MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

Time for me to quit for the night, I think. One more note about the post #1519 . . . this retreat plan is why it is important to have the MECH where he is in the clear rather than stacked with the HQ. If Germany does manage a breakthrough into that hex, the units to west of Vitebsk won't be able to get where they're going.

Of course, this assumes my plans for the next defensive line are somewhat sound.

Good night, all, and enjoy debating my foibles. [:)]

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Suddenly, the Soviet units available in the Force Pool seem to have multiplied with those pesky MIL.

You will be building mostly Mil, with maybe an Inf if the BPs turn out to be an odd number. I thought some of the Mil had free setup locations, but they all have designated cities.[:(] Even so, it is better to have them arrive immediately and get railed to the front than to have an Inf arrive a turn later in the frontline.

The ATRs are going to be busy reorganizing units - not doing ground strikes. That Astrakhan Mil (if selected) might be able to walk to the Persian border.


That second turn of summer is going to be very hard on the Russians, with so few reinforcements arriving - it always is. Throwing Mil into the path of the German onslaught is a standard practice, since they can reappear again the next turn.

[Red Prince]

I'm also wondering if it is now time to scrap those destroyed 3-3 INF. They were fine for building at the start of the game to garrison the border, but the Soviets are going to find themselves a little short on BP very soon. Once the MIL are built out and with so many INF returning to the Force Pools, it seems like a waste of 3 BP to bring a 3-3 INF back to life in the current desparate situation.
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Edit: Despite the bug that prevents me from actually sending BP from one nation to another overseas, I might be able to find a way to work around this. I haven't done it for the French because there just aren't enough convoys available to justify sending those BP. But, once the USA enters the war, there will be convoys to spare for BP and resource shipments. With summer coming up, Archangel will not be iced in for at least 2 straight turns -- crucial ones for the Soviets, and if I can get 25 convoy points stretching from the East Coast to the Arctic Ocean, that means I can send 5 BP each turn to Moscow . . . as long as the rail lines hold. I can't send any through Murmansk until that rail line is re-opened, because BP lent must go to the capital (as I understand it).

Anyway, the point is, that if the USA enters the war this turn, I can figure out a way to make this happen -- as long as the convoy routes are in place.

[Red Prince]

Awake again, and with my mind fresh as can be in the morning, I considered the situation carefully. I looked at it again, and decided that Steve was right about the 5-4 being left alone, but that the solution I proposed was the wrong one. Instead of reinforcing it from the hex to the East, I should use one of the units that moved into the forest hex North of the Dvina. That leaves only 5 factors in that hex, but they are white-print factors in a forest hex that can only be attacked from 2 hexes, both of which give this unit the protection of a river.

This also means that even if the weather permits the Germans to move into the hex marked below (and I don't think they can even in Fine weather), I can still institute the retreat plan I proposed above in Post #1519. At that point, the CAV will be dead, so the 5-4 Siberian left alone in the river bend will no longer be safe and will need to retreat.

So, while I know many of you are in time zones that may prove me to be making a false statement here: I'm going to assume that the 9 hours that have passed since I posted my Soviet moves . . . without any major objections . . . means that my setup is good enough based on the available forces. So I'll continue on with the game.

Here's the revised image, showing the Siberian that I'm going to switch to cover the disorganized 5-4 INF:

[Red Prince]

To end the impulse, the CW sent a FTR it had near Plymouth to London, in case the Germans decide to bring in more protection to the region. The LND shown in the image above is now still within Ground Support range of everyone else shown, but is located in a forest NW of Bryansk, and the 2 LND that got caught to the SW of Stavropol are now on the Persian front.

And life in the Soviet Union continues to be dreary, with the new weather roll changing nothing:

[Red Prince]

This impulse, Germany obviously took a Land Action, but both Italy and Japan took Combined Actions. Italy did this to pick up the remaining German divisions in Libya (and to pick up a GARR to put in Malta) while using the 2 land moves to keep the HQs rolling toward the Iraqi supply-chain positions. Japan needed the Combined in order to finally put their Marines to use.

