad, the invasion shall proceed.

Bay of Bengal:  Miller committed his combat TF to try to intercept BB Valiant, but he withdrew the Mini-KB.  There were no interceptions and the chances of Valiant surviving went up considerably.

Thailand:  Small Allied and IJA armies are engaged at Nikon-Richitsimu (spelling, hah!), an important crossroads town east of Bangkok.  The attacks dropped forts from three to one, so the base should fall in a few days.  Any Allied successes east of Bangkok should increase the appearance that this key city is isolated.

[JohnDillworth]

Japanese subs took six shots each at Saratoga and Hornet and missed

Conoerbel,
You should have a clear abundance of DD's DE's, assorted anti ship craft and good commanders available. Are you flooding sub infested areas with regular ASW patrols? There should be enough ports/tenders to have constant patrols sweeping these areas.

[Canoerebel]

I find ASW patrols pretty ineffective, though I do have several in these waters.  Combat TFs with good ASW ships are more effective.  During the same turn in which subs took shots at my carriers, Allied anti-sub efforts did this:
 
(1)  Submarine attack near Boela  at 79,112
 
Japanese Ships
      SS I-37, hits 27, and is sunk

Allied Ships
      DD Knapp
      DD Marshall

(2) ASW attack near Kofiau  at 79,107
 
Japanese Ships
      SS I-40, hits 13
 
(3) Sub attack near Mangole  at 75,106
 
Japanese Ships
      SS I-180, hits 5
 
Allied Ships
      CV Saratoga
      BB Washington
      DD Jenkins
      DD Taylor
      DD Schroeder
      DD Saufley
      DD Porterfield
 
Allied Ships
      SC-984
      DE Foreman      DD Wickes
      DD Wadleigh
      DD Uhlmann
      DD Picking
 
(4) Sub attack near Mangole  at 75,106
 
Japanese Ships
      SS I-8, hits 6,  on fire,  heavy damage
 
Allied Ships
      CV Hornet
      DD Isherwood
      DD Wickes
      DD Wadleigh
      DD Uhlmann
      DD Picking
 
During the two-day turn, an IJN sub did put a TT into an AO in the Torres Straits, and another hammered an AKL way over near Tarawa.

[Canoerebel]

I just opened the turn file.  Patrols sighted the KB NE of Mindanao on a SW heading - meaning any ships that move toward Dadjangas move right into the teeth of the KB.
 
So, my preliminary thought is to freeze everything in port at Morotai (we've done this before, but the defenses are even stronger now).
 
The Allied carriers will stay around Ceram/Kendari covering a couple of small amphibous TFs carrying engineers to the dot hex bases just off the coast from Kendari.

[Smeulders]

It looks like Japanese subs may still get lucky late in the game, but the cost seems very high. More than likely at least 2 SS sunk in a single turn isn't really a pace that can be kept up.

[Canoerebel]

Very tough decisions to make this turn.  Based upon the location and course of the KB, and reconnaissance reports that Davao, Cabayan, and Babledoab aifields are flush with aircraft, it appears to me that Miller is anticipating a move on Mindanao.  I'm not quite ready to sail into a hurricane, so the here's a summary of orders issues:
 
1)  The Allies will continue to "threat" to Kendari.  Two small amphibious TFs will land a base force and Lark Battalion at Boeton Island, just off the coast.  The CVE TF will provide close-range support.  The fleet carriers will stand a bit further off - 80 miles south of Ceram's western tip.
 
2)  A BUNCH of loaded transports will flee Morotai and Sidate and head south for two reasons:  (1) hopefully to get them out of harm's way and (2) to further the appearance of a move on Kendari.
 
3)  Some transports and a bunch of combat ships, including BBs New Jersey and North Carolina, will remain at Morotai under what I can best characterize as mass fighter protection.  My best hope is that the KB will close and lose alot of aircraft.
 
4)  Subs and PT squadrons assigned to likely waters.
 
5)  If the KB remains in the Philipppines area an invasion of Kendari would be much less risky than one of Mindanao.  I'll have to make a decision shortly whether to return the transports to Darwin, unload, and re-load the Kendari troops.
 
6)  The Chinese will shock attack at Nanning tomorrow.
 
7)  BB Valiant will make Akyab tonight.  She looks fine.
 
