Tyronec vs BrianG. 12.03

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: joelmar

ORIGINAL: Tyronec
Yes, was thinking 1 German, 1 Romanian and 1 Italian armies plus a Panzer Corps but should have a better idea of what the Soviets are going to defend with in a few turns.

Get all your mountain divisions in one German army, you will need each one of those in the Georgian mountains
Get your rumanian cavalry together.
Get most of your FBD's in Caucasus to go into the Georgian valleys through Sukhumi

panzers can be useful for a while, but they will soon become superfluous. Cavalry is good enough to flip hexes

Those are the keys

1. Kill the rail west from Baku you don't need the MNT Divisions.
2. He has the Rumanian Cav together already.
3. Only need two FBD's at most in Caucasus. Only need two when repairing across a river

[joelmar]

HLYA:
1. Kill the rail west from Baku you don't need the MNT Divisions.

You mean going through Grozny, Makhachkala. Might be possible, seems a little hard for me against a good Soviet defense and I think you will need mountain divisions anyway, even more so if the Soviets have the foresight to bring all their own remaining mountain divisions in the area.

I'm not saying it's not possible, but it seems to me a tough choice, almost a gambit and one which is quite easy to counter at that. There are other possibilities.

BTW, why not mountain divisions in Caucasus, aren't mountains the best place for them to fight? And furthermore, they are not really a good match to standard infantry in non-mountain terrain.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: joelmar

HLYA:
1. Kill the rail west from Baku you don't need the MNT Divisions.

You mean going through Grozny, Makhachkala. Might be possible, seems a little hard for me against a good Soviet defense and I think you will need mountain divisions anyway, even more so if the Soviets have the foresight to bring all their own remaining mountain divisions in the area.

I'm not saying it's not possible, but it seems to me a tough choice, almost a gambit and one which is quite easy to counter at that. There are other possibilities.

BTW, why not mountain divisions in Caucasus, aren't mountains the best place for them to fight? And furthermore, they are not really a good match to standard infantry in non-mountain terrain.

So far there is nothing that shows me this is not possible against the Soviet in this game. The scales have titled greatly towards the Germans with each passing turn. I await the final deposition of forces before Baku and Tyronecs time table to get there and at the moment the way lies pretty clear.

As for the counter to this it is getting harder by the moment and on top of that the Soviets can counter at their own pearl. At the moment the battle up North above Stalingrad should be his focus. Choose wisely.

As for the mountain units in mountains of course they are the best units. Anyone not realizing that is an idiot. But why fight a battle at all in the mountains? Cut them off and let them wilt and the regular Rumanians/Germans can clean them up at their own pace afterwards.

“He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.” – Sun Tzu

[tyronec]

Tyronec has some hexes NW of Stalingrad that BrianG can flood across based on current snapshots. Along with some Regiments that can be pushed aside on the front line even behind major rivers. (Regiments will retreat over hold when attacked) If Tyronec isn't careful he could end up with a fiasco behind his Stalingrad troops like you had in the Caucasus because we all know BrianG loves to FLOOD in.

Stalingrad is always the key to the Caucasus. Just need to make sure the rail going South to the Caucasus is also cut at the same time behind Stalingrad, that is the first key. Once that is done the Germans just need to rush to Baku where the rail to the West Caucasus is cut as the 2nd key. Once that is done the rest of the West Caucasus will wilt on the vine as the Germans assualt Baku. With the current state of the Soviets, and what I see on the snapshots provided, I would say this has a very good chance of success with the forces involved barring any outlier if Tyronec pursues this. Based on what I see I give it a 91.5% chance of working at current snapshots. Will update my prediction when getting closer to Baku, BrianG could always throw in those outliers ;-P

Am assuming you mean something like this ?
Is not going to happen this turn because the MUD extends 3 hexes South of the Don, but something to watch out for if I don't get those units cleared away.

Am surprised that you think I could get to Baku in reasonable time (during '42 ?), I count 68 rail hexes to Baku and there could be hold ups from Soviet resistance or partisans. Once you get to Grozny looks like 1-2 hexes a turn terrain. Was thinking I would need to take Baku to make it worth the effort but as you point out, cut that rail line and the rest of the Caucasus falls.
Maybe need more Allies to guard those long open flanks.

