MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


The NAV could have gone out to the North Atlantic to try to flush out the German SUBs, but I didn't want to risk them getting lucky and killing more convoys. It isn't needed anywhere else. The Germans and Italians haven't got anything left to throw at the pipelines this turn.

The Atlantic fleet has no CV at this time. There are only 6 on the map, and they are in the Pacific, with a good chunk heading for India. It's early in the game, and I haven't even put the Langley on the table yet. But don't worry, the Americans got a bump of 25 BP this turn, from 31 to 56.

Thats just it, though. The allies have the long term economic advantage, however they can't afford to just fritter it away on side shows. The Mariner did 1 PP to Germany. If it (or a bolo) had been sitting in the 0 box you would've saved more $ in lost convoy points by burning up 4 surprise points. You could've flown it into the 1 box so that it would be in the 0 box the next turn. Even if Germany is going to take a land, it shouldn't be surprising to see Italy take combine to take another shot at the convoys anyway. Heck I would've flown one plane to 1 box and 1 to the 0 box to cover them for the rest of the turn.

Well, at the time the Germans and Italians attacked, these planes were not within range of the North Atlantic. Even if they were, the results would have been similar. Instead of 11 convoys destroyed, it would have been 8 (assuming the use of 4 Surprise Points to select the combat type . . . the Axis had 10 Surprise Points to spend.

And, if I flew them there now, the Germans could take a chance as the non-phasing side. If I don't fly them there now, the Germans can't do that. Also, the Italians have too much to do on land right now to take a Combined action. Or, at least, they did (and I think they still do). At this point in the turn, I need to try to get it to end.

And, also:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

I ment on the impulse(s) that they (the Bolos and the Mariner) were used to Strat bomb. But what is done is done, I hope the CW was able to supply all her factories.

I'm big enough to admit when I'm wrong, and I was wrong here with the NAV, at least. I still think it would have been dangerous at the time, but I didn't expect to use another Italian Combined Action. I guess you could consider this a "bad Intel report".

So, as feared, the turn didn't end. In fact, since impulse #7, these were the End of Turn Rolls:

7: End of Turn Roll: 4 (10%)
8: End of Turn Roll: 9 (20%)
9: End of Turn Roll: 6 (40%)
10: End of Turn Roll: 10 (40%)
11: End of Turn Roll: 8 (60%)
12: End of Turn Roll: ? (60%)

As the Italians, I looked at what needed to be done, and I decided I needed to shift 3 more SUBs from La Spezia to Gibraltar. Since they all have a range of 2 or 3, they were doing no good sitting in Italy. In Iraq, until (or if) I get the overseas supply route set up next turn, there isn't a lot left to do, and a Combined Action gives the Italians 3 Air Missions instead of the 1 they get from a Land Action. So, I took the Combined. I'm not laying "blame" here, but I probably wouldn't have considered it very much if you hadn't mentioned it, so from the heart of Italy, I thank you. From the heart of the Allies, I thumb my nose at you. [;)]

Here's why. The U-boats tried it again in the North Atlantic . . . and the Allies found themselves in the same horrible situation, with the Axis having a little less firepower . . . but again with 11 Surprise Points to spend. This looks bad for the CW economy, indeed. [:(] The top shot shows what is in the North Atlantic, and the bottom shot shows what the Axis chose to fight.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

I don't like that out-of-supply Red Army stack at the north end of the Ukraine line. One lucky groundstrike on the corps and the Germans move an HQ to put that sector fully in supply and they're across the river in the north, too.

Problem is, I don't see much as can be done about it right now.

The Germans would have to rail an HQ to the area. They haven't got a face-up HQ anywhere on this front. Nor do they have the ability to Ground Strike that target. They started the impulse OOS, so I just left them there, not wanting to disorganize them and put someone else OOS in their place.

[Red Prince]

The terrible results . . . the convoy chain is broken. I suppose one benefit of this, if you can call it that, is that the Allies can recall most of their convoys to base at the end of this turn, and then reset the entire chain late in the turn (or mid-turn) during J/A '41.
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With the damage done, the Axis decided to abort from the combat, since there are still plenty of Allied ships in the sea area and luck cannot last forever. It just seems that it does.

[Red Prince]

Taking their cue from the Wallies, Germany decided to try its own Strategic Bombing campaign on the Baku oil resources. They obviously were not going to have a chance to be useful in an attack this turn, so it seemed to be time to do something with these LND. Both attacks were at extended range, both rolled a '5' and fell just short of the mark, so Russia lost nothing and it'll cost 0.4 Oil Points to reorganize these planes.

