The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

[Canoerebel]

9/10/42

Bay of Bengal: Enemy CV force showing 77 F, 55 B, 3 Aux is between Port Blair and Rangoon. That's probably not an accurate count - usually cursor intel on carriers errs decidedly low when detection is modest or low, so I think this is a pretty substantial force. Moderate raids on Ramree. I have the option of sending fighters in unless John ramps things up a bit. The P-40K is available and one fighter squadron has swapped for it. So with that model and the P-39F online, the Americans pools aren't as meager as they seemed. (I don't have any P-39s in my pools, which is kind of alarming.)

Burma: The two Aussie divisions got 6:1 odds vs. 38th Div. but failed to boot it from the hex (100+ enemy squads were disabled). Shock attacks tomorrow. John will probably send in all his air and one of the Aussie units already has very high disruption. Even with a max enemy air effort, the Aussies should evict the Japanese with high losses unless enemy ground reinforcements arrive. This is a key battle - if the Allies can trash this second IJA division and open up this hex for transit, the Japanese position will become considerably more vulnerable. 4EB at very high altitudes went against a variety of enemy airfields mainly to interact with enemy CAP. Some of those flying at Magwe and Mandalay dealt with 70 Tojos (!!!), but the big beasts did a good job of attriting the enemy combat aircraft.

NoPac: Enemy sub sinks an escort DD at Seward (an ASW PG was sunk near Tasmania two days ago - this makes like 10 to 15 ASW or escort DDs or other small craft sunk by enemy subs to date - an annoyingly high number). More transport TFs departing Seattle for NoPac and additional "fake" TFs departing Pearl for the Midway vicinity (these will approach the western Aleutians from the south).

CenPac/SoPac/SWPac: The two upgrading American carriers at Pearl will be ready in six days. By then, all transport TFs will be at or past Tahit, with some between NZ and Oz. D-Day might be as soon as 25-30 days. That's still a long time away. Enemy patrols recon Brisbane - another indicator that John is beginning to cast nets in different directions, no longer confident that the Allies are moving on the Aleutians?

[Nemo121]

He also indicated that he's been flipping turns too fast, not giving some areas enough attention

No-one's forcing him to do this. If he's doing this then it is simply as a result of his own choice(s). Is it possible that as he's getting out of the "HULK smash everything in sight" stage of commanding Japan in the game that he's beginning to lay the groundwork for quitting due to RL commitments etc?

[Canoerebel]

I don't think so. In our previous hard-fought WitP game about six years ago, John and I went into 1945. He seems game, and given our long-time friendship I feel like he's good for the long haul. However, if the wheels come off, sometimes all bets are off (as in any PBME match). I have no idea if or when the wheels might come off in this game, but as with any Allied player, I'd like nothing better than to pry them loose and leave my noble opponent a quivering bundle of nerves and tears.

[Chickenboy]

Well, pry harder, will ya? I've got a ten spot riding on you getting the wheels off before 1944! [:D]

[Canoerebel]

9/11/42

Bay of Bengal: No sign of those enemy carriers today. No raids vs. Ramree, but I don't want to defend the island until my P-40K unit is ready (just one fighter is ready a day after the unit swapped aircraft). I "bought" an Indian brigade at Chittagong. Tonight begins the operation to move this to Ramree via APD. A Punjab unit late at Diego Garcia is enroute to Cochin. From there, it goes to Calcutta or Chittagong. It, too, will move forward to Ramree. That will give the defense roughly 700 AV, which should be enough to handle anything.

Burma: The Australian attack fizzled due to lack of supply and disruption - inflicting more casualites on the IJA division but failing to boot it from the hex. Also, although the Aussies control these hexsides, the Allied units NE and SW cannot move into the hex although they control the pertinent hexsides too. This whole "teleport" thing has been weird. I'm going to move the Aussies SW on the assumption they will have a hard time drawing supply. Helens en masse hit the Aussies today with modest effect, but lost 14 aircraft to very effective flak.