Wow, what a game Miller is putting up. Great fun.

[Q-Ball]

Indeed, Miller's initial push was a bit lackluster, but he is really throwing the kitchen sink at you in the DEI. He's more aggressive on defense than attack it seems

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I've always felt that Miller's particularly adept at tactical and operational defense.

[JohnDillworth]

Kendari

If he does not want to fight for Kendari then it seems he has you figured out. Perhaps if you had a Borneo or Java option he might have something else to think about.

[Canoerebel]

He has 50k troops at Kendari, so he's prepared to fight.  He just can't be in both places at one time and the Allies don't have enough transports to handle two separate invasion simultaneously.  So if Miller guesses the target right a bloody altercation ensues (as was the invasion of Morotai); if he guesses wrong or guesses late then the Allied landings are relatively unopposed (as at Sorong, Ambon, Ternate, and Sidate).
 
 

[Canoerebel]

4/5/44 and 4/6/44
 
The drama continues...
 
Mindanao:  The KB took station off the east coast of Mindanao, the perfect position to combine with LBA to hammer any invasion fleet heading for Dadjangas.  Two things:  (1) Clearly, Miller was fully prepared and (2) I'm glad I pulled back.  Miller didn't come close enough to engage my ships and aircraft at Morotai, but a Japanese sub was destroyed there after sinking a PF.
 
Allied Moves:  The Allied carriers, combat ships, and transports will move just NW of Ceram's western tip to see what develops - if Miller withdaws I will send the Manado reinforcements that I had to hastily withdraw.  I am also sending some empty transports to Boela to pick up two Aussie brigades 100% prepped for Kolako, a base across the peninsula from Kendari.  If the Allies postpone Mindanao as now appears likely, I'll use the carriers to cover landings at Kolako (assuming the KB remains near the PI) while the bulk of the transports retire to Darwin, unload the Mindanao troops, and re-load with Kendari troops.  Sheesh!
 
Reinforcements:  Three more carriers - Franklin, Constellation, and Yorktown will arrive in theater in no more than three weeks.  At that point I think the Allies would accept a confrontation with the KB as long as it was relatively close to a friendly port and under a decent amount of LRCAP.  Dadjangas falls within that definition.
 
Thailand:  Japanese forts at Nikon-Richitsimu (spelling, hah!) fell to zero, so this base may change hands tomorrow. 
 
China:  3000+ Chinese AV couldn't dislodge six IJA units at Nanning.  I may try once more in a few days, but I think the Chinese offensive is about to end.

[Canoerebel]

4/7/44 and 4/8/44
 
Kamikazee Nest:  Further recon and patrol flights confirm that Miller had established a strong network of airfields on and supporting Mindanao.  That and the KB created the potential for quite a trap had my transports and combat ships approached Dadjangas.  In addition to the KB, which probably had 300 to 400 aircraft, Babeldaob has 350, Davao 100, Cagayan 460, and Butuan 425.  Add to that other nearby airfields (Jolo, for instance, is a level five) and I might have faced more than 1500 aircraft. 
 
So, What's a Man to Do?  I really want to move on Dadjangas and Cotobato because both are lightly garrisoned and make good airfields.  But the Allies cannot risk taking on 1,500 or 2,00 aircraft at this point.  After looking at the map, planning, reconsidering, squirming, fretting, and looking at the map again, I've decided to implement the following plan:
 
1)  The Manado reinforcements (currently aboard transports in the Ternate/Namlea areas) will proceed to Sidate and unload.  The KB seemingly withdrew, so  I should have a window.  I've beefed up the CAP at Sidate.  The Allies have a 2.25 to 1 advantage at Manado right now (and will try the second probing deliberate attack tonight).  These reinforcements should bring the margin to 3:1.
 
2)  The Dadjangas invasion stands down.  Most of the troops will disembark at Boela and await an all-clear at another date.  When empty, the transports will return to Darwin and load the Kendari troops (the equivalent of four divisions).
 
3)  Transports at Boela are loading two Aussie brigades 100% prepped for Kolaka, a good base with big potential across the peninsula from Kendari.  Patrols show the base vacant.  These transports should finish loading in two days and, under cover of the Allied carrier fleet, will proceed to Kolaka.  Allied 4EB has closed the airfield at Kendari, and are working on Makassar.  Absent the KB, opposition from the Japanese air forces shouldn't be very strong.  The Kendari troops will unload at Kolaka (rather than engaging in an amphibious landing at Kendari).
 
