Dispatches from OKH: Q-Ball (Axis) v. Von Beeanie (SOV)

[2ndACR]

Yep, welcome to the great blizzard. Does not matter what your fort levels are, 2-3 turns of blizzard and he will rip your line to shreds and you will be facing him with divisions that have 8000 or less troops in them. You could stop all offensive ops in Sept 41 and have level 4 and 5 forts across your entire front, 3 turns of blizzard later and you are toast. We need a way to reward the German player who halts the advance and prepares for winter.

Not only do you take horrendous attrition losses, but your CV is slashed horribly to boot.

Make sure those panzer div get back into Kursk before turn end or you will see them with 3 CV next turn and useless to you.

[Encircled]

You have lots of territory to retreat into

Trade space for time, and ride out the winter

Get your Panzers into the cities, and as soon as the blizzard stops, they will be in ideal condition to strike back.

[2ndACR]

You better start retreating all the way back to Minsk and Kiev. Or your units will be mere shells. People gripe because I pull back almost 5-10 hexes before winter hits. Sorry, but I prefer he burn a couple turns getting back to my front lines. That could be 2-3 blizzard turns without attacks.

[janh]

Exactly, trade space for time.  A good Russian opponent like Von Beanie who avoids the mistakes the Russians made historically, and who even conducts a rather orderly withdrawal, can preserve his forces so well that during blizzard you seemingly will have little chances to hold.  The blizzard rules render the German defenders quite weak. But maybe you can still hold some strongpoints that his forces would bleed white against, like Cholm?

Against a preserved Russian Army, the best counter-move would be to return the same favor and retreat slowly during the blizzard turns to keep as much of your army alive as you can. The Russians seem to be doing extremely well against your well-prepared defenses compared to the rather few and very costly breakthroughs they managed historically under much more favorable circumstances. But perhaps his steam will blow off soon?

[abulbulian]

Qball, welcome to blizzards. You haven't had the 13 turns of hell yet? I posted about trying to have reduced blizzard effect for forted units. Your forts don't really help much, because your final calc'd CV value will still be so low. The sov player will keep hammering you as long as his units have the ready status to do so.

IMO, blizzard is too much and the reduced effects that should occur after Dec to Feb, don't seem to be of any significance as they should be.

Just keep moving back and good luck trying to hold a line. Just wait until 42 when your ready to attack around 6-7/42 and the sov player is forted '4's all over. IMO and expereince too, if he has around 7 million troops by then, it's game over.

[2ndACR]

I really think instead of tying to forts, it should be done another way.

Say like this. Any German unit that has not moved for 4 turns, the player can spend 20AP's to "winterize" that unit. It will suffer much lower attrition losses and will not suffer the slashing of CV power like normal units. The player can "winterize" up to 50 div. This way they become little mountain troops. But still suffer attrition losses, but at say 50% less than a non winterized unit.

Now we are using history against the them. Documents show the Germans had 50 div sets of winter gear stored, but could not use due to heavy ammo/fuel shipments needed. Since the unit basically has to be removed from play for a month, there we go.

[2ndACR]

See my winter idea thread for further winter comments if you have some.

[Klydon]

I think you had one of the best openings a German could have against an opponent and IMO, you were also prudent in your moves to get ready for winter.

I will be posting elsewhere on this subject (as others have as well), but there are a couple core issues here. The Germans are likely to be unable to create the losses the Russians actually suffered because the Russians did so badly in 1941 and it is very easy to do better for the vast majority of games. (not saying there are not exceptions to the rule, but most games follow this pattern). The second core issue is the blizzard effects need to be reworked. The Germans are simply too easy to not only push around but to outright slaughter in the winter. Part of this is because the Russians have more to work with, but not to the point where I can use a single Russian division to make a hasty attack on most German infantry divisions and the result is a win. I think winning 63 of 76 attacks says it in spades. The Germans had to give ground and got pushed back, but they were able to stabilize a front at some point in January where there was severe fighting in the center; where German counter attacks were possible. The German CV's are simply too low to consider any of that.

In my test game, I think I am half way through January and the German army is pretty much toast. I think I have destroyed close to 100 Axis formations so far and losses have been running 4 Axis for 1 Russian a turn for the last several turns. Both sides have suffered over 2 million casualties at this point and while I have lost more as the Russian, by the end of winter, I expect to have the Axis with more casualties than the Russians. The Germans currently have less than 2 million in the field right now. I switched over to version 5 right at the start of December, so this is after most of the fixes.

