Bob Flemin' Fall Gelb AARse.....

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 5

So what would you do?

In spending an Offensive Chit the odds would be automatic on Liege but still only 5:1 on Antwerp. 7:1 on Antwerp is possible by bringing von Runsdtedt into the battle (and so not available for reorganising other units).

Without the +1 there is still the chance of this going wrong. Is this worth the Offensive Chit - and which alternative? 5:1 or 7:1?

[Centuur]

Can the French/Belgian/CW get a solid line at the Dyle river in place or not? That's the big question.

If they can, than you have to make sure you take Antwerp and the answer is therefore: "Yes".

However, if the CW and France lack the necessary movement points to get at least double stacks across the whole line, the answer is "no".

[Jagdtiger14]

Without going back and re-reading...were the Germans short corps?...or was there a bad roll vs Netherlands in this scenario?

Ok, I had to re-read...the attack on Amsterdam was all flip.

I really hate using o-chits, and not using them is one of my goals in Fall Gelb. Since using it does not make it automatic, then do not.

Realistically what Centuur writes is correct...are the Allies ready for a solid double corp line?...and what are their counter-attack possibilities if Germany fails its roll?

Perhaps here you can start a Scenario "C" = without the use of the O-Chit?[:)]

[warspite1]

Well I agree with those responses. The use of an Offensive Chit and then rolling a 1 is just rubbish.

The simple fact is - the French do not have enough strength in depth (or more importantly the movement allowance) to allow the Allies to get a solid Antwerp-Metz line.

Therefore, if the Germans do not spend the Chit - and take their time, the Allies are not out of the woods - and the Germans still have the Chit available to hurt the French.

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 5

The Belgian set-up remains the same - two infantry corps in Antwerp and a cavalry corps in Liege.

The 11th Motorised Corps is still railed to Krakow.

Poland
The Germans cannot achieve the complete surrounding of Warsaw/Lodz due to zone of control and weather issues. The plan is therefore a further methodical reduction of the Polish defences - and to further this, the destruction of the Tarnow cavalry and the capture of Poznan. This will be achieved by a pincer attack by:

Northern Command:
33rd, 35th and 37th Infantry Corps

Army Group von Leeb:
10th and 17th Infantry Corps with the 1st Motorised Corps attached.

The remaining units of both commands begin to put pressure on Lodz.

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 5

A shortage of units is definitely an issue for the Germans at this point. What is left of von Rundstedt and von Bock's forces are thrown into ensure that Liege will be an automatic and that German forces are best placed for any Allied counter-attack. The Garrison unit for Denmark will need to wait....

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 5

Two automatic attacks are made:

- Poznan (once again it would be madness for the Poles to contest)
- Liege

and both cities fall.

The Luftwaffe re-base their three Me-109's to the front line.

[warspite1]

Scenario A
Sep/Oct 1939
Impulse: 5

Big question now. Do the Germans use von Rundstedt to reorganise a Stuka, an ARM and a MECH or perhaps an ENG and an INF instead of the aircraft?

The Offensive Chit for this turn would be gone but if the weather holds these units could unhinge the French perhaps?

[Jagdtiger14]

Ok, here I am very surprised. I thought we were debating whether to attack Antwerp with or without using an O-chit. I didn't know NOT using an O-chit meant no attack on Antwerp this impulse at all. I think this is highly dangerous as the Allies can now basically hold the Dyle and the possession of Rotterdam has become useless. Also, the weather could turn and this fair weather is wasted.

The purpose of Rotterdam is to take Antwerp on the DOW impulse.

If you make no attack on Antwerp, then on the Allied impulse I would move the Belgian units out of Antwerp (replace them with the CW units currently at sea...see if you can add a division if available). I would move the two best French units into Brussels with HQ Billotte in the hex just west of Brussels (would be nice if you have a division for Brussels too). Get the other French HQ closer and ready to replace Billotte.