In all, there are going to be 3 German attacks and a Japanese invasion of Rangoon! (I decided India can wait).
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Edit: This gives you a better indication of how the Include Notional Unit form is used (as compared to the last one I posted). The defender is a dinky TERR unit with only 1 combat factor. The MAR units are both invading from the 2 Box, so the Notional gets 2 factors from that, 1 for the city, and -1 for being OOS (the CW has no SCS in the Bay of Bengal anymore, so it can't trace a supply line back to a home country of its controlling Major Power). That's 2 factors added to its base of 1, so you get a 3-factor Notional to help the TERR.
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2nd Edit: I think I screwed up the calculations for the Notional unit, but I'm not sure how. I am sure it's not MWiF (or pretty sure). I just don't have a very good handle on calculating Notionals yet.[:)]
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Again, don't forget that these are the odds before Shore Bombardment and Ground Support.

[Red Prince]

The attacks for Impulse #9:



And the results:

Attack on Latvia [43, 50]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .589 (Yes), Roll = Automatic = */2B
Attack on Cernauti: Assault, Fractional Odds .218 (Yes), Roll = 8+1 = 9 = */2S (Bessarabia is again part of Rumania)
Attack on USSR [56, 55]: Assault, Roll = Automatic = */2S
Attack on Rangoon: Assault, Fractionsl Odds .233 (Yes), Roll = 7+1 = 8 = */2S (3 Oil Points captured)

I could have tried to take Riga, but decided that it would be more trouble than it's worth at the moment. Better to wait for either higher odds or better weather. HQ-A Rommel needed to stay where he was in order to reorganize units at the end of the impulse, so I let the Soviets "have their way" and took the Mongolian CAV out of the equation. That's actually not so bad for the USSR, since it will come back in the Far East . . . where it can try to slow down the Japanese.

The other 2 attacks in the USSR were easy. What was hard was trying to figure out how to make the attack on Cernauti a sure thing while still advancing a good number of units into the Ukraine . . . and keeping them under FTR cover. This rain is a real pain for things like that.

Turns out I was right when it came to the Notional Unit combat value. Don't know what confused me, but it doesn't really matter. The reason I went for Rangoon instead of getting a foot in the door in India is simple: 3 Oil Points were stacked with that TERR, and all that remains to defend Burma is a 2-factor MIL in Mandalay. So far this turn, the Japanese have captured 7 Oil Points, 2 Oil hexes, and when conquest comes around (unless that MIL moves onto the Oil, which is likely) another 3 Oil hexes will be in Japanese hands. The biggest joke of all is that if the USA doesn't successfully DOW Japan before this turn ends, they'll still have to ship 2 Oil to the Japanese!
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What I said about streaks before still stands. Including the failed USA DOW, the roll to end the turn last impulse, and the weather roll for this impulse, it seems like the last 10 or more rolls have all been a '7' or higher. Weird, isn't it?

[Red Prince]

The rebasing I did at the end of the impulse was mostly to aid the Persian front, with 2 German and 2 Italian LND getting into positions to be useful against the Soviets.

What you see below is not an American Football diagram, though it may look like one. It is the plans for the first phase of the Persian war.

[Red Prince]

With the next impulse (Allied) having a 50% chance to end the turn, and the one after that (Axis) a 70% chance, it's unlikely that I can advance the Germans far enough into the Ukraine to put them out of supply range of the HQs in the area. So, in addition to reorganizing the Northern Front units with Rommel, I decided to use Rundstedt for reorganization, too. The Soviets aren't likely to use any of their incoming reinforcements on Odessa next turn, but they might get some sneaky ideas later in the summer. To prevent that, I want to take Odessa out as soon as I can. Unless the turn goes longer than expected, the Axis only has one more impulse to work with, and that means falling short of the Dnieper line. If I do get that far, it won't be in strength . . . and the attacks would be too weak, so I want to make sure I have enough brute force to take Odessa without any problems.

