Forlorn Hopes: The Japanese Respond

[John 3rd]

According to Tracker I have about 40 days of oil in Japan.  This will jump with the arrival of 200,000 resources and 400,000 oil that is due to arrive within the next week.  I will still be able to use Balikpapan and Tarakan as well as Soerabaja but it will become much more difficult.  Good news is that I have spread my industry out enough that Manchuria will continue to produce and so that helps a bit. 

NEWS FLASH--Looks like the American Navy may be returning to Wake.  Ships departed Iwo Jima a few days ago and they started to angle SE as of the 24th.  Either Wake or back to Midway...should know within 1-2 days.

[ny59giants]

Sir John was nice enough to send me a recent turn. Here are some observations from his "semi" retired economics minister.

There are supply shortages all over the Empire, especially in Manchuria and Japan itself. Most bases are below 10k and only a limited few are over 20k. Not Good!! Possible causes besides the Allied strategic bombing campaign are almost ALLthe aircraft and engine factories have the Repair set for YES!!

John - you MUST go through all your bases in Japan and make a decision on which factories can have the repair function turned off. As it is now places like Gumma and Tokyo will get above 10k and use the 1k to repair a factory that the AI chooses!! [X(] For each base, no more than 2 Repair "YES" can be left on.

To the Japanese Fanboys - I don't know how to deal with this, but John needs suggestions on how to deal with a growing supply shortage.

Soerabaja - You need to rotate through your Sentai/Daitai and stand them down to allow aircraft to repair. You have some set on 90% CAP with almost all planes damaged. They will repair faster if they are stood down.

Looking at Indonesia, Dan can take the whole area because there are no more supplies there....YIKES!! You cannot base your defense on the AV and fort levels on the base window. Too many LCUs have little to no supplies.

If you have the subs available, I would rescue the 13 BF at Dutch Harbor. It can be rebuilt to have Aviation Support of 120.

Now back to your normally scheduled show.

[John 3rd]

Isn't life grand???

This is why I have had to recall the Minister from his Hawaiin Shirts and Pina Colada days of retirement!

As an official idiot, I didn't even think to shutdown the repairs going on in the aircraft industry.  Will go through the bases on this turn and provide for shutdown.  YES to all fighters and NO to anything else...

[Q-Ball]

John and I have this going in our 2x2. You have a production wish list, but you have to edit the list; not enough supplies to support EVERY objective.

I have been very conservative in that one with production expansion, because without supplies, it's all moot anyway.

I noticed Dan has been tageting resources, apparently this is having an effect on supply levels.

The only fix at this point is turning off factory repairs.

Whatever you do, DO NOT increase Heavy Industry! I don't think Japan needs to EVER increase HI! Doing so just consumes supply, and without Oil to feed it is useless anyway.

[John 3rd]

I turned off expansion/repair for a BUNCH of aircraft factories on the July 25th turn.  We'll see if that helps at all.  Add the big convoys coming in and perhaps things will start to improve within the Home Islands.
 

[Bogo Mil]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
John - you MUST go through all your bases in Japan and make a decision on which factories can have the repair function turned off. As it is now places like Gumma and Tokyo will get above 10k and use the 1k to repair a factory that the AI chooses!! [X(]

Afaik the AI doesn't choose factories. Each factory gets one repair if supply is over 10k. If there are 6 repairing factories and you have 10500 supplies in a base, they will all repair and supply drops to 4500 (plus production, rail transport etc.). I'm not sure what happens if there are more than 10 factories repairing in one base, though.

To the Japanese Fanboys - I don't know how to deal with this, but John needs suggestions on how to deal with a growing supply shortage.

I would stop all repairs completely now. If you repair something, how long will it produce until it's destroyed again or runs out of oil/HI points? Maybe one month, maybe three. I don't think that's worth that many supplies.

Soerabaja - You need to rotate through your Sentai/Daitai and stand them down to allow aircraft to repair. You have some set on 90% CAP with almost all planes damaged. They will repair faster if they are stood down.