4)  The Special Services unit at Lautem has been prepping for Watampone, a small base with big potential just up the peninsula from Makassar.  Additional ground troops at Darwin have begun prepping.  If the base remains vacant, the Special Services unit will drop concurrently with the landings at Kolako.  Then transports will take in the reinforcements.
 
5)  The Allies have several good units prepping for some of the small bases between Timor and Java - Mataram, Roti, and Waingapu in particular.  The Allies will move on these bases as soon as transports are available.
 
6)  A few bases in the middle Celebes are vacant or weakly held - especially Garantolo, but also Polapo and Donggala - so the Allies will prepare to seize these - Garantolo first.
 
Should the KB remain in the Philippines, these operations shouldn't encounter too much opposition.  This will give the Allies bases to engage in strategic bombing against Soerabaja and Batavia and to prevent traffic in and out of Balakpan and Tarakan (bases that I don't wish to bomb because I want to use their resources). 
 
If Mindanao remains a Kamikazee Trap, the Allies will concentrate on Celebes and Borneo over the next month and then reevaluate options.  If Miller switches his forces to Java/South Borneo, the Allies will again look to Dadjangas (by then the transports currently tied up in reinforcing Manado, plus those that will ferry troops to Kolako, will be available).
 
P.S.  A Japanese sub was destroyed after she put two TT into CVE Kitkun Bay near Namlea.  The carrier suffered only light/moderate damage and will remain with the fleet until I get close enough to a port I'm comfortable sending her to.

[Canoerebel]

4/9/44 and 4/10/44
 
Manado:  The second Allied deliberate attack comes off at 1:2 (same as the March 30 attack), but this one succeeds in dropping forts from five to four, which is a major development.  Casualties were roughly equal and the landing of the reserves at Sidate weren't molested.  When the reserves reach Manado, I think progress will come much more quickly.  I think the Allies will take Manado in two weeks or less.
 
Japanese Subs:  Picked off yet another IJN sub near Namlea.  I believe the Japanese have lost ten or fifteen subs in the last two weeks.  Miller, via email, said: "My sub force has all but been wiped out, they served me well."  I can only hope the former is true; I know the latter is accurate.
 
Allied Carriers:  Moved south of Ceram without incident, taking position to cover pending landings at Kolako (assuming the KB doesn't head this way).  CV Franklin is nearing Townsville, and CVs Constellation and Yorktown (plus BB Prince of Wales) just departed Christmas Island and should arrive at Townsville in ten days.
 
Burma/Thailand:  The lines have temporarily around Tavoy and Bangkok.  At Nikon-Richitsimu (spelling, hah!), Allied attacks dropped forts from three to zero, but reinforcements arrived.  Nearly all availalbe and decent-sized Allied units are now on or near the front lines, so I don't have much more ability to utilize maneuver.  There is one Indian division at Rangoon, but it's only half strength and I want to leave it there to recover and grow.

[Q-Ball]

"Hit 'em where they ain't" or where KB ain't more specifically. Mindanao is more valuable than those other targets, but moving toward Java is better than doing nothing. He has to respond to that, losing Java means losing Palembang

[Canoerebel]

Thanks, Q-Ball.  That's the plan.
 
The thought of facing 1,500 - maybe 2,000![X(] - Japanese aircraft is daunting.  If I brought forward and maximized my LBA LRCAP, I might be able to put 400 fighters over the beach.  Honestly, I think that would mean perhaps 200 Japanese aircraft downed in wave one, with hundreds getting through to smash everything in sight, not to mention carriers and combat ships close enough to be included.  In subsequent waves the Japanese might lose hundred of aircraft; maybe as many as 1,000.  But the Allies would lose scores, possibly hundreds, of ships.  I can't afford that.
 
The ability of the IJ player to easily replace pilots at will, and the porousness of CAP, makes AE a much different game than WitP (and much different than the real war).

[Smeulders]

How overstacked are those fields ? Bombing them might mean a lot of planes destroyed on the ground, though the CAP over them is probably daunting as well.