[Red Prince]

Flash!!!

Breaking news, and an instant update: All those plans I was talking about will come to nothing. The turn just ended, and they'll have to be revised to fit the start of a new turn. Wonderful time for the die rolls to stop being high, don't you think?

[Red Prince]

With the turn ending so early, this means the Allies have had a total of 6 impulses in the last 6 months! That isn't good at all.

Here's what the weather looked like in M/A '41:

[Red Prince]

A look at all of the units Destroyed during the first turn of the truly Global War (almost global, anyway), M/A '41:
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That's a total of 16 units and 42 BP worth of dead Russians without a single Axis loss!


So, should I get rid of those 3-3 INF or keep them around for a while?

[Red Prince]

This time around the US Entry Pools form looks a little different. I don't think I actually posted a version of the form before making any chit draws before, but normally you only see the two middle buttons on the left, with the arrows pointing at an angle toward the Entry Pools. That means you draw 1 chit to either pool, but not both.

This version shows you what happens after Japan DOWs the CW and/or France (also the Netherlands if that happens), and also when Germany and/or Italy DOWs China (which I forgot about, so please forgive me [:(] ). Each of those actions means an extra chit to the corresponding US Entry Pool . . . so you have 2 chits that have to go into the Ja pool for the DOWs on the CW and France, and 1 chit that has to go into the Ge/It pool for the DOW on China.

Perhaps it is time for China to surrender? I actually don't know if that ends the chit draws to the Ge/It pool, but I do know it won't add a chit per turn to the Ja pool -- that only happens if China is conquered. That isn't going to take long once the weather starts improving around Kunming.

Anyway, here's what the form looks like before you draw to the pools:

[composer99]

The 3-3 INF can be second units in a stack in the mountains in the Caucasus or defending cities (or mountains) against Japanese attack.

[composer99]

No, the US is almost in, and Japan's not going to be inconvenienced by the surrender by going neutral itself now. China might as well tough it out.

[composer99]

Also, these next two turns are what the Allies gave up going first in March/April for. The Allies want to go first and should feel free to burn re-rolls to make it happen.

[Red Prince]

I'm going to pause for a few minutes I think, because some may disagree with what I'm about to do.

I took the 2 mandatory chits for the Ja Entry Pool, and the 1 mandatory chit for the Ge/It Entry Pool . . . and decided to take the other one there, too. It lowered my overall chance to enter the war -- temporarily -- for a DOW on Germany or Italy, but I was hoping to roll a high chit, since the first one was very low:

USA drew 2 markers to the Ja Entry Pool (54 [1], 229 [2])
USA drew 2 makers to the Ge/It Entry Pool (3 [1], 240 [2])

Anyway, here's what you might dislike: I am going to choose 2 options that have the best chance of moving a total of 4 chits from the Entry Pools to the Tension Pools. These options are highlighted below in the composite image.

There are a few reasons I want the USA to Occupy Northern Ireland. First, it gives me a primary supply source right on the edge of the European theatre, so I can start moving my fleet from Norfolk to Belfast. Second, with the US almost certainly getting its production multiple up to 1.25 before the end of the turn, and getting a boost every J/F after that, the factory is actually more efficient in the hands of the USA than it is remaining with the CW. Finally, it offers 5 hexes to start collecting troops and air units close to the European front.

As for the Commonwealth Reinforces the Pacific . . . well, it has the best chance of bleeding off 2 chits from the Ja Entry Pool to the Tension Pool, hopefully meaning a higher chance of a DOW early in M/J '41. Once that DOW succeeds (and it is a near certainty now that the Summer is near), all of the other options get picked, too, so it really doesn't matter what I choose now, does it?

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

If the Germans go in in March/April, unless they get a long clear-weather turn they probably won't kill a whole lot of USSR units.