[Red Prince]

Well, there is good news for the Russians. I'm looking at potential attacks for the Germans, and it turns out I have fewer units available on the southern front than expected. I'll probably still be able to make the 2 attacks I want to make, but it is going to be a little tricky to set up. If things don't go well, the Soviets might be in a much better position at the start of J/A '41 than we all expected . . . provided the Allies can win the initiative.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

Things are always a mess on both sides when a turn ends. But then a new turn begins and hope springs eternal. It's sort of like spring training (for baseball).[:D]

[composer99]

That North Atlantic debacle definitely gets a [:-] or two ([:-]) from me, looking at it from an Allied perspective. ([:-])

To do all those things the CW needs to do, it needs to build units as the forces it begins play with are entirely inadequate. To do that, it needs production. To do that, it needs those convoy lines running. To do that, it absolutely must have adequate defences against Axis sub attacks.

So yes, please do return the convoys to base that aren't doing anything this turn and re-set the line next turn. But make sure to set up satisfactory defences in every sea area that those wolfpacks can hit. Others upthread have already noted what is optimal so I won't re-iterate it here.

To be fair, from an Axis perspective, two 1-10 splits in the same area are fantastic and worth cracking out some champagne wherever Doenitz' headquarters is set up. [:D][:D]

[Centuur]

It's always the same. When long turns seem to come to an end, there comes the time where a combined action is taken by the Italians or the Germans, simply due to the lack of things to do.Well: I think a terrible lesson has been learned here. That is: there should always be a CV or a plane with at least 1 air to sea factor in the zero box of sea area's with a lot of convoy points. Both sides lost a huge amount of production points in the strategic warfare here. The Germans ones got bombed and the CW ones got torpedoed... That's total war...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Things are always a mess on both sides when a turn ends. But then a new turn begins and hope springs eternal. It's sort of like spring training (for baseball).[:D]

You sound like you are a Brooklyn Dodgers fan, even though I know you are a Phillies fan. It's the fact that Philadelphia never came up with "wait 'til next year!"[:D]

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

It's always the same. When long turns seem to come to an end, there comes the time where a combined action is taken by the Italians or the Germans, simply due to the lack of things to do.Well: I think a terrible lesson has been learned here. That is: there should always be a CV or a plane with at least 1 air to sea factor in the zero box of sea area's with a lot of convoy points. Both sides lost a huge amount of production points in the strategic warfare here. The Germans ones got bombed and the CW ones got torpedoed... That's total war...

When I run the Return to Base series, I'm going to try to see if I can run the pipeline through the Canadian Coast and Denmark Straits. That cuts what the Axis can effectively reach from 4 to 3 sea areas, and those are much easier to defend than the North Atlantic. If I do that, I may have to settle for a turn or two of fewer resources getting to the UK.

I know I was "late" in starting extra convoy production. Part of that is that I've never actually before seen how devestating an attack or two like this can be, and part of it is that things started moving a little early. Believe it or not, in my notes for Strategic Plans for each nation, both the CW and USA were supposed to start building at least 1 CP per turn from the beginning of the game . . . but other things seemed to be more important. I should have stuck to the notes. [8|]

[Red Prince]

Okay, here's what I've got planned for attacks this impulse, both in the south.

The first, on Dnepropetrovsk (what a mouthful -- I'll be glad when it's conquered!), is actually going to be a Blitz attack. Both CRTs give the Russians a 30& chance to kill off an enemy in the attack, but the Blitz table gives the Kharkov MIL a 30% chance to survive, too. Since (as the Soviets) I'm counting on the turn ending either after this impulse or the next, I don't really care too much if the Germans stay organized or not. Saving 2 BP by saving the MIL seems more important right now.

The 2nd attack is going to be a Blitz (German choice). The paradrop adds a +1, and armor adds another +1, with a +2 coming from disorganized units. Assuming they win the Fractional Odds Roll, either odds column (3:1 +5, 4:1 +4) gives the same chances of survival (50% for at least 1 to survive). As the Russians, I'm going to include the Notional Unit for the 2 extra combat factors. In this case, I'm hopeing the extra 10% chance of a retreat result will be useful, but I don't have high hopes. The risk here is that if Germany wins the Fractional Odds Roll, the chances of survival drop . . . and the Germans stay organized. If the turn doesn't end after this impulse or the next, that could be a problem.
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Edit: If you're wondering why the Dnep attack is at -1, it's because it still counts as a multi-factory city even though the 2nd factory has already been railed out.

[Centuur]

Any USSR ground support possible by that long range LND? Or is there still a German FTR capable of intercepting it on the Crimean hex? The 109 is now a bomber, so he's out and the Heinkel can't reach the hex...