Already have most of the Mountain Infantry in the right place and will rail the rest down soon.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: tyronec
Was thinking I would need to take Baku to make it worth the effort but as you point out, cut that rail line and the rest of the Caucasus falls.

Why would cutting the rail make any difference? Baku is a permanent supply source and can supply everything south of the rail cut? I take it here you mean the Caspian line?

If you want to cut the line south of the mountains then you need to get over the mountains?

[tyronec]

Cut anywhere on this line and the forces to the West are without supplies. Taking them from the North or West could be hard work.

[joelmar]

@HLYA

As for the mountain units in mountains of course they are the best units. Anyone not realizing that is an idiot. But why fight a battle at all in the mountains? Cut them off and let them wilt and the regular Rumanians/Germans can clean them up at their own pace afterwards.

Honestly I'm not following you there... are you aware that Baku is a permanent supply source and that the rail you need to cut is the one going through the mountains towards Georgia? It might have changed in some patch since you last got there. Cutting the rail between Grozny and Astrakhan won't help, it's the Baku-Tbilissi line that you must get.

Bottom line, no unit in Georgia will wilt if that's not done. And you really need a strong force of mountain divisions to get there.

[Telemecus]

ORIGINAL: tyronec

Cut anywhere on this line and the forces to the West are without supplies. Taking them from the North or West could be hard work.

If you mean fighting your way east from Grozny across the Terek river through Dagestan and along the Caspian coast to take it at the eastern end that is even more difficult. That is precisely the place where you cannot repair rail fast enough. Precisely the lines the soviet side will be fortifying against. And the very narrowest front between the mountains and the Caspian to go along. Only worth it if you think you can get Baku as well.

There is the option of the Armavir valley through the mountains. Only 3 mountain hexes to cross in the WitE map which can be crossed by mountain divisions in one turn if undefended. And that would leaving you putting the rail in ZOC near Tblisi. Or simply rushing mountain divisions along a wide front assuming the soviet side does not have enough units to defend. All seem better prospects to me than going to within 40 miles and not getting Baku itself? Apart from Georgia and the West Caucasus, and Baku itself, there is not a lot of manpower there. So you would be capturing a lot of semi-desert.

[joelmar]

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

There is the option of the Armavir valley through the mountains. Only 3 mountain hexes to cross in the WitE map which can be crossed by mountain divisions in one turn if undefended. And that would leaving you putting the rail in ZOC near Tblisi. Or simply rushing mountain divisions along a wide front assuming the soviet side does not have enough units to defend. All seem better prospects to me than going to within 40 miles and not getting Baku itself? Apart from Georgia and the West Caucasus, and Baku itself, there is not a lot of manpower there. So you would be capturing a lot of semi-desert.

I see a clear benefit in the conquest of the Georgian valleys even if you don't manage to get Baku, and that benefit is the use of Georgia as a kind of Novorossisk or Crimea in reverse for the Germans if the game doesn't end in 1942 by VP conditions. Thorns in the side of the Soviet.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: tyronec

Tyronec has some hexes NW of Stalingrad that BrianG can flood across based on current snapshots. Along with some Regiments that can be pushed aside on the front line even behind major rivers. (Regiments will retreat over hold when attacked) If Tyronec isn't careful he could end up with a fiasco behind his Stalingrad troops like you had in the Caucasus because we all know BrianG loves to FLOOD in.

Stalingrad is always the key to the Caucasus. Just need to make sure the rail going South to the Caucasus is also cut at the same time behind Stalingrad, that is the first key. Once that is done the Germans just need to rush to Baku where the rail to the West Caucasus is cut as the 2nd key. Once that is done the rest of the West Caucasus will wilt on the vine as the Germans assualt Baku. With the current state of the Soviets, and what I see on the snapshots provided, I would say this has a very good chance of success with the forces involved barring any outlier if Tyronec pursues this. Based on what I see I give it a 91.5% chance of working at current snapshots. Will update my prediction when getting closer to Baku, BrianG could always throw in those outliers ;-P

Am assuming you mean something like this ?
Is not going to happen this turn because the MUD extends 3 hexes South of the Don, but something to watch out for if I don't get those units cleared away.

Am surprised that you think I could get to Baku in reasonable time (during '42 ?), I count 68 rail hexes to Baku and there could be hold ups from Soviet resistance or partisans. Once you get to Grozny looks like 1-2 hexes a turn terrain. Was thinking I would need to take Baku to make it worth the effort but as you point out, cut that rail line and the rest of the Caucasus falls.
Maybe need more Allies to guard those long open flanks.