So I agree with Steve in building MOT and HQ-I Koniev. Also, the MECH should be produced. All of these units will arrive in the key July/August turn, as will any INF/GARR builds in March/April.

I found this post (#1299) while searching through for my last End of Turn report, since I like to do things in the same order each turn.

Well, it was a short turn, only 5 total impulses, and the Germans . . . hmmm . . . would you say they killed a whole lot of USSR units? [;)]

[Red Prince]

My break is over (lunch is in my tummy), so here is the M/A '41 chit Summary:

Impulse: 1
Germany DOW USSR; USE-6 (+1 chit, 170 [1]
Germany DOW China; USE-5 (+6 chits, 503 [3], 592 [3], 915 [6], 18 [1], 25 [1], 553 [3])
Japan DOW USSR; USE-4 (+1 chit, 836 [4])
Japan DOW CW; USE-6 (+3 chits, 904 [5], 222 [2], 508 [3])
Japan DOW France; USE-4 (+3 chits, 635 [3], 128 [1], 7 [1])
Japan moves CAV into Tianshui; USE-8 (no chit)
Japan moves MIL into Ankang; USE-9 (no chit)

Impulse: 3
USSR DOW Italy; USE-1 (-4 chits, 14 of 16 [3], 13 of 15 [3], 8 of 14 [1], 2 of 13 [1]) Actual Roll = 10 (-3 chits)
CW DOW Yemen (It); USE-1 (-1 chit, 9 of 12 [3]) Actual Roll = 6 (-1 chit)
France DOW Yemen; USE-1 (-1 chit, 4 of 11 [1]) Actual Roll = 3 (-1 chit)
USSR DOW Yemen; USE-1 (-1 chit, 2 of 10 [1]) Actual Roll = 3 (-1 chit)

Impulse: 5
Attack on Singapore: Assault, Fractional Odds .673 (Yes), Roll = 10 = */2S; USE-8 (+1 chit, 730 [4])
Japan rebases NAV from Kweiyang to Hanoi, NAV from Truk to Kwajalein; USE-5 (+1 chit, 565 [3])

End of Turn:
USA drew 2 markers to the Ja Entry Pool (54 [1], 229 [2])
USA drew 2 makers to the Ge/It Entry Pool (3 [1], 240 [2])
USA chooses Occupy Northern Ireland (Ge/It); USE-3 (2 chits moved, 9 of 10 [3], 1 of 9 [1])
USA chooses Commonwealth Reinforces Pacific (Ja), adjusted by +3; USE-4 (2 chits moved, 15 of 20 [3], 12 of 19 [3])

Ge/It Entry: 46
Ge/It Tension: 28
Chance of DOW: 60%
Japan Entry: 70
Japan Tension: 31
Chance of DOW: 60%

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Flash!!!

Breaking news, and an instant update: All those plans I was talking about will come to nothing. The turn just ended, and they'll have to be revised to fit the start of a new turn. Wonderful time for the die rolls to stop being high, don't you think?

This is why I did not want the 5-4 in the clear. Putting a second unit in the clear hex is even worst. If the Germans move first they will ground strike that hex, and any disorganized units will be dead meat. You have to avoid clear hexes as the USSR whenever possible. Hide in the woods, or even better, in the swamp. The USSR can't afford any mistakes because losing even 1 unit needlessly makes their defense so very much harder.

In the north the USSR must pull back, the Dvina defensive line is lost and any attempt to hold onto it now is pointless. Since the weather is going to be great for the entire turn, the USSR should withdraw from contact with the German forces and occupy every other hex, leaving the Germans with only 2 hexes from which to attack the double stacked Russians. Forest, swamp, and rivers are the order of the day.

The 7-1 Gar goes into Leningrad, then you can forget about that city. Railing the 6-1 out of Pskov to Novogrod is a possibility, but there are a lot of other uses for the rail moves, so probably not.[:(]

If the USSR doesn't win the initiative, it must try for a reroll.