Pacific: Lots of Allied shipping moving around NoPac and near Midway. In another apparent glitch, my carrier status at Pearl hasn't changed in three days - one needs five more days; the other six more. I don't know what's holding them up, but it's not a big deal if it shakes out in a few days. I'll need more time to get units over to Oz anyway. Still no signs of major enemy preparations or awareness in the targeted area.

[Canoerebel]

9/12/42

Bay of Bengal: Massive enemy Tojo sweeps over Akyab - John's first foray into the primary Allied bastion. I counted 154 Tojos spread between roughly eight groups - the most with 30, the least with 3. The Allies had 135 fighters on CAP - a big mix of everything. I think the Allies won a big victory on the day - downing 55 Tojos (46 a-2-a, 9 ops) to about the same number of Allied fighters. But the Allied squadrons are still in good shape and I can bring in lots more, so the Allied abiilty to fight hasn't been degraded. The Tojo squadrons, on the other hand, should be a little beaten up for the short term. This may be important, because two enemy CV TFs are reported four hexes north (true) of Port Blair - my patrols report 7 CVE with 32 F, 23 B, 0 Aux plus one CV with 46 F, 33 B, 0 Aux. True number may be considerably beefier. Could the enemy be moving on Ramree? I wonder. APDs brought to Ramree roughly 90 AV from an Indian brigade at Chittagong, boosting AV to 535.

Burma: More raids - but less intense - over the Australians today. 41st USA Div. is guarding the hex to the SW. I think a nearly isolated IJA division in the jungle is going to try to exit into this hex. If the Americans are up to the task, this will give the Allies a crack at yet another enemy infantry division.

China: Back-to-back enemy attacks (first deliberate, then shock) at Chengte get 1:2 and 1:1 odds. Losses on both sides are light. Disablements much higher for Japan. The Chinese AV has dropped and won't recover well, so I'll bring forward a 435-AV unit from the adjacent hex.

NoPac: A three-DD IJN TF tangles with DD Blue far south of Adak, sinking her. An IJN sub sinks an xAK near Seward.

CenPac: The two upgrading USN carriers at Pearl still stuck on 5 and 6 days, respectively. Don't know what the hold up is.

SoPac: Enemy sub found just east of Auckland. Glen flies over that base. John's been nosing around here and SE Oz, but thus far isn't picking up anything interesting (mainly because my massive chain of TFs hasn't drawn close enough yet. The lead TF is 15 hexes out of Dunedin. Odds are the Japanese will catch wind of something as my TFs transit this choke point. Each TF, after passing Dunedin, will go to either Hobart or Sydney to unload and then, when the time comes, to combat load. If by some chance John hasn't caught wind of them by then, I'm sure he'll do so once the amphibous armado moves north and passes Brisbane.

[Canoerebel]

John indicated he "really" wanted to run this turn, then added he wanted to do so with "popcorn and peanuts." Unfortunately, he's running errands for awhile, so he's left me hanging.

Something big is in the offing. My guess is that he's finally moving in the Bay of Bengal in a big way. Most likely this might mean a combination of combat ships and carrier to try to whack my own combat ships and aircraft at Akyab. Less likely, but possible, would be an amphibious move on Ramree Island.

If he comes in great strength, I might get a whacking. But the Allied defenses are pretty stout. I have roughly six combat TFs at Akyab. Each night, three of them visit Ramree to guard against enemy bombardment TFs (that's never happened, so resetting my TFs every day for the past many months has grown a bit tedious). The three visiting Ramree are the Vincennes TF, the New Orleans/Helena TF, and a little TF with Boise and two DDs. Remaining at Akyab are the Pensacola TF, a small CL TF, and a TF with BB Revenge and CA Cornwell. For tonight, I also ordered two combat TFs at Chittagong - one with BB Ramilles and Royal Sovereign and CA Dorsetshire and the second led by CA Cornall - to move to Akyab and back. So there's going to be enough Allied combat ships in the region to prevent a nuclear bombardment that would close Akyab's airfield....I think and hope! Akyab has 220 fighters, Cox has 54, and Chittagong has 150. Those at Chittagong won't cover Akyab, of course, but it does provide some indepth defense.