Until things get figured out, I think the grand campaign game starting in 1941 is going to end in frustration for the Germans far more often than not. A 1942 start may have to be the norm until the blizzard stuff gets sorted out.

[Q-Ball]

Turn 28, 12/25/41:

KLYDON: I agree with your comments; though the Axis should suffer big attrition losses, I wonder if the CV is too low for the Germans. I am definitely getting pushed around, and this turn will be no better; my Divisions are there just as Speed-bumps now.

CRIMEA:
In addition to the Bryansk front, the Russians are breaking out of the Crimea. The first line of Size 3-4 forts at the chokepoints are gone. There is another size 3 line behind those, then air. I probably should have had more than 4 German Divisions and 10 Romanian ones down there, but oh well. Panzers are on the way. I expect a breakout, which will probably unhinge everything East of the Dnepr. I think I can contain him, but we'll see; the alternative is a withdrawl behind the Dnepr.

It didn't take long to get me; I withdrew from the Crimea the first two turns back to what I thought was the safety of my forts, but they only lasted 2 turns. Now what?

16th Army:

South of Lake Ilmen, this Army is also about to collapse. The 12 Divisions are down to a total of under 100,000 men. I have a line of Size-3 trenches to fall back on, but once those are gone, we will probably have to pull-back toward Pskov, and hope he runs out of supplies and/or time.

[2ndACR]

Yep, that is the double whammy you get hit with. My biggest gripe. The auto drop in CV is a huge killer.

[bwheatley]

ORIGINAL: 2ndACR

I really think instead of tying to forts, it should be done another way.

Say like this. Any German unit that has not moved for 4 turns, the player can spend 20AP's to "winterize" that unit. It will suffer much lower attrition losses and will not suffer the slashing of CV power like normal units. The player can "winterize" up to 50 div. This way they become little mountain troops. But still suffer attrition losses, but at say 50% less than a non winterized unit.

Now we are using history against the them. Documents show the Germans had 50 div sets of winter gear stored, but could not use due to heavy ammo/fuel shipments needed. Since the unit basically has to be removed from play for a month, there we go.

+1

[Klydon]

64 and 4 on attacks. What a joke.. [:@]

How have combat losses been? If he is also bleeding himself white attacking you, then that could be one thing, but I got the feeling even that is not happening.

I must say I am really disappointed on this. I thought a lot could be done with German openings, how they conduct the campaign and that good play would get rewarded with a chance to do something in 1942, despite the set backs of the winter. Those opening move threads were a great idea and I think it has helped the play of many of the Germans who have checked them out. I think one of the testers mentioned that in the south they gave up 10-12 hexes, an average of 6-8 in the center and 4 or so up north. I don't see how that is possible under the current game system to hold the Russians to that amount of an advance; not with the success rate the Russians are having attacking. 

Hang in there. I have to believe they are observing this AAR and seeing how things are going. Just need to figure out something that gets things a bit more closer to balance without blowing up everything else.

[Q-Ball]

I just got the next turn. This one was 46-14. Maybe the Soviets are running out of gas? But I will have to retreat further, as my units are really, really smashed.

I also have 176,000 Men in the German Manpower Pool, with ZERO Armaments. We have no Rifles. This is with the 100K extra from the Patch.

We are going to play it out for posterity, but we will lose PILES of territory. I have not retreated yet this turn, but it's inevitable.

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Klydon
I think one of the testers mentioned that in the south they gave up 10-12 hexes, an average of 6-8 in the center and 4 or so up north. I don't see how that is possible under the current game system to hold the Russians to that amount of an advance; not with the success rate the Russians are having attacking. 

I think this goes back to a comment made by BigAnorak or Pyledriver sometime earlier. I got the impression the testers on the German side pushed their attacks much harder knowing that any Russian unit wasted before blizzard hits even though depleting their forces was still a better kill-loss ratio than during blizzard. So the Russians might have entered blizzard much weaker (though it looks like Q-Ball tried the same!?). That may be more historic, especially if the Russians fought for terrain during summer. But still means that the blizzard model and rules they transferred from WiR are still too simple and in parts wrong. The discussion in the main thread is really good, from attrition to both sides, lowering of German (armored) MP and winter-readiness limited to Russian past-mud reinforcements etc. Hopefully some is simple enough that it can still be incorporated.