I would rather use an o-chit and make the attack now, than make no attack on Antwerp this impulse at all. I think you are playing everything too conservatively...but perhaps that is the result of using the 1d10? By "too conservatively" I mean there are other units out there that would have been available for this attack (3 air factors from the He111H in Poland, and I think too much air was used on Amsterdam). As I mentioned, it may be the case of using the 1d10 that has caused this. What I see is that on Antwerp you can get 35 ground factors (basically a 4-1) then add what ever air and I think you can get a 5-1 plus HQ support. On the 2d10 that would mean rolling a 10 or higher would be perfection (23), and no chance of the dreaded 14 result. I would do this with not using an O-chit.

If you are going to use an O-chit to cross the Dyle, then why attack Netherlands at all?

[warspite1]

I am trying to work out the possibilities for a Fall Gelb - both with the Germans getting the rub of the green and then with the Allies doing so.

This isn't "what happens if every impulse was Fine and the Germans only throw 10 on land attack" or "what happens if the weather is rubbish and the Germans throw nothing but 1's". We both know how those scenarios turn out.

As has been pointed out, in terms of US Entry this tactic can be really penal. Given that, if I were to carry this out I really want to know that it is not solely dependent on every throw of the dice going in my favour - cos its not going to happen.

I was worried about not attacking - but for a completely different reason to you it seems. As the German player I would actually welcome the French doing as you suggest. They simply do not have enough units to forge a continuous line. You shove three French units into Brussels (and guard the hex to the southwest) that is a potential godsend to the Germans.

Under cover of three quality fighters next impulse they can use their offensive chit to try and wipe out those French in Brussels. That's a big gap opened up in their OOB. The CW/Belgians run the risk of being sidelined as the Germans race for French border. Georges has already been used to try and get three of the Reserves into play. If not, the move into Brussels would surely be a non-starter anyway?

Sure, an alternative is to take the chance that Antwerp will fall, but if it does not (and there is no +1) there is also more than a good chance of further disorganisation/loss. The German turn grounds to a halt and they haven't taken Antwerp anyway.

I probably do play conservatively (or just stupidly) but I just do not understand how you think I have used too many units in Poland. With your set-up, one bad dice throw right at the outset and that concludes the Polish front for the entire turn - no resources (or maybe one) for Germany and Poland gets her reinforcements. von Leeb is simply too weak to do more than turn over a couple of units - and they are not going to be attacking anymore.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying you are wrong or I am right (the only judge of that in this game is the dice god) but it seems we have two incredibly different styles of play.

[Jagdtiger14]

I am not at all looking at what is happening in this AAR as BEST case vs WORST case, although you do have two scenarios based on one with better rolls and one with sucky rolls at the point in which you split the two scenarios. The way I am looking at this is what is best move for each side to make under what ever circumstances occur (of course my opinion can be severely debated, and not necessarily the best or for sure not the best informed since I have no idea of many details of what is available and what is not).

As for Poland, I have stated my opinion many times...but I was looking specifically at the He111H.

I think most veteran WiF players would advise the Allies to defend the Dyle as best as they can with the most powerful units available. Of course, I would expect the Germans to get Brussels and or Antwerp using an O-chit (use of O-chit to cross the Dyle = failure for the secondary objective of my version of Fall Gelb)...of course this could be mitigated by not having to use a second O-chit on the way to or on Paris.

I dont know much about the 1d10, but under the 2d10 the odds are very good Germany takes Antwerp without an O-chit...I forget which min. result is needed to kill two units...is it an 18?...if so, all that is needed is not rolling a 2,3, or 4...5-20 takes it.

There are as many styles of play as there are players[:)]...I just want to lay down a marker here to be able to debate a decision that varies from one I would have made.

[Barbuesque]

I'd go along with Jadtiger and say that you need to try to cross the Dyle on this impulse, before the allies can establish themselves on the Dyle.

You can get between +10 (72% chances of success) and +14(94%), with ground strikes on surprise + HQ support on Antwerp without using an Ochit. You won't get any better by letting the allies fortify the Dyle line, quite the opposite.

Edit: In fact there is little point in declaring war on Belgium if you don't have a way to cross the Dyle.