Something big is coming at some point this afternoon. I think I'll go for a little seven-mile run in the mountains to relax a bit before the carnage takes place.

[pws1225]

little seven-mile run

Is there such a thing?

[Canoerebel]

Okay, so a seven-mile run in the mountains isn't "little," but by "little" I mean close by and convenient. I went, I did, I staggered, I lurched, I finished. Now I'm back drinking a big cup of unsweet ice tea. No turn from John, so I must be patient.

During said little run, I pondered what John's been up to. His latest air raid was sufficient to eventually overcome my CAP - IE, his last sweeps came in against little or no opposition. So he might surmise that another such sweep will also overcome my CAP, permitting carrier- and land-based strike aircraft to target my shipping.

Secondly, I wonder if he might be prepaing to cross the channel and shock attack with perhaps three divisions, preceded by BB bombardments of the Allied troops at Ramree. This, too, might be effective. My guesstimate of the Allied AV: 300 x 2 for 100% prep; 530 x 2 for jungle terrain; 530 x roughly .25 for presence of an HQ unit plus three forts = adjusted AV of roughly 1750. All units are fully supplied. Bombardment and bombings might erode the AV a bit, but it would probably take at least four divisions to have a prayer of victory in anything but the long term. It would be a decisive Allied victory if Japan commits two or three divisions that get bogged down in that remote outpost, pinned there by a hodgepodge of small units while the major Allied combat units are moving out in Burma proper.

But if there's a titanic sea battle at Ramree and/or Akyab, John's had time to bring all his big stuff and plenty of it, so the Allies are going to take a pretty hard lick.

[JeffroK]

An advantage of going metric, a 7 kilometre run is so much easier1

[Canoerebel]

Arg, John sent a first email intending to attach the 001 file, but misclicked on an old 007 file; then, he sent another email intending to re-attach the 001 plus the 007....but the 001 is corrupted and won't load and he actually didn't attach the 007. So I'm stuck here for the next 1.5 hours and he probably won't check his email in time to rectify the problem. So it may be tomorrow morning before I know what happened.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: JeffK

An advantage of going metric, a 7 kilometre run is so much easier1

But OTOH seven kilometers will kill you.

[whippleofd]

Now I'm back drinking a big cup of unsweet ice tea

[:-] What is the vile drink of which you speak? Must be a yankee thing. [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Well, John is having some kind of massive problem at his house. I did receive and run a good 001 file, so I've seen the movie. But now the 007 turn file won't load. So I can't get the real skinny quite yet.

Overall, though, I'd say the day was an Allied victory, though the battle is just beginning in all likelihood....

[Canoerebel]

9/13/42

Bay of Bengal: At least two enemy carrier TFs park close to Akyab. Both land-based and carrier-bases trikes vs. Allied shipping at Akyab and Cox's Bazaar score some hits but at high cost to Japanese aircraft. Royal Soverign and Ramilles take multiple TTs - 3x on one, 4x on the other. Both are damaged heavily but not critically and should make the comparative safety of Chittagong, which has lots of CAP. At Akyab, Boise takes moderate damage as does an APD; another APD sinks (I think that's the first I've lost). The Japanes lose in excelss of 180 aircraft including 38 Betty, 32 Kate, 9 Nell, 67 Zero, 29 Val and 5 Tojo. The Allies lose about 36 fighters of all kinds. No enemy bombardment runs. No question that on this day the Allies came out on top. I don't think John took enough losses to persuade him to retire, but I'll be interested in seeing. Like any player, he hates one-sided air battles and he's had more than his share in going up against Allied LBA. Cursor intel reveals the presence of 7 CVE (36 F 46 B 0 Aux) and three CV (73 F, 70 B, 3 Aux). I need to do some figuring to see what might be there and what might still be out in the Pacific.