[karonagames]

One of the parameters I used in testing was to measure the number of successful attacks each turn to calculate the the average number of hexes the front line would move based on a 120 hex front line.

Against the AI, the AI would make 90+ attacks but over 50% would be "hold" results so they would net about 40-45 hexes per turn. So over 13 turns they would take 520-585 hexes, and I maybe had to retreat from 120-150 hexes that were outflanked, so the average movement of a 120 hex front line would be between 5 and 6 hexes, split between the Army Groups as noted above.

Against a human, there were fewer attacks but a higher % of retreats, but the average number was pretty similar to the results against the AI (40-45 retreats per turn). The biggest difference was in the number of hexes that I voluntarily had to retreat from, due to the human being better able to co-ordinate attacks to produce outflanking and breakthroughs that required bigger retreats. It is this voluntary retreat that is the biggest variable in the AARs I have seen to date. Some of it is being forced by the SU, but some is purely voluntary and doesn't always need to be.

The only evidence I have from my tests is that if the Axis can get to or beyond the historical front line as at 1st December 1941, the Axis can start 1942 in front of the historical 1942 front lines with higher manpower and equipment levels, except in AGS's sector. I have have made recommendations to Joel to fix this, but as yet we have not been given a version to test that incorporates these changes.

Prior to v5 there were problems with morale and experience levels that were not present in my tests, which was causing infantry division CVs to be 1.1 points lower than the 1942 campaign start benchmark. I have a test going with Speedy that is just about to enter the blizzard, and we are working as fast as we can to pull in data to see if the changes fix this.

I will post this in the other thread.

[karonagames]

also have 176,000 Men in the German Manpower Pool, with ZERO Armaments. We have no Rifles. This is with the 100K extra from the Patch.

What is the "rifle squad" pool figure? These are the rifles that will equip rifle squads, not actual squads or damaged squads awaiting repair, which is what I thought this figure was until Joel clarified it for me.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
We are going to play it out for posterity, but we will lose PILES of territory. I have not retreated yet this turn, but it's inevitable.

Q-Ball, I admire you a lot: I consider you my "sensei" in the art of playing WiTP:AE. But I think you got your defense very, very wrong.

I've been studying the Winter battles by playing to death with the Operation Typhoon scenario. As the scenario description says, it's an excellent learning scenario. You get to experience all three possible weather conditions with both sides.

The problem with your defense is that, even knowing the dreadful effects of blizzard on Axis troops, you have tried to hold the Soviet Army on the open. The rules on how to ameliorate blizzard effects are pretty clear: get your units into cities. That, of course, means that you won't be opposing a strong linear defense to the RKKA. But if I had to choose between having a "checkered" defense in depth, with most of my forces inside cities, or, as you've done, keeping most of my army on the open, I'd choose the former. You're fighting two enemies: a resurgent RKKA and the weather. The former can be killed, gets over-extended and loses its steam after two or three weeks of intensive offensive operations. The latter is unkillable.

Why forts don't hold as well as one would expect? Easy: check the fatigue of your forces, I'm pretty sure that the average for the units outside cities is extremely high.

People worried about historicity: they should check better the literature on how the Wehrmacht stemmed the Russian tide. You won't find anywhere that the German commanders entertained the idea of holding trenches at -40 degrees Celsius with troops with no winter equipment nor even clothes as you're trying to do guys. The battles fought by the Wehrmacht during December 41 and January 42 didn't quite look like what the games are depicting.

And we're not seeing the Wehrmacht to regain the ground it historically did because the winter has put out of action more of your soldiers than the Soviets.

EDIT: I'd like to emphasize that I highly respect Q-Ball abilities and that this answer is not intended to sound dismissive or offensive. English is not my first language.

[ComradeP]

Yes, holding a line is pretty much suicidal in the blizzard. It will never work.

Holding hedgehogs (2-3 divisions in a hex) should be quite possible. That's not something the Soviets can just break through like level 4 forts held by an on-counter 4 CV unit. Concentrating forces in a few hexes is the way to go if you don't want to pull back without being under pressure.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: BigAnorak


Prior to v5 there were problems with morale and experience levels that were not present in my tests, which was causing infantry division CVs to be 1.1 points lower than the 1942 campaign start benchmark. I have a test going with Speedy that is just about to enter the blizzard, and we are working as fast as we can to pull in data to see if the changes fix this.