Already have most of the Mountain Infantry in the right place and will rail the rest down soon.

This all depends on how much BrianG puts down here and how much damage you do north of Stalingrad. The more he puts down here the better for you since your offensive to take the Cities up north will benefit. If he doesnt put stuff down here then cherry pick away. So far it does not look like he has put things in the way. I would recon my azz off to see if it is open all the way to Baku this turn. If it is open I would go for it just because I am ballzy as hell and really isn't that difficult once you know what to do in phases. If you do do this do it of your own accord not what I have been typing because I have done this on more than a few occasions. I can 100% tell you to stay laser focused on Baku. Don't get drawn into a fight in the mountains or further to the west. Follow your railroad track straight to Baku. There are two places the Soviets will defend along that track that is difficult and once past those 2 you are golden. The sooner you cut or at a minimum be near the 4-6 rail hexes coming out of Baku the better. Once the cut is done all the units to the west in the Caucasus will wilt.

If you take two FBD's you are guaranteed 4 hex conversions every turn. Which is 40 hexes in 10 turns. I usually give myself 3 to 3.5 months to accomplish this.

Check list
1. Stalingrad taken and rail cut to the east of Stalingrad at Baskunchak area
2. 2 FBD's and associated construction workers for rail repair going into the Caucasus
3. Get next to Makhachkalq as quickly as possible preferably the woods to the SW
4. Ensure 100% flank security
5. Stay laser focused on Baku and understand that this is a multistage offense. If you get sidetracked for any reason this will fail. Don't be shy about calling it off if not possible. It really is all about supporting your Northern offensive. Look at is as a positive either way.

**You will have to take a few Mntn hexes to the SE of Grozny for rail to pass. Also the defense of high fort value hexes could change all of this from the new patch of the city hexes you have to go through. Make sure you have enough Engineers and Inf to get the job done quickly.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: joelmar

@HLYA

As for the mountain units in mountains of course they are the best units. Anyone not realizing that is an idiot. But why fight a battle at all in the mountains? Cut them off and let them wilt and the regular Rumanians/Germans can clean them up at their own pace afterwards.

Honestly I'm not following you there... are you aware that Baku is a permanent supply source and that the rail you need to cut is the one going through the mountains towards Georgia? It might have changed in some patch since you last got there. Cutting the rail between Grozny and Astrakhan won't help, it's the Baku-Tbilissi line that you must get.

Bottom line, no unit in Georgia will wilt if that's not done. And you really need a strong force of mountain divisions to get there.

Sure it will wilt. Baku is the key

[joelmar]

@HLYA

Yes, I totally get your idea and that was what I thought you meant at first, I just had a doubt.

First, I 100% agree that what the Soviets send down there to defend won't be available up north. But the same could also be said of the forces that you send to east Caucasus. And you need to send in a sizable force of good quality if you are serious about it.

Second, ballsy as hell or not, to do that, and you mention it yourself, you need help from the Soviets, no reinforcements and no dangerous situations on your flanks. And even if Caucasus is bare of Soviet units to begin with, there is time enough to reinforce through the Caspian and dig in solidly if the Soviet so decides. Against a decided Soviet, you by example, I would expect to end up banging my head against the wall in that bottleneck leading up to Baku... and even more so without mountain divisions to create flanking threats...

And if the Soviets become serious about it too, even a sizable force will soon find going harder if not impossible even against a force that is not quite as powerful, and will find itself unable to accomplish anything at all either in Baku or in Georgia.

That said... if the Soviets don't care about Georgia and Baku and leave the way open? Sure, why not, it's a gift. But it's a long shot and that's why I said it's a gambit.

[sillyflower]

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

ORIGINAL: tyronec


Yes, was thinking 1 German, 1 Romanian and 1 Italian armies plus a Panzer Corps but should have a better idea of what the Soviets are going to defend with in a few turns.

As you know, I went for the 'Caucasus 1st then S'grad' approach.The main difficulty I had taking the Caucasus was not the defences per se, but a combo of Brian's skillful insertions (mainly using weak kamikaze tank xxxs) to cut the supply lines and he seemed to get lucky with partisans which so often cut the lines he could not otherwise reach.