Bay of Bengal Tomorrow: Big questions. I think John may invade Ramree. I've elected, however, to keep all my combat vessels at Akyab on the basis that the worst thing that could happen would be to leave that port underprotected only to have massive bombardments close the airfield. That would be devastating. So Ramree stands on its own - mines, 550 AV, CD guns and jungle terrain will have to suffice for now. Meanwhile, Akyab gets more fighters and should be tough for his aircraft tomorrow, given their likely fatigue and disablement numbers. I'm expected massive enemy bombardments at Ramree, but as long as Akyab holds tight, the Allies will still hold the upper hand.

Burma: An IJ divisiion moved out of the jungle into the hex with 41st USA Div. just joined by 5th UK Bde. The Allies will attack tomorrow.

Pacific: Things still look good - the feinting assets are pretty much in place now. The amphibious TFs still haven't been detected as best I can tell. No signs of significant enemy activity at the targets. The only fly in the ointment - the two upgrading carriers at Pearl are stuck at six days (that means one of them even went backwards one day!). I have absolutely no idea what's causing this. The other two carriers - Ent and York - are leaving tonight to join Hornet and Wasp, which are at Tahiti already.

[BBfanboy]

Very strange that stall in the PH dockyards. Assuming other vessels are not taking higher priority, I wonder if the repair time reporting is borked, and the repair is actually proceeding? The only way you would know is if the carriers suddenly came out of repair on the day predicted before the stall.

Did you do the Java update recently? Apparently it was a major change and there have been some reported bugs.

The only other thing I can think of is that repair of devices like guns and radar has its own timeline separate from the upgrade, and that timeline is not part of the initial repair time report when the ship first goes into the shipyard.

[Cribtop]

CR, with him piling into the Bay of Bengal, methinks you are going to catch him by surprise in the Pacific. [&o]

[Canoerebel]

9/14/42

Bay of Bengal and Burma: Big air/sea/land battle rages today. Both sides take losses; both sides experience some bad luck; both sides get in licks. Overall, the Allies come out ahead - possibly way ahead - but more about that later.

Sea Clash 1: The Japanese bring in a bombardment TF, led by four BBs, that tangles with Ching Lee's Vincennes TF. Lee gets surprise and roughs up the enemy. All enemy ships are set afire, with BB Ise taking a torp, CL Tenyru sinking, and three DD taking heavy damage. CL Mauritius takes one torp and is the hardest hit Allied ship. (The Allies were fortunate, no doubt, that the enemy's missions was bombardment rather than surface combat.)

Sea Clash 2: The Vincennes TF flees the hex, unfortunately, and tangles with a five-DD TF. Vincennes goes down as does one enemy DD.

Bombardment of the Airfield: Hyuga, Yamashiro and Fuso hit the airfield, somehow managing to avoid altercations with other Allied TFs in the hex, and do moderate damage including the destruction of 17 planes and damaging many more. This reduces Allied CAP, which will have an effect later in the day.

Sea Clash 3: The three IJN BBs tangle with the New Orleans/Helena TF. All three IJN ships take multiple hits, with Hyuga set afire. No damage to the Allies.

Sea Clash 4: The RN weighs in and scores the most lopsided victory of the day. BB Revenge, CA Cornwall and CL Dauntless face an imposing fource of four IJN CA and two CL. CAs Kako and Kinugasa and CLs Abukuma and Kuma are confirmed sunk and CA Aoba has "heavy fires/heavy damage." The only casualty for the Allies is DD Decoy with HF/HD (though she can still make 23 knots and will flee the scene). It has been rare, in my experience, to see a relatively small Allied TF flagged by an R-Class BB take on and decisively beat a big IJN cruiser TF.

Air Battles: Then begin the air battles, which for some reason aren't nearly as big as I would have expected. This is fortunate, because Allied CAP acted very squirrely. For one or two strikes, there was no CAP over some Allied combat ships a hex from Akyab. Then ALL CAP was over those TFs, leaving Akyab and it's shipping completely naked. The Allies took some hard licks - CL Nashville sunk, CA Pensacola with two TTs (Fires/Heavy Damage) and CL Maurtius two more TT (also F/HD). Allied CAP and flak scores a fair number of kills on the day, so that the Allies come out on top on that scoreboard.

IJ Loss Reconciliation. Confirmed sunk: Two CA (Kinugasa and Kako); three CL (Tenyru, Abukuma and Kuma), one DD. Very Heavy Damage: CA Aoba, two DDs. Yard Time Required: BB Ise and BB Kyuga. The Japanese lose 16 fighters (4 Tojo, 12 Zero) and 19 bombers (including 9 Kates).

Allied Loss Reconciliation. Sunk: CA Vincennes; CL Nashville. Very Heavy Damage: CA Pensacola; CL Mauritius; DD Decoy. Yard Time Required: CL Helena. In addition, 13 Allied fighters are destroyed a-2-a with 17 destroyed on the ground.

Burma on the Ground: 41st USA Div. and 5th UK Bde. rough up 4th IJA Div. in the open near Schewbo. The Allies dont' take any losses to speak of; the IJ unit loses seven squads destroyed and 158 infantry squads disabled. This division is completely isolated now, so it looks ilke it will be the third IJ division to be seriously reduced. In the hex just vacated by 4th Div., the Allies shock attack and destroy one of two arty units (55 guns and vehicles and 20 non-combat squads destroyed). The surviving unit should be destroyed tomorrow, so the Allies will have sole possession of that jungle hex.

Burma Tomorrow: If this was the climax of the Japanese attack, the Allies have won a decisive victory. If, however, the Japanese are just beginning the battle - if, for instance, Musashi and fresh enemy TFs are inbound - the battle could easily turn the other way. Tomorrow, the Allies will have five combat TFs at or moving into Akyab: New Orleans TF (now commanded by a captain with very good ratings - I'm afraid Ching Lee might have gone down with Vincennes); Cornwall/Canberra TF (commanded by Shafroth); Hobart TF; and inbound from Chittagong the Dorsetshire/Devonshire TF and a smaller Adelaide TF. These TFs are mostly replenished, so the Allies can hold the field if new and powerful enemy forces aren't in bound. I think I'll know beforehand whether more is coming: If so, John will be anxious to flip turns today (he's off from work). If not - if the battle has basically ended - he'll have suffered a pretty telling defeat and won't be very anxious about proceeding. One other thing - the mass of damaged Allied shipping has to transit waters packed with subs, so the bleeding should continue. On the flip side, Allied mines scored some hits and there are a host of Allied subs in the Andaman Sea. The two enemy carrier TFs report a total of 10 CVE, two CV (I know one is Hiyo, so Junyo is undoubtedly there too if recovered from that torp. hit awhile back) with 100 F, 115 B, 3 Aux.

NoPac: Quiet. The dot hex goes to level one tomorrow on the suppostiion that the more noise and activity everywhere, the better.

CenPac: AM Robin was "feeling out" the enemy near Kwajalein and gets sunk by a four-DD TF. The two USN CVs at Pearl? One remains at six days; the other drops one to five days. If things don't improve by tomorrow, I may appeal to the Tech department for help.

SoPac/SWPac: Lots of enemy subs around - near Melbourne, Sydney, Auckland, etc. Gonna be hard to achieve surprise for the pending operation.

[Houtje]

Wow, things coming to a boil! Well done so far. Would it be possible to send your damaged TF's north (true) to Calcutta and then west (true) to Colombo, hugging the coast as it were, to avoid his wolfpacks?

[Canoerebel]

His wolfpacks are mainly hugging the coast, so that ships moving between Akyab and Chittagong are the most exposed. For that reason, most of my damaged but high-speed-capable ships will move directly to Vizagapatnem enroute to Ceylon. He may anticipate this move and position his carriers to interdict, but I think that's relatively unlikely.