Good to know. I fear beta 5 changes will be offset by other change that has prevented Germans getting such high morale, which in turn will stop them killing as many russians, which will reduce effect of reduced russian manpower.

I have faith that a solution will be found even tho' I will probably have to put my PBEM games on hold until that happens. I'm playing both sides so am not a fanboy of either side.

[BletchleyGeek]

I don't want to hijack the AAR, but I think it's the ideal place to share with you the discussion we had on First Winter Rules and tactics on the AAR I'm keeping on my own GC (I'm playing as the Soviet and the forums are in Spanish):

http://www.puntadelanza.net/Foro/phpBB3 ... 07#p226507

ORIGINAL: Bletchley_Geek
Evidently, taking refuge in cities without leaving anything outside is suicidal: you're going to get encircled pretty badly. Another analogy: you're exposing yourself to one or more Annuals(*). I think it's necessary to take difficult decisions and start rotating units:

ORIGINAL: WiTE Manual, p.292
Manual WiTE p.292 escribió:
Axis units located in town, city and urban hexes can mitigate the first winter rules regarding
damaged ground elements and morale losses to some extent. Any units in an urban hex will
not suffer damage to their ground elements or morale losses during the logistics phase. In a
city hex, the two units with the highest CV’s will not be impacted. In a town hex, one unit with
the highest CV is eligible to avoid the penalty, but only if die(4) is less than or equal to the
population value of the town

The way to defend - I hope Q-Ball will show us on his AAR - from blizzard and an overbearing bear, is to keep your units in the cities and towns (they partially protect units from CV loss), see the Soviet movements, counterattack and go back to cover. It's hard to manage, you can forget about some unit or make bad moves, etc. It's not a silver bullet, but well executed, I'm convinced is the way to go.

What do you think Eduhausser? What are your experiences with this?

(*) This is a reference to a painful episode in Spanish military history: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Annual

Eduhausser is a Eastern Front grognard which has probably played even more games than me on this subject. Here is his answer:

ORIGINAL: Eduhausser
In effect, my operational doctrine with PzDiv's and Motorized divisions during Winter is exactly that one.

I usually deploy as much as I can my HQ's on big urban areas with the purpose that they are spared from logistical and morale penalizations. It's not a good idea to have HQ's penalized if you are worried about the good health of the units under his command.

I usually deploy just one division by town, I know there are zones more populated than others, but to put two Divs in only one town is a waste and in general I reserve the "city" hexes for the Panzers. During Winter is when I tend to assign SU's directly to those divisions, since I cannot rely on automatic asignations on behalf the HQs because of the frequent penalizations on Morale that has the damned Winter. I know I'm a bit too much of a fanboy with this but to my favorite divisions I usually assign to them at least one StuG abteilung, one SP AA and extra artillery, NebelWerfers when available.

Since they're protected on populated areas, the level of supplies and fuel is reasonably good, so it's movement allowance is quite big given that is Winter. They're ideal platforms for counterattacks.

I usually concentrate for each attack at least a couple of divisions, being that attack naturally a hasty attack. The reason being to be sure that the unit will be able to go back to the protection of the town once it hits the enemy. The Motorized Divisions are mainly used to ditch any hole on my lines, but *only* for one turn.

Sincerely, it's a nightmare, since you're always short of firemen to put out so many fires.

EDIT: I add the thoughts from Solon, yet another Spanish forum regular. He's a Fallschrimjäger fanboy and with a good reason, one of the guys I see able to think in more than two dimensions on WiTE:

ORIGINAL: Solon
In order to have the reserve mechanic to work the relevant HQ needs to not be penalized by Blizzard.

That means that if in a city, you can leave two units, one of them is a HQ. This limits a lot the units you can keep on cover.

For me, the perfect defense on Winter is based on having strong points around towns with pop 4 and cities. Using the railways you can create defenses, at greater distances.

Establishing a rotation, each turn, of the units deployed out of the cities and the units deployed on cities, you can keep the Army safe from suffering too many losses due to attrition.

All the units damaged in one turn are repaired the next one if you leave them inside a city. I usually put them in Refit as well. With this rotation you can keep control on attrition.

This strategy has all kinds of logistical problems. And you have to be willing to cede some terrain.

I think it's only option to have troops for the '42 offensive.

There needs to be as many strategies as players. But this is my solution for Winter!

I think that as long as the German player keeps the '41 veterans he'll be able to regain the initiative.