I agree with Chaos that Brian that Brian is unlikely to have the troops to stop a strong thrust but you would need to be able to manage the problems better than I did until the later stages of my O. However, S'grad first will probably make it easier for you in the Caucasus as it looks like you will have time for both.

Tyronec has some hexes NW of Stalingrad that BrianG can flood across based on current snapshots. Along with some Regiments that can be pushed aside on the front line even behind major rivers. (Regiments will retreat over hold when attacked) If Tyronec isn't careful he could end up with a fiasco behind his Stalingrad troops like you had in the Caucasus because we all know BrianG loves to FLOOD in.

Stalingrad is always the key to the Caucasus. Just need to make sure the rail going South to the Caucasus is also cut at the same time behind Stalingrad, that is the first key. Once that is done the Germans just need to rush to Baku where the rail to the West Caucasus is cut as the 2nd key.

Oh dear, HLYA. Was my effort so bad to qualify as a fiasco[&:]?. I would only have put it as high as a temporary shambles[;)] because I cleared the Caucasus in time to head north and get the remaining 260VPs to get my win. (The game was alt VC but Brian subsequently persuaded me to carry on anyway).

I also went for Krasnodar and Novorossiysk for 3 reasons:

1 Preventing attacks on the rail to Baku from there

2 Getting a supply line from the port helped with supplies

3 It encouraged Brian to keep most of his forces in that area, rather than defending the road to Baku. They then died pointlessly when the railway west from Baku was cut.

The distance to Baku is no obstacle with 2 FBDs, and a 3rd if you want to take get supplies from N'port. 10 turns will get the rail-head well under 20 MPs to Baku. Even if Mr T fails to take Baku itself, there will still be a lot of dead soviet units, Baku itself can be quarantined easily, even if Astrakhan is not taken. The axis front line will be a lot shorter with more troops for other offensives in the summer/autumn.

[joelmar]

The other thing is it depends how much VP you need and what you think you can accomplish. In fact, we are talking about 2 very different objectives. You are talking about supporting your operations in the north with a gambit, I am talking about making sure of taking by force objectives in the south that means we don't need Kazan by example to get to 290 VP (3 points for urban vs 3 points for cities in Georgia).

Operationally, as mentionned by Telemecus, going through the mountains with a mountain army takes advantage of the difficulty for the Soviets to hold such a large area with a small number of units vs holding just the Baku area and the vulnerability of the rail in the valleys. So it gives leverage to the German mountain units and makes Soviet defense difficult, a bit like the rumanian cavalry racing through the Caucasian steppe. And if the Soviets try to defend Georgia, everything they send in there is not defending or fortyfying Baku which makes it still possible to capture later on.

Anyway, we are in this process right now. We'll see if we can get to Baku or not. But Georgia will fall no doubt and will need some work to take back from us.

[Telemecus]

I think it is a bad idea to make comparisons with old versions precisely because the rail supply modifier penalty was so drastically increased. So whereas in old versions of the game Baku was at least a regular possibility, now it has ceased to be. Examples are the games of Stef78 where he could take Baku in old versions, but just found his supply disappearing at the Terek river after the change in the rail supply modifier.

Remember Baku is further in rail repair than the Volga and with absolutely no chance of loops to protect from partisan supply with less manpower to capture. So the question is why would you choose Baku over the Volga? Shortening lines might be one answer. I would rate taking more manpower as a bigger gain.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: sillyflower

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

ORIGINAL: sillyflower




As you know, I went for the 'Caucasus 1st then S'grad' approach.The main difficulty I had taking the Caucasus was not the defences per se, but a combo of Brian's skillful insertions (mainly using weak kamikaze tank xxxs) to cut the supply lines and he seemed to get lucky with partisans which so often cut the lines he could not otherwise reach.

I agree with Chaos that Brian that Brian is unlikely to have the troops to stop a strong thrust but you would need to be able to manage the problems better than I did until the later stages of my O. However, S'grad first will probably make it easier for you in the Caucasus as it looks like you will have time for both.

Tyronec has some hexes NW of Stalingrad that BrianG can flood across based on current snapshots. Along with some Regiments that can be pushed aside on the front line even behind major rivers. (Regiments will retreat over hold when attacked) If Tyronec isn't careful he could end up with a fiasco behind his Stalingrad troops like you had in the Caucasus because we all know BrianG loves to FLOOD in.