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Centuur

Any USSR ground support possible by that long range LND? Or is there still a German FTR capable of intercepting it on the Crimean hex? The 109 is now a bomber, so he's out and the Heinkel can't reach the hex...

After you asked this, I double-checked, and it turns out there was the possibility. It would have added an extra 10% (maybe) to the chances of survival, making the attack 56% of the way between 2:1 +5 and 3:1 +5 . . . or 8% of the way from 3:1 +4 and 4:1 +4. Honestly, I didn't think to try it because of those big + numbers. It wouldn't have done a lot to stop the success of the attack, and the Soviets are in danger of having much of their Oil cut off or unavailable.

I don't know if it would have been worth it . . . I'm halfway through the attacks . . . I'll "know" (with 20/20 hindsight) after I finish up that attack. [:)]

[Orm]

Defencive ground support to Dnepropetrovsk would be nice. If Germany can intercept the support and USSR has no availabe FTR2 for counterinterception I would fly the USSR bombers at night. I would even use a unescorted LND4 flying a night misson to support Dnepropetrovsk.

In the other attack the notional should be declined.

Edit: Do not allocate any air support to the Crimean attack. They have to many pluses on the die roll for it to be worth reducing the odds.

[Red Prince]

The attacks for Impulse #12:



And the results:

Attack on Dnepropetrovsk: Blitz, Fractional Odds .055 (Yes), Roll = 6-1 = 5 = */1B
Attack on USSR [58, 59]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .572 (No), Roll = 9+5 = 14 = */2B (Breakthrough)

At Dnep, the idea was sound. What I didn't count on was the ridiculously low Fractional Odds roll by the Germans. They had a 16.7% chance to move up to 6:1 odds. I didn't expect it to happen. If it hadn't, that MIL would be coming back for free next turn. That is luck, ladies and gentlemen, on the side of the Germans, screwing with the Soviets once more. [:@]
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Ran that attack before Orm suggested Ground Support to Dnep. I didn't do it, because an interception at +3/-3 in favor of Germany didn't see worth the risk just to get 3:1 odds (which would have gone to 4:1 with that roll). Even if successful, I probably still would have tried to save the MIL by using the Blitz CRT. The only difference at 4:1 odds is that the attackers would end up disorganized (based on the actual rolls).
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As you can see, in the Crimea, the answer is "No, the Ground Support would have made not a bit of difference". Part of me feels like if you go off the chart at the 13+ end, you should be able to kill something else for free. [;)] But the Germans are happy with the Breakthrough result as it stands. They get to block off Sevastapol and will be able to take the port nearby at the next possible opportunity.

So, it is time to move on and rebase some planes . . .

[composer99]

I would include the notional & send in ground support to the Crimea attack, myself. If you can get the Germans down to the 3:1 column, you have a 20% chance at getting a retreat result and disorganizing the Germans, vs a 10% chance on the 4:1 column and no chance whatsoever on the 5:1 column.

Edit: ... or not, seeing as the attack has gone forward with a stunning German victory. [:)]

[bean5671]

been trolling WIF forum for awhile now and have to say great job this looks like a hit and a must buy for me

[Red Prince]

Italy rebased another LND/ATR to Iraq, along with a FTR, and also got it's 6-factor LND to Copenhagen -- within reach of the enemy stack in Denmark. Germany rebased its last FTR in the Ukraine so that it wouldn't get overrun by the Soviets, too.

Below, this may seem like a strange choice. I decided that I won't need to rail Antonescu to the Soviet front lines (even if I get another impulse), so I decided to "double" his value as an anti-Partisan garrison by reorganizing the MTN unit. Before I did this, I checked my Oil needs this turn. As things stand, I needed 6.5 Oil to reorganize units. If the turn ends now, that means I lose half of an Oil Point unless I decide not to reorganize something. The chances for a Partisan to show up in France were higher than I'd like, mostly due to having to shift units to Denmark, so I decided I'd spend the full Oil Point and lower those chances a bit. This move drops the chances from 20% down to 16% in France. It isn't much, but it's better and it costs nothing in the end.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: bean5671

been trolling WIF forum for awhile now and have to say great job this looks like a hit and a must buy for me

Yay! Another satisfied soon-to-be customer. [:)]

Honestly, I'm glad you like what you see. At least a hundred people that I know about, and probably many more than that have worked hard to make MWiF as exciting as the table-top version. Without the enthusiasm of the forum members, I don't know if this game would ever have been possible, so let me thank you all.
[&o][&o][&o]

[Orm]

The decision to pick blitz in the Dnepropetrovsk attack may come to haunt USSR if Germany gets one more impulse this turn.