Palembang is cut off soon. I think you should plan a final oil convoi from there. Once it left Palembang, you can move out all your air defense - you don't have to defend the oil fields if you can't get the oil anyway. This should free some fighter and AAA units for more important areas.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: Bogo Mil

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
John - you MUST go through all your bases in Japan and make a decision on which factories can have the repair function turned off. As it is now places like Gumma and Tokyo will get above 10k and use the 1k to repair a factory that the AI chooses!! [X(]

Afaik the AI doesn't choose factories. Each factory gets one repair if supply is over 10k. If there are 6 repairing factories and you have 10500 supplies in a base, they will all repair and supply drops to 4500 (plus production, rail transport etc.). I'm not sure what happens if there are more than 10 factories repairing in one base, though.

If there are more than 10 factories and > 10000 but < 11000 supplies then only 10 factories will repair - these being the first 10 slots in the database list of the base. I'm fairly sure at 11k supplies then 11 could repair etc ... Anyway it is a very quick method to eat up your supplies.

To the Japanese Fanboys - I don't know how to deal with this, but John needs suggestions on how to deal with a growing supply shortage.

I agree with NY59 - shut down those repairs as well as any base repairs (even do this universally if you wish)...

Supplies produced:
Japan - 15k Manch - 5k per turn... maybe a moot point especially since John reports there are little supplies in Manchuria now, but as a JFB I constantly move supplies from here and Indochina (1000) / Formosa (800).

Cheers
Damian

[ny59giants]

Here is the situation at Gumma as of 24 July 44. All aircraft factories had Repair set to YES. That is why I told him to turn off all but one or two to repair.

[veji1]

god this is horrible ! even a bad player likes me knows not to do that... It seems that John is a great player when it comes to operations but isn't an expert on jap economy...

[John 3rd]

Let us simply say that I am competent in tactics and strategy; however, am 'challenged' economically!  [8|][:D][8|]  "Dammit Jim I am strategist not an economist!"

The reason I have so enjoyed this campaign's AAR is the contributions of all the players who have jumped in, provided commentary, offered help, and given thoughts as to strategy.  It has been a blast and major learning experience.  Let us add abject humiliation to the list too...

As mentioned above, I have shutoff all but fighter repairs.  There has been an immediate effect.  Am getting ready for the July 28th turn.  Figure Dan and I will get to August 1st today.  If we do I will post a major economic update with pretty pictures as well as statistics.

Thanks for everything guys and may the AAR continue to serve readers so they can AVOID my problems.

PS:  I do have a final convoy loading at Palembang right now.  Everyday has been an anxious one as I see it fill to 90,000 oil...

[Mark VII]

From the Gumma image:

I would even totally halt production of Tina's, maybe the Jake's and some of the bombers. You need fighters to slow down the heavy bombing of the homeland.

[Mike Solli]

Can you post a screen of your plane pool?&nbsp; That might help to suggest what should (or should not) be shut off.

[John 3rd]

Here is the initial troops being used at Johore Bharu. Notice the large contingent of Indian Inf Div. Dan has taken the maximum Political Point Penalty for non-withdrawal of British warships for SIX months in a row!

[John 3rd]

In answer to Mike's request here are the most recent types that are in production:

[John 3rd]

Middle aged planes:

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Color me stupid.  Thanks!  Either didn't know or had forgotten that.

You have forgot! [;)] The third of fourth time already! [:D]

My thoughts as well, as I read about your victory East of Wake. [:D] (I'm slowly trying to get caught up from about 6 weeks of posts [;)])

[John 3rd]

The older models with details as to current state-of-affairs over Japan.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: USS America

ORIGINAL: castor troy

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

Color me stupid.  Thanks!  Either didn't know or had forgotten that.


[/quote


You have forgot! [;)] The third of fourth time already! [:D]

My thoughts as well, as I read about your victory East of Wake. [:D] (I'm slowly trying to get caught up from about 6 weeks of posts [;)])

Hello Sir! How have you been doing? Haven't seen a post from your avatar in AGES!

[John 3rd]

Hee-Hee! [:D][:D]

[USSAmerica]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

ORIGINAL: USS America

ORIGINAL: castor troy





You have forgot! [;)] The third of fourth time already! [:D]

My thoughts as well, as I read about your victory East of Wake. [:D] (I'm slowly trying to get caught up from about 6 weeks of posts [;)])

Hello Sir! How have you been doing? Haven't seen a post from your avatar in AGES!

John, I'm great. I've just been neglecting my AAR reading, as my slow game with Mynok has started moving again. If you haven't seen posts from my avatar, you haven't been looking in the War Room or THE THREAD!!![:D]