Stalingrad is always the key to the Caucasus. Just need to make sure the rail going South to the Caucasus is also cut at the same time behind Stalingrad, that is the first key. Once that is done the Germans just need to rush to Baku where the rail to the West Caucasus is cut as the 2nd key.

Oh dear, HLYA. Was my effort so bad to qualify as a fiasco[&:]?. I would only have put it as high as a temporary shambles[;)] because my O succeeded in time to head north and get the remaining 260VPs to get my win. (The game was alt VC but Brian subsequently persuaded me to carry on anyway).

I also went for Krasnodar and Novorossiysk for 3 reasons:

1 Preventing attacks on the rail to Baku from there

2 Getting a supply line from the port helped with supplies

3 It encouraged Brian to keep most of his forces in that area, rather than defending the road to Baku.

The distance to Baku is no obstacle with 2 FBDs, and a 3rd if you want to take get supplies from N'port. 10 turns will get the rail-head well under 20 MPs to Baku. Even if Mr T fails to take Baku itself, there will still be a lot of dead soviet units, Baku itself can be quarantined easily, even if Astrakhan is not taken. The axis front line will be a lot shorter with more troops for other offensives in the summer/autumn.

You did very well on recovery Sillyflower, a weaker German player would have thrown in the towel Without those delays you would have finished even faster. I also think you were facing a much stronger Soviet Army from the comparison and a Soviet Army extremely close to your supply railroad. Tyronec's game has neither at the moment.

The German has to have ballz, like what you had, and take gambits like this. The prize at the end is HUGE if this can be pulled off. I have seen on average a "minimum" of 25+ divisions surrender when this is done. Normally much much more. Players have to realize 42 is about meat grinding with capture of cities a close second. The Baku strike has both along with the thrill of a rollercoaster ride.

[HardLuckYetAgain]

It all depends now on the deposition of Soviet forces further south which is still unknown up to this time.

[joelmar]

ORIGINAL:HLYA

The German has to have ballz, like what you had, and take gambits like this. The prize at the end is HUGE if this can be pulled off. I have seen on average a "minimum" of 25+ divisions surrender when this is done. Normally much much more. Players have to realize 42 is about meat grinding with capture of cities a close second. The Baku strike has both along with the thrill of a rollercoaster ride.

Gambits usually have huge gains but you have to accept huge risks too. And the German ballz can grow only as far as the Soviet lets them grow... or may end up being cut clean at the base too. But to each his own [:D]

[HardLuckYetAgain]

ORIGINAL: joelmar

ORIGINAL:HLYA

The German has to have ballz, like what you had, and take gambits like this. The prize at the end is HUGE if this can be pulled off. I have seen on average a "minimum" of 25+ divisions surrender when this is done. Normally much much more. Players have to realize 42 is about meat grinding with capture of cities a close second. The Baku strike has both along with the thrill of a rollercoaster ride.

Gambits usually have huge gains but you have to accept huge risks too. And the German ballz can grow only as far as the Soviet lets them grow... or may end up being cut clean at the base too. But to each his own [:D]

Interesting. Personally I have faith in Tyronecs ability in WITE never to have his ballz cut off at the base. Tyronec is more than capable of seeing a threat when they are present and would never fall into that trap. As for letting the Germans grow big ballz.... Well I can only say the Soviets are in no position not to let that happen. Let the growth continue!

[joelmar]

HLYA
Interesting. Personally I have faith in Tyronecs ability in WITE never to have his ballz cut off at the base. Tyronec is more than capable of seeing a threat when they are present and would never fall into that trap. As for letting the Germans grow big ballz.... Well I can only say the Soviets are in no position not to let that happen. Let the growth continue!

I wasn't talking about someone in particular More general game philosophy. IMO one can take a gambit when the situation calls for it, when he has a huge advantage or is in a desperate situation. Ok, the image of the balls cut clean was a bit extreme, but what I meant is that an operation that needs sizable assets and gets no result is a loss in my mind. So a gambit to me is not only when you may get your balls cut, but also when you might make an effort and reap no reward.

But I agree Tyronec is quite capable of handling the situation. I also agree that he seems to clearly have the initiative in this game and is in position to keep it for a long while yet. So the gambit you propose may work for him. In fact, I'll be quite interested to see how it goes if he tries it.