[Orm]

With 1d10 table it was 60% chance of capturing Antwerp and I thought the Germans would make this attack.

I do not understand where you get so many positive modifiers from in the Antwerp attack. 4:1 is +8 and HQ support for another +2 makes the attack +10 so in order to reach the 19 needed to capture the city you need to roll 9 or higher. Hardly a guaranteed attack. What am I missing?

[Centuur]

You are not missing anything here. With 2D10 you get a +10.

If Germany attacks Belgium, it can't look for an automatic victory for taking Antwerp (except when the Chit is used).

Facts are:

The French, Belgians and the CW can get two corps a hex behind the Dyle River (if the CW has two Corps at sea). There are enough French units to cover anything South of Brussels. So you are getting a CW stack in Antwerp, the Belgians in Brussels and stacks of French south of this. That's not good at all (even with the Belgians in Brussels, which is a weak spot in the line. But perhaps weather will turn poor and Gort can assist with support, together with some British planes).

This means that Germany hasn't got a choice at all. It needs to attack Antwerp, no matter what. If the attack fails, the chit is probably needed to crack the Dyle river line sometimes later. But if Germany doesn't attack, it needs the same chit to break that same line.

Can Germany handle the losses if things really go wrong? Yes it can, especially where this attack is concerned, since not attacking will mean more losses for Germany when crossing the Dyle River.

So attack and see what happens. Germany can wait to use the chit and can avoid the use of it to break the Dyle river line if the attack succeeds...

[Jagdtiger14]

+10 assuming no ground strike flips and/or no ground support.

[warspite1]

Thanks for all your comments – I think it’s time to wrap this up as I have pretty much what I need from it in terms of getting clear in my mind what is required to make it work, and conversely, what can cause the wheels to fall off – and the consequences of both.

It is comforting to know that, like all WIF strategies and operations, there simply is no guarantee of anything and at the end of the day it comes down to what you/your opponent throws (weather, land combat, naval search, US Entry, air to air, ground-strike, turn length), what your opponent does, and how you react to the various challenges from both that are thrown at you.

As far as the initial premise is concerned, in fairness to Jagdtiger14 my start positions deviated from his (albeit not massively – the 3-factor Heinkel was probably the only real bone of contention) but the bottom line is, if the stated aim (and that by which the plan is judged) is to take France (and certainly Belgium) without using an O-chit, then the throw for the all-important Antwerp hex is a crap shoot same as it would be if trying this at a later date. i.e without an O-Chit the Germans are struggling to get 4:1 on Antwerp and they may (but may not) have ground-struck the Belgian units therein. These odds could improve (HQ Support) or be lowered (weather).

Like most things in WIF, if the dice gods are on your side I can see the benefits of this approach but if one (any) of a multitude of things go wrong, there are some nasty consequences – not least US Entry. You pays your money and you takes your choice.

[AllenK]

Good AAR and well surmised. Thanks Warspite1.

[Jagdtiger14]

Thanks Warspite for conducting this AAR!

What I learned was: Thank God none of us in my face to face group ever insisted on using the 1d10. I think 1d10 makes Fall Gelb tougher....and probably everything tougher as you are penalized severely for taking risks (thus also less fun). The goal for 1d10 seems to be to make everything automatic. That is not the way people who play 2d10 look at things(many battles are conducted at 55% chance).

I disagree vehemently over Antwerp being a crap shoot. Not only the He111H in Poland, but Amsterdam had way too much air applied to it. All this would have made Antwerp close to automatic.

Concerning Poland: There were some other units I disagreed with (Mech, Alpine), but I wanted this AAR to take off and not quibble about it...this was your test, not mine.

End result...assuming the taking of Antwerp this impulse...look where you are vis-à-vis France (the real war) compared to starting this in M/J'40, or maybe the first decent weather impulse in M/A'40. Primary objective: Take France out by the end of M/J; secondary objective don't use your O-chits to do it. You were on your way to complete both. Congratulations!

[Mayhemizer_slith]

Thank you warspite1 for this very helpful